Application of S-shaped curves

Procedia Engineering

Volumn 9, Issue , 2011, Pages 559-572

  Kucharavy, Dmitry ^a   De Guio, Roland ^a  

^a INSA DE STRASBOURG   (France)

Author keywords

Laws of technical systems evolution; Resource limitations; S curve; S shaped curve; Technology future analysis

Indexed keywords

TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING;

INNOVATION AND TECHNOLOGY; LAWS OF TECHNICAL SYSTEMS EVOLUTIONS; LOGISTIC FUNCTIONS; LONG-TERM FORECASTING; RESOURCE LIMITATIONS; S CURVE; S-SHAPED CURVES; SCOPE OF APPLICATION;

PROBLEM SOLVING;

EID: 79958757424     PISSN: None     EISSN: 18777058     Source Type: Conference Proceeding    
DOI: 10.1016/j.proeng.2011.03.142     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (24)

1. Altshuller, G.S. Creativity as an Exact Science. Sovietskoe radio Publishing House, Moscow, 1979.
2. Altshuller, G.S. About forecasting of technical systems development. Seminars materials p. 8, Baku, 1975.
3. Weisstein, E.W. Logistic Equation. (MathWorld A Wolfram Web Resource, 2003). http://mathworld.wolfram.com/LogisticEquation.html.
4. Modis, T., A Scientific Approach to Managing Competition. The Industrial Physicist, 2003. 9(1): p. 24-27.
5. Modis, T., Predictions - 10 Years Later. 2002, Geneva, Switzerland: Growth Dynamics. 335. ISBN 2- 9700216-1-7.
6. Debecker, A. and T. Modis, Determination of the uncertainties in S-curve logistic fits Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1994. 46(2): p. 153-173.
7. Ayres, R.U., Technological Forecasting and Long-Range Planning. 1969: McGraw-Hill book Company. 237. ISBN 0070026637.
8. Rogers, E.M., Diffusion of Innovations. 5th ed. 2003, New York: Free Press. 512. ISBN 0-7432-2209-1.
9. Fisher, J.C. and R.H. Pry, A simple substitution model of technological change. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1971. 3(1): p. 75-78.
10. Modis, T., Fractal aspects of natural growth Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 1994. 47(1): p. 63-73.
11. Petrov, V. and A. Seredinski, Progress and Ideality, in TRIZ Future Conference 2005, ETRIA World conference, J. Jantschgi, Editor. 2005, Leykam Buchverlag: Graz, Austria.
12. Gautier, L., M. Marrony, and D. Kucharavy, Technological forecasting of Fuel Cells for small stationary applications. 2005, European Institute for Energy Research - EIfER: Karlsruhe. p. 38.
13. Schnaars, S.P., Megamistakes: Forecasting and the Myth of Rapid Technological Change. 1989, New York: The Free Press. 202.
14. Schnaars, S.P., S.L. Chia, and C.M.M. III, Five Modern Lessons from 55-Year-Old Technological Forecast. Journal of Product Innovation Management, 1993. 10(1): p. 66-74.
15. Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioner. 1st ed, ed. J.S. Armstrong. 2002, Boston/Dordrecht/London: Kluwer Academic Publishers. 849.
16. Glenn, J.C. and Gordon, T.J., eds. Futures Research Methodology. (AC/UNU Millennium Project, Washington, D.C. 20016-4055, 2003).
17. Porter, A.L. and Cunningham, S.W. Tech mining: exploiting new technologies for competitive advantage. (John Willey & Sons Inc., Hoboken, New Jersey, 2005).
18. Molitor, G.T.T. Molitor Forecasting Model: Key Dimensions for Plotting the "Patterns of Change". Journal of Future Studies, 2003, 8(1), 61-72.
19. Braun, W., The System Archetypes, in The Systems Modeling Workbook. 2002.
20. Khomenko, N., Guio, R.D., Lelait, L. and Kaikov, I. A Framework for OTSM-TRIZ Based Computer Support to be used in Complex Problem Management. International Journal of Computer Applications in Technology (IJCAT), 2007, In Press, Corrected Proof.
21. Kucharavy, D. and R. De Guio, Problems of Forecast, in ETRIA TRIZ Future 2005. 2005: Graz, Austria.
22. Kucharavy, D. and R. De Guio, Problem Mapping for the Assessment of Technological Barriers in the Framework of Innovative Design, in International Conference On Engineering Design, ICED'07. 2007: Paris, France.
23. Gautier, L., M. Marrony, and D. Kucharavy, Technological forecasting of Fuel Cells for small stationary applications. 2005, European Institute for Energy Research - EIfER: Karlsruhe. HN-42/05/016 p. 38.
24. Modis, T., Strengths and weaknesses of S-curves. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2007. 74(6): p. 866-872. (Pubitemid 46838536)