Modelling the potential impact of global warming on Ips typographus voltinism and reproductive diapause

Climatic Change

Volumn 109, Issue 3-4, 2011, Pages 695-718

  Jönsson, Anna Maria ^a   Harding, Susanne ^b   Krokene, Paal ^c   Lange, Holger ^c   Lindelöw, Åke ^d   Økland, Bjørn ^c   Ravn, Hans Peter ^b   Schroeder, Leif Martin ^d  

^a LUND UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

^b UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN   (Denmark)

^c NORWEGIAN INSTITUTE OF BIOECONOMY RESEARCH   (Norway)

^d SWEDISH UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES   (Sweden)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BARK BEETLE; CENTRAL EUROPE; CHANGING CLIMATE; CRITICAL DETERMINANT; DAY-LENGTH; EXPERIMENTAL KNOWLEDGE; EXPERIMENTAL STUDIES; FOREST DAMAGE; FOREST INSECTS; FUTURE TRENDS; HIGHER TEMPERATURES; IPS TYPOGRAPHUS; LITERATURE DATA; MODEL DESCRIPTION; NORWAY SPRUCE TREES; POTENTIAL IMPACTS; REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS; SCANDINAVIA; SECOND GENERATION; SPECIFIC ADAPTATIONS; SPRUCE BARK BEETLES; TEMPERATURE DATA; TEMPERATURE THRESHOLDS; THIRD GENERATION;

FORESTRY; GLOBAL WARMING; PHENOLS; POPULATION STATISTICS;

CLIMATE MODELS;

ADAPTATION; ASSESSMENT METHOD; BEETLE; CLIMATE MODELING; CONIFEROUS TREE; DIAPAUSE; GLOBAL WARMING; NUMERICAL MODEL; PEST SPECIES; PHENOLOGY; REPRODUCTIVE BEHAVIOR; SWARMING;

BIOLOGICAL POPULATIONS; CLIMATES; FORESTRY; MODELS; PHENOLS; STATISTICS;

EURASIA; SCANDINAVIA;

COLEOPTERA; HEXAPODA; IPS TYPOGRAPHUS; PICEA; PICEA ABIES; SCOLYTINAE;

EID: 81555214480     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0038-4     Document Type: Article

References (63)

1. Anderbrant O (1990) Gallery construction and oviposition of the bark beetle Ips typographus (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) at different breeding densities. Ecol Entomol 15: 1-8.
2. Annila E (1969) Influence of temperature upon the development and voltinism of Ips typographus L. (Coleoptera, Scolytiade). Ann Zool Fenn 6: 161-208.
3. Austarå Ø, Pettersen H, Bakke A (1977) Bivoltinism in Ips typographus in Norway, and winter mortality in second generation. Medd Nor Inst Skogforsk 33: 272-280.
4. Ayres MP, Lombardero MJ (2000) Assessing the consequences of global change for forest disturbance from herbivores and pathogens. Sci Total Environ 262: 263-286.
5. Baier P, Pennerstorfer J, Schopf A (2007) PHENIPS-a comprehensive phenology model of Ips typographus (L.) (Col., Scolytinae) as a tool for hazard rating of bark beetle infestation. For Ecol Manag 249: 171-186.
6. Bakke A (1983) Host tree and bark beetle interaction during a mass outbreak of Ips typographus in Norway. Z Angew Entomol 96: 118-125.
7. Bakke A (1992) Monitoring bark beetle populations: effects of temperature. J Appl Entomol 114: 208-211.
8. Beaumont LJ, Pitman AJ, Poulsen M, Hughes L (2007) Where will species go? Incorporating new advances in climate modelling into projections of species distributions. Glob Chang Biol 13: 1368-1385.
9. Bender K (1948) Studien über die Massenvermehrung des grossen Fichtenborkenkäfers (Ips typographus L.) aus dem raum Messkirch (Südbaden) während der Jahre 1946 und 1947. Martin Kögel, Freiburg, p 79.
10. Carroll A, Taylor SW, Régnière J, Safranyik L (2003) Effects of climate change on range expansion by the mountain pine beetle in British Columbia. In: Shore TL, Brooks JE, Stone JE (eds) Mountain pine beetle symposium: challenges and solutions. October 30-31, 2003, Kelowna, British Columbia., Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre, Information Report BC-X-399, p 298.
11. Christiansen E, Bakke A (1988) The spruce bark beetle of Eurasia. In: Berryman AA (ed) Dynamics of forest insect populations. Plenum Publishing Corporation, pp 479-503.
12. Denlinger DL (2002) Regulation of diapause. Ann Rev Entomol 47: 93-122.
13. Déqué M, Rowell DP, Lüthi D, Giorgi F, Christensen JH, Rockel B, Jacob D, Kjellström E, de Castro M, van der Hurk B (2007) An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projection. Clim Change 81: 53-70.
14. Dolezal P, Sehnal F (2007) Effects of photoperiod and temperature on the development and diapause of the bark beetle Ips typographus. J Appl Entomol 131: 165-173.
15. Eidmann HH (1965) Untersuchungen über die Verteilung und den Verlauf von Insektenbefall an berindetem Kiefern- und Fichtenholz: ein Beitrag zur Ökologie und Entwicklung von Rindenbrütern in Schweden. Rapporter och uppsatser/Institutionen för skogsentomologi, Skogshögskolan, Stockholm, no. 0585-3273, 3, p 59.
16. Faccoli M (2002) Winter mortality in sub-corticolous populations of Ips typographus (Coleoptera, Scolytidae) and its parasitoids in the south-eastern Alps. Anz Schäldlingskd 75: 62-68.
17. Faccoli M (2009) Effect of Weather on Ips typographus (Coleoptera Curculionidae) phenology, voltinism, and associated spruce mortality in the Southeastern Alps. Environ Entomol 38(2): 307-316.
18. Forsse E (1991) Flight propensity and diapause incidence in five populations of the bark beetle Ips typographus in Scandinavia. Entomol Exp Appl 61: 53-57.
19. Hagen SB, Jepsen JU, Ims RA, Yoccoz NG (2007) Shifting altitudinal distribution of outbreak zones of winter moth Operophtera brumata in sub-arctic birch forest: a response to recent climate warming? Ecography 30: 299-307.
20. Harding S, Ravn HP (1985) Seasonal activity of Ips typographus L. (Col., Scolytiade) in Denmark. Z Angew Entomol 99: 123-131.
21. Haylock MR, Hofstra N, Klein Tank AMG, Klok EJ, Jones PD, New M (2008) A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res 113: D20119.
22. Hlásny T, Turc̀áni M (2009) Insect pests as climate change driven disturbances in forest ecosystems. In: Strelcová K, Matyas C, Kleidon A, Lapin M, Matejka F, Blazenec M, Škvarenina J, Holecy J (eds) Bioclimatology and Natural Hazards. Springer, p 298, 165-170.
23. Gomez-Zurita J, Galian J (2005) Current knowledge on genes and genomes of phytophagous beetles (Coleoptera: Chrysomeloidea, Curculionoidea): a review. Eur J Entomol 102: 577-597.
24. Good P, Bärring L, Giannakopoulos C, Holt T, Palutikof JP (2006) Non-linear regional relationships between climate extremes and annual mean temperatures in model projections for 1961-2099 over Europe. Clim Res 31: 19-34.
25. Gray DR, Ravlin FW, Braine JA (2001) Diapause in the gypsy moth: a model of inhibition and development. J Insect Physiol 47: 173-184.
26. IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment. Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, p 996.
27. Jansson PE, Claréus J (1996) Pgraph v1. 3 user's manual. Inst för Markvetenskap, SLU, Uppsala, Sweden, p 66.
28. Jönsson AM, Harding S, Bärring L, Ravn HP (2007) Impact of the climate change on the population dynamics of Ips typographus in southern Sweden. Agric For Meteorol 146: 70-81.
29. Jönsson AM, Appelberg G, Harding S, Bärring L (2009) Spatio-temporal impact of climate change on the activity and voltinism of the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus. Glob Chang Biol 15: 486-499.
30. Jungclaus JH, Keenlyside N, Botzet M, Haak H, Luo JJ, Latif M, Marotzke J, Mikolajewicz U, Roeckner E (2006) Ocean circulation and tropical variability in the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. J Clim 19: 3952-3972.
31. Kjellström E, Bärring L, Gollvik S, Hansson U, Jones C, Samuelsson P, Rummukainen M, Ullerstig A, Willén U, Wyser K (2005) A 140-year simulation of European climate with the new version of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model (RCA3). Reports Meteorology and Climatology, no 108, Dec 2005. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SE-60176 Norrköping, Sweden, p 54.
32. Kuhn W (1949) Das Massenauftreten des achtzähnigen Fichtenborkenkäfers Ips typographus L. nach Untersuchungen in schweizerischen Waldungen 1946-49. Mitt Schweiz Anst Forstl Verswes 26: 245-330.
33. Kurz WA, Dymond CC, Stinson G, Rampley GJ, Neilson ET, Carroll AL, Ebata T, Safranyik L (2008) Mountain pine beetle and forest carbon feedback to climate change. Nature 452: 987-990.
34. Lange H, Okland B, Krokene P (2006) Thresholds in the life cycle of the spruce bark beetle under climate change. Interjournal for Complex Systems 1648: 1-10.
35. Lange H, Økland B, Krokene P (2009) To be or twice to be? The life cycle development of the spruce bark beetle under climate change. In: Minai Ali A, Braha D, Bar-Yam Y (eds) Unifying themes in complex systems. Proceedings of the 6th international conference on complex systems. Springer, pp 251-258.
36. Menzel A, Sparks TH, Estrella N, Koch E, Aasa A, Ahas R, Alm-Kubler K, Bissolli P, Braslavska O, Briede A, Chmielewski FM, Crepinsek Z, Curnel Y, Dahl A, Defila C, Donnelly A, Filella Y, Jatcza K, Mage F, Mestre A, Nordli O, Penuelas J, Pirinen P, Remisova V, Scheifinger H, Striz M, Susnik A, van Vliet AJH, Wielgolaski FE, Zach S, Zust A (2006) European phenological response to climate change matches the warming pattern. Glob Chang Biol 12: 1969-1976.
37. Merker E (1952) Das Wetter der Jahre 1939 bis 1950 und sein Einfluss auf die Massenvermehrung des grossen Fichtenborkenkäfers in Südbaden. Allg Forst- Jagdztg 123: 213-233.
38. Nakićenović N, Swart R (eds) (2000) Emission scenarios, a special report of working group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 612.
39. Netherer S (2003) Modelling of bark beetle development and of site- and stand-related predisposition to Ips typographus (L.) (Coleoptera; Scolytidae). A contribution to risk assessment. Ph. D. thesis, BOKU-University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna.
40. Netherer S, Nopp-Mayr U (2005) Predisposition assessment systems (PAS) as supportive tools in forest management-rating of site and stand-related hazards of bark beetle infestation in the High Tatra Mountains as an example for system application and verification. For Ecol Manag 207: 99-107.
41. Netherer S, Pennerstorfer J (2003) Parameters relevant for modeling the potential development of Ips typographus (Coleoptera: Scolytidae). Integr Pest Manag Rev 6: 177-184.
42. Nihlgård B (1997) Forest decline and environmental stress. In: Brune D, Chapman DV, Gwynne MD, Pacyna JM (eds) The global environment; science, technology and management. Scandinavia Science, Oslo, pp 422-440.
43. Okland B, Bjørnstad ON (2006) A resource depletion model of forest insect outbreaks. Ecology 87: 283-290.
44. Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) (2007) Climate change 2007: impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, p 1000.
45. Parmesan C (2006) Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annu Rev Ecol Evol Syst 37: 637-669.
46. Persson G, Bärring L, Kjellström E, Strandberg G, Rummukainen M (2007) Climate indices for vulnerability assessments. SMHI Reports Meteorology Climatology No. 111, Norrköping, Sweden, p 64.
47. Rouault G, Candau JN, Lieutier F, Nageleisen LM, Martin JC, Warzee N (2006) Effects of drought and heat on forest insect populations in relation to the 2003 drought in Western Europe. Ann For Sci 63: 613-624.
48. Sallé A, Arthofer W, Lieutier F, Stauffer C, Kerdelhué C (2007) Phylogeography of a host-specific insect: genetic structure of Ips typographus in Europe does not reflect past fragmentation of its host. Biol J Linn Soc 90: 239-246.
49. Schär C, Vidale PL, Lüthi D, Frei C, Häberli C, Liniger MA, Appenzeller C (2004) The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. Nature 427: 332-336.
50. Schelhaas M-J, Nabuurs G-J, Schuck A (2003) Natural disturbances in the European forests in the 19th and 20th centuries. Glob Chang Biol 9: 1620-1633.
51. Schimitschek E (1931) Forstentomologische Untersduchungen aus dem Gebiete von Lunz. I. Standortsklima in ihren Beziehungen zum Entwicklungsablauf und zur Mortalität von insekten. Z Angew Entomol 18: 460-491.
52. Seitner M (1923-24) Beobachtungen und Erfahrungen aus dem Auftreten des achtzähnigen Fichtenborkenkäfers Ips typographus L. In: Oberösterreich und Steiermark in den Jahren 1921 und 1922. Centralbl. f. d. ges. Forstwesen 49(1/3): 1-11 (part 1), (4/6): 149-162 (part 2 + 3), (10/12): 270-277 (part 4); 1924, 50(1/3): 2-23 (end).
53. Stauffer C, Lakatos F, Hewitt GM (1999) Phylogeography and postglacial colonization routes of Ips typographus L. (Coleoptera, Scolytidae). Mol Ecol 8: 763-773.
54. Steinbauer MJ, Kriticos DJ, Lukacs Z, Clarke AR (2004) Modelling a forest lepidopteran: phenological plasticity determines voltinism which influences population dynamics. For Ecol Manag 198: 117-131.
55. Tauber MJ, Tauber CA (1976) Insect seasonality: diapause maintenance, termination, and postdiapause development. Ann Rev Entomol 21: 81-107.
56. Tobin PC, Nagarkatti S, Loeb G, Saunders MC (2008) Historical and projected interactions between climate change and insect voltinism in a multivoltine species. Glob Chang Biol 14: 951-957.
57. van Asch M, Tienderen PH, Holleman LJM, Visser ME (2007) Predicting adaptation of phenology in response to climate change, an insect herbivore example. Glob Chang Biol 13: 1596-1604.
58. Vanhanen H, Veleli TO, Paivinen S, Kellomaki S, Niemela P (2007) Climate change and range shifts in two insect defoliators: gypsy moth and nun moth-a model study. Silva Fenn 41: 621-638.
59. Volney WJA, Fleming RA (2000) Climate change and impacts of boreal forest insects. Agric Ecosyst Environ 82: 283-294.
60. Wermelinger B (2004) Ecology and management of the spruce bark beetle Ips typographus-a review of recent research. For Ecol Manag 202: 67-82.
61. Wermelinger B, Seifert M (1998) Analysis of the temperature dependent development of the spruce bark beetle Ips typographus (L.) (Col., Scolytidae). J Appl Entomol 122: 185-191.
62. Wermelinger B, Seifert M (1999) Temperature-dependent reproduction of the spruce bark beetle Ips typographus, and analysis of the potential population growth. Ecol Entomol 24: 103-110.
63. Wild M (1953) Die Entwicklung des grossen Fichtenborkenkäfers Ips typographus L. im Hochschwarzwald (1000-1200 m.ü. M.) und ihre Abhängigkeit vom Klima 1947-1950. Berichte des Naturforschenden Gesellschaft zu Freiburg i. Br., pp 121-176.