Dynamics of the plague-wildlife-human system in Central Asia are controlled by two epidemiological thresholds

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Volumn 108, Issue 35, 2011, Pages 14527-14532

  Samia, Noelle I ^a   Kausrud, Kyrre Linné ^b   Heesterbeek, Hans ^c   Ageyev, Vladimir ^d   Begon, Mike ^e   Chan, Kung Sik ^f   Stenseth, Nils C ^b  

^a NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF OSLO   (Norway)

^c UTRECHT UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

^d Masgut Aikimbayev National Scientific Center for Especially Dangerous Infections of the Ministry of Healthcare of the Republic of Kazakhstan   (Kazakhstan)

^e UNIVERSITY OF LIVERPOOL   (United Kingdom)

^f UNIVERSITY OF IOWA   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate forcing; Generalized threshold model; Spillover to the human population; Wildlife reservoir of Yersinia pestis

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; CLIMATE; FLEA; GERBIL; HUMAN; NONHUMAN; PLAGUE; PRIORITY JOURNAL; WILDLIFE; YERSINIA PESTIS;

ANIMALS; DISEASE RESERVOIRS; HUMANS; KAZAKHSTAN; PLAGUE; POPULATION DYNAMICS; RODENTIA; SIPHONAPTERA;

BACTERIA (MICROORGANISMS); RHOMBOMYS OPIMUS; RODENTIA; SIPHONAPTERA (FLEAS); YERSINIA PESTIS;

EID: 80052294340     PISSN: 00278424     EISSN: 10916490     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1015946108     Document Type: Article

References (21)

1. Stenseth N.C., et al. (2008) Plague: Past, present, and future. PLoS Med, 10.1371/journal. pmed.0050003.
2. Pollitzer R. (1954) Plague (World Health Organization, Geneva).
3. Gage K.L., Kosoy M.Y. (2005) Natural history of plague:Perspectives from more than a century of research. Annu Rev Entomol 50:505-528.
4. Pollitzer R. (1966) Plague and Plague Control in the Soviet Union (Fordham University, Bronx, NY).
5. Kausrud K.L., et al. (2007) Climatically-driven synchrony of gerbil populations allows large-scale plague outbreaks. Proc R Soc Lond B Biol Sci 274:1963-1969. (Pubitemid 47122196)
6. Stenseth N.C., et al. (2006) Plague dynamics are driven by climate variation. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103:13110-13115. (Pubitemid 44338924)
7. Eisen R.J., et al. (2006) Early-phase transmission of Yersinia pestis by unblocked fleas as a mechanism explaining rapidly spreading plague epizootics. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103:15380-15385. (Pubitemid 44625600)
8. Park S., et al. (2007) Statistical analysis of the dynamics of antibody loss to a diseasecausing agent:Plague in natural populations of great gerbils as an example. J R Soc Interface 4:57-64. (Pubitemid 46225431)
9. BegonM. (2006) Epizootiologic parameters for plague in Kazakhstan. Emerg Infect Dis 12:268-273.
10. Frigessi A., et al. (2005) Bayesian population dynamics of interacting species:Great gerbils and fleas in Kazakhstan. Biometrics 61:230-238. (Pubitemid 40380984)
11. Samia N.I., Chan K.S. (2011) Maximum likelihood estimation of a generalized threshold stochastic regression model. Biometrika 98:433-448.
12. Salkeld D.J., Salathé M., Stapp P., Jones J.H. (2010) Plague outbreaks in prairie dog populations explained by percolation thresholds of alternate host abundance. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107:14247-14250.
13. Sapozhnikov V., Serzhan O.S., Bezverkhni A.V., Kovaleva G.G., Kopbaev E.S. (2001) Plague in the Balkhash-Alakol Depression (Rakhat, Almaty, Kazakhstan).
14. Davis S., et al. (2004) Predictive thresholds for plague in Kazakhstan. Science 304:736-738. (Pubitemid 38560880)
15. Davis S., Trapman P., Leirs H., Begon M., Heesterbeek J.A.P. (2008) The abundance threshold for plague as a critical percolation phenomenon. Nature 454:634-637.
16. Keeling M.J., Gilligan C.A. (2000) Bubonic plague:A metapopulation model of a zoonosis. Proc Biol Sci 267:2219-2230.
17. Anderson R.M., May R.M. (1991) Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control (Oxford University Press, Oxford), p viii.
18. Krasnov B.R., Khokhlova I.S., Fielden L.J., Burdelova N.V. (2001) Effect of air temperature and humidity on the survival of pre-imaginal stages of two flea species (Siphonaptera:Pulicidae). J Med Entomol 38:629-637. (Pubitemid 33667334)
19. Samia N.I., Chan K.S., Stenseth N.C. (2007) A generalized threshold mixed model for analyzing nonnormal nonlinear time series, with application to plague in Kazakhstan. Biometrika 94:101-118. (Pubitemid 46410715)
20. Pinheiro J.C., Bates D.M. (2000) Mixed-Effects Models in S and S-PLUS (Springer, New York), p xvi.
21. Keeling M.J., Gilligan C.A. (2000) Metapopulation dynamics of bubonic plague. Nature 407:903-906.