Using network properties to predict disease dynamics on human contact networks

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

Volumn 278, Issue 1724, 2011, Pages 3544-3550

  Ames, Gregory M ^a,b   George, Dylan B ^a   Hampson, Christian P ^c   Kanarek, Andrew R ^a   Mcbee, Cayla D ^c   Lockwood, Dale R ^a   Achter, Jeffrey D ^c   Webb, Colleen T ^a,b  

^a Department of Biology ^*  (United States)

^b Graduate Degree Program in Ecology   (United States)

^c Department of Environmental and Radiological Health Sciences   (United States)

Author keywords

Clustering coefficient; Contact networks; Disease modeling; Exponential degree distribution; Mean path length

Indexed keywords

CLUSTER ANALYSIS; COHORT ANALYSIS; DISEASE SPREAD; ECOLOGICAL THEORY; ENDEMIC SPECIES; PREDICTION; STOCHASTICITY;

EID: 80054885660     PISSN: 09628452     EISSN: 14712970     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2011.0290     Document Type: Article

References (35)

1. Anderson, R. M. & May, R. M. 1992 Infectious diseases of humans. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
2. Kermack, W. O. & McKendrick, A. G. 1927 Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A 115, 700-721. (doi:10.1098/rspa.1927.0118)
3. Newman, M. E. J. 2001 The structure of scientific collaboration networks. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 98, 404-409. (doi:10.1073/pnas.021544898)
4. Watts, D. J. & Strogatz, S. H. 1998 Collective dynamics of 'small-world' networks. Science 393, 440-442.
5. Aparicio, J. P. & Pascual, M. 2007 Building epidemiological models from R0: an implicit treatment of transmission in networks. Proc. R. Soc. B 274, 505-512. (doi:10.1098/rspb.2006.0057)
6. Bansal, S., Grenfell, B. T. & Meyers, L. A. 2007 When individual behavior matters: homogeneous and network models in epidemiology. J. R. Soc. Interface 4, 879-891. (doi:10.1098/rsif.2007.1100)
7. Eubank, S., Guclu, H., Anil-Kumar, V. S., Marathe, M. V., Srinivasan, A., Toroczkal, Z. & Wang, H. 2004 Modeling disease outbreak in realistic urban social networks. Nature 429, 180-184. (doi:10.1038/nature02541)
8. Keeling, M. J. 1999 The effects of local spatial structure on epidemiological invasions. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 266, 859-867. (doi:10.1098/rspb.1999.0716)
9. Meyers, L. A., Pourbohloul, B., Newman, M. E. J., Skowronski, D. M. & Brunham, R. C. 2005 Network theory and SARS: predicting outbreak diversity. J. Theor. Biol. 232, 71-81. (doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2004.07.026)
10. Roy, M. & Pascual, M. 2006 On representing network heterogeneities in the incidence rate of simple epidemic models. Ecol. Complex. 3, 80-90. (doi:10.1016/j.ecocom.2005.09.001)
11. Wallinga, J., Edmunds, W. J. & Kretzschmar, M. 1999 Perspective: human contact patterns and the spread of airborne infectious diseases. Trends Microbiol. 7, 372-377. (doi:10.1016/S0966-842X(99)01546-2)
12. Brockmann, D., Hufnagel, L. & Geisel, T. 2006 The scaling laws of human travel. Nature 439, 462-465. (doi:10.1038/nature04292)
13. Ferguson, N. M., Keeling, M. J., Edmunds, W. J., Gani, R., Grenfell, B. T., Anderson, R. M. & Leach, S. 2003 Planning for smallpox outbreaks. Nature 425, 681-685. (doi:10.1038/nature02007)
14. Benoit, J., Nunes, A. & Telo da Gama, M. 2006 Pair approximation models for disease spread. Eur. Phys. J. B 50, 177-181. (doi:10.1140/epjb/e2006-00096-x)
15. Keeling, M. J., Rand, D. A. & Morris, A. J. 1997 Correlation models for childhood epidemics. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 264, 1149-1156. (doi:10.1098/rspb.1997.0159)
16. Kretzschmar, M. & Morris, M. 1996 Measures of concurrency in networks and the spread of infectious disease. Math. Biosci. 133, 165-195. (doi:10.1016/0025-5564(95)00093-3)
17. May, R. M. 2006 Network structure and the biology of populations. Trends Ecol. Evol. 21, 394-399. (doi:10.1016/j.tree.2006.03.013)
18. Petermann, T. & De Los Rios, P. 2004 Role of clustering and gridlike ordering in epidemic spreading. Phys. Rev. E 69, 066116. (doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.69.066116)
19. Christley, R. M., Pinchbeck, G. L., Bowers, R. G., Clancy, D., French, N. P., Bennett, R. & Turner, J. 2005 Infection in social networks: using network analysis to identify high-risk individuals. Am. J. Epidemiol. 162, 1024-1031. (doi:10.1093/aje/kwi308)
20. Shirley, M. D. F. & Rushton, S. P. 2005 The impacts of network disease topology on disease spread. Ecol. Complex. 2, 287-299. (doi:10.1016/j.ecocom.2005.04.005)
21. Asano, T. 1995 An O(n log log n) time algorithm for constructing a graph of maximum connectivity with prescribed degrees. J. Comput. Syst. Sci. 51, 503-510. (doi:10.1006/jcss.1995.1086)
22. Hakansson, N., Jonsson, A., Lennartsson, J., Lindstrom, T. & Wennergren, U. 2010 Generating structure specific networks. Adv. Complex Syst. 13, 239-250. (doi:10.1142/S0219525910002517)
23. Keeling, M. 2005 The implications of network structure for epidemic dynamics. Theor. Popul. Biol. 67, 1-8. (doi:10.1016/j.tpb.2004.08.002)
24. Newman, M. E., Watts, D. J. & Strogatz, S. H. 2002 Random graph models of social networks. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 99, 2566-2572. (doi:10.1073/pnas.012582999)
25. Schank, T. & Wagner, D. 2005 Approximating clustering coefficient and transitivity. J. Graph Algorithms Appl. 9, 265-275.
26. Soffer, S. N. & Vazquez, A. 2005 Network clustering coefficient without degree-correlation biases. Phys. Rev. E 71, 057101. (doi:10.1103/PhysRevE.71.057101)
27. Keeling, M. J. & Rohani, P. 2008 Modeling infectious diseases in humans and animals. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
28. Mossong, J. & Muller, C. P. 2000 Estimation of the basic reproduction number of measles during an outbreak in a partially vaccinated population. Epidemiol. Infect. 124, 273-278. (doi:10.1017/S0950268899003672)
29. Massad, E., Burattini, M. N., Coutinho, F. A. B. & Lopez, L. F. 2007 The 1918 influenza A epidemic in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. Med. Hypoth. 68, 442-445. (doi:10.1016/j.mehy.2006.07.041)
30. Lloyd-Smith, J. O., Schreiber, S. J. & Getz, W. M. 2005 Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence. Nature 438, 355-359. (doi:10.1038/nature04153)
31. Burnham, K. & Anderson, D. 2002 Model selection and multimodel inference: a practical information-theoretic approach, 2nd edn. Berlin, Germany: Springer-Verlag.
32. May, R. M., Levin, S. A. & Sugihara, G. 2008 Ecology for bankers. Nature 451, 893-895.
33. Tildesley, M. J., House, T. A., Bruhn, M. C., Curry, R. J., O'Neil, M., Allpress, J. L. E., Smith, G. & Keeling, M. J. 2010 Impact of spatial clustering on disease transmission and optimal control. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 1041-1046. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0909047107)
34. Davis, S., Trapman, P., Leirs, H., Begon, M. & Heesterbeek, J. A. P. 2008 The abundance threshold for plague as a critical percolation phenomenon. Nature 454, 634-637. (doi:10.1038/nature07053)
35. Boily, M. C., Asghar, Z., Garske, T., Ghani, A. C. & Poulin, R. 2007 Influence of selected formation rules for finite population networks with fixed microstructures: implications for individual-based model of infectious diseases. Math. Popul. Stud. 14, 237-267. (doi:10.1080/08898480701612873)