메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 81, Issue 2, 2012, Pages 644-663

Evolution of subjective hurricane risk perceptions: A Bayesian approach

Author keywords

Bayesian learning; Correlated information; Event markets; Favorite longshot bias; Hurricanes; Prediction markets; Risk perceptions

Indexed keywords


EID: 84856212404     PISSN: 01672681     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2011.10.004     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (18)

References (32)
  • 1
    • 0032435550 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Five-day tropical cyclone track forecasts in the North Atlantic basin
    • Aberson Sim D. Five-day tropical cyclone track forecasts in the North Atlantic basin. Weather Forecast. 1998, 13:1005-1015.
    • (1998) Weather Forecast. , vol.13 , pp. 1005-1015
    • Aberson, S.D.1
  • 2
    • 0004634590 scopus 로고
    • Public response to hurricane probability forecasts
    • Baker E. Public response to hurricane probability forecasts. Prof. Geogr. 1995, 47:137-147.
    • (1995) Prof. Geogr. , vol.47 , pp. 137-147
    • Baker, E.1
  • 3
    • 38049168888 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The operational GFDL coupled hurricane - ocean prediction system and a summary of its performance
    • Bender M.A., Ginis I., Tuleya R.E., Thomas B., Marchok T. The operational GFDL coupled hurricane - ocean prediction system and a summary of its performance. Monthly Weather Rev. 2007, 135:3965-3989.
    • (2007) Monthly Weather Rev. , vol.135 , pp. 3965-3989
    • Bender, M.A.1    Ginis, I.2    Tuleya, R.E.3    Thomas, B.4    Marchok, T.5
  • 5
    • 9944229865 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of flood hazards on property values: evidence before and after hurricane floyd
    • Bin O., Polasky S. Effects of flood hazards on property values: evidence before and after hurricane floyd. Land Econ. 2004, 73:490-500.
    • (2004) Land Econ. , vol.73 , pp. 490-500
    • Bin, O.1    Polasky, S.2
  • 7
    • 15244342276 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Updating subjective risks in the presence of conflicting information: an application to climate change
    • Cameron T. Updating subjective risks in the presence of conflicting information: an application to climate change. J. Risk Uncertain. 2005, 30:63-97.
    • (2005) J. Risk Uncertain. , vol.30 , pp. 63-97
    • Cameron, T.1
  • 8
    • 0001175851 scopus 로고
    • Combining overlapping information
    • Clemen R. Combining overlapping information. Manage. Sci. 1987, 33:373-380.
    • (1987) Manage. Sci. , vol.33 , pp. 373-380
    • Clemen, R.1
  • 10
    • 21744462517 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using expectations data to study subjective income expectations
    • Dominitz J., Manski C. Using expectations data to study subjective income expectations. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 1997, 92:855-867.
    • (1997) J. Am. Stat. Assoc. , vol.92 , pp. 855-867
    • Dominitz, J.1    Manski, C.2
  • 11
    • 4444357184 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Beta regression for modelling rates and proportions
    • Ferrari S., Cribari-Neto F. Beta regression for modelling rates and proportions. J. Appl. Stat. 2004, 31:799-815.
    • (2004) J. Appl. Stat. , vol.31 , pp. 799-815
    • Ferrari, S.1    Cribari-Neto, F.2
  • 12
    • 0028665936 scopus 로고
    • Gender, race, and perception of environmental-health risks
    • Flynn J., Slovic P., Mertz C. Gender, race, and perception of environmental-health risks. Risk Anal. 1994, 14:1101-1108.
    • (1994) Risk Anal. , vol.14 , pp. 1101-1108
    • Flynn, J.1    Slovic, P.2    Mertz, C.3
  • 13
    • 0142227063 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Trends in track forecasting for tropical cyclones threatening the United States, 1970-2001
    • Franklin J., McAdie C., Lawrence M. Trends in track forecasting for tropical cyclones threatening the United States, 1970-2001. Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 2003, 84(9):1197-1203.
    • (2003) Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. , vol.84 , Issue.9 , pp. 1197-1203
    • Franklin, J.1    McAdie, C.2    Lawrence, M.3
  • 15
    • 38449094322 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Logarithmic market scoring rules for modular combinatorial information aggregation
    • Hanson R. Logarithmic market scoring rules for modular combinatorial information aggregation. J. Predict. Markets 2007, 1:3-15.
    • (2007) J. Predict. Markets , vol.1 , pp. 3-15
    • Hanson, R.1
  • 16
    • 0033853199 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating preferences under risk: the case of racetrack bettors
    • Jullien B., Salanie B. Estimating preferences under risk: the case of racetrack bettors. J. Polit. Econ. 2000, 108:503-530.
    • (2000) J. Polit. Econ. , vol.108 , pp. 503-530
    • Jullien, B.1    Salanie, B.2
  • 17
    • 73849099761 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian learning and the pricing of new information: evidence from prediction markets
    • Lee D., Moretti E. Bayesian learning and the pricing of new information: evidence from prediction markets. Am. Econ. Rev. 2009, 99:330-336.
    • (2009) Am. Econ. Rev. , vol.99 , pp. 330-336
    • Lee, D.1    Moretti, E.2
  • 18
    • 21144475085 scopus 로고
    • Consistent estimation of a mixing distribution
    • Leroux B.G. Consistent estimation of a mixing distribution. Ann. Stat. 1992, 20:1350-1360.
    • (1992) Ann. Stat. , vol.20 , pp. 1350-1360
    • Leroux, B.G.1
  • 19
    • 84856231504 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • NHC (National Hurricane Center), Hurricane Season Tropical Cyclone Reports (all reports from 2000-6)
    • NHC (National Hurricane Center), 2008. Hurricane Season Tropical Cyclone Reports (all reports from 2000-6), http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml.
    • (2008)
  • 21
    • 33746884704 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Information regulation: do the victims of externalities pay attention?
    • Oberholzer F., Mitsunari M. Information regulation: do the victims of externalities pay attention?. J. Regul. Econ. 2006, 30:141-158.
    • (2006) J. Regul. Econ. , vol.30 , pp. 141-158
    • Oberholzer, F.1    Mitsunari, M.2
  • 22
    • 10344224453 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Maximum likelihood estimation of models with beta-distributed dependent variables
    • Paulino P. Maximum likelihood estimation of models with beta-distributed dependent variables. Polit. Anal. 2001, 9:325-346.
    • (2001) Polit. Anal. , vol.9 , pp. 325-346
    • Paulino, P.1
  • 23
    • 0001464325 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tropical cyclone landfall forecasts in the Atlantic basin (1976-2000)
    • Powell M., Aberson S. Tropical cyclone landfall forecasts in the Atlantic basin (1976-2000). Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. 2001, 82:2749-2767.
    • (2001) Bull. Am. Meteor. Soc. , vol.82 , pp. 2749-2767
    • Powell, M.1    Aberson, S.2
  • 24
    • 0039783802 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Longevity expectations and death: can people predict their own demise?
    • Smith V., Taylor D., Sloan F. Longevity expectations and death: can people predict their own demise?. Am. Econ. Rev. 2001, 91:1126-1134.
    • (2001) Am. Econ. Rev. , vol.91 , pp. 1126-1134
    • Smith, V.1    Taylor, D.2    Sloan, F.3
  • 27
    • 0038980036 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Alarmist decisions with divergent risk information
    • Viscusi W. Alarmist decisions with divergent risk information. Econ. J. 1997, 107:1657-1670.
    • (1997) Econ. J. , vol.107 , pp. 1657-1670
    • Viscusi, W.1
  • 28
    • 21144482737 scopus 로고
    • Bayesian decisions with ambiguous belief aversion
    • Viscusi W., Magat W. Bayesian decisions with ambiguous belief aversion. J. Risk Uncertain. 1992, 5:371-387.
    • (1992) J. Risk Uncertain. , vol.5 , pp. 371-387
    • Viscusi, W.1    Magat, W.2
  • 29
    • 0001412551 scopus 로고
    • Adaptive responses to chemical labeling: are workers bayesian decision makers?
    • Viscusi W., O'Connor C. Adaptive responses to chemical labeling: are workers bayesian decision makers?. Am. Econ. Rev. 1984, 74:942-956.
    • (1984) Am. Econ. Rev. , vol.74 , pp. 942-956
    • Viscusi, W.1    O'Connor, C.2
  • 31
    • 73849145557 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interpreting prediction market prices as probabilities
    • Wolfers J., Zitzewitz E. Interpreting prediction market prices as probabilities. NBER Working Paper number 2006, 12200.
    • (2006) NBER Working Paper number , pp. 12200
    • Wolfers, J.1    Zitzewitz, E.2
  • 32
    • 0002149921 scopus 로고
    • Combining overlapping information
    • Zeckhauser R. Combining overlapping information. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 1971, 66:91-92.
    • (1971) J. Am. Stat. Assoc. , vol.66 , pp. 91-92
    • Zeckhauser, R.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.