Pandemic influenza H1N1: Reconciling serosurvey data with estimates of the reproduction number

Epidemiology

Volumn 23, Issue 1, 2012, Pages 86-94

  Glass, Kathryn ^a   Kelly, Heath ^a,b   Mercer, Geoffry Norman ^a  

^a The Australian National University   (Australia)

^b VICTORIAN INFECTIOUS DISEASES REFERENCE LABORATORY   (Australia)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AGE DISTRIBUTION; ARTICLE; DATA ANALYSIS; HUMAN; INFLUENZA A (H1N1); MATHEMATICAL MODEL; PANDEMIC; PANDEMIC INFLUENZA; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SEROPREVALENCE;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AGE FACTORS; CHILD; CHILD, PRESCHOOL; HUMANS; INFANT; INFLUENZA A VIRUS, H1N1 SUBTYPE; INFLUENZA, HUMAN; MIDDLE AGED; MODELS, STATISTICAL; PANDEMICS; SEROEPIDEMIOLOGIC STUDIES; YOUNG ADULT;

EID: 83655201184     PISSN: 10443983     EISSN: 15315487     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e31823a44a5     Document Type: Article

References (104)

1. Boëlle PY, Bernillon P, Desenclos JC. A preliminary estimation of the reproduction ratio for new influenza A (H1N1) from the outbreak in Mexico, March-April 2009. Euro Surveill. 2001;14:19205. Available at: http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId-19205.
2. Chan PP, Subramony H, Hwang SJ, et al. Outbreak of novel influenza A (H1N1-2009) linked to a dance club. Ann Acad Med Singapore. 2010;39:299-302.
3. Cowling BJ, Lau MSY, Fang VJ, et al. The effective reproduction number of pandemic influenza: prospective estimation. Epidemiology. 2010;21:842-846.
4. de Silva UC, Warachit J, Waicharoen S, Chittaganpitch M. A preliminary analysis of the epidemiology of influenza A(H1N1)v virus infection in Thailand from early outbreak data, June-July 2009. Euro Surveill. 2009; 14:19292. Available at: http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle. aspx?ArticleId-19292.
5. White LF, Wallinga J, Finelli L, et al. Estimation of the reproductive number and the serial interval in early phase of the 2009 influenza A/H1N1 pandemic in the USA. Influenza Other Respi Viruses. 2009; 3:267-276.
6. Fraser C, Donnelly CA, Cauchemez S, et al. Pandemic potential of a strain of influenza A (H1N1): early findings. Science. 2009;324:1557-1561.
7. Hens N, Ranst MV, Aerts M, Robesyn E, Van Damme P, Beutels P. Estimating the effective reproduction number for pandemic influenza from notification data made publicly available in real time: A multicountry analysis for influenza A/H1N1v 2009. Vaccine. 2011;29:896-904.
8. Hsieh YH, Fisman DN, Wu J. On epidemic modelling in real time: An application to the novel A (H1N1) influenza outbreak in Canada. BMC Res Notes. 2010;3:283. doi:10.1186/1756-0500-3-283.
9. Hsieh YH. Pandemic influenza A (H1N1) during winter influenza season in the southern hemisphere. Influenza Other Respi Viruses. 2010;4:187-197.
10. Kelly HA, Mercer GN, Fielding JE, et al. Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza community transmission was established in one Australian state when the virus was first identified in North America. PLoS One. 2009;5:11341. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0011341.
11. Lee VJ, Yap J, Cook AR, et al. Oseltamivir ring prophylaxis for containment of 2009 H1N1 influenza outbreaks. N Engl J Med. 2010; 362:2166-2174.
12. Lessler J, dos Santos T, Aguilera X, et al. H1N1pdm in the Americas. Epidemics. 2010;2:132-138.
13. Lessler J, Reich NG, Cummings DAT. Outbreak of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) at a New York city school. N Engl J Med. 2009;361:2628-2636.
14. McBryde ES, Bergeri I, van Gemert C, et al. Early transmission characteristics of influenza A(H1N1)v in Australia: Victorian state, 16 May-3 June 2009. Euro Surveill. 2009;14:19363. Available at: http://www. eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId-19363.
15. Munayco CV, Gómez J, Laguna-Torres VA, et al. Epidemiological and transmissibility analysis of influenza A(H1N1)v in a southern hemisphere setting: Peru. Euro Surveill. 2009;14:19299. Available at: http://www. eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId-19299.
16. Nishiura H, Castillo-Chavez C, Safan M, Chowell G. Transmission potential of the new influenza A(H1N1) virus and its age-specificity in Japan. Euro Surveill. 2009;14:19227. Available at: http://www. eurosurveillance.org/ ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId-19227.
17. Nishiura H, Chowell G, Safan M, Castillo-Chavez C. Pros and cons of estimating the reproduction number from early epidemic growth rate of influenza A(H1N1) 2009. Theor Biol Med Model. 2010;7:1-9.
18. Nishiura H, Wilson N, Baker MG. Estimating the reproduction number of the novel influenza A virus (H1N1) in a southern hemisphere setting: preliminary estimate in New Zealand. N Z Med J. 2009;122:1-5.
19. Paine S, Mercer GN, Kelly PM, et al. Transmissibility of pandemic influenza A(H1N1)v during the 2009 influenza season in New Zealand: determining the effective reproduction number and the influence of age, ethnicity and importations. Euro Surveill. 2010;15:19591. Available at: http://www. eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId-19591.
20. Pedroni E, Garcia M, Espinola V, et al. Outbreak of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1), Los Lagos, Chile, April-June 2009. Euro Surveill. 2010;15:19456. Available at: http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle. aspx?ArticleId-19456.
21. Pourbohloul B, Ahued A, Davoudi B, et al. Initial human transmission dynamics of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus in North America. Influenza Other Respi Viruses. 2009;3:215-222.
22. Renault P, D'Ortenzio E, Kermarec F, Filleul L. Pandemic influenza 2009 on Reunion Island: a mild wave linked to a low reproduction number. PLoS Curr. 2010:PMC2808401.
23. Sugimoto JD, Borse NN, Ta ML, et al. The effect of age on transmis-sion of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in a camp and associated households. Epidemiology. 2011;22:180-187.
24. Tang S, Xiao Y, Yang Y, Zhou Y, Wu J, Ma Z. Community-based measures for mitigating the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in China. PLoS One. 2010;5:10911. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0010911.
25. Tuite AR, Greer AL, Whelan M, et al. Estimated epidemiologic parameters and morbidity associated with pandemic H1N1 influenza. Canadian Med J. 2010;182:131-136.
26. Ferguson NM, Cummings DAT, Cauchemez S, et al. Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in southeast Asia. Nature. 2005;437:209-214. (Pubitemid 41294478)
27. Carrat F, Luong J, Lao H, Salle AV, Lajaunie C, Wackemagel H. A 'small-world-like' model for comparing interventions aimed at preventing and controlling influenza pandemics. BMC Med. 2006;4:26. doi:10.1186/1741-7015-4-26. (Pubitemid 44650580)
28. Roberts MG, Baker M, Jennings LC, Sertsou G, Wilson N. A model for the spread and control of pandemic influenza in an isolated geographical region. J Roy Soc Interface. 2007;4:325-330. (Pubitemid 46513062)
29. Glass K, Barnes B. How much would closing schools reduce transmission during an influenza pandemic? Epidemiology. 2007;18:623-628. (Pubitemid 47263039)
30. Nishiura H, Roberts MG. Estimation of the reproduction number for 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in the presence of imported cases. Euro Surveill. 2010;15:19622. Available at: http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx? ArticleId-19622.
31. Roberts MG, Nishiura H. Early estimation of the reproduction number in the presence of imported cases: pandemic influenza H1N1-2009 in New Zealand. PLoS One. 2011;6:e17835. doi:10.1371/journal. pone.0017835.
32. ECDC Working Group on Influenza A(H1N1)v. Preliminary analysis of influenza A(H1N1)v individual and aggregated case reports from EU and EFTA countries. Euro Surveill. 2009;14:19238. Available at: http://www. eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId-19238.
33. White LF, Pagano M. Reporting errors in infectious disease outbreaks, with an application to pandemic influenza A/H1N1. Epidemiol Perspect Innov. 2010;7:12. doi:10.1186/1742-5573-7-12.
34. Mercer GN, Glass K, Becker N. Effective reproduction numbers are commonly overestimated early in a disease outbreak. Stat Med. 2010; 30:984-994.
35. Glass K, Mercer GN, Nishiura H, McBryde ES, Becker NG. Estimating reproduction numbers for adults and children from case data. J Roy Soc Interface. 2011;8:1248-1259.
36. Ma J, Earn DJD. Generality of the final size formula for an epidemic of a newly invading infectious disease. Bull Math Biol. 2006;68:679-702. (Pubitemid 44195566)
37. Kelly H, Peck HA, Laurie KL, Wu P, Nishiura H, Cowling B. The cumulative incidence of infection with pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 was similar in various countries prior to vaccination: a review of serological studies. PLoS One. 2011;6:e21828. doi:10.1371/journal-.pone.0021828.
38. Nishiura H, Chowell G, Castillo-Chavez C. Did modelling overestimate the transmission potential of pandemic (H1N1-2009)? sample size estimation for post-epidemic seroepidemiological studies. PLoS One. 2011;6:e17908. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0017908.
39. Skowronski DM, Hottes TS, Janjua NZ, et al. Prevalence of seroprotection against the pandemic (H1N1) virus after the 2009 pandemic. CMAJ. 2010;182:1851-1856.
40. Waalen K, Kilander A, Dudman SG, Krogh GH, Aune T, Hungnes O. High prevalence of antibodies to the 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in the Norwegian population following a major epidemic and a large vaccination campaign in autumn 2009. Euro Surveill. 2010;15:19633. Available at: http://www.eurosurveillance.org/View-Article.aspx?ArticleId-19633.
41. Jiang T, Li X, Liu W, et al. Serum antibody response to the novel influenza A (H1N1) virus in the elderly. Clin Infect Dis. 2010;50:285-286.
42. Deng Y, Pang XH, Yang P, et al. Serological survey of 2009 H1N1 influenza in residents of Beijing, China. Epidemiol Infect. 2011;139: 52-58.
43. Adamson WE, Maddi S, Robertson C, et al. 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus in Scotland: geographically variable immunity in Spring 2010, following the winter outbreak. Euro Surveill. 2010;15: 19590. Available at: http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle. aspx?ArticleId-19590.
44. Yang P, Shi W, Tan L, et al. Serological surveillance of 2009 H1N1 influenza in China. Int J Infect Dis. 2011;15:e151-e152.
45. Allwinn R, Geiler J, Berger A, Cinatl J, Doerr HW. Determination of serum antibodies against swine-origin influenza A virus h1n1/09 by immunoxuorescence, haemagglutination inhibition, and by neutralization tests: how is the prevalence rate of protecting antibodies in humans? Med Microbiol Immunol. 2010;199:117-121.
46. Aho M, Lyytikaïnen O, Nyholm JE, et al. Outbreak of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) in a Finnish garrison-a serological survey. Euro Surveill. 2010;15:19709. Available at: http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx? ArticleId-19709.
47. Gurav YK, Pawaar SD, Chadha MS, et al. Pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 outbreak in a residential school at Panchgani, Maharashtra, India. Indian J Med Res. 2010;132:67-71.
48. Chen MI, Barr IG, Koh GCH, et al. Serological response in RT-PCR confirmed H1N1-2009 influenza A by hemagglutination inhibition and virus neutralization assays: an observational study. PLoS One. 2010; 5:e12474. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0012474.
49. Lee VJ, Yap J, Tay JK, et al. Seroconversion and asymptomatic infections during oseltamivir prophlyaxis against influenza A H1N1 2009. BMC Infect Dis. 2010;10:164. doi:10.1186/1471-2334-10-164.
50. Lee VJ, Yap J, Cook AR, et al. Effectiveness of public health measures in mitigating pandemic influenza spread: a prospective sero-epidemiological cohort study. J Infect Dis. 2010;202:1319-1326.
51. Chan YJ, Lee CL, Hwang SJ, et al. Seroprevalence of antibodies to pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza virus among hospital staff in a medical center in Taiwan. J. Chin Med Assoc. 2010;73:62-66.
52. Hung IFN, To KKW, Lee CK, et al. Effect of clinical and virological parameters on the level of neutralizing antibody against pandemic influenza A virus H1N1 2009. Clin Infect Dis. 2010;51:274-279.
53. Chen H, Wang Y, Liu W, et al. Serologic survey of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus, Guangxi province, China. Emerg Infect Dis. 2009;15: 1849-1850.
54. Ikonen N, Strengell M, Kinnunen L, et al. High frequency of crossreacting antibodies against 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus among the elderly in Finland. Euro Surveill. 2010;15:19478. Available at: http://www. eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId-19478.
55. Rizzo C, Rota MC, Bella A, et al. Cross-reactive antibody responses to the 2009 A/H1N1v influenza virus in the Italian population in the pre-pandemic period. Vaccine. 2010;28:3558-3562.
56. Chang SC. Preexisting antibodies against pandemic 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus in Taiwan. Clin Infect Dis. 2010;51:1465-1466.
57. Hancock K, Veguilla V, Lu Z, et al. Cross-reactive antibody responses to the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza virus. N Engl J Med. 2010;361: 1945-1952.
58. Itoh Y, Shinya K, Kiso M, et al. In vitro and in vivo characterization of new swine-origin H1N1 influenza viruses. Nature. 2009;460:1021-1025.
59. Tang JW, Tambyah PA, Wilder-Smith A, et al. Cross-reactive antibodies to pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus, Singapore. Emerg Infect Dis. 2010;16:874-876.
60. Chi CY, Liu CC, Lin CC et al. Preexisting antibody response against 2009 pandemic influenza H1N1 viruses in the Taiwanese population. Clin Vaccine Immunol. 2010;17:1958-1962.
61. Flahault A, de Lamballerie X, Hanslik T, Salez N. Symptomatic infections less frequent with H1N1pdm than with seasonal strains. PLoS Curr. 2009:PMC2798104.
62. Zimmer SM, Crevar CJ, Carter DM, et al. Seroprevalence following the second wave of pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza in Pittsburgh, PA, USA. PLoS One. 2010;5:e11601. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0011601.
63. Moghadami M, Moattari A, Tabatabaee HR, et al. High titers of hemagglutination inhibition antibodies against 2009 H1N1 influenza virus in southern Iran. Iran J Immunol. 2010;7:39-48.
64. Tsai TF, Pedotti P, Hilbert A, et al. Regional and age-specific patterns of pandemic H1N1 influenza virus seroprevalence inferred from vaccine clinical trials, August-October 2009. Euro Surveill. 2010;15: 19624.Availableat:http:// www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx? ArticleId-19624.
65. Ross T, Zimmer S, Burke D, et al. Seroprevalence following the second wave of pandemic 2009 H1N1 influenza. PLoS Curr. 2010: PMC2828126.
66. Bandaranayake D, Huang QS, Bissielo A, et al. Risk factors and immunity in a nationally representative population following the 2009 Influenza A(H1N1) pandemic. PLoS One. 2010;5:e13211. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0013211.
67. Chen MIC, Lee VJM, Lim WY, et al. 2009 Influenza A(H1N1) seroconversion rates and risk factors among distinct adult cohorts in Singapore. JAMA. 2010;303:1383-1391.
68. Wu JT, Ma ESK, Lee CK, et al. The infection attack rate and severity of 2009 pandemic H1N1influenza in Hong Kong. Clin Infect Dis. 2010;51:1184-1191.
69. McVernon J, Laurie K, Nolan T, et al. Seroprevalence of 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) virus in Australian blood donors, October-December 2009. Euro Surveill. 2010;15:19678. Available at: http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId-19678.
70. Gilbert GL, Cretikos MA, Hueson L, Doukas G, O'Toole B, Dwyer DE. Influenza A (H1N1) 2009 antibodies in residents of New South Wales, Australia, after the first pandemic wave in the 2009 southern hemisphere winter. PLoS One. 2010;5:e12562. doi:10.1371/journal-.pone.0012562.
71. Miller E, Hoschler K, Hardelid P, Stanford E, Andrews N, Zambon M. Incidence of 2009 pandemic influenza A H1N1 infection in England: a cross-sectional serological study. Lancet. 2010;375:1100-1108.
72. Mak GC, Choy PWW, Lee WY, Wong AH, Ng KC, Lim W. Sero-immunity and serologic response to pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 virus in Hong Kong. J Med Virol. 2010;82:1809-1815.
73. Dowse GK, Smith DW, Kelly H, et al. Incidence of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza infection in children and pregnant women during the 2009 influenza season in Western Australia-a seroprevalence study. Med J Aust. 2011;194:68-72.
74. Grills N, Piers LS, Barr I, et al. A lower than expected adult Victorian community attack rate for pandemic (H1N1) 2009. Aust N Z J Public Health. 2010;34:228-231.
75. Mahmud SM, Becker M, Keynan Y, et al. Estimated cumulative incidence of pandemic (H1N1) influenza among pregnant women during the first wave of the 2009 pandemic. CMAJ. 2010;182:1522-1524.
76. Tandale BV, Pawar SD, Gurav YK, et al. Seroepidemiology of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus infections in Pune, India. BMC Infect Dis. 2010;10:255. doi:10.1186/1471-2334-10-255.
77. Mossong J, Hens N, Jit M, et al. Social contacts and mixing patterns relevant to the spread of infectious diseases. PLoS Med. 2008;5:e74. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0050074. (Pubitemid 351471689)
78. Roberts MG, Tobias MI. Predicting and preventing measles epidemics in New Zealand: application of a mathematical model. Epidemiol Infect. 2000;124:279-287. (Pubitemid 30224137)
79. Hahné S, Donker T, Meijer A, et al. Epidemiology and control of influenza A(H1N1)v in the Netherlands: the first 115 cases. Euro Surveill. 2009;14:19267. Available at: http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx? ArticleId-19267.
80. Boëlle PY, Ansart S, Cori A, Valleron AJ. Transmission parameters of the A/H1N1 (2009) influenza virus pandemic: a review. Influenza and other Respiratory Viruses. 2011;5:306-316. doi: 10.1111/j. 1750-2659.2011.00234.x.
81. Farrington CP, Kanaan MN, Gay NJ. Estimation of the basic reproduction number for infectious diseases from age-stratified serological survey data. Appl. Statist. 2001;50:251-292. (Pubitemid 33297023)
82. Cauchemez S, Donnelly CA, Reed C, et al. Household transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus in the United States. N Eng J Med. 2009;361:2619-2627.
83. Carcione D, Giele CM, Goggin LS, et al. Secondary attack rate of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 in Western Australian household, 29 May-7 August 2009. Eurosurveillance. 2011;16:19765. Available at: http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId-19765.
84. France AM, Jackson M, Schrag S, et al. Household transmission of 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus after a school-based outbreak in New York City, April-May 2009. J Infect Dis. 2010;201:984-992.
85. Ghani AC, Baguelin M, Griffin J, et al. The early transmission dynamics of H1N1pdm influenza in the United Kingdom. PLoS Curr. 2009; PMC2780827.
86. Kim HL, Jeon H, Kim M, Kang CH, Park KH. Laboratory confirmation rate of pandemic influenza (H1N1 2009) virus in Korean households with index case. Infect Chemother. 2010;42:82-86.
87. Komiya N, Gu Y, Kamiya H, et al. Household transmission of pandemic 2009 influenza A (H1N1) virus in Osaka, Japan in May 2009. J Infection. 2010;61:284-288.
88. Lee DH, Kim CW, Kim JH, et al. Risk factors for laboratory-confirmed household transmission of pandemic H1N1 2009 infection. Am J Infect Control. 2010;38:e43-e45.
89. Leung YH, Li MP, Chuang SK. A school outbreak of pandemic (H1N1) 2009 infection: assessment of secondary household transmission and the protective role of oseltamivir. Epidemiol Infect. 2011;139: 41-44.
90. Savage R, Whelan M, Johnson I, et al. Assessing secondary attack rates among household contacts at the beginning of the influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in Ontario, Canada, April-June 2009: a prospective, observational study. BMC Pub Health. 2011;11:234.
91. Sikora C, Fan S, Golonka R, et al. Transmission of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 within households: Edmonton, Canada. J Clin Virol. 2010;49:90-93.
92. van Boven M, Donker T, van der Lubben M, et al. Transmission of novel influenza A(H1N1) in households with post-exposure antiviral prophlyaxis. PLoS One. 2010;5:e11442.
93. Cowling BJ, Chan KH, Fang VJ, et al. Comparative epidemiology of pandemic and seasonal influenza A in households. N Engl J Med. 2010;362:2175-2184.
94. Looker C, Carville K, Grant K, Kelly H. Influenza A (H1N1) in Victoria, Australia: a community case series and analysis of household transmission. PLoS One. 2010;5:e13702. doi:10.1371/journal.pone. 0013702.
95. Loustalot F, Silk BJ, Gaither A, et al. Household transmission of 2009 pandemic influenza A (H1N1) and nonpharmaceutical interventions among households of high school students in San Antonio, Texas. Clin Infect Dis. 2011;52:S146-S153.
96. Papenburg J, Baz M, Hamelin ME, et al. Household transmission of the 2009 pandemic A/H1N1 influenza virus: elevated laboratory-confirmed secondary attack rates and evidence of asymptomatic infections. Clin Infect Dis. 2010;51:1033-1041.
97. Suess T, Buchholz U, Dupke S, et al. Shedding and transmission of novel influenza virus A/H1N1infection in households-Germany, 2009. Am J Epi. 2010;171:1157-1164.
98. Presanis AM, Angelis DD, Hagy A, et al. The severity of pandemic H1N1 influenza in the United States, from April to July 2009: a Bayesian analysis. PLoS Med. 2009;6:e1000207. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1000207.
99. Garske T, Legrand J, Donnelly CA, et al. Assessing the severity of the novel influenza A/H1N1 pandemic. BMJ. 2009;339:220-224.
100. Buckley D, Bulger D. Estimation of the reproductive number for the 2009 pandemic H1N1 influenza in rural and metropolitan New South Wales. Aust J Rural Health. 2011;19:59-63.
101. Fierro A, Liccardo A. A simple stochastic lattice gas model for H1N1 pandemic. Application to the Italian epidemiological data. Eur Phys J Soft Matter. 2011;34:11. doi:10.1140/epje/i2011-11011-2.
102. Jin Z, Zhang J, Song LP, Sung GQ, Kan J, Zhu H. Modelling and analysis of influenza A (H1N1) on networks. BMC Public Health. 2011;11:S9. doi:10.1186/1471-2458-11-S1-S9.
103. Poletti P, Ajelli M, Merler S. The effect of risk perception on the 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza dynamics. PLoS One. 2010;6:e16460. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0016460.
104. Yang Y, Sugimoto JD, Halloran ME, et al. The transmissibility and control of pandemic influenza A (H1N1) virus. Science. 2009;326: 729-733.