A poisson regression index for tropical cyclone genesis and the role of large-scale vorticity in genesis

Journal of Climate

Volumn 24, Issue 9, 2011, Pages 2335-2357

  Tippett, Michael K ^a   Camargo, Suzana J ^b   Sobel, Adam H ^c,d  

^a Earth Institute   (United States)

^b Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences   (United States)

^c NONE   (United States)

^d Och Spine at New York Presbyterian Hospitals   (United States)

Author keywords

Cyclogenesis cyclolysis; Cyclones; Large scale motions; Regression analysis; Tropics; Vorticity

Indexed keywords

ABSOLUTE VORTICITY; CLIMATE VARIABLES; CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA; CYCLOGENESIS; FUNCTIONAL DEPENDENCE; INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY; LARGE-SCALE MOTIONS; NEW INDICES; POISSON REGRESSION; RATE LIMITING; REANALYSIS; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES; SINGLE LEVEL; TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS; TROPICAL CYCLONE; VERTICAL SHEAR;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATOLOGY; POISSON DISTRIBUTION; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; STORMS; TROPICS;

VORTICITY;

ANNUAL VARIATION; CLIMATE VARIATION; CYCLOGENESIS; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; RELATIVE HUMIDITY; SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE; SHEAR FLOW; SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION; TROPICAL CYCLONE; VORTICITY;

EID: 79958164291     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3811.1     Document Type: Article

References (60)

1. Akaike, H., 1973: Information theory and an extension of the maximum likelihood principle. 2nd International Symposium on Information Theory, B. N. Petrov and F. Czáki, Eds., Akademiai Kiadó, 267-281.
2. Back, L. E., and C. S. Bretherton, 2009: A simple model of climatological rainfall and vertical motion patterns over the tropical oceans. J. Climate, 22, 6477-6497.
3. Bengtsson, L., K. I. Hodges, and M. Esch, 2007: Tropical cyclones in a T159 resolution global climate model: Comparison with observations and re-analysis. Tellus, 59A, 396-416.
4. Bister, M., and K. A. Emanuel, 1998: Dissipative heating and hurricane intensity. Meteor. Atmos. Phys., 52, 233-240.
5. Bister, M., and K. A. Emanuel, 2002a: Low frequency variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity. 1. Interannual to interdecadal variability. J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4801, doi:10.1029/2001JD000776.
6. Bister, M., and K. A. Emanuel, 2002b: Low frequency variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity. 2. Climatology for 1982-1995. J. Geophys. Res., 107, 4621, doi:10.1029/2001JD000780.
7. Bretherton, C. S., M. E. Peters, and L. E. Back, 2004: Relationships between water vapor path and precipitation over the tropical oceans. J. Climate, 17, 1517-1528.
8. Bye, J., and K. Keay, 2008: A new hurricane index for the Caribbean. Interscience, 33, 556-560.
9. Camargo, S. J., K. A. Emanuel, and A. H. Sobel, 2007a: Use of genesis potential index to diagonose ENSO effects on tropical cyclone genesis. J. Climate, 20, 4819-4834.
10. Camargo, S. J., A. H. Sobel, A. G. Barnston, and K. A. Emanuel, 2007b: Tropical cyclone genesis potential index in climate models. Tellus, 59A, 428-443.
11. Camargo, S. J., M. C.Wheeler, and A. H. Sobel, 2009: Diagnosis of the MJO modulation of tropical cyclogenesis using an empirical index. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 3061-3074.
12. Cheung, K. K. W., 2004: Large-scale environmental parameters associated with tropical cyclone formations in the western North Pacific. J. Climate, 17, 466-484.
13. Chiang, J. C. H., and A. H. Sobel, 2002: Tropical tropospheric temperature variations caused by ENSO and their influence on the remote tropical climate. J. Climate, 15, 2616-2631.
14. Daoud, A. B., E. Sauquet, M. Langand, C. Obled, and G. Bontron, 2009: Comparison of 850-hPa relative humidity between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR re-analyses: Detection of suspicious data in ERA-40. Atmos. Sci. Lett., 10, 43-47.
15. Davis, C. A., and L. F. Bosart, 2003: Baroclinically induced tropical cyclogenesis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 2730-2747.
16. DeMaria, M., J. A. Knaff, and B. H. Conell, 2001: A tropical cyclone genesis parameter for the tropical Atlantic. Wea. Forecasting, 16, 219-233.
17. Elsner, J. B., and C. P. Schmertmann, 1993: Improving extendedrange seasonal forecasts of intense Atlantic hurricane activity. Wea. Forecasting, 8, 345-351.
18. Emanuel, K. A., 1989: The finite-amplitude nature of tropical cyclogenesis. J. Atmos. Sci., 46, 3431-3456.
19. Emanuel, K. A., 1995: Sensitivity of tropical cyclones to surface exchange coefficients and a revised steady-state model incorporating eye dynamics. J. Atmos. Sci., 52, 3969-3976.
20. Emanuel, K. A., and D. S. Nolan, 2004: Tropical cyclone activity and global climate. Proc. 26th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Miami, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 240-241.
21. Evan, A., and S. Camargo, 2011: A climatology of Arabian Sea cyclonic storms. J. Climate, 24, 140-158.
22. Evans, J. L., and M. P. Guishard, 2009: Atlantic subtropical storms. Part I: Diagnostic criteria and composite analysis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 2065-2080.
23. Fu, R., A. D. D. Genio, and W. B. Rossow, 1990: Behavior of deep convective clouds in the tropical Pacific deduced from ISCCP radiances. J. Climate, 3, 1129-1152.
24. Fu, R., A. D. D. Genio, and W. B. Rossow, 1994: Influence of ocean surface conditions on atmospheric vertical thermodynamic structure and deep convection. J. Climate, 7, 1092-1108.
25. Gadgil, S., V. Joseph, and N. V. Joshi, 1984: Ocean-atmosphere coupling over monsoon regions. Nature, 312, 141-143.
26. Graham, N. E., and T. P. Barnett, 1987: Sea surface temperature, surface wind divergence, and convection over tropical oceans. Science, 238, 657-659.
27. Gray, W. M., 1968: Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms. Mon. Wea. Rev., 96, 669-700.
28. Gray, W. M., 1979: Hurricanes: Their formation, structure and likely role in the tropical circulation. Meteorology over the Tropical Oceans, Royal Meteorological Society, 155-218.
29. Gualdi, S., E. Scoccimarro, and A. Navarra, 2008: Changes in tropical cyclone activity due to global warming: Results froma highresolution coupled general circulation model. J. Climate, 21, 5204-5228.
30. Guishard, M. P., J. L. Evans, and R. E. Hart, 2009: Atlantic subtropical storms. Part II: Climatology. J. Climate, 22, 3574-3594.
31. Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.
32. Kistler, R., and Coauthors, 2001: The NCEP-NCAR 50-Year Reanalysis: Monthly means CD-ROM and documentation. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 247-267.
33. Knapp, K. R., M. C. Kruk, D. H. Levinson, H. J. Diamond, and C. J. Neumann, 2010: The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 363-376.
34. Knutson, T. R., J. J. Sirutis, S. T. Garner, G. A. Vecchi, and I. M. Held, 2008: Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions. Nat. Geosci., 1, 359-364.
35. Kotal, S. D., P. K. Kundu, and S. K. R. Bhowmik, 2009: Analysis of cyclogenesis parameter for developing and nondeveloping low-pressure systems over the Indian Sea. Nat. Hazards, 50, 389-402.
36. Lyon, B., and S. J. Camargo, 2009: The seasonally-varying influence of ENSOon rainfall and tropical cyclone activity in the Philippines. Climate Dyn., 32, 125-141.
37. McDonnell, K. A., and N. J. Holbrook, 2004: A Poisson regression model of tropical cyclogenesis for the Australian-southwest Pacific Ocean region. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 440-455.
38. Mestre, O., and S. Hallegatte, 2009: Predictors of tropical cyclone numbers and extreme hurricane intensities over the North Atlantic using generalized additive and linearmodels. J. Climate, 22, 633-648.
39. Murakami, H., and B. Wang, 2010: Future change of North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks: Projection by a 20-km-mesh global atmospheric model. J. Climate, 23, 2699-2721.
40. Nolan, D. S., E. D. Rappin, and K. A. Emanuel, 2007: Tropical cyclogenesis sensitivity to environmental parameters in radiativeconvective equilibrium. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 133, 2085-2107.
41. Oouchi, K., J. Yoshimura, H. Yoshimura, R. Mizuta, S. Kusunoki, and A. Noda, 2006: Tropical cyclone climatology in a globalwarming climate as simulated in a 20-km-mesh global atmosphericmodel: Frequency and wind intensity analyses. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 84, 259-276.
42. Ramsay, H. A., and A. H. Sobel, 2011: Effects of relative and absolute sea surface temperature on tropical cyclone potential intensity using a single-column model. J. Climate, 24, 183-193.
43. Royer, J.-F., F. Chauvin, B. Timbal, P. Araspin, and D. Grimal, 1998: A GCM study of the impact of greenhouse gas increase on the frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclone. Climatic Change, 38, 307-343.
44. Sall, S. M., H. Sauvageot, A. T. Gaye, A. Viltard, and P. de Felice, 2006:Acyclogenesis index for tropical Atlantic off the African coasts. Atmos. Res., 79, 123-147.
45. Smith, T. M., and R. W. Reynolds, 2004: Improved extended reconstruction of SST (1854-1997). J. Climate, 17, 2466-2477.
46. Sobel, A. H., I.M.Held, andC. S.Bretherton, 2002: TheENSOsignal in tropical tropospheric temperature. J. Climate, 15, 2702-2706.
47. Solow, A., and N. Nicholls, 1990: The relationship between the Southern Oscillation and tropical cyclone frequency in the Australian region. J. Climate, 3, 1097-1101.
48. Su, H., D. Neelin, and J. E. Meyerson, 2003: Sensitivity of tropical tropospheric temperature to sea surface temperature forcing. J. Climate, 16, 1283-1301.
49. Swanson, K. L., 2008: Nonlocality of Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity. Geochem. Geophys. Geosyst., 9, Q04V01, doi:10.1029/2007GC001844.
50. Uppala, S. M., and Coauthors, 2005: The ERA-40 Re-Analysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 2961-3012.
51. Vecchi, G. A., and B. J. Soden, 2007a: Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity. Nature, 450, 1066-1070.
52. Vecchi, G. A., and B. J. Soden, 2007b: Increased tropical Atlantic wind shear in model projections of global warming. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L08702, doi:10.1029/2006GL028905.
53. Vecchi, G. A., K. L. Swanson, and B. J. Soden, 2008: Whither hurricane activity? Science, 322, 687-689.
54. Villarini, G., G. A. Vecchi, and J. A. Smith, 2010: Modeling of the dependence of tropical storm counts in the North Atlantic basin on climate indices. Mon. Wea. Rev., 138, 2681-2705.
55. Wentz, F. J., and R. W. Spencer, 1998: SSM/I rain retrievals within a unified all-weather ocean algorithm. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 1613-1627.
56. Yokoi, S., andY.N. Takayuba, 2009: Multi-model projection of global warming impact on tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 87, 525-538.
57. Yokoi, S., Y.N. Takayuba, and J. C. L. Chan, 2009: Tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific simulated in mediumresolution coupled general circulationmodels. Climate Dyn., 33, 665-683.
58. Yoshimura, J., M. Sugi, and A. Noda, 2006: Influence of greenhouse warming on tropical cyclone frequency. J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 86, 405-428.
59. Zhang, C., 1993: Large-scale variability of atmospheric deep convection in relation to sea surface temperature in the tropics. J. Climate, 6, 1898-1913.
60. Zhao, M., I. M. Held, S.-J. Lin, and G. A. Vecchi, 2009: Simulations of global hurricane climatology, interannual variability, and response to global warming using a 50-km resolution GCM.J. Climate, 22, 6653-6678.