Short-term response to the North Atlantic Oscillation but no long-term effects of climate change on the reproductive success of an alpine bird

Journal of Ornithology

Volumn 152, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 631-641

  Barnagaud, Jean Yves ^a   Crochet, Pierre André ^a   Magnani, Yann ^b   Laurent, Ariane Bernard ^b   Menoni, Emmanuel ^b   Novoa, Claude ^b   Gimenez, Olivier ^a  

^a CENTRE D ECOLOGIE FONCTIONNELLE ET EVOLUTIVE   (France)

^b OFFICE NATIONAL DE LA CHASSE ET DE LA FAUNE SAUVAGE   (France)

Author keywords

Climate packages; Galliforms; Mountain avifauna; NAO; Reproductive success; Tetrao tetrix

Indexed keywords

BEHAVIORAL RESPONSE; BIRD; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION; POPULATION DYNAMICS; PRODUCTIVITY; PROXY CLIMATE RECORD; REPRODUCTIVE SUCCESS;

ALPS;

AVES; GALLIFORMES; TETRAO TETRIX; TETRAONIDAE;

EID: 79958768296     PISSN: 21937192     EISSN: 21937206     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10336-010-0623-8     Document Type: Article

References (81)

1. Archaux F (2004) Breeding upwards when climate is becoming warmer: no bird response in the French Alps. Ibis 146: 138-144.
2. Ascencio E (1983) Aspects climatologiques des départements de la région Provence- Alpes-Côte d'Azur, Monographie no2. Ministère des Transports, Direction de la Météorologie.
3. Baines D, Wilson IA, Beeley G (1996) Timing of breeding in black grouse Tetrao tetrix and capercaillie Tetrao urogallus and distribution of insect food for the chicks. Ibis 138: 181-187.
4. Bates D, Sarkar D (2008) lme4: linear mixed-effects models using S4 classes. R package version 0. 999375-28. http://lme4. r-forge. r-project. org/.
5. Beniston M (2005) Mountain climates and climatic change: an overview of processes focusing on the European Alps. Pure Appl Geoph 162: 1587-1606.
6. Beniston M (2006) Mountain weather and climate: a general overview and a focus on climatic change in the Alps. Hydrobiol 562: 3-16.
7. Beniston M, Jungo P (2002) Shifts in the distributions of pressure, temperature and moisture and changes in the typical weather patterns in the alpine region in response to the behavior of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Theor Appl Clim 71: 29-42.
8. Beniston M, Diaz S, Bradley RW (1997) Climatic change at high elevation sites: an overview. Clim Change 36: 233-251.
9. Bernard-Laurent A (1994) Statut, evolution et facteurs limitant les populations de Tétras-lyre (Tetrao tetrix) en France: synthèse bibliographique. Gibier Faune Sauvage, Game Wild 11. Hors-série tome 1: 205-239.
10. Bolker BM, Brooks ME, Clark CJ, Geange SW, Poulsen JR, Stevens MH, White JSS (2009) Generalized linear mixed models: a practical guide for ecology and evolution. Trends Ecol Evol 24: 127-135.
11. Brockwell PJ, Davis RA (1991) Time series: theory and methods, 2nd edn. Springer, Heidelberg, p 584.
12. Burnham KP, Anderson DR (2002) Model selection and multimodel inference: a practical information-theoretic approach, 2nd edn. Springer, Heidelberg.
13. Charmantier A, McCleery R, Cole LR, Perrins CM, Kruuk LEB, Sheldon BC (2008) Adaptive phenotypic plasticity in response to climate change in a wild bird population. Science 320: 800-803.
14. Chassagneux P, Deblaere JC, Thebaut E (1992) Atlas agro-climatique Rhône-Alpes. Météo-France et Chambre Régionale d'Agriculture Rhône, Alpes.
15. Chauchard S, Beilhe F, Denis N, Carcaillet C (2010) An increase in the upper tree-limit of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) in the Alps since the mid-20th century: a land-use change phenomenon. Forest Ecol Manage 259: 1406-1415.
16. Choinière L, Gauthier G (1995) Energetics of reproduction in female and male greater snow geese. Oecologia 103: 379-389.
17. Cotton PA (2003) Avian migration phenology and global climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 100: 12219-12222.
18. Coulson T, Catchpole EA, Albon SD, Morgan BJT, Pemberton JM, Clutton-Brock TH, Crawley MJ, Grenfell BT (2001) Age, sex, density, winter weather, and population crashes in Soay sheep. Science 292: 1528-1531.
19. Dickey MH, Gauthier G, Cadieux MC (2009) Climatic effects on the breeding phenology and reproductive success of an arctic-nesting goose species. Glob Change Biol 14: 1973-1985.
20. Eiberle K (1987) Influence de la température de l'air et des précipitations sur les tableaux de chasse des tétraonidés. Cahiers Ethol Appl 7: 109-128.
21. Ellison LN, Bernard-Laurent A, Magnani Y, Gindre R, Corti R (1987) Le Tétras lyre Lyrurus tetrix. Dynamique des populations, chasse et biotope de reproduction dans les Alpes françaises. Résultats d'études et recommandations pratiques. Section Faune de Montagne. Office National de la Chasse.
22. Erikstad KE, Spidsö TK (1982) The influence of weather on food intake, insect prey selection and feeding behaviour in willow grouse chicks in northern Norway. Ornis Scand 13: 176-182.
23. Folland C, Knight J, Linderholm HW, Fereday D, Ineson S, Hurrell JW (2009) The summer North Atlantic oscillation: past, present and future. J Clim 22: 1082-1103.
24. Gehrig-Fasel J, Guisan A, Zimmermann NE (2007) Tree line shifts in the Swiss Alps: climate change or land abandonment? J Veg Sci 18: 571-582.
25. Gienapp P, Teplitsky C, Alho JS, Mills JA, Merilä J (2008) Climate change and evolution: disentangling environmental and genetic responses. Mol Ecol 17: 167-178.
26. Giorgi F, Hurrell JW, Marinucci MR (1997) Elevation dependency of the surface climate change signal: a model study. J Clim 10: 288-296.
27. Grosbois V, Thompson PM (2005) North Atlantic climate variation influences survival in adult fulmars. Oikos 109: 273-290.
28. Hallett TB, Coulson T, Pilkington JG, Clutton-Brock TH, Pemberton JM, Grenfell BT (2004) Why large-scale climate indices seem to predict ecological processes better than local weather. Nature 430: 71-75.
29. Hurrell JW (1995) Decadal trends in the North Atlantic oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation. Science 269: 676-679.
30. Hurrell JW (1996) Influence of variations in extratropical wintertime teleconnections on Northern Hemisphere temperature. Geophys Res Lett 23: 665-668.
31. Hurrell JW, Kushnir Y, Ottersen G, Visbeck M (2003) An overview of the North Atlantic oscillation. Geophys Monogr Ser 134: 1-35.
32. IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: Synthesis report. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Paris.
33. Jiguet F, Gadot AS, Julliard R, Newson SE, Couvet D (2007) Climate envelope, life history traits and the resilience of birds facing global change. Global Change Biol 13: 1672-1684.
34. Jolly WM, Dobbertin M, Zimmermann NE, Reichstein M (2005) Divergent vegetation growth responses to the 2003 heat wave in the Swiss Alps. Geophys Res Lett 32: L18409.
35. Jonzén N, Lindén A, Ergon T, Knudsen E, Vik JO, Rubolini D, Piacentini D, Brinch C, Spina F, Karlsson L, Stervander M, Andersson A, Waldenström J, Lehikoinen A, Edvardsen E, Solvang R, Stenseth NC (2006) Rapid advance of spring arrival dates in long-distance migratory birds. Science 312: 1959-1961.
36. Klaus S (2007) A33-year study of hazel grouse Bonasa bonasia in theBohemian Forest, Sumava, Czech Republic: effects of weather on density in autumn. Wildl Biol 13(Suppl 1): 105-108.
37. Krajick K (2001) Arctic life, on thin ice. Science 291: 424-425.
38. Krajick K (2004) All downhill from here? Science 303: 1600-1602.
39. Kurki S, Nikula A, Helle P, Lindén H (2000) Landscape fragmentation and forest composition effects on grouse breeding success in boreal forest. Ecology 81: 1985-1997.
40. Legendre L, Legendre P (1984) Ecologie numérique: 2ème edition revue et augmentée. 2. La structure des données écologiques, Masson, Paris.
41. Leonard P (1992) Méthode de dénombrement des galliformes de montagne en été avec chiens d'arrêt et présentation ds résultats. Bull Mens ONCFS 172: fiche technique no 76.
42. Lewis S, Elston DA, Daunt F, Cheney B, Thompson PM (2009) Effects of extrinsic and intrinsic factors on breeding success in a long lived seabird. Oikos 118: 521-528.
43. Lindström J (1994) Tetraonid population studies - state of the art. Ann Zool Fenn 31: 347-364.
44. Loneux M, Lindsey JK (2003) Climatic modelling of black grouse population dynamics: a game or a tool? Sylvia 39: 43-57.
45. Ludwig GX, Alatalo RV, Helle P, Lindén H, Lindström J, Siitari H (2006) Short- and long-term population dynamical consequences of asymmetric climate change in black grouse. Proc R Soc Lond B 273: 2009-2016.
46. Magnani Y (1987) Réflexions sur la dynamique d'une population de Tétras lyre Tetrao tetrix L. des Alpes françaises. In: Institut d'analyse des systèmes biologiques et socio-économiques - Laboratoire de biométrie. Université Claude Bernard Lyon I, Lyon.
47. Martin K, Wiebe KL (2004) Coping mechanisms of Alpine and Arctic breeding birds: extreme weather and limitations to reproductive resilience. Int Comp Biol 44: 177-185.
48. Mc Cullagh P, Nelder JA (1989) Generalized linear models. Chapman and Hall/CRC.
49. Moss R, Watson A, Parr R (1975) Maternal nutrition and breeding success in red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus). J Anim Ecol 44: 233-244.
50. Moss R, Watson A, Rothery P, Glennie WW (1981) Clutch size, egg size, hatch weight and laying date in relation to early mortality in red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scoticus) chicks. Ibis 123: 450-462.
51. Moss R, Oswald J, Baines D (2001) Climate change and breeding success: decline of the capercaillie in Scotland. J Anim Ecol 70: 47-61.
52. Novoa C, Besnard A, Brenot J-F, Ellison LN (2008) Effect of weather on the reproductive rate of rock ptarmigan Lagopus amuta in the eastern pyrenees. Ibis 150: 270-278.
53. Observatoire des Galliformes de Montagne (OGM) (2003) Rapport annuel 2003-OGM edts.
54. Ozenda P (1981) Végétation des Alpes sud-occidentales. Notice détaillée des feuilles 60 Gap 61 Larche 67 Digne 68 Nice 75 Antibes CNRS.
55. Parmesan C, Yohe G (2003) A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421: 37-42.
56. Patthey P, Wirthner S, Signorell N, Arlettaz R (2008) Impact of outdoor winter sports on the abundance of a key indicator species of alpine ecosystems. J Appl Ecol 45: 1704-1711.
57. Pimm S, Raven P, Peterson A, Sekercioglu CH, Ehrlich PR (2006) Human impacts on the rates of recent, present, and future bird extinctions. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 103: 10941-10946.
58. Portis DH, Walsh JE, El Hamly M, Lamb PJ (2001) Seasonality of the North Atlantic oscillation. J Clim 14: 2069-2078.
59. R Development Core Team (2007) R: A Language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for statistical computing, Vienna, Austria. http://www. r. project. org.
60. Reed ET, Gauthier G, Giroux JF (2004) Effects of spring conditions on breeding propensity of greater snow goose females. Anim Biodivers Conserv 27: 35-46.
61. Saether B-E, Sutherland WJ, Engen S (2004) Climate influences on avian population dynamics. Adv Ecol Res 35: 185-209.
62. Sandercock BK, Martin K, Hannon SJ (2005) Demographic consequences of age-structure in extreme environments: population models for arctic and alpine ptarmigan. Oecologia 146: 13-24.
63. Seber GAF (1982) The estimation of animal abundance and related parameters, 2nd edn. Macmillan, New York.
64. Sekercioglu CH, Schneider SH, Fay JP, Loarie SR (2008) Climate change, elevational range shifts, and bird extinctions. Conserv Biol 22: 140-150.
65. Selmi S, Boulinier T, Faivre B (2003) Distribution and abundance patterns of a newly colonizing species in Tunisian oases: the common blackbird Turdus merula. Ibis 145: 681-688.
66. Siivonen L (1957) The problem of the short-term fluctuations in numbers of tetraonids in Europe. Pap Game Res 19: 1-44.
67. Slagsvold T, Grasaas T (1979) Autumn population size of the capercaillie Tetrao urogallus in relation to weather. Ornis Scand 10: 37-41.
68. Spidsö TK, Hjeljord O, Dokk JG (1997) Seasonal mortality of black grouse Tetrao tetrix during a year with little snow. Wildl Biol 3: 205-209.
69. Stenseth NC, Mysterud A (2005) Weather packages: finding the right scale and composition of climate in ecology. J Anim Ecol 74: 1195-1198.
70. Stenseth NC, Ottersen G, Hurrell JW, Mysterud A, Lima M, Chan K-S, Yoccoz NG, Adlandsvik B (2003) Studying climate effects on ecology through the use of climate indices: the North Atlantic oscillation, El Nino Southern oscillation and beyond. Proc R Soc Lond B 270: 2087-2096.
71. Storch I (2007) Grouse: status survey and conservation action plan 2006-2010. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland.
72. Swenson JE, Saari L, Bonczar Z (1994) Effects of weather on hazel grouse reproduction: an allometric perspective. J Av Biol 25: 8-14.
73. Taulavuori K, Laine K, Taulavuori E, Pakonen T, Saari E (1997) Accelerated dehardening in bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus L.) induced by a small elevation in air temperature. Environ Poll 98: 91-95.
74. Theurillat JP, Guisan A (2001) Potential impact of climate change on vegetation in the European Alps: a review. Clim Change 50: 77-109.
75. Thompson FR, Fritzel EK (1988) Ruffed grouse winter roost site preference and influence on energy demands. J Wildl Manage 52: 454-460.
76. Thuiller W, Lavorel S, Araujo MB, Sykes MT, Prentice IC (2005) Climate change threats to plant diversity in Europe. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 102: 8245-8250.
77. Visbeck M, Hurrell JW, Polvani L, Cullen HM (2001) The North Atlantic oscillation: past, present, and future. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 98: 12876-12877.
78. Walther GR, Post E, Convey P, Menzel A, Parmesan C, Beebee TJC, Fromentin J-M, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Bairlein F (2002) Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416: 389-395.
79. Wilson RJ, Gutierrez D, Gutierrez J, Martinez D, Agudo R, Monserrat VJ (2005) Changes to the elevational limits and extent of species ranges associated with climate change. Ecol Lett 8: 1138-1146.
80. Wood SN (2006) Generalized additive models. An introduction with R. Texts in Statistical Science. Chapman and Hall.
81. Zbinden N, Salvioni M (2004) Bedeutung der Temperatur in der frühen Aufzuchtzeit für den Forpflanzungserfolg des Birkhuns Tetrao tetrix auf verschiedenen Höhenstufen im Tessin, Südschweiz. Ornithol Beob 101: 307-318.