Discriminating between climate observations in terms of their ability to improve an ensemble of climate predictions

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

Volumn 108, Issue 26, 2011, Pages 10405-10409

  Huang, Yi ^a   Leroy, Stephen ^a   Goody, Richard M ^a,b  

^a HARVARD UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b NONE   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate change; Climate model; Climate monitoring; Remote sensing

Indexed keywords

AIR TEMPERATURE; ARTICLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; METHODOLOGY; PREDICTION AND FORECASTING; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SURFACE PROPERTY; UNCERTAINTY;

EID: 79960610089     PISSN: 00278424     EISSN: 10916490     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1107403108     Document Type: Article

References (20)

1. Solomon S, et al., ed. (2007) Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge Univ Press, Cambridge, UK) p 996.
2. Smagorinsky J,Minakoda Kl, Strickler RF (1970) The relative importance of variables in initial conditions for dynamical weather prediction. Tellus 22:141-157.
3. Arnold CP, Dey CH (1986) Observing-systems simulation experiments: Past, present and future. Bull Am Meteoro Soc 67:687-695.
4. Gelman A, Carlin J, Stern H, Rubin D (2003) Bayesian Data Analysis (Chapman & Hall, Boca Raton, FL), 2nd Ed, p 668.
5. Liebelt PB (1967) An Introduction to Optimal Estimation (Addison-Wesley, Reading, MA) p 273.
6. Sivia D (2007) Data Analysis: A Bayesian Tutorial (Oxford Univ Press, Oxford, UK) p 189.
7. Leroy S, Anderson J, Ohring G (2008) Climate signal detection times and constraints on climate benchmark accuracy requirements. J Climate 21:841-846. (Pubitemid 351395628)
8. Bernstein L, et al. (1996) Very narrow band model calculations of atmospheric fluxes and cooling rate. J Atmos Sci 53:2887-2904.
9. Berk A, et al. (1998) MODTRAN cloud and multiple scattering upgrades with application to AVIRIS. Remote Sens Environment 65:367-375. (Pubitemid 29360711)
10. Leroy S, Anderson J, Dykema J (2006) Testing climate models using GPS radio occultation: A sensitivity analysis. J Geophys Res 111:D17105, 10.1029/2005JD006145.
11. Stainforth DA, et al. (2005) Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature 433:403-406. (Pubitemid 40203317)
12. Fisher R (1973) Statistical Methods for Research Workers (Hafner Publishing Co, New York), 14th Ed, p 353.
13. Giorgi F, Mearns L (2002) Calculation of average, uncertainty range, and reliability of regional climate changes from AOGCM simulations via the "reliability ensemble averaging" (REA) method. J Climate 15:1141-1158.
14. Smith R, Tebaldi C, Nychka D, Mearns L (2009) Bayesian modeling of uncertainty in ensembles of climate models. J Am Stat Assoc 104:97-116.
15. Tebaldi C, Smith R, Nychka D, Mearns L (2005) Quantifying uncertainty in projections of regional climate change: A Bayesian approach to the analysis of multimodel ensembles. J Climate 18:1524-1540. (Pubitemid 40849766)
16. Allen M (1999) Do-it-yourself climate prediction. Nature 401:642.
17. Ramanathan V, et al. (1989) Cloud-radiative forcing and climate results from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment. Science 243:57-63. (Pubitemid 19304702)
18. Wong T, et al. (2006) Reexamination of the observed decadal variability of the Earth radiation budget using altitude-corrected ERBE/ERBS nonscanner WFOV data. J Climate 19:4028-4040.
19. Wielicki B, et al. (1996) Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES): An earth observing system experiment. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:853-868.
20. Aumann H, et al. (2003) AIRS/AMSU/HSB on the Aqua mission: Design, science objectives, data products, and processing systems. IEEE Trans Geosci Remote Sensing 41:253-264.