Evaluation of future flow variability in ungauged basins: Validation of combined methods

Advances in Water Resources

Volumn 35, Issue , 2012, Pages 121-140

  Samuel, Jos ^a   Coulibaly, Paulin ^a   Metcalfe, Robert A ^b  

^a MCMASTER UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

^b TRENT UNIVERSITY   (Canada)

Author keywords

Baseflow; Bias correction; Climate change; Continuous streamflow; Regional climate models; Ungauged basins

Indexed keywords

BASEFLOWS; BIAS CORRECTION; COMBINED METHOD; DAILY TEMPERATURES; DATA LIMITATIONS; DOWN-SCALING; FLOW VARIABILITY; GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL; HYDROLOGIC MODELS; MULTI-MODEL; OBSERVED DATA; ONTARIO; RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS; REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS; RELIABLE ESTIMATES; SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY; UNGAUGED BASINS; WATER RESOURCES DEVELOPMENT;

CLIMATE CHANGE; RUNOFF; STREAM FLOW; TIME SERIES; WATER RESOURCES;

CLIMATE MODELS;

BASEFLOW; BASIN; CLIMATE MODELING; DOWNSCALING; RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING; REGIONAL CLIMATE; REGIONALIZATION; RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT; STREAMFLOW; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WATER RESOURCE;

EID: 83755219410     PISSN: 03091708     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.advwatres.2011.09.015     Document Type: Article

References (45)

1. Barrow E.M., Maxwell B., Gachon P. Climate variability and change in Canada: past, present and future. ACSD science assessment series no. 2, Meteorological service of Canada 2004, Environment Canada, Ontario.
2. Boberg F, Berg P, Thejll P, Christensen JH. Analysis of temporal changes in precipitation intensities using PRUDENCE data. Danish: Danish Climate Center Report, 07-03; 2007.
3. Chang C, Fiona A, Damaia S, Mann W. Ontario flow assessment techniques version 1.0, user's manual. Northeast science and information section. Ontario: Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources; 2002.
4. Conover W.J. Practical nonparametric statistics 1980, Wiley, New York.
5. Data Access Integration (DAI) CGCM3 Predictors. Sets of predictor variables derived from CGCM3 T47 and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, version 1.1. Montreal, QC, Canada; April 2008.
6. Dibike Y.B., Coulibaly P. Hydrologic impact of climate change in the Saguenay watershed: comparison of downscaling methods and hydrologic models. J Hydrol 2005, 307(1-4):145-163.
7. Dibike Y.B., Gachon P., St-Hilaire A., Ouarda T.B.M.J., Nguyen V.T.V. Uncertainty analysis of statistically downscaled temperature and precipitation regimes in Northern Canada. Theor Appl Climatol 2008, 91:149-170. 10.1007/s00704-007-0299-z.
8. Environment Canada. HYDAT CD-ROM version 2.04: surface water and sediment data. Environment Canada; 2004.
9. Feddersen H., Andersen U. A method for statistical downscaling of seasonal ensemble predictions. Tellus 2005, 57A:398-408.
10. Fowler H.J., Kilsby C.G. Using regional climate model data to simulate historical and future river flows in northwest England. Climatic Change 2007, 80(3-4):337-367.
11. Fowler H.J., Blenkinsop S., Tebaldi C. Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling. Int J Climatol 2007, 27:1547-1578.
12. Hansen J.W., Challinor, Ines A., Wheeler T., Moron V. Translating forecasts into agricultural terms: advances and challenges. Clim Res 2006, 33:27-41.
13. Ines A.V.M., Hansen J.W. Bias correction of daily GCM rainfall for crop simulation studies. Agric For Meteorol 2006, 138:44-53.
14. IPCC (Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change). Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. In: Parry M, Canziani O, Palutikof J, Linden PVL, Hanson C. editors. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the IPCC. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press; 2007a.
15. IPCC (Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change). Climate change 2007: The physical science basis. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Marquis M, Averyt K, Tignor MMB, Miller HL, Chen Z. editors. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the IPCC. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, USA; 2007b.
16. Kalnay E., Kanamitsu M., Kistler R., Collins W., Deaven D., Gandin L., et al. The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 1996, 77:437-471.
17. Khan M.S., Coulibaly P., Dibike Y. Uncertainty analysis of statistical downscaling methods. J Hydrol 2006, 319(1-4):57-382.
18. Kim S.J., Flato G.M., Boer G.J., McFarlane N.A. A coupled climate model simulation of the last glacial maximum. Part 1: Transient multi-decadal response. Clim Dynam 2002, 19:515-537.
19. Kim S.J., Flato G.M., Boer G.J. A coupled climate model simulation of the last glacial maximum. Part: 2 Approach to equilibrium. Clim Dynam 2003, 20:635-661.
20. Kistler R., Kalnay E., Collins W., Saha S., White G., Woollen J., et al. The NCEP/NCAR 50-year reanalysis: monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 2001, 82(2):247-267.
21. Kundzewicz Z.W., Stakhivc E.Z. Are climate models "ready for prime time" in water resources management applications, or is more research needed?. Hydrol Sci J 2010, 55:1085-1089. 10.1080/02626667.2010.51321.
22. Leander R., Buishand T.A. Re-sampling of regional climate model output for the simulation of extreme river flows. J Hydrol 2007, 332(3-4):487-496.
23. Lenderink G., Buishand A., Deursen W.V. Estimates of future discharges of the river Rhine using two scenario methodologies: direct versus delta approach. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 2007, 11(3):1145-1159.
24. Maurer E.P., Hidalgo H.G. Utility of daily vs. monthly large-scale climate data: an intercomparison of two statistical downscaling methods. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 2008, 12:551-563.
25. McGregor J.J. Regional climate modelling. Meteorol Atmos Phys 1997, 63:105-117.
26. Mearns LO. et al., updated 2011. The North American regional climate change assessment program dataset. National center for atmospheric research earth system grid data portal, Boulder, CO. Data downloaded 2011-04-18; 2007.
27. Mearns L.O., Gutowski W.J., Jones R., Leung L.Y., McGinnis S., Nunes A.M.B., et al. A regional climate change assessment program for North America. EOS 2009, 90:36, 311-312.
28. Mishra A.K., Coulibaly P. Hydrometric network evaluation for Canadian watersheds. J Hydrol 2010, 380:420-437.
29. Mpelasoka F.S., Chiew F.H.S. Influence of Rainfall Scenario Construction Methods on Runoff Projections. J. Hydrometeor 2009, 10:1168-1183. 10.1175/2009JHM1045.
30. Nathan R.J., McMahon T.A. Evaluation of automated techniques for base flow and recession analyses. Water Resour Res 1990, 26:1465-1473.
31. Payne J.T., Wood A.W., Hamlet A.F., Palmer R.N., Lettenmaier D.P. Mitigating the effects of climate change on the water resources of the Columbia River Basin. Clim Change 2004, 62:233-256.
32. Rao R., Hamed K.H. Flood frequency analysis 2000, CRC Press.
33. Samuel J.M., Coulibaly P., Metcalfe R. Estimation of continuous streamflow in Ontario ungauged Basins: Comparison of regionalization methods. ASCE J Hydrol Eng 2011, 16(5):447-459.
34. Samuel JM, Coulibaly P, Metcalfe R. Identification of rainfall runoff model for improved baseflow estimation in ungauged basin. Hydrol Process; in press, doi: doi:10.1002/hyp.8133.
35. Sennikovs J, Bethers U. Statistical downscaling method of regional climate model results for hydrological modeling. In: 18th World IMACS/MODSIM congress, Cairns, Australia; 2009.
36. Sharma D., Gupta A.D., Babel M.S. Spatial disaggregation of bias corrected GCM precipitation for improved hydrologic simulation: Ping river basin, Thailand. Hydrol Earth Sys Sci 2007, 11(4):1373-1390.
37. Sharma M., Coulibaly P., Dibike Y.B. Assessing the need for downscaling RCM data for hydrologic impact study. ASCE J Hydrol Eng 2011, 16(6):534-539.
38. Sharma M. Comparison of downscaled RCM and GCM data for hydrologic impact assessment 2009, Department of Civil Engineering, McMaster University, Hamilton.
39. Shepard D. A two-dimensional interpolation function for irregularly-spaced data. In: Proceedings of the 1968 ACM national conference; 1968. p. 517-24, doi: doi:10.1145/800186.810616.
40. SMHI. Integrated hydrological modelling system (IHMS), Manual version 5.8. Norrkoping: SMHI; 2005.
41. Trenberth K.E., Dai A., Rasmussen R.M., Parsons D. The changing character of precipitation. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 2003, 84:1205-1217. 10.1175/BAMS-84-9-120.
42. Wilby R.L., Dawson C.W., Barrow E.M. SDSM - a decision support tool for the assessment of regional climate change impacts. Environ Modell Softw 2002, 17:145-157.
43. Wilby R.L., Dawson C.W. Using SDSM version 3.1 - a decision support tool for the assessment of regional climate change impacts 2004, King's College London, London, UK.
44. Wilby R.L., Hay L.E., Gutowski W.J., Arritt R.W., Takle E.S., Pan Z., et al. Hydrological responses to dynamically and statistically downscaled climate model output. Geophys Res Lett 2000, 27(8):1199-1202.
45. Wood A.W., Leung L.R., Sridhar V., Lettenmaier D.P. Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs. Clim Change 2004, 62:189-216.