A flood pulse driven fish population model for the Okavango Delta, Botswana

Ecological Modelling

Volumn 228, Issue , 2012, Pages 27-38

  Linhoss, Anna Cathey ^a   Muñoz Carpena, Rafael ^a   Allen, Micheal S ^b   Kiker, Gregory ^a   Mosepele, Ketlhatlogile ^c  

^a University of Florida   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF BOTSWANA   (Botswana)

Author keywords

Fisheries model; Flood pulse; Monte Carlo filtering; Okavango; Sensitivity analysis; Uncertainty analysis

Indexed keywords

BOTSWANA; ECOLOGICAL RELATIONSHIPS; FISH POPULATION DYNAMICS; FISH POPULATIONS; FISHERIES MODELS; FLOOD PULSE; GLOBAL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; INFORMED DECISION; MODEL PARAMETERS; MODEL RESULTS; MODELING STUDIES; MONTE CARLO FILTERING; OKAVANGO; OKAVANGO DELTA; OKAVANGO DELTA , BOTSWANA; OPTIMAL MODEL PERFORMANCE; OUTPUT VARIABILITY; POLISHING PARAMETERS; PULSED SYSTEMS; QUANTITATIVE INFORMATION; REFINED MODEL; SCALING FACTORS;

ECOLOGY; INFORMATION MANAGEMENT; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; MONTE CARLO METHODS; POLISHING; POPULATION DYNAMICS; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

FISHERIES;

DECISION MAKING; ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING; FISH; FISHERY MANAGEMENT; FLOOD; HYDROLOGY; MAGNITUDE; MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS; MORTALITY; POPULATION MODELING; RECRUITMENT (POPULATION DYNAMICS); SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; VULNERABILITY;

BOTSWANA; NGAMILAND; OKAVANGO DELTA;

EID: 84855882453     PISSN: 03043800     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2011.12.022     Document Type: Article

References (71)

1. Agostinho A.A., Gomes L.C., Veríssimo S., K. Okada E. Flood regime, dam regulation and fish in the Upper Paraná River: effects on assemblage attributes, reproduction and recruitment. Rev. Fish Biol. Fish. 2004, 14:11-19.
2. Allen M.S., Brown P., Douglas J., Fulton W., Catalano M. An assessment of recreational fishery harvest policies for Murray cod in southeast Australia. Fish. Res. 2009, 95:260.
3. Bailly D., Agostinho A.A., Suzuki H.I. Influence of the flood regime on the reproduction of fish species with different reproductive strategies in the Cuiabá River, Upper Pantanal, Brazil. River Res. Appl. 2008, 24:1218-1229.
4. Bayley P.B. The flood pulse advantage and the restoration of river-floodplain systems. Regul. Rivers Res. Manage. 1991, 6:75-86.
5. Beven K. Prophesy, reality and uncertainty in distributed hydrological modelling. Adv. Water Res. 1993, 16:41-51.
6. Beven K., Binley A. The future of distributed models: model calibration and uncertainty prediction. Hydrol. Process. 1992, 6:279-298.
7. Beven K., Freer J. Equifinality, data assimilation, and uncertainty estimation in mechanistic modelling of complex environmental systems using the GLUE methodology. J. Hydrol. 2001, 249:11-29.
8. Beverton, R.J.H., Holt, S.J., 1957. On the Dynamics of Exploited Fish Populations. 533M. Stationery Office, London, H, 533 p.
9. Booth A.J., Merron G.S. The age and growth of the greenhead tilapia Oreochromis macrochir (Pisces: Cichlidae) from the Okavango Delta, Botswana. Hydrobiologia 1996, 321:29-34.
10. Booth A.J., Merron G.S., Burton C.D. The Growth of Oreochromis-Andersonii (Pisces, Cichlidae) from the Okavango Delta, Botswana, and a comparison of the scale and otolith methods of aging. Environ. Biol. Fish. 1995, 43:171-178.
11. Borgstrom R. Effect of population-density on gillnet catchability in 4 allopatric populations of brown trout (Salmo-Trutta). Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 1992, 49:1539-1545.
12. Chandrasoma J., Desilva S.S. Reproductive biology of Puntius-sarana, an indigenous species, and Tilapia-rendalli (Melanopleura), an exotic, in an ancient man-made lake in Sri Lanka. Fish. Manage. 1981, 12:17-28.
13. Chu-Agor M.L., Muñoz-Carpena R., Kiker G., Emanuelsson A., Linkov I. Exploring vulnerability of coastal habitats to sea level rise through global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses. Environ. Model. Softw. 2011, 26:593-604.
14. Cukier R.I., Levine H.B., Shuler K.E. Nonlinear sensitivity analysis of multiparameter model systems. J. Comput. Phys. 1978, 26:1-42.
15. de Graaf G.J., Dekker P.J., Huisman B., Verreth J.A.J. Simulation of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) culture in ponds, through individual-based modelling, using a population dynamic approach. Aquacult. Res. 2005, 36:455-471.
16. Deangelis D.L., Loftus W.F., Trexler J.C., Ulanowicz R.E. Modeling fish dynamics and effects of stress in a hydrologically pulsed ecosystem. J. Aquat. Ecosyst. Stress Recov. 1997, 6:1-13.
17. Dudley R.G. Growth of Tilapia of the Kafue Floodplain, Zambia: predicted effects of the Kafue Gorge Dam. Trans. Am. Fish. Soc. 1974, 103:281-291.
18. Fielder D.G. Relationship between Walleye fingerling stocking density and recruitment in lower Lake Oahe, South Dakota. N. Am. J. Fish. Manage. 1992, 12:346-352.
19. Fox G.A., Muñoz-Carpena R., Sabbagh G.J. Influence of flow concentration on parameter importance and prediction uncertainty of pesticide trapping by vegetative filter strips. J. Hydrol. 2010, 384:164-173.
20. Gaff H., Chick J., Trexler J., DeAngelis D., Gross L., Salinas R. Evaluation of and insights from ALFISH: a spatially explicit, landscape-level simulation of fish populations in the Everglades. Hydrobiologia 2004, 520:73-87.
21. Garrod D.J. An estimation of the mortality rates in a population of Tilapia-Esculenta Graham (Pisces, Cichlidae) in Lake Victoria, East Africa. J. Fish. Res. Board Can. 1963, 20:195-227.
22. Getabu A. Growth-parameters and total mortality in Oreochromis-Niloticus (Linnaeus) from Nyanza Gulf, Lake Victoria. Hydrobiologia 1992, 232:91-97.
23. Goodwin N.B., Grant A., Perry A.L., Dulvy N.K., Reynolds J.D. Life history correlates of density-dependent recruitment in marine fishes. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 2006, 63:494-509.
24. Goodyear, C.P., 1977. Assessing the impact of power plant mortality on the compensatory reserve of fish populations. In: Proceedings of the Conference on Assessing the Effects of Power-Plant-Induced Mortality on Fish Populations. Gatlinburg, Tennessee, p 185-194.
25. Hansson S., Rudstam L.G. Gillnet catches as an estimate of fish abundance: a comparison between vertical gillnet catches and hydroacoustic abundances of Baltic Sea herring (Clupea harengus) and sprat (Sptattus sptattus). Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 1995, 52:75-83.
26. Hay, C.J., Naesje, T.F., Breistein, J., Harsaker, K., Kolding, J., Sandlund, O.T. and Zyl, B.v., 2000. Fish populations, gill net selectivity and artisanal fisheries in the Okavango River, Namibia. Recommendations for a sustainable fishery. NINA-NIKU Project Rep. 10, 1-105.
27. Hoberg P., Lindholm M., Ramberg L., Hessen D.O. Aquatic food web dynamics on a floodplain in the Okavango delta, Botswana. Hydrobiologia 2002, 470:23-30.
28. Hodgkiss I.J., Man H.S.H. Stock density and mortality assessment of Sarotherodon mossambicus (Cichlidae) in Plover Cove Reservoir, Hong Kong. Environ. Biol. Fish. 1977, 1:171-180.
29. Jawitz, J.W., Muñoz-Carpena, R., Stuart, M., Grace, K.A., 2008. Development, testing, and sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of a transport and reaction simulation engine (TaRSE) for spatially distributed modeling of phosphorus in south Florida peat marsh wetlands. U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2008-5029, 109 p.
30. Junk W.J., Bayley P.B., Sparks R.E. The flood pulse concept in river-floodplain systems. Can. Spl. Publ. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 1989, 106:110-127.
31. Kgathi D.L., Mmopelwa G., Mosepele K. Natural resources assessment in the Okavango Delta, Botswana: case studies of some key resources. Nat. Resour. Forum 2005, 29:70-81.
32. King, J.M., Tharme, R.E., Brown, C.A., 1999. Definition and implementation of instream flows. Thematic Report for the World Commission on Dams. Cape Town, South Africa.
33. King A.J., Humphries P., Lake P.S. Fish recruitment on floodplains: the roles of patterns of flooding and life history characteristics. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 2003, 60:773-786.
34. Koda M., Mcrae G.J., Seinfeld J.H. Automatic sensitivity analysis of kinetic mechanisms. Int. J. Chem. Kinet. 1979, 11:427-444.
35. Lorenzen K. The relationship between body weight and natural mortality in juvenile and adult fish: a comparison of natural ecosystems and aquaculture. J. Fish Biol. 1996, 49:627-647.
36. Lorenzen, K., 2001. Using population models to assess culture-based fisheries: a brief review with an application to the analysis of stocking experiments. In: De Silva S.S. (Ed.), Reservoir and Culture-Based Fisheries: Biology and Management, ACIAR Proceedings 98, 257-265.
37. von Bertalanffy L. Quantitative laws in metabolism and growth. Q.Rev.Biol. 1957, 32:217-231.
38. Marshall B.E. Observations on the breeding biology of Sarotherodon macrochir (Boulenger) in Lake Mcilwaine, Rhodesia. J. Fish Biol. 1979, 14:419-424.
39. Mcgurk M.D. Natural mortality of marine pelagic fish eggs and larvae - role of spatial patchiness. Mar. Ecol.-Prog. Ser. 1986, 34:227-242.
40. Merona B., Gascuel D. The effects of flood regime and fishing effort on the overall abundance of an exploited fish community in the Amazon floodplain. Aquat. Living Resour. 1993, 6:97-108.
41. Merron, G.S., 1991. The ecology and management of the fishes of the Okavango Delta, Botswana, with particular reference to the role of the seasonal flood. Unpublished PhD thesis. Rhodes University.
42. Mertens J., Stenger R., Barkle G.F. Multiobjective inverse modeling for soil parameter estimation and model verification. Vadose Zone J. 2006, 5:917-933.
43. Mortimer, M.A.E., 1960. Observations on the biology of Tilapia andersonii (Castelnau), (Pisees, Cichlidae), in Northern Rhodesia. Joint Fisheries Research Organization Annual Report. Lusaka 9, pp. 41-67.
44. Mosepele, K., 2001. Preliminary description of the Okavango Delta fishery. Unpublished technical report. Fisheries Section, Ministry of Agriculture, Gaborone, Botswana.
45. Mosepele, K., 2009. Okavango river basin technical diagnostic analysis: environmental flow module specialist report. Country: Botswana, Discipline: Fish. OKACOM Project Management Unit, Luanda, Angola.
46. Mosepele K., Kolding J. Fish stock assessment in the Okavango Delta: preliminary results from a length based analysis. Proceedings of the Environmental Monitoring of Tropical and Subtropical Wetlands Conference, 4-8 December, 2002 2003, 363-390. Harry Oppenheimer Okavango Research Centre, University of Botswana, Maun, Botswana. T. Bernard, K. Mosepele, L. Ramberg (Eds.).
47. Mosepele K., Mmopelwa T.G., Mosepele B. Characterization and monitoring of the Okavango Delta artisanal fishery. Proceedings of the Environmental Monitoring of Tropical and Subtropical Wetlands Conference, 4-8 December, 2002 2003, Harry Oppenheimer Okavango Research Centre, University of Botswana, Maun, Botswana. T. Bernard, K. Mosepele, L. Ramberg (Eds.).
48. Mosepele K., Moyle P.B., Merron G.S., Purkey D.R., Mosepele B. Fish, Floods, and ecosystem engineers: aquatic conservation in the Okavango Delta, Botswana. Bioscience 2009, 59:53-64.
49. Mosepele K., Nengu S. Growth, mortality maturity and length-weight parameters of selected fishes of the Okavango Delta, Botswana. ACP-EU Fish. Res. Rep. 2003, 14:67-74.
50. Muñoz-Carpena R., Zajac Z., Kuo Y.M. Global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of the water quality model VFSMOD-W. Trans. ASABE 2007, 50:1719-1732.
51. Muñoz-Carpena R., Fox G.A., Sabbagh G.J. Parameter importance and uncertainty in predicting runoff pesticide reduction with filter strips. J. Environ. Qual. 2010, 39:630-641.
52. Myers R.A., Bowen K.G., Barrowman N.J. Maximum reproductive rate of fish at low population sizes. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 1999, 56:2404-2419.
53. Naesje, T.F., Hay, C.J., Nickanor, N., Koekemoer, J.H., Strand, R.L., Throstand, E.B., 2004. Fish populations, gill net catches, and gill net selectivity in the Kwando River, Namibia. NINA project number 27, pp. 1-64.
54. Nash J.E., Sutcliffe J.V. River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I-a discussion of principles. J. Hydrol. 1970, 10:282-290.
55. Peterson I., Wroblewski J.S. Mortality-rate of fishes in the pelagic ecosystem. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 1984, 41:1117-1120.
56. Ritter, A., Muñoz-Carpena, R., Regalado, C.M. Prediction ability of mathematical models: objective assessment of goodness-of-fit with statistical significance. Water Resour. Res., submitted for publication.
57. Rogers M.W., Allen M.S., Brown P., Hunt T., Fulton W., Ingram B.A. A simulation model to explore the relative value of stock enhancement versus harvest regulations for fishery sustainability. Ecol. Model. 2010, 221:919-926.
58. Saltelli A., Tarantola S., Chan K.P. A quantitative model-independent method for global sensitivity analysis of model output. Technometrics 1999, 41:39-56.
59. Saltelli A., Ratto M., Andres T., Campolongo F., Cariboni J., Gatelli D., Saisana M., Tarantola S. Global Sensitivity Analysis: the Primer 2008, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., Sussex, England.
60. SimLab, 2011. Software Package for Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis. Joint Research Centre of the European Commission. Downloadable for free at: http://simlab.jrc.ec.europa.eu/.
61. Skelton P.H. A Complete Guide to the Freshwater Fishes of Southern Africa 1993, Southern Book Publishers, Halfway House, South Africa.
62. Tharme R.E. A global perspective on environmental flow assessment: emerging trends in the development and application of environmental flow methodologies for rivers. River Res. Appl. 2003, 19:397-442.
63. Tharme, R.E., King, J.M., 1998. Development of the building block methodology for instream flow assessments, and supporting research on the effects of different magnitude flows on riverine ecosystems. Water Research Commission Report No. 576/1/98.
64. Tockner K., Malard F., Ward J.V. An extension of the flood pulse concept. Hydrol. Process. 2000, 14:2861-2883.
65. Tweddle D., Turner J.L. Age, growth and natural mortality-rates of some cichlid fishes of Lake Malawi. J. Fish Biol. 1977, 10:385-398.
66. Van der Waal, B.C.W., 1976. 'n Visekologiese studie van die Liamnezimeer in die Oos-Caprivi met verwysing na visontginning deur die Bantoebevolking. PhD Thesis. Rand Afrikaans University, South Africa. 192 p. (In Afrikaans).
67. Walters C.J., Hilborn R., Christensen V. Surplus production dynamics in declining and recovering fish populations. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 2008, 65:2536-2551.
68. Walters C.J., Hilborn R., Parrish R. An equilibrium model for predicting the efficacy of marine protected areas in coastal environments. Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 2007, 64:1009-1018.
69. Walters C.J., Martell S.J.D. Fisheries Ecology and Management 2004, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, p. 399.
70. Wolski P., Savenije H.H.G., Murray-Hudson M., Gumbricht T. Modelling of the flooding in the Okavango Delta, Botswana, using a hybrid reservoir-GIS model. J. Hydrol. 2006, 331:58-72.
71. Zeug S.C., Winemiller K.O. Relationships between hydrology, spatial heterogeneity, and fish recruitment dynamics in a temperate floodplain river. River Res. Appl. 2008, 24:90-102.