A new model for 5-year risk of cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetes, from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR)

Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice

Volumn 93, Issue 2, 2011, Pages 276-284

  Zethelius, Björn ^a,b   Eliasson, Björn ^c   Eeg Olofsson, Katarina ^c   Svensson, Ann Marie ^d   Gudbjörnsdottir, Soffia ^a,b   Cederholm, Jan ^e  

^a UPPSALA UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

^b MEDICAL PRODUCTS AGENCY   (Sweden)

^c SAHLGRENSKA UNIVERSITY HOSPITAL   (Sweden)

^d Center of Registers in Region Vastra Gotaland   (Sweden)

^e UPPSALA UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

Author keywords

Cardiovascular diseases; Epidemiology; Mortality; Myocardial infarction; Risk; Stroke; Type 2 diabetes

Indexed keywords

HEMOGLOBIN A1C; HIGH DENSITY LIPOPROTEIN CHOLESTEROL;

ADULT; AGED; ARTICLE; BODY MASS; CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE; CARDIOVASCULAR RISK; CHOLESTEROL BLOOD LEVEL; CONTROLLED STUDY; DISEASE DURATION; DISEASE REGISTRY; FEMALE; HEART ATRIUM FIBRILLATION; HUMAN; MACROALBUMINURIA; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; MICROALBUMINURIA; NON INSULIN DEPENDENT DIABETES MELLITUS; ONSET AGE; PREDICTION; RISK FACTOR; SENSITIVITY AND SPECIFICITY; SMOKING HABIT; SWEDEN; SYSTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE;

ADULT; AGED; CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASES; DIABETES MELLITUS, TYPE 2; FEMALE; HUMANS; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; OBSERVATION; REGISTRIES; RISK FACTORS; SENSITIVITY AND SPECIFICITY; SWEDEN;

EID: 80051575127     PISSN: 01688227     EISSN: 18728227     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.diabres.2011.05.037     Document Type: Article

References (38)

1. Jackson R. Cardiovascular risk prediction: are we there yet?. Heart 2008, 94:1-3.
2. D'Agostino R.B., Vasan R.S., Pencina M.J., Wolf P.A., Cobain M., Kannel W.B., et al. General cardiovascular risk profile for use in primary care. The Framingham heart study. Circulation 2008, 117:743-753.
3. Conroy R.M., Pyörälä K., De Backer G., De Bacquer D., Wilhelmsen L., Graham I.M., et al. Estimation of ten year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in Europe: the SCORE project. Eur Heart J 2003, 24:987-1003.
4. Ferrario M., Chiodini P., Chambless L.E., Cesana G., Vanuzzo D., Panico S., et al. Prediction of coronary events in a low incidence population: assessing accuracy of the CUORE cohort study prediction equation. Int J Epidemiol 2005, 34:413-421.
5. Simmons R.K., Coleman R.L., Price H.C., Holman R.R., Khaw K.T., Wareham N.J., et al. Performance of the UK prospective diabetes study risk engine and the Framingham risk equations in estimating cardiovascular disease in the EPIC-Norfolk cohort. Diabetes Care 2009, 32:708-713.
6. Guzder R.N., Gatling W., Mullee M.A., Mehta R.L., Byrne C.D. Prognostic value of the Framingham cardiovascular risk equation and the UKPDS risk engine for coronary heart disease in newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes: results from a United Kingdom study. Diabet Med 2005, 22:554-562.
7. Yang X., So W.-Y., Kong A.P.S., Ma R.C.V., Ko G.T.C., Tong P.C.Y., et al. Development and validation of a total coronary heart disease risk score in type 2 diabetes mellitus. Am J Cardiol 2008, 101:596-601.
8. Stevens R.J., Kothari V., Adler A.I., Stratton I.M., Holman R.R. The UKPDS risk engine: a model for the risk of coronary heart disease in type II diabetes (UKPDS 56). Clin Sci 2001, 101:671-679.
9. Coleman R., Stevens R., Holman R. The Oxford risk engine: a cardiovascular risk calculator for individuals with or without type 2 diabetes. Diabetes 2007, 56(Suppl. (1)):A170.
10. Cederholm J., Eeg-Olofsson K., Eliasson B., Zethelius B., Nilsson P.M., Gudbjörnsdottir S. Risk prediction of cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetes: a risk equation from the Swedish National Diabetes Register. Diabetes Care 2008, 31:2038-2043.
11. Elley C.R., Robinson E., Kenealy T., Bramley D., Drury P.L. Derivation and validation of a new cardiovascular risk score for people with type 2 diabetes. The New Zealand diabetes cohort study. Diabetes Care 2010, 33:1347-1352.
12. National Collaborating Centre for Chronic Conditions.Type 2 diabetes: national clinical guideline for management in primary and secondary care (update); 2010 [accessed 7 June 2010], http://www.nice.org.uk/nicemedia/pdf/CG66FullGuideline0509.pdf.
13. Guidelines & Protocols Advisory Committee. Cardiovascular disease-primary prevention; 2010 [accessed 7 June 2010], available from http://www.bcguidelines.ca/gpac/pdf/cvd.pdf.
14. Stephens J.W., Ambler G., Vallance P., Betteridge D.J., Humphries S.E., Hurel S.J. Cardiovascular risk and diabetes. Are the methods of risk prediction satisfactory?. Eur J Cardiovasc Prev Rehabil 2004, 11:521-528.
15. van der Heijden A.A., Ortegon M.M., Niessen L.W., Nijpels G., Dekker J.M. Prediction of coronary heart disease risk in a general, pre-diabetic, and diabetic population during 10 years of follow-up: accuracy of the Framingham, SCORE, and UKPDS risk functions: the Hoorn study. Diabetes Care 2009, 32:2094-2098.
16. Kengne A.P., Patel A., Colagiuri S., Heller S., Hamet P., Marre M., et al. The Framingham and UK prospective diabetes study (UKPDS) risk equations do not reliably estimate the probability of cardiovascular events in a large ethnically diverse sample of patients with diabetes: the action in diabetes and vascular disease: Preterax and Diamicron-MR controlled evaluation (ADVANCE) study. Diabetologia 2010, 53:821-831.
17. Chamnan P., Simmons R.K., Sharp S.J., Griffin S.J., Wareham N.J. Cardiovascular risk assessment scores for people with diabetes: a systematic review. Diabetologia. 2009, 52:2001-2014.
18. van Dieren S., Peelen L.M., Nöthlings U., van der Schouw Y.T., Rutten G.E.H.M., Beulens J.W.J., et al. External validation of the UK prospective diabetes study (UKPDS) risk engine in patients with type 2 diabetes. Diabetologia 2011, 54:264-270.
19. Gudbjörnsdottir S., Cederholm J., Nilsson P.M., Eliasson B. The National Diabetes Register in Sweden: an implementation of the St. Vincent declaration for quality improvement in diabetes care. Diabetes Care 2003, 26:1270-1276.
20. Eliasson B., Cederholm J., Nilsson P., Gudbjörnsdottir S. The gap between guidelines and reality: type 2 diabetes in a national diabetes register 1996-2003. Diabet Med 2005, 22:1420-1426.
21. Eeg-Olofsson K., Cederholm J., Nilsson P.M., Zethelius B., Gudbjörnsdottir S., Eliasson B., et al. Risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality in overweight and obese patients with type 2 diabetes: an observational study in 13,087 patients. Diabetologia 2009, 52:65-73.
22. Cederholm J., Zethelius B., Nilsson P.M., Eeg-Olofsson K., Eliasson B., Gudbjörnsdottir S. Effect of tight control of HbA1c and blood pressure on cardiovascular diseases in type 2 diabetes: An observational study from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR). Diabetes Res Clin Pract 2009, 86:74-81.
23. Eeg-Olofsson K., Cederholm J., Nilsson P.M., Zethelius B., Gudbjörnsdóttir S., Eliasson B., et al. Glycemic control and cardiovascular disease in 7454 patients with type 1 diabetes: an observational study from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR). Diabetes Care 2010, 33:1640-1646.
24. Cederholm J, Gudbjörnsdottir S, Eliasson B, Zethelius B, Eeg-Olofsson K, Nilsson PM, on behalf of the NDR. Systolic blood pressure and risk of cardiovascular diseases in type 2 diabetes: an observational study from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR). J Hypert 2010; 28: 2026-35.
25. Hoelzel W., Weykamp C., Jeppsson J.O., Miedema K., Barr J.R., Goodall I., et al. IFCC reference system for measurement of hemoglobin A1c in human blood and the national standardization schemes in the United States, Japan, and Sweden: a method-comparison study. Clin Chem 2004, 50:166-174.
26. Merlo J., Lindblad U., Pessah-Rasmussen H., Hedblad B., Rastam J., Isacsson S.O., et al. Comparison of different procedures to identify probable cases of myocardial infarction and stroke in two Swedish prospective cohort studies using local and national routine registers. Eur J Epidemiol 2000, 16:235-243.
27. Tunstall-Pedoe H., Kuulasmaa K., Amouyel P., Arveiler D., Rajakangas A.M., Pajak A. Myocardial infarction and coronary deaths in the World Health Organization MONICA project. Registration procedures, event rates, and case-fatality rates in 38 populations from 21 countries in four continents. Circulation 1994, 90:583-612.
28. Ingelsson E., Schaefer E.J., Pencina M.J., Wilson P.W.F., D'Agostino R.B., Vasan R.S., et al. Clinical utility of different lipid measures for prediction of coronary heart disease in men and women. JAMA 2007, 298:776-785.
29. Taskinen M-R, Barter PJ, Ehnholm C, Sullivan DR, Mann K, Keech AC, et al, on behalf of the FIELD study investigators. Ability of traditional lipid ratios and apolipoprotein ratios to predict cardiovascular risk in people with type 2 diabetes. Diabetologia 2010; 53: 1846-55.
30. McGeechan K., Macaskill P., Irwig L., Liew G., Wong T.Y. Assessing new biomarkers and predictive models for use in clinical practice. A clinician's guide. Arch Intern Med 2008, 168:2304-2310.
31. Cook N.R. Use and misuse of the receiver operating characteristic curve in risk prediction. Circulation 2007, 115:928-935.
32. Gaede P., Lund-Andersen H., Parving H.H., Pedersen O. Effect of a multifactorial intervention on mortality in type 2 diabetes. N Engl J Med 2008, 358:580-591.
33. Benner J.S., Erhardt L., Flammer M., Moller R.A., Rajicic N., Changela K., et al. A novel programme to evaluate and communicate 10-year risk of CHD reduces predicted risk and improves patients' modifiable risk factor profile. Int J Clin Pract 2008, 62:1484-1498.
34. Kinmonth A.L., Wareham N.J., Hardeman W., Sutton S., Prevost A.T., Griffin S.J., et al. Efficacy of a theory-based behavioural intervention to increase physical activity in an at-risk group in primary care (ProActive UK): a randomised trial. Lancet 2008, 371:41-48.
35. Price H.C., Tucker L., Griffin S.J., Holman R.R. The impact of individualised cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimates and lifestyle advice on physical activity in individuals at high risk of CVD: a pilot 2×2 factorial understanding risk trial. Cardiovasc Diabetol 2008, 7:21.
36. Blind E., Dunder K., de Graeff P.A., Abadie E. Rosiglitazone: a European regulatory perspective. Diabetologia 2011, 54(2):213-218.
37. National Institute of Clinical Excellence (NICE). Management of type 2 diabetes: management of blood pressure and blood lipids (Guideline H) 2002, NICE, London.
38. Executive summary of the third report of the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) expert panel on detection, evaluation, and treatment of high blood cholesterol in adults (Adult Treatment Panel III). JAMA 2001; 285: 2486-97.