메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 29, Issue 5, 2011, Pages 519-534

An econometric model for forecasting private construction investment in Hong Kong

Author keywords

Crowding in effect; Private construction investment; Regression analysis; Stationarity; Vector error correction model

Indexed keywords

CONSTRUCTION INVESTMENTS; CONSTRUCTION MARKETS; CROWDING-IN EFFECT; DECISION MAKERS; ECONOMETRIC MODEL; ECONOMIC CONDITION; END-USERS; GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCTS; HONG-KONG; MULTIPLE REGRESSION MODEL; NON-STATIONARY TIME SERIES; NONSTATIONARY DATA; PUBLIC INVESTMENTS; PUBLIC SECTOR; RELIABLE MODELS; STATIONARITY; UNEMPLOYMENT RATES; VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION; VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL;

EID: 79959216568     PISSN: 01446193     EISSN: 1466433X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/01446193.2011.570356     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (16)

References (74)
  • 1
    • 84903780484 scopus 로고
    • Is government spending stimulative?
    • Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago
    • Aashuer, D.A. (1987) Is government spending stimulative? Staff Memorandum, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago.
    • (1987) Staff Memorandum
    • Aashuer, D.A.1
  • 2
  • 4
    • 2942690794 scopus 로고
    • Models of UK private sector quarterly construction demand
    • Akintoye, A. and Skitmore, M. (1994) Models of UK private sector quarterly construction demand. Construction Management and Economics, 12(1), 3-13.
    • (1994) Construction Management and Economics , vol.12 , Issue.1 , pp. 3-13
    • Akintoye, A.1    Skitmore, M.2
  • 5
    • 79959257009 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The determinants of private construction investment in Jordan: An empirical study (1972-1996)
    • Al-Abdulrazag, B.A. (2003) The determinants of private construction investment in Jordan: an empirical study (1972-1996). Damascus University Journal, 19, 15-35.
    • (2003) Damascus University Journal , vol.19 , pp. 15-35
    • Al-Abdulrazag, B.A.1
  • 6
    • 0346413321 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A vector error-correction forecasting model of the US economy
    • Anderson, R.G., Hoffman, D.L. and Rasche, R.H. (2002) A vector error-correction forecasting model of the US economy. Journal of Macroeconomics, 24(4), 569-98.
    • (2002) Journal of Macroeconomics , vol.24 , Issue.4 , pp. 569-598
    • Anderson, R.G.1    Hoffman, D.L.2    Rasche, R.H.3
  • 8
    • 0003691315 scopus 로고
    • Duxbury Press, Belmont, CA. Briscoe, G. (1988) The Economics of the Construction Industry, Mitchell, London
    • Bowerman, B.L. and O'Connell, R.T. (1993) Forecasting and Time Series: An Applied Approach, Duxbury Press, Belmont, CA. Briscoe, G. (1988) The Economics of the Construction Industry, Mitchell, London.
    • (1993) Forecasting and Time Series: An Applied Approach
    • Bowerman, B.L.1    O'Connell, R.T.2
  • 9
  • 10
    • 33745746826 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sources of German unemployment: A structural vector error correction analysis
    • Brüggemann, R. (2006) Sources of German unemployment: a structural vector error correction analysis. Empirical Economics, 31(2), 409-31.
    • (2006) Empirical Economics , vol.31 , Issue.2 , pp. 409-431
    • Brüggemann, R.1
  • 11
    • 22144496064 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Monitoring financial health of contractors at the aftermath of the Asian economic turmoil: A case study in Hong Kong
    • Chan, J.K.W., Tam, C.M. and Cheung, R. (2005) Monitoring financial health of contractors at the aftermath of the Asian economic turmoil: a case study in Hong Kong. Construction Management and Economics, 23(5), 451-8.
    • (2005) Construction Management and Economics , vol.23 , Issue.5 , pp. 451-458
    • Chan, J.K.W.1    Tam, C.M.2    Cheung, R.3
  • 12
    • 22144450998 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The relationship between consumption, income and wealth in Hong Kong
    • Cutler, J. (2005) The relationship between consumption, income and wealth in Hong Kong. Pacific Economics Review, 10(2), 217-41.
    • (2005) Pacific Economics Review , vol.10 , Issue.2 , pp. 217-241
    • Cutler, J.1
  • 13
    • 85036258669 scopus 로고
    • Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root
    • Dickey, D.A. and Fuller, W.A. (1979) Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-31.
    • (1979) Journal of American Statistical Association , vol.74 , Issue.366 , pp. 427-431
    • Dickey, D.A.1    Fuller, W.A.2
  • 15
    • 84945763545 scopus 로고
    • Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distributions
    • Doan, T., Litterman, R.B. and Sims, C.A. (1984) Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distributions. Econometric Reviews, 3, 1-144.
    • (1984) Econometric Reviews , vol.3 , pp. 1-144
    • Doan, T.1    Litterman, R.B.2    Sims, C.A.3
  • 17
    • 0000013567 scopus 로고
    • Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation and testing
    • Engle, R.F. and Granger, C.W.J. (1987) Co-integration and error correction: representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica, 55(2), 251-76.
    • (1987) Econometrica , vol.55 , Issue.2 , pp. 251-276
    • Engle, R.F.1    Granger, C.W.J.2
  • 18
    • 0027714050 scopus 로고
    • The real effects of public investment on private investment
    • Erenburg, S.J. (1993) The real effects of public investment on private investment. Applied Economics, 25(6), 831-37.
    • (1993) Applied Economics , vol.25 , Issue.6 , pp. 831-837
    • Erenburg, S.J.1
  • 20
    • 0033944375 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting construction industry demand, price and productivity in Singapore: The Box-Jenkins approach
    • Goh, B.H. and Teo, H.P. (2000) Forecasting construction industry demand, price and productivity in Singapore: the Box-Jenkins approach. Construction Management and Economics, 18(5), 607-18.
    • (2000) Construction Management and Economics , vol.18 , Issue.5 , pp. 607-618
    • Goh, B.H.1    Teo, H.P.2
  • 21
    • 33748065484 scopus 로고
    • Spurious regressions in econometrics
    • Granger, C.W. and Newbold, P. (1974) Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111-20.
    • (1974) Journal of Econometrics , vol.2 , Issue.2 , pp. 111-120
    • Granger, C.W.1    Newbold, P.2
  • 26
    • 28044455188 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Monte Carlo study on the pitfalls in determining deterministic components in cointegrating models
    • Hjelm, G. and Johansson, M.W. (2005) A Monte Carlo study on the pitfalls in determining deterministic components in cointegrating models. Journal of Macroeconomics, 27(4), 691-703.
    • (2005) Journal of Macroeconomics , vol.27 , Issue.4 , pp. 691-703
    • Hjelm, G.1    Johansson, M.W.2
  • 28
    • 77950961067 scopus 로고
    • Forecasting nonresidential building construction
    • Hodgins, C.D. and Tanner, J.E. (1973) Forecasting nonresidential building construction. Canadian Journal of Economics, 6(1), 79-89.
    • (1973) Canadian Journal of Economics , vol.6 , Issue.1 , pp. 79-89
    • Hodgins, C.D.1    Tanner, J.E.2
  • 29
    • 79959267421 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hong Kong Monetary Authority, August, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Hong Kong
    • Hong Kong Monetary Authority (1999) Real Interest Rate in Hong Kong, Quarterly Bulletin, August, Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Hong Kong.
    • (1999) Real Interest Rate In Hong Kong, Quarterly Bulletin
  • 32
    • 77049109436 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The public thermostat, political responsiveness and error-correction: Border control and asylum in Britain, 1994-2007
    • Jennings, W. (2009) The public thermostat, political responsiveness and error-correction: border control and asylum in Britain, 1994-2007. British Journal of Political Science, 39(4), 847-70.
    • (2009) British Journal of Political Science , vol.39 , Issue.4 , pp. 847-870
    • Jennings, W.1
  • 34
    • 84981579311 scopus 로고
    • Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration-with applications to the demand for money
    • Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1990) Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration-with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169-210.
    • (1990) Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics , vol.52 , Issue.2 , pp. 169-210
    • Johansen, S.1    Juselius, K.2
  • 35
    • 44049117018 scopus 로고
    • Testing structural hypothesis in a multivariate cointegration analysis of PPP and the UIP for UK
    • Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1992) Testing structural hypothesis in a multivariate cointegration analysis of PPP and the UIP for UK. Journal of Econometrics, 53(1 3), 169-209.
    • (1992) Journal of Econometrics , vol.53 , Issue.1-3 , pp. 169-209
    • Johansen, S.1    Juselius, K.2
  • 36
    • 0025474919 scopus 로고
    • Preliminary investigation into formulating a demand forecasting model for industrial construction
    • Killingsworth Jr., R.A. (1990) Preliminary investigation into formulating a demand forecasting model for industrial construction. Cost Engineering, 32(8), 11-15.
    • (1990) Cost Engineering , vol.32 , Issue.8 , pp. 11-15
    • Killingsworth, R.A.1
  • 37
    • 0034472514 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Government intervention in the economy: A comparative analysis of Singapore and Hong Kong
    • Lam, N.M.K. (2000) Government intervention in the economy: a comparative analysis of Singapore and Hong Kong. Public Administration and Development, 20, 397-421.
    • (2000) Public Administration and Development , vol.20 , pp. 397-421
    • Lam, N.M.K.1
  • 38
    • 84952504842 scopus 로고
    • Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions-five years of experience
    • Litterman, R.B. (1986) Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions-five years of experience. Journal of Business & Economics Statistics, 4, 25-38.
    • (1986) Journal of Business & Economics Statistics , vol.4 , pp. 25-38
    • Litterman, R.B.1
  • 40
    • 84926951132 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Univariate time series analysis
    • Lütkepohl, H. and Krätzig, M. (eds), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
    • Lütkepohl, H. (2004a) Univariate time series analysis, in Lütkepohl, H. and Krätzig, M. (eds) Applied Time Series Econometrics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 8-85.
    • (2004) Applied Time Series Econometrics , pp. 8-85
    • Lütkepohl, H.1
  • 41
    • 84926953255 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Vector autoregressive and vector error correction models
    • Lütkepohl, H. and Krätzig, M. (eds), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
    • Lütkepohl, H. (2004b) Vector autoregressive and vector error correction models, in Lütkepohl, H. and Krätzig, M. (eds) Applied Time Series Econometrics, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 86-158.
    • (2004) Applied Time Series Econometrics , pp. 86-158
    • Lütkepohl, H.1
  • 42
    • 0002378331 scopus 로고
    • Critical values for cointegration tests
    • Engle, R.F. and Granger, C.W.J. (eds), Oxford University Press, Oxford
    • MacKinnon, J.G. (1991) Critical values for cointegration tests, in Engle, R.F. and Granger, C.W.J. (eds) Long-run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration, Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp. 267-76.
    • (1991) Long-run Economic Relationships: Readings In Cointegration , pp. 267-276
    • Mackinnon, J.G.1
  • 44
    • 33947518631 scopus 로고
    • Modelling the dynamic interactions among crime, deterrence and social-economic variables: Evidence from a vector error-correction model
    • Masih, R. (1995) Modelling the dynamic interactions among crime, deterrence and social-economic variables: evidence from a vector error-correction model. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, 39(3-4), 411-16.
    • (1995) Mathematics and Computers In Simulation , vol.39 , Issue.3-4 , pp. 411-416
    • Masih, R.1
  • 46
    • 2142750898 scopus 로고
    • The disparity between construction cost and tender price movements
    • McCaffer, R., McCaffrey, M.J. and Thorpe, A. (1983) The disparity between construction cost and tender price movements. Construction Papers, 2(2), 17-27.
    • (1983) Construction Papers , vol.2 , Issue.2 , pp. 17-27
    • McCaffer, R.1    McCaffrey, M.J.2    Thorpe, A.3
  • 47
    • 4544321207 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Do public investments crowd out private investments? Fresh evidence from Fiji
    • Narayan, P.K. (2004) Do public investments crowd out private investments? Fresh evidence from Fiji. Journal of Policy Modeling, 26(6), 747-53.
    • (2004) Journal of Policy Modeling , vol.26 , Issue.6 , pp. 747-753
    • Narayan, P.K.1
  • 49
    • 3242740050 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An integrated regression analysis and time series model for construction tender price forecasting
    • Ng, S.T., Cheung, S.O., Skitmore, M. and Wong, T.C.Y. (2004) An integrated regression analysis and time series model for construction tender price forecasting. Construction Management and Economics, 22, 483-93.
    • (2004) Construction Management and Economics , vol.22 , pp. 483-493
    • Ng, S.T.1    Cheung, S.O.2    Skitmore, M.3    Wong, T.C.Y.4
  • 53
    • 0035578624 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On the effects of public investment on private investment: What crowds in what?
    • Pereira, A.M. (2001) On the effects of public investment on private investment: what crowds in what? Public Finance Review, 29(1), 3-25.
    • (2001) Public Finance Review , vol.29 , Issue.1 , pp. 3-25
    • Pereira, A.M.1
  • 55
    • 78650246656 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Cointegration and modelling the long run
    • Scarborough, E. and Tanenbaum, E. (eds), Oxford University Press, Oxford
    • Price, S. (1998) Cointegration and modelling the long run, in Scarborough, E. and Tanenbaum, E. (eds) Research Strategies in the Social Sciences: A Guide to New Approaches, Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp. 156-90.
    • (1998) Research Strategies In the Social Sciences: A Guide to New Approaches , pp. 156-190
    • Price, S.1
  • 58
    • 3242697377 scopus 로고
    • Methodology and method for pricelevel forecasting
    • Runeson, G. (1988) Methodology and method for pricelevel forecasting. Construction Management and Economics, 6, 45-55.
    • (1988) Construction Management and Economics , vol.6 , pp. 45-55
    • Runeson, G.1
  • 59
    • 0002715891 scopus 로고
    • Tendering and the price level in the New Zealand building industry
    • Runeson, G. and Bennett, J. (1983) Tendering and the price level in the New Zealand building industry. Construction Papers, 2(2), 49-55.
    • (1983) Construction Papers , vol.2 , Issue.2 , pp. 49-55
    • Runeson, G.1    Bennett, J.2
  • 60
    • 19044371729 scopus 로고
    • Testing for unit roots in autoregressive-moving average models of unknown order
    • Said, E.S. and Dickey, D.A. (1984) Testing for unit roots in autoregressive-moving average models of unknown order. Biometrika, 71(3), 599-607.
    • (1984) Biometrika , vol.71 , Issue.3 , pp. 599-607
    • Said, E.S.1    Dickey, D.A.2
  • 62
    • 0001293840 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dynamic causal chain of money, output, interest rate and prices in Malaysia: Evidence based on vector error-correction modeling analysis
    • Tan, H.B. and Baharumshah, A.Z. (1999) Dynamic causal chain of money, output, interest rate and prices in Malaysia: evidence based on vector error-correction modeling analysis. International Economic Journal, 13(1), 103-20.
    • (1999) International Economic Journal , vol.13 , Issue.1 , pp. 103-120
    • Tan, H.B.1    Baharumshah, A.Z.2
  • 64
    • 0000023662 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Causal relationship between construction flow and GDP: Evidence from Hong Kong
    • Tse, R.Y.C. and Ganesan, S. (1997) Causal relationship between construction flow and GDP: evidence from Hong Kong. Construction Management and Economics, 15(4), 371-6.
    • (1997) Construction Management and Economics , vol.15 , Issue.4 , pp. 371-376
    • Tse, R.Y.C.1    Ganesan, S.2
  • 65
    • 0032720905 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Matching housing supply and demand: An empirical study of Hong Kong's market
    • Tse, R.Y.C., Ho, C.W. and Ganesan, S. (1999) Matching housing supply and demand: an empirical study of Hong Kong's market. Construction Management and Economics, 17(5), 625-33.
    • (1999) Construction Management and Economics , vol.17 , Issue.5 , pp. 625-633
    • Tse, R.Y.C.1    Ho, C.W.2    Ganesan, S.3
  • 66
    • 0011739271 scopus 로고
    • United Nations Industrial Development Organization, Vienna
    • Turin, D.A. (1969) The Construction Industry, United Nations Industrial Development Organization, Vienna.
    • (1969) The Construction Industry
    • Turin, D.A.1
  • 68
    • 0034407798 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting the Euro exchange rate using vector correction models
    • Van Aarle, B., Boss, M. and Hlouskova, J. (2000) Forecasting the Euro exchange rate using vector correction models. Review of World Economics, 136(2), 232-58.
    • (2000) Review of World Economics , vol.136 , Issue.2 , pp. 232-258
    • van Aarle, B.1    Boss, M.2    Hlouskova, J.3
  • 69
    • 0036093952 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Public and private investment in the United States and Canada
    • Voss, G.M. (2002) Public and private investment in the United States and Canada. Economic Modelling, 19(4), 641-64.
    • (2002) Economic Modelling , vol.19 , Issue.4 , pp. 641-664
    • Voss, G.M.1
  • 70
    • 33947544669 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting construction manpower demand: A vector error correction model
    • Wong, J.M.W., Chan, A.P.C. and Chiang, Y.H. (2007) Forecasting construction manpower demand: a vector error correction model. Building and Environment, 42(8), 3030-41.
    • (2007) Building and Environment , vol.42 , Issue.8 , pp. 3030-3041
    • Wong, J.M.W.1    Chan, A.P.C.2    Chiang, Y.H.3
  • 71
  • 72
    • 78650241304 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting construction tender price index in Hong Kong using vector error-correction model
    • Wong, J.M.W. and Ng, S.T. (2010) Forecasting construction tender price index in Hong Kong using vector error-correction model. Construction Management and Economics, 28(12), 1255-68.
    • (2010) Construction Management and Economics , vol.28 , Issue.12 , pp. 1255-1268
    • Wong, J.M.W.1    Ng, S.T.2
  • 74
    • 2942659467 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A longitudinal analysis on the relationship between construction output and GDP in Hong Kong
    • Yiu, C.Y., Lu, X.H., Leung, M.Y. and Jin, W.X. (2004) A longitudinal analysis on the relationship between construction output and GDP in Hong Kong. Construction Management and Economics, 22(4), 339-45.
    • (2004) Construction Management and Economics , vol.22 , Issue.4 , pp. 339-345
    • Yiu, C.Y.1    Lu, X.H.2    Leung, M.Y.3    Jin, W.X.4


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.