Destructive tension: Mathematics versus experience - The progress and control of the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain

OIE Revue Scientifique et Technique

Volumn 30, Issue 2, 2011, Pages 483-498

  Mansley, L M ^a   Donaldson, A I ^b   Thrusfield, M V ^c   Honhold, N ^d  

^a Strathearn House   (United Kingdom)

^b Bio Vet Solutions Ltd   (United Kingdom)

^c UNIVERSITY OF EDINBURGH   (United Kingdom)

^d Euro Edge Scotland Ltd   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

2001,3 km sheep cull; Biosecurity; Britain; Contiguous culling; Control procedure; Foot and mouth disease; Great Britain; Mathematical model; Stamping out

Indexed keywords

ANIMALIA; OVIS ARIES;

EID: 80052705842     PISSN: 02531933     EISSN: 16080645     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.20506/rst.30.2.2054     Document Type: Article

References (71)

1. Alexandersen S., Kitching R. P., Mansley L. M. & Donaldson A. I. (2003). - Clinical and laboratory investigations of five outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease during the early stages of the 2001 epidemic in the United Kingdom. Vet. Rec, 152(16), 489-496. (Pubitemid 36546951)
2. Alexandersen S., Zhang Z., Donaldson A I. & Garland A. J. M. (2003). - The pathogenesis and diagnosis of foot-and-mouth disease. J. comp. Pathol, 129(1), 1-36. (Pubitemid 36908834)
3. Alexandersen S., Zhang Z., Reid S. M., Hutchings G. H. & Donaldson A. I. (2002). - Quantities of infectious virus and viral RNA recovered from sheep and cattle experimentally infected with foot-and-mouth disease virus O UK 2001. J. gen. Virol, 83(Pt 8), 1915-1923. (Pubitemid 34846454)
4. Anderson I. (2002). - Foot and mouth disease 2001: lessons to be learned inquiry report. The Stationery Office, London, 187 pp. Available at: http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov. uk/20100807034701/http://archive. cabinetoffice.gov. uk/fmd/fmd-report/report/mdex.htm (accessed on 27 February).
5. Ayers E., Cameron E., Kemp R., Leitch H., Mollison A., Muir I., Reid H., Smith D. & Sproat J. (2001). - Oral lesions in sheep and cattle in Dumfries and Galloway. Vet. Rec, 148(23), 720-723.
6. BBC Newsnight (2001). - Foot and mouth crisis. Interview with Roy Anderson, 21 March. BBC, London.
7. Childs T. (1952). - Foot-and-mouth disease Saskatchewan, Canada. Proc. U. S. Livest. Sanit. Assoc, 56, 153-165.
8. Committee of Inquiry on Foot and Mouth Disease (1969). - Report of the Committee of Inquiry on Foot and Mouth Disease 1968 [the Northumberland Report], Part I. Cmnd. 3999. Her Majesty's Stationery Office, London.
9. Committee of Inquiry on Foot and Mouth Disease (1969). - Report of the Committee of Inquiry on Foot and Mouth Disease 1968 [the Northumberland Report], Part II. Cmnd. 4225. Her Majesty's Stationery Office, London.
10. Cook A. J. C. & Davison H. C. (2001). - Sheep and goat foot and mouth disease serology. Final report, June 12. Epidemiology Department, Veterinary Laboratories Agency, Weybridge, 35 pp.
11. Cottral G. E. (1969). - Persistence of foot-and-mouth disease virus in animals, their products and the environment. Bull. Off. int. Epiz., 71, 549-568.
12. Crispin S. M., Roger P. A., O'Hare H. & Binns S. H. (2002). - The 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom: animal welfare perspectives. In Foot and mouth disease: facing the new dilemmas (G. R. Thomson, ed.). Rev. sci. tech. Off. int. Epiz., 21(3), 877-883. (Pubitemid 36080150)
13. Davies G. (2001). - Foot-and-mouth disease control measures. Vet. Rec, 148(12), 386-387.
14. Davies J. T. (1973). - The scientific approach. Academic Press, London, New York.
15. De La Rua R., Watkins G H. & Watson P. J. (2001). - Idiopathic mouth ulcers in sheep. Vet. Rec, 149(1), 30-31.
16. Donaldson A. I. (1987). - Foot-and-mouth disease: the principal features. Irish vet. J., 41, 325-327.
17. Donaldson A. I. (2002). - Role of IAH in the 2001 epidemic - input of experimental data into models, current FMD spread models, strengths and weaknesses of the models. In Foot and Mouth Disease Modelling Workshop, 23 May 2002. Summary Report. Science Directorate, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, London, 25-31.
18. Donaldson A. I., Alexandersen S., Sørensen J H. & Mikkelsen T. (2001). - Relative risks of the uncontrollable (airborne) spread of FMD by different species. Vet. Rec, 148(19), 602-604.
19. Donaldson A. I. & Sellers R. E (2007). - Foot-and-mouth disease. In Diseases of sheep (I. D. Aitken, ed.), 4th Ed. Blackwell Publishing, Oxford, 282-288.
20. Ferguson N. M., Donnelly C. A. & Anderson R. M. (2001). - The foot-and-mouth epidemic in Great Britain: pattern of spread and impact of interventions. Science, 292(5519), 1155-1160. E-pub.: 12 April 2001. (Pubitemid 32440936)
21. Garland A. J. M. & Donaldson A. I. (1990). - Foot and mouth disease. Surveillance, 17, 6-8.
22. Gibbens J. C. & Wilesmith J. W (2002). - Temporal and geographical distribution of foot-and-mouth disease during the early weeks of the 2001 epidemic in Great Britain. Vet. Rec, 151(14), 407-412. (Pubitemid 35174761)
23. Gibbens J. C., Sharpe C. E., Wilesmith J. W., Mansley L. M., Michalopoulou E., Ryan J. B. M. & Hudson M. (2001). - Descriptive epidemiology of the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain: the first five months. Vet. Rec, 149(24), 729-743. (Pubitemid 34023806)
24. Gloster J., Champion H. J., Sørenson J. H., Mikkelsen T., Ryall D., Astrup R., Alexandersen S. & Donaldson A. I. (2003). - Airborne transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus from Burnside Farm, Heddon-on-the-Wall, Northumberland, during the 2001 epidemic in the United Kingdom. Vet. Rec, 152(17), 525-533. (Pubitemid 36553046)
25. Erratum: Vet. Rec, 152(20), 628.
26. Gloster J., Freshwater A., Sellers R. E & Alexandersen S. (2005). - Re-assessing the likelihood of airborne spread of foot-and-mouth disease at the start of the 1967-1968 UK foot-and-mouth disease epidemic. Epidemiol. Infect., 133(5), 767-783. (Pubitemid 41478961)
27. Haydon D. T., Kao R. R. & Kitching R. P. (2004). - The UK foot-and-mouth disease epidemic - the aftermath. Nat. Rev. Microbiol, 2(8), 675-681.
28. Honhold N. & Taylor N. M. (2006). - Data quality assessment: comparison of recorded and contemporary data for farm premises and stock numbers in Cumbria, 2001. In Proc. Soc. Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine (SVEPM), 29-31 March, Exeter, United Kingdom. SVEPM, 152-163.
29. Honhold N., Taylor N. M., Mansley L. M. & Paterson A. D. (2004). - Relationship of speed of slaughter on infected premises and intensity of culling of other premises to the rate of spread of the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain, 2001. Vet. Rec, 155(10), 287-294. (Pubitemid 39248328)
30. Honhold N., Taylor N. M., Wingfield A., Einshoj P., Middlemiss C., Eppink L., Wroth R. & Mansley L. M. (2004). - Evaluation of the application of veterinary judgement in the pre-emptive cull of contiguous premises during the foot-andmouth disease epidemic in Cumbria in 2001. Vet. Rec, 155(12), 349-355. (Pubitemid 39386878)
31. Howard S. C. & Donnelly C. A. (2000). - The importance of immediate destruction in epidemics of foot-and-mouth disease. Res. vet. Sci., 69(2), 189-196.
32. Hugh-Jones M. E. & Tinline R. R. (1976). - Studies on the 1967-68 foot and mouth disease epidemic: incubation period and herd serial interval. J. Hyg. (Land.), 77(2), 141-153.
33. Hughes G. J., Mioulet V., Kitching R. P., Woolhouse M. E., Alexandersen S. & Donaldson A. I. (2002). - Foot-and-mouth disease virus infection of sheep: implications for diagnosis and control. Vet. Rec, 150(23), 724-727. (Pubitemid 34662118)
34. Kahn L. H. (2009). - Who's in charge? Leadership during epidemics, bioterror attacks, and other public health crises. Praeger Security International, Santa Barbara, California, 115-139.
35. Keeling M. J., Woolhouse M. E. J., Shaw D. J., Matthews L., Chase-Topping M., Haydon D. T., Cornell S. J., Kappey J., Wilesmith J. & Grenfell B. T. (2001). - Dynamics of the 2001 UK foot and mouth epidemic: stochastic dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape. Science, 294(5543), 813-817. E-pub.: 3 October 2001. (Pubitemid 33032092)
36. King D. (2001). - Select Committee on Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. Minutes of evidence. Examination of witnesses. Wednesday, 7 November. Available at: www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm200102/cmselect/cmenvfr/323/ 1110708.htm (accessed on 18 September 2009).
37. King D. (2001). - The impact of foot and mouth disease. In First Report of Session 2001-2002, House of Commons, Environment, Food and Rural Affairs Committee, 25 April, Column 399. Her Majesty's Stationery Office, London, 60-82.
38. King D. P., Dukes J. P., Reid S. M., Ebert K., Shaw AE., Mills C. E., Boswell L. & Ferris N. P. (2008). - Prospects for rapid diagnosis of foot-and-mouth disease in the field using reverse transcriptase-PCR. Vet. Rec, 162(10), 315-316. (Pubitemid 351450105)
39. Kitching R. P. (2002). - Submission to the Temporary European Union Commission on foot-and-mouth disease. European Parliament, Brussels, 16 July.
40. Kitching R. P. & Hughes G. J. (2002). - Clinical variation in foot and mouth disease: sheep and goats. In Foot and mouth disease: facing the new dilemmas (G. R. Thomson, ed.). Rev. sci. tech. Off. int. Epiz., 21(3), 505-512. (Pubitemid 36080118)
41. Kitching R. R., Hutber A. M. & Thrusfield M. V (2005). - A review of foot-and-mouth disease with special consideration for the clinical and epidemiological factors relevant to predictive modelling of the disease. Vet. J., 169(2), 197-209. (Pubitemid 40277291)
42. Kitching R. P., Thrusfield M. & Taylor N. M. (2006). - Use and abuse of mathematical models: an illustration from the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom. In Biological disasters of animal origin. The role and preparedness of veterinary and public health services (M. Hugh-Jones, ed.). Rev. sci. tech. Off. int. Epiz., 25(1), 293-311.
43. Knowles N. J., Samuel A. R., Davies PR., Kitching R. P. & Donaldson A. I. (2001). - Outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease virus serotype O in the UK caused by a pandemic strain. Vet. Rec, 148(9), 258-259. (Pubitemid 33664329)
44. Mackay D. (1994). - Foot and mouth disease in North Africa. FMD Bull., 1, 24.
45. Mackay D. K. J. & Rendle T. (1996). - A serological survey of small ruminants in Morocco for antibody to FMD. FMD Newsletter, 1, 6.
46. Mackay D. K. J., Newman B. & Sachpatzidis A. (1995). - Epidemiological analysis of the serological survey for antibody to FMD virus, Greece 1994. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) report. FAO, Rome.
47. Mansley L. M., Dunlop P. J., Whiteside S. M. & Smith R. G. H. (2003). - Early dissemination of foot-and-mouth disease virus through sheep marketing in February 2001. Vet. Rec, 153(2), 43-50. (Pubitemid 36889584)
48. Mendick R. & Lean G. (2001). - Revealed: the needless slaughter of 2m animals. Independent on Sunday, 24 June, 1. Available at: www.independent.co. uk/news/uk/this-britain/revealed-the-needless-slaughter-of-2m-animals-675345. html (accessed on 23 February 2011).
49. Mikkelsen T., Alexandersen S., Astrup P., Champion H. J., Donaldson A. I., Dunkerley F. N., Gloster J., Sørensen J. H. & Thykier-Nielsen S. (2003). - Investigation of airborne footand-mouth disease virus transmission during low-wind conditions in the early phase of the UK 2001 epidemic. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 3, 2101-2110.
50. Mikkelsen T., Larsen S. E. & Thykier-Nielsen S. (1984). - Description of the Risø puff diffusion model. Nuc. Technol., 67, 56-65. (Pubitemid 15424357)
51. Morris R. S., Sanson R. L., Stern M. W., Stevenson M. & Wilesmith J. W (2002). - Decision-support tools for foot and mouth disease control. In Foot and mouth disease: facing the new dilemmas (G. R. Thomson, ed.). Rev. sri. tech. Off. int. Epiz., 21(3), 557-567. (Pubitemid 36080123)
52. Mumford L. (1970). - The Pentagon of power. Harcourt Brace Jovanovich Inc., New York.
53. Reid H. W (2002). - FMD in a parturient sheep flock. Vet. Rec, 150(25), 791.
54. Sartwell P. E. (1950). - The distnbution of incubation periods of infectious disease. Am. J. Hyg., 51(3), 310-318.
55. Schley D., Gubbins S. & Paton D. J. (2009). - Quantifying the risk of localised animal movement bans for foot-and-mouth disease. Doi:10.1371/journal. pone.0005481. PLoS ONE, 4(5), e5481. Available at: www.plosone org/article/info% 3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0005481 (accessed on 18 September 2009).
56. Scudamore J. M. & Harris D. M. (2002). - Control of foot and mouth disease: lessons from the experience of the outbreak in Great Britain in 2001. In Foot and mouth disease: facing the new dilemmas (G. R. Thomson, ed.). Rev. sci. tech. Off. int. Epiz., 21(3), 699-710. (Pubitemid 36080135)
57. Sellers R. F & Parker J. (1969). - Airborne excretion of footand-mouth disease virus. J. Hyg. (Lond.), 67(4), 671-677.
58. Smolin L. (2006). - The trouble with physics. Penguin Books, London.
59. Sorensen J. H. (1998). - Sensitivity of the DERMA long-range dispersion model to meteorological input and diffusion parameters. Atmos. Environ., 32, 4195-4206. (Pubitemid 28540957)
60. Sørensen J. H., Jensen C.Ø., Mikkelsen T., Mackay D. K. J. & Donaldson A. I. (2001). - Modelling the atmospheric dispersion of foot-and-mouth disease virus for emergency preparedness. Phys. Chem. Earth (B), 26, 93-97. (Pubitemid 32164262)
61. Sørensen J. H., Mackay D. K. J., Jensen C.Ø. & Donaldson A. I. (2000). - An integrated model to predict the atmospheric spread of foot-and-mouth disease virus. Epidemiol. Infect., 124(3), 577-590. (Pubitemid 30623874)
62. Taylor N. (2003). - Review of the use of models in informing disease control policy development and adjustment. A report for DEFRA. Available at: webarchive.nationalarchives.govuk/20080820232926/& www defra.gov uk/science/Publications/2003/UseofModelsinDiseaseControlPolicy.pdf (accessed on 24 August 2009).
63. Taylor N. M., Honhold N., Paterson A. D. & Mansley L. M. (2004). - Risk of foot-and-mouth disease associated with proximity in space and time to infected premises and the implications for control policy during the 2001 epidemic in Cumbria. Vet. Rec, 154(20), 617-626. (Pubitemid 38735897)
64. Thrusfield M. (2007). - Veterinary epidemiology, 3rd Ed., rev. Blackwell Scientific, Oxford, 386 pp.
65. Thrusfield M., Mansley L., Dunlop P., Taylor J., Pawson A. & Stringer L. (2005). - The foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Dumfries and Galloway 2001. 1: Characteristics and control. Vet. Rec, 156(8), 229-252. (Pubitemid 40352965)
66. Thrusfield M., Mansley L., Dunlop P., Pawson A. & Taylor J. (2005). - The foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Dumfries and Galloway, 2001. 2: Serosurveillance, and efficiency and effectiveness of control procedures after the national ban on animal movements. Vet. Rec, 156(9), 269-278. (Pubitemid 40352978)
67. United Kingdom Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) (2002). - Origin of the UK foot and mouth epidemic in 2001. DEFRA, London. Available at: wwwdefra.gov. uk/animalh/diseases/fmd/2001/index.htm (accessed on 24 August 2009).
68. United Kingdom Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) (2005). - Detailed investigation of the methods and characteristics of spread of FMD in special geographic clusters and the effects of control measures during the 2001 epidemic (SE 2932). Final project report. DEFRA, London.
69. United Kingdom Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food (MAFF) (1986). - Foot-and-mouth disease. Ageing of lesions. Reference book 400. Her Majesty's Stationery Office, London.
70. Wilesmith J. W., Stevenson M. A., King C. B. & Morris R. S. (2003). - Spatio-temporal epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease in two counties of Great Britain in 2001. Prev. vet. Med., 61(3), 157-170. (Pubitemid 37292962)
71. World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) (2008). - Foot and mouth disease. Chapter 8.5. In Terrestrial Animal Health Code, Vol. II., 17th Ed. OIE, Paris, 347-369.