Evidence linking solar variability with US hurricanes

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 31, Issue 13, 2011, Pages 1897-1907

  Hodges, Robert E ^a   Elsner, James B ^a  

^a FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Multivariate regression; Ozone; Sea surface temperatures; Sunspots; Thermodynamics; UV radiation

Indexed keywords

ANOMALY INDEXES; IN-PHASE; MULTIVARIATE REGRESSION; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES; SOLAR ACTIVITY; SOLAR CYCLE; SOLAR VARIABILITY; SUNSPOT NUMBER; SUNSPOTS; TIME-SCALES; TOTAL SOLAR IRRADIANCE; UPPER-AIR TEMPERATURE;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; OZONE; PROBABILITY; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SOLAR ENERGY; SOLAR RADIATION; SURFACE PROPERTIES; THERMODYNAMICS; ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION;

HURRICANES;

AIR TEMPERATURE; CORRELATION; EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS; HURRICANE; IRRADIANCE; MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS; PROBABILITY; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SOLAR ACTIVITY; SOLAR CYCLE; ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION;

UNITED STATES;

EID: 80052691910     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: 10970088     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.2196     Document Type: Article

References (50)

1. Angell JK. 1989. On the relation between atmospheric ozone and sunspot number. Journal of Climate 2: 1404-1416.
2. Atlantic Oceanic and Meteorological Laboratory-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (AOML-NOAA). 2008. HURDAT Re-analysis. Retrieved on 2008-03-21.
3. Bister M, Emanuel KA. 1998. Dissipative heating and hurricane intensity. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 50: 233-240.
4. Calisesi Y, Matthes K. 2007. The middle atmospheric ozone response to the 11-year solar cycle. Space Science Reviews 125(1-4): 273.
5. Chenoweth M. 2006. A reassessment of historical Atlantic basin tropical cyclone activity, 1700-1855. Climatic Change 76: 169-240.
6. Dima M, Lohmann G, Dima I. 2005. Solar-induced internal climate variability at decadal time series. International Journal of Climatology 25: 713-733.
7. Dong K, Neumann CJ. 1986. The relationship between tropical cyclone motion and environmental geostrophic flows. Monthly Weather Review 114: 115-122.
8. Elsner JB, Jagger TH. 2006. Prediction models for annual U.S. hurricane counts. Journal of Climate 19: 2935-2952.
9. Elsner JB, Jagger TH. 2008. United States and Caribbean tropical cyclone activity related to the solar cycle. Geophysical Research Letters 35: L18705.
10. Elsner JB, Kocher B. 2000. Global tropical activity: a link to the North Atlantic oscillation. Geophysical Research Letters 27: 129-232.
11. Elsner JB, Jagger TH, Dickinson M, Rowe D. 2008. Improving multiseason forecasts of North Atlantic hurricane activity. Journal of Climate 21: 1209-1219.
12. Elsner JB, Jagger TH, Hodges RE. 2010. Daily tropical cyclone intensity response to solar ultraviolet radiation. Geophysical Research Letters 37: L09071.
13. Emanuel KA. 1991. The theory of hurricanes. Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics 23: 179-196.
14. Emanuel K. 1994. Atmospheric Convection. Oxford University press: New York; 580 pp.
15. Gray WM. 1968. Global view of the origins of tropical disturbances and storms. Monthly Weather Review 96: 669-700.
16. Gray WM. 1984. Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency. Part I: El Niño and 30 mb quasi-biennial oscillation influences. Monthly Weather Review 112: 1649-1668.
17. Gray WM. 1998. The formation of tropical cyclones. Meteorology And Atmospheric Physics 67: 37-69.
18. Heath D, Schlesinger B. 1986. The Mg 280 nm doublet as a monitor for changes in solar ultraviolet irradiance. Journal of Geophysical Research 91: 8672-8688.
19. Henderson-Sellers A, Zhang H, Berz G, Emanuel K, Gray W, Landsea C, Holland G, Lighthill J, Shieh SL, Webster P, McGuffie K. 1998. Tropical cyclones and global climate change: a post-IPCC assessment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79: 19-38.
20. Hobgood JS. 1986. A possible mechanism for the diurnal oscillations of tropical cyclones. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 43:23 2901-2922.
21. Holland G. 1997. The maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones. Journal of Atmospheric Science 54(21): 2519-2541.
22. Hood LL. 2003. Thermal response of the tropical tropopause region to solar ultraviolet variations. Journal of Geophysical Research 30:23 2215.
23. Hoyt DV, Schatten KH. 1997. The Role of the Sun in Climate Change. Oxford University Press: Oxford; 279.
24. Jones PD, Jónsson T, Wheeler D. 1997. Extension to the North Atlantic Oscillation using early instrumental pressure observations from Gibraltar and South-West Iceland. International Journal of Climatology 17: 1433-1450.
25. Kaplan A, Cane MA, Kushnir Y, Clement AC, Blumenthal MB, Rajagopalan B. 1998. Analyses of Global Sea Surface Temperature 1856-1991. Journal of Geophysical Research 103: 18567-18589.
26. Labitzke K. 2002. The global signal of the 11-year solar cycle in the stratosphere: observations and models. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 64:2 203-210.
27. Landsea CW, Anderson C, Charles N, Clark G, Dunion J, Fernandez-Partagas J, Hungerford P, Neumann C, Zimmer M. 2004. The Atlantic hurricane database re-analysis project: documentation for the 1851-1910 alterations and additions to the HURDAT database. In Hurricanes and Typhoons: Past, Present and Future, Murname RJ, Liu K-B (eds). Columbia University Press: New York; 177-221.
28. Lean JL, Rottman GJ, Kyle HL, Woods TN, Hickey JR, Puga LC. 1997. Detection and parameterization of variations in solar mid- and near-ultraviolet radiation (200-400 nm). Journal of Geophysical Research 102: 29, 939-29, 956.
29. Ludlum D. 1963. Early American Hurricanes-1492-1870. American Meteorological Society: Boston, MA; 198.
30. Meehl GA, Arblaster JM, Matthes K, Sassi F, van Loon H. 2009. Amplifying the Pacific climate system response to a small 11 year solar cycle forcing. Science 325: 1114-1118.
31. Meldrum C. 1872. On a periodicity in the frequency of cyclones in the Indian Ocean south of the equator. Nature 6: 357-358.
32. Miller BI. 1958. On the maximum intensity of hurricanes. Journal of Applied Meteorology 15: 184-195.
33. Partagas JF, Diaz HF. 1996. Atlantic hurricanes in the second half of the nineteenth century. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 77: 2899-2906.
34. Pap JM, Fox P. 2004. Solar Variability and its Effects on Climate. AGU Press: Washington, DC; 366.
35. Poey A. 1855. A chronological table comprising 400 cyclone hurricanes which have occurred in the West Indies and in the North Atlantic within 362 years, from 1493-1855. Journal of the Royal Geographical Society 25: 291-328.
36. Poey A. 1873. Sur les rapports entre les taches solaires et les ourages des Antilles de l'Atlantique-nord et de l'Ocean Indien sud. Comptes Rendus 77: 1223-1226.
37. Van der Linden RAM, & the SIDC team. 2009. Online catalogue of the sunspot index. Retrieved on 02-01-2009.
38. Redfield WC. 1836. On Gales and Hurricanes of the Western Atlantic. U.S. Naval Magazine, 1, and London Nautical Magazine, 5.
39. R Development Core Team. 2009. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing and Graphics. R Found. for Stat. Comput.: Vienna, Available at.
40. Scheitlin KN, Elsner JB, Malmstadt JC, Hodges RE, Jagger TH. 2010. Towards increased utilization of historic hurricane chronologies. Journal of Geophysical Research 115: D03108. DOI: 10/1029/2009JD012424.
41. Shindell DT, Schmidt GA, Mann ME, Rind D, Waple A. 2001. Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder minimum. Science 294: 2149-2152.
42. Tannehill IR. 1938. Hurricanes their nature and history. Princeton University Press: Princeton, NJ; 257.
43. van Loon H, Shea DJ. 1999. A probable signal of the 11-year solar cycle in the troposphere of the northern hemisphere. Journal of Geophysical Research 26: 2893-2896.
44. van Loon H, Meehl GA, Arblaster JM. 2004. A decadal solar effect in the tropics in July-August. Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 66:18 1767-1778.
45. van Loon H, Meehl GA, Shea DJ. 2007. Coupled air-sea response to solar forcing in the Pacific region during northern winter. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres 112:D2 D02108.
46. Viereck RA, Puga LC. 1999. The NOAA Mg II core-to-wing solar index: Construction of a 20-year time series of chromospheric variability from multiple satellites. Journal of Geophysical Research 104: 9995-10, 005.
47. Viereck R, Puga L, McMullin D, Judge D, Weber M, Tobiska WK. 2001. The Mg II index: A proxy for solar EUV. Geophysical Research Letters 28: 1343-1346.
48. Wang Y, Wu C-C. 2004. Current understanding of tropical cyclone structure and intensity changes-A review. Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 87: 257-278.
49. White WB, Cayan DR, Lean J. 1998. Global upper ocean heat storage response to radiative forcng from changing solar irradiance and increasing greenhouse gas/aerosol concentrations. Journal of Geophysical Research 103: 21355-21366.
50. White WB, Lean J, Cayan DR, Dettinger MD. 1997. Response of global upper ocean temperature to changing solar irradiance. Journal of Geophysical Research 102: 3255-3266.