The future of death in America

Demographic Research

Volumn 25, Issue , 2011, Pages 1-38

  King, Gary ^a   Soneji, Samir ^b  

^a HARVARD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b DARTMOUTH INSTITUTE FOR HEALTH POLICY AND CLINICAL PRACTICE   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 80054069359     PISSN: None     EISSN: 14359871     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2011.25.1     Document Type: Article

References (71)

1. Allison, D.B., Wang, C., Redden, D.T., Westfall, A.O., and Fontaine, K.R. (2003). Obesity and years of life lost-reply. Journal of the American Medical Association 289(14): 1777-1778.
2. Baker, J., Olsen, L., and Sørensen, T. (2007). Childhood body-mass index and the risk of coronary heart disease in adulthood. The New England Journal of Medicine 357(23): 2329-2337.
3. Baur, J., Pearson, K., Price, N., Jamieson, H., Lerin, C., Kalra, A., Prabhu, V., Allard, J., Lopez-Lluch, G., Lewis, K., Pistell, P., Poosala, S., Becker, K., Boss, O., Gwinn, D., Wang, M., Ramaswamy, S., Fishbein, K., Spencer, R., Lakatta, E., Le Couteur, D., Shaw, R., Navas, P., Puigserver, P., Ingram, D., de Cabo, R., and Sinclair, D. (2006). Resveratrol improves health and survival of mice on a high-calorie diet. Nature 444(16): 337-342.
4. Berger, J. (1994). An overview of robust Bayesian analysis (with discussion). Test 3: 5-124.
5. Bergman, R., Kim, S., Catalano, K., Hsu, I., Chiu, J., Kabir, M., Hucking, K., and Ader, M. (2006). Why visceral fat is bad: Mechanisms of the metabolic syndrome. Obesity 14(Supplement 1): 16S-19S.
6. Bongaarts, J. and Feeney, G. (2003). Estimating mean lifetime. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 100(23): 13127-13133.
7. Boyer, C. (1947). Note on an early graph of statistical data (Huygens 1669). Isis 37(3/4): 148-149.
8. Coale, A.J. and Demeny, P. (1966). Regional model life tables and stable populations. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
9. Crimmins, E., Preston, S., and Cohen, B. (eds.) (2011). Explaining divergent levels of longevity in High-income countries. Washington D.C.: National Academies Press. (Panel on Understanding Divergent Trends in Longevity in High-Income Countries).
10. Currie, I., Durban, M., and Eilers, P. (2004). Smoothing and forecasting mortality rates. Statistical Modelling 4(4): 279-298.
11. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs (1982). Model Life Tables for Developing Countries. United Nations. (Population Studies 77).
12. Doll, R. (1999). Tobacco: A medical history. Journal of Urban Health: Bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine 76(3): 289-313.
13. Doll, R., Peto, R., Boreham, J., and Sutherland, I. (2004). Mortality in relation to smoking: 50 years' observations on male British doctors. British Medical Journal 328(7455): 1519-1527.
14. Ezzati, M., Friedman, A.B., Kulkarni, S., and Murray, C. (2008). The reversal of fortunes: Trends in county mortality and cross-county mortality disparities in the United States. PLoS Medicine 5(5): 0557-0568. (e66).
15. Flegal, K., Carroll, M., Ogden, C., and Curtin, L. (2010). Prevalence and trends in obesity among U.S. adults, 1999-2008. The Journal of the American Medical Assocation 303(3): 235-241.
16. Fontaine, K.R., Redden, D.T., Wang, C., Westfall, A.O., and Allison, D.B. (2003). Years of life lost due to obesity. Journal of the American Medical Association 289(2): 187-193.
17. Freedman, M., Sigurdson, A., Rajaraman, P., Doody, M., Linet, M., and Ron, E. (2006). The mortality risk of smoking and obesity combined. American Journal of Preventive Medicine 31(5): 355-362.
18. Girosi, F. and King, G. (2008). Demographic forecasting. Princeton: Princeton University Press. http://gking.harvard.edu/files/smooth/.
19. Gompertz, B. (1825). On the nature of the function expressive of the law of human mortality, and on a new mode of determining the value of life contingencies. Philosophical Transactions 27: 513-585.
20. Graunt, J. (1662). Natural and political observations mentioned in a following index, and made upon the bills of mortality. London: John Martyn and James Allestry.
21. Gregg, E., Cheng, Y., Cadwell, B., Imperatore, G., Williams, D., Flegal, K., Narayan, V., andWilliamson, D. (2005). Secular trends in cardiovascular disease risk factors according to body mass index in U.S. adults. Journal of the American Medical Association 293(15): 1868-1874.
22. Guillot, M. (2003). The cross-sectional average length of life (cal): A cross-sectional mortality measure that reflects the experience of cohorts. Population Studies 57(1): 41-54.
23. Gutterman, S. (2008). Human behavior: An impediment to future mortality improvement, a focus on obesity and related matters. Society of Actuaries. (Living to 100 and Beyond Symposium).
24. Halley, E. (1693). An estimate of the degrees of mortality of mankind, drawn from curious tables of the births and funerals at the city of breslaw; with an attempt to ascertain the price of annuities upon lives. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London 17: 596-610.
25. Heitmann, B.L., Erikson, H., Ellsinger, B., Mikkelsen, K.L., and Larsson, B. (2000). Mortaltiy associated with body fat, fat-free mass and body mass index among 60-yearold Swedish men ¡ a 22-year follow-up. The study of mean born in 1913. International Journal of Obesity 24(1): 33-37.
26. Ho, D., Imai, K., King, G., and Stuart, E. (2007). Matching as nonparametric preprocessing for reducing model dependence in parametric causal inference. Political Analysis 15(3): 199-236. http://gking.harvard.edu/files/abs/matchp-abs.shtml.
27. Horiuchi, S. and Coale, A. (1982). A simple equation for estimating the expectation of life at old ages. Population Studies 36(2): 317-326.
28. Human Mortality Database (2008). University of California, Berkeley (USA) and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany). http://www.mortality.org (April 7, 2008).
29. Jacobs, D.R.J., Adachi, H., Mulder, I., Kromhout, D., Menotti, A., Nissinen, A., and Blackburn, H. (1999). Cigarette smoking and mortality risk: Twenty-five-year followup of the seven countries study. Archives of Internal Medicine 159(7): 733-740.
30. Kannisto, V., Lauritsen, J., Thatcher, A.R., and Vaupel, J. (1994). Reductions in mortality at advanced ages: Several decades of evidence from 27 countries. Population and Development Review 20(4): 793-810.
31. Keyfitz, N. (1982). Choice of function for mortality analysis: Effective forecasting depends on a minimum parameter representation. Theoretical Population Biology 21(3): 239-252.
32. King, G. and Soneji, S. (2011). Replication data for: The future of death in America. IQSS Dataverse Network. (Version V7). http://hdl.handle.net/1902.1/16178.
33. King, G. and Zeng, L. (2001). Explaining rare events in international relations. International Organization 55(3): 693-715. http://gking.harvard.edu/files/abs/baby0sabs.shtml.
34. King, G. and Zeng, L. (2006). The dangers of extreme counterfactuals. Political Analysis 14(2): 131-159. http://gking.harvard.edu/files/abs/counterft-abs.shtml.
35. Kirkby, J. and Currie, I. (2010). Smooth models of mortality with period shocks. Statistical Modelling 10(2): 177-196.
36. Lee, R. and Tuljapurkar, S. (1997). Death and taxes: Longer life, consumption, and social security. Demography 34(1): 67-81.
37. Lee, R.D. and Carter, L.R. (1992). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association 87(419): 659-671.
38. Lee, R.D. and Miller, T. (2001). Evaluating the performance of the Lee-Carter method for forecasting mortality. Demography 38(4): 537-549.
39. Li, N. and Lee, R.D. (2005). Coherent mortality forecasts for a group of populations: An extension of the Lee-Carter method. Demography 42(3): 575-594.
40. Lynch, J. and Smith, G.D. (2005). A life course approach to chronic disease epidemiology. Annual Review of Public Health 26(1): 1-35.
41. McNown, R. (1992). Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality: Comment. Journal of the American Statistical Association 87(419): 671-672.
42. Mehta, N. and Chang, V. (2009). Mortality attributable to obesity among middle-aged adults in the United States. Demography 46(4): 851-872.
43. Murray, C.L.J. and Lopez, A.D. (eds.) (1996). The Global Burden of Disease. Harvard University Press and WHO.
44. Oeppen, J. and Vaupel, J. (2002). Broken limits to life expectancy. Science 296(5570): 1029-1031.
45. Office of the Surgeon General (1964). Smoking and health, report of the advisory committee to the surgeon general of the public health service. United States Public Health Service. (Public Health Service Publication 1103).
46. Olshansky, S.J. (1988). On forecasting mortality. The Milbank Quarterly 66(3): 482-530.
47. Olshansky, S.J., Goldman, D., Zheng, Y., and Rowe, J. (2009). Aging in America in the twenty-first century: Demographic forecasts from the MacArthur Foundation Research Network on an aging society. Milbank Quarterly 87(4): 842-862.
48. Olshansky, S.J., Passaro, D., Hershow, R., Layden, J., Carnes, B., Brody, J., Hayflick, L., Butler, R., Allison, D., and Ludwig, D. (2005). A potential decline in life expectancy in the United States in the 21st century. The New England Journal of Medicine 352(11): 1138-1145.
49. Parascandola, M. (2004). Skepticism, statistical methods, and the cigarette: A historical analyis of a methodological debate. Perspectives in Biology and Medicine 47(2): 244-261.
50. Peace, L.R. (1985). A time correlation between cigarette smoking and lung cancer. The Statistician 34(4): 371-381.
51. Peeters, A., Barendregt, J., Willekens, F., Mackenbach, J., Al Mamun, A., and Bonneux, L. (2003). Obesity in adulthood and its consequences for life expectancy: A life-table analysis. Annals of Internal Medicine 138(1): 24-32.
52. Preston, S. and Stokes, A. (2010). Is the high level of obesity in the United States related to its low life expectancy? Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania. (Working Paper 2010-08).
53. Preston, S. and Wang, H. (2006). Sex mortality differences in the United States: The role of cohort smoking patterns. Demography 43(4): 631-646.
54. Preston, S.H., Heuveline, P., and Guillot, M. (2001). Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Oxford, England: Blackwell.
55. Prospective Studies Collaboration (2009). Body-mass index and cause-specific mortality in 900 000 adults: Collaborative analyses of 57 prospective studies. The Lancet 373(9669): 1083-1096.
56. Robins, J.M. (2008). Causal models for estimating the effects of weight gain on mortality. International Journal of Obesity 32: S15-S41.
57. Rogers, R., Hummer, R., Krueger, P., and Pampel, F. (2005). Mortality attributable to cigarette smoking in the United States. Population and Development Review 31(2): 259-292.
58. Romero-Corral, A., Montori, V., Somers, V., Korinek, J., Thomas, R., Allison, T., Mookadam, F., and Lopez-Jimenez, F. (2006). Association of bodyweight with total mortality and with cardiovascular events in coronary artery disease: A systematic review of cohort studies. The Lancet 368(9536): 666-678.
59. Sloan, F., Ostermann, J., Picone, G., Conover, C., and Taylor, D. (2004). The price of smoking. Cambridge, Mass.: The MIT Press.
60. Snijder, M.B., van Dam, R.M., Visser, M., and Seidell, J.C. (2006). What aspects of bodyfat are particularly hazardous and how do we measure them? International Journal of Epidemiology 35(1): 83-92.
61. Soneji, S. and King, G. (2011). Statistical security for social security. Demography (forthcoming). http://gking.harvard.edu/files/abs/ssc-abs.shtml.
62. Stewart, S.T., Cutler, D.M., and Rosen, A.B. (2009). Forecasting the effects of obesity and smoking on U.S. life expectancy. The New England Journal of Medicine 361(23): 2252.
63. Sturm, R. (2002). The effects of obesity, smoking, and drinking on medical problems and cost. Health Affairs 21(2): 245-253.
64. Torri, T. and Vaupel, J.W. (2011). Forecasting life expectancy in an international context. International Journal of Forecasting 27. (Forthcoming).
65. Vollgraff, J.A. (ed.) (1950). Oeuvres complètes de Christiaan Huygens. Publiées par la Société hollandaise des sciences. La Haye: M. Nijhoff.
66. Wang, H. and Preston, S. (2009). Forecasting United States mortality using cohort smoking histories. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106(2): 393-398.
67. Wardle, J., Carnell, S., Haworth, C., and Plomin, R. (2008). Evidence for a strong genetic influence on childhood adiposity despite the force of the obesogenic environment. American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 87(2): 398-404.
68. Wessel, T.R., Arant, C.B., Olson, M.B., Johnson, B.D., Reis, S.E., Sharaf, B.L., Shaw, L.J., Handberg, E., Sopko, G., Kelsey, S.F., Pepine, C.J., Bairey, M., and Noel, C. (2004). Relationship of physical fitness vs body mass index with coronary artery disease and cardiovascular events in women. Journal of the American Medical Association 292(10): 1179-1187.
69. Wilmoth, J. (2005). On the relationship between period and cohort mortality. Demographic Research 13(11): 231-280.
70. Wright, V.B. (1986). Will quitting smoking help medicare solve its financial problems? Inquiry 23(1): 76-82.
71. Yang, W., Kelly, T., and He, J. (2007). Genetic epidemiology of obesity. Epidemiologic Reviews 29(1): 49-61.