Multi-decadal variability of drought risk, eastern Australia

Hydrological Processes

Volumn 18, Issue 11, 2004, Pages 2039-2050

  Kiem, Anthony S ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NEWCASTLE   (Australia)

Author keywords

Climate variability; Drought risk; El Ni o Southern Oscillation (ENSO); Hydrological impacts of ENSO; Inter decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO); La Ni a; Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO); Water resource management

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; OSCILLATIONS; RESERVOIRS (WATER); RISKS;

DROUGHT RISKS; DROUGHT SECURITY; IPO MODULATION; MULTI-DECADAL TIME-SCALES;

DROUGHT;

CLIMATE VARIATION; DECADAL VARIATION; DROUGHT; EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION; HYDROLOGICAL REGIME; HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE; RESOURCE MANAGEMENT; STREAMFLOW;

AUSTRALASIA; AUSTRALIA;

EID: 4243187637     PISSN: 08856087     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/hyp.1460     Document Type: Article

References (29)

1. Allan RJ. 2000. ENSO and climatic variability in the last 150 years. In El Niño and the Southern Oscillation: Mulit-scale Variabiliry, Global and Regional Impacts, Diaz HF, Markgraf V (eds). Cambridge University Press: Cambridge; 3-56.
2. Allan RJ, Lindesay JA, Reason CJC. 1995. Multi-decadal variability in the Climate System over the Indian Ocean Region during the Austral Summer. Journal of Climate 8(7): 1853-1873.
3. Berghout B. 2001. Water Resources Source Supply Security Analysis: Technical Report-Development of Source Model Mass Balance Modules. Internal Report, Hunter Water Corporation, Newcastle, Australia.
4. Chìew FHA, Piechota TC, Dracup JA, McMahon TA. 1998. El Niño Southern Oscillation and Australian rainfall, streamflow and drought-links and potential for forecasting. Journal of Hydrology 204(1-4): 138- 149.
5. Folland CK, Parker DE, Colman AW, Washington R. 1999. Large scale modes of ocean surface temperature since the late nineteenth century. In Beyond El Niño: Decadal and inter-decadal Climate Variability, Navarra A (eds). Springer: Berlin; 73-102.
6. Folland CK, A. RJ, J. SM, B. MA. 2002. Relative influences of the inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation and ENSO on the South Pacific Convergence Zone. Geophysical Research Letters 29(13): 1643 DOI:10.1029/2001GL014201.
7. Franks SW. 1998. Rainfall Variability in the Williams River Catchment: Preliminary Investigation of the Effects of the Southern Oscillation and the Implications for Land and Water Resource Management in the Hunter Region. Research Report No. 163.04.1998, Deptartment of Civil, Surveying and Environmental Engineering, University of Newcastle, Australia.
8. Franks SW. 2002a. Identification of a change in climate state using regional flood data. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 6(l): 11-16.
9. Franks SW. 2002b. Assessing hydrological change: deterministic general circulation models or spurious solar correlation? Hydrological Processes 16(2): 559-564.
10. Franks SW, Kuczera G. 2002. Flood frequency analysis: evidence and implications of secular climate variability, New South Wales. Water Resources Research 38(5): 1062 DOI:10.1029/2001WR000232.
11. Gershunov A, Barnett TP. 1998. Inter-decadal modulation of ENSO teleconnections. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79(12): 2715-2725.
12. Hogg RV, Tanis EA. 1988. Probability and Statistical Inference. Macmillan Publishing: New York.
13. HWC. 2000. Hunter Water Corporation: Drought Management Plan. Internal Report, Hunter Water Corporation, Newcastle, Australia.
14. Kaplan A, Cane MA, Kushnir Y, Clement AC, Blumenthal MB, Rajagopalan B. 1998. Analyses of global sea surface temperature 1856-1991. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 103(C9): 18567-18589.
15. Kiem AS, Franks SW. 2001. On the identification of ENSO-induced rainfall and runoff variability: a comparison of methods and indices. Hydrological Sciences Journal 46(5): 715-727.
16. Kiem AS, Franks SW, Kuczera G. 2003. Multi-decadal variability of flood risk. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30(2): 1035 DOI:10.1029/2002GL015992.
17. Latif M, Barnett TP. 1994. Causes of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America. Science 266(5185):634-637.
18. Mantua NJ, Hare SR, Zhang Y, Wallace JM, Francis RC. 1997. A Pacific inter-decadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78(6): 1069 -1079.
19. McPhaden MJ, Zhang D. 2002. Slowdown of the meridional overturning circulation of the upper Pacific Ocean. Nature 415: 603-608.
20. Piechota TC, Chiew FHS, Dracup JA, McMahon TA. 2001. Development of exceedance probability streamflow forecast. Journal of Hydrological Engineering 6(l): 20-28.
21. Power S, Casey T, Folland C, Colman A, Mehta V. 1999. Inter-decadal modulation of the impact of ENSO on Australia. Climate Dynamics 15(5): 319-324.
22. Power S, Tseitkin F, Torok S, Lavery B, Dahni R, McAvaney B. 1998. Australian temperature, Australian rainfall and the Southern Oscillation, 1910- 1992-coherent variability and recent changes. Australian Meteorological Magazine 47(2): 85-101.
23. Reid GC. 2000. Solar variability and the Earth's climate: introduction and overview. Space Science Reviews 94: 1-11.
24. Salinger MJ, Renwick JA, Mullan AB. 2001. Inter-decadal Pacific oscillation and South Pacific climate. International Journal of Climatology 21(14): 1705-1721.
25. Samso B, Guenni L. 1999. A stochastic model for tropical rainfall at a single location. Journal of Hydrology 214(1-4): 64-73.
26. Simpson HJ, Cane MA, Herczeg AL, Zebiak SE, Simpson JH. 1993. Annual river discharge in southeastern Australia related to El-Niño Southern Oscillation forecasts of sea surface temperatures. Water Resources Research 29(11): 3671-3680.
27. White WB, Lean J, Cayan DR, Dettinger MD. 1997. Response of global upper ocean temperature to changing solar irradiance. Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans 102(C2): 3255-3266.
28. Wooldridge SA, Franks SW, Kalma JD. 2001. Hydrological implications of the Southern Oscillation: variability of the rainfall-runoff relationship. Hydrological Sciences Journal 46(l): 73-88.
29. Zhang XG, Casey TM. 1992. Long term variation in the Southern Oscillation and the relationship with rainfall in Australia. Australian Meteorological Magazine 40: 211-225.