Precipitation Forecast Using Artificial Neural Networks in Specific Regions of Greece

Water Resources Management

Volumn 25, Issue 8, 2011, Pages 1979-1993

  Moustris, Kostas P ^a   Larissi, Ioanna K ^a   Nastos, Panagiotis T ^b   Paliatsos, Athanasios G ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF WEST ATTICA   (Greece)

^b UNIVERSITY OF ATHENS   (Greece)

Author keywords

Artificial Neural Networks; Greece; Precipitation forecast

Indexed keywords

ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK; ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS; COEFFICIENT OF DETERMINATION; CUMULATIVE PRECIPITATION; DATA SETS; ECOLOGICAL PROBLEM; GREECE; INDEX OF AGREEMENTS; LONG TIME SERIES; MEDITERRANEAN REGION; METEOROLOGICAL STATION; PRECIPITATION FORECAST; PROGNOSTIC MODEL; ROOT MEAN SQUARE ERRORS; SOCIO-ECONOMICS; STATION DATA; STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE; THESSALONIKI;

TIME SERIES; WEATHER FORECASTING;

NEURAL NETWORKS;

ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK; DATA SET; FORECASTING METHOD; METEOROLOGY; METHODOLOGY; PRECIPITATION ASSESSMENT; VULNERABILITY;

GREECE;

THESSALONIKI;

EID: 79956141353     PISSN: 09204741     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s11269-011-9790-5     Document Type: Review

References (54)

1. Ahmad S, Simonovic SP (2006) An intelligent decision support for management of floods. Water Resour Manage 20: 391-410.
2. Altunkaynak A (2007) Forecasting surface water level fluctuations of Lake van by artificial neural networks. Water Resour Manage 21(2): 399-408.
3. Anagnostopoulou Chr, Tolika K, Flocas H, Maheras P (2006) Cyclones in the Mediterranean region: present and future climate scenarios derived from a general circulation model (HadAM3P). Adv Geosci 7: 9-14.
4. Bodri L, Cermak V (2000) Prediction of extreme precipitation using a neural network: application to summer flood occurrence in Moravia. Adv Eng Softw 31: 211-221.
5. Brunetti M, Maugeri M, Monti F, Nanni T (2004) Changes in daily precipitation frequency and distribution in Italy over the last 120 years. J Geophys Res 109: D05102. doi: 10. 1029/2003JD004296.
6. Caudill M, Butler C (1992) Understanding neural networks: computer explorations. MIT Press, Cambridge.
7. Chantasut N, Charoenjit C, Tanprasert C (2004) Predictive mining of rainfall predictions using artificial neural networks for Chao Phraya River. In: Proc of the AFITA/WCCA Joint Congress on IT in Agriculture, Bangkok, Thailand, pp 117-122.
8. Cigizoglou HK, Alp M (2004) Rainfall-runoff modelling using three neural network methods. In: Rutkowski L, Siekmann J, Tadeusiewicz R, Zadeh LA (eds) Artificial Intelligence and Soft Computing-ICAISC 2004, LNAI 3070, Springer, Berlin, pp 166-171.
9. Comrie AC (1997) Comparing neural networks and regression models for ozone forecasting. J Air & Waste Manage Assoc 47: 653-663.
10. Douville H, Chauvin F, Planton S, Royer JF, Salas-Melia D, Tyteca S (2002) Sensitivity of the hydrological cycle to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases and aerosols. Clim Dyn 20: 45-68.
11. Feidas H, Noulopoulou C, Makrogiannis T, Bora-Senta E (2007) Trend analysis of precipitation time series in Greece and their relationship with circulation using surface and satellite data: 1955-2001. Theor Appl Climatol 87: 155-177.
12. Fernández-Ferrero A, Sáenz J, Ibarra-Berasteg G, Fernández J (2009) Evaluation of statistical downscaling in short range precipitation forecasting. Atmos Res 94: 448-461.
13. Fox NI, Wilson JW (2005) Very short-period quantitative precipitation forecasting. Atmos Sci Lett 6: 7-11.
14. Freiwan M, Cigizoglu HK (2005) Prediction of total monthly rainfall in Jordan using feed forward backpropagation method. Fresen Environ Bull 14: 142-151.
15. Hopfield JJ (1982) Neural networks and physical systems with emergent collective computational properties. Proc Natl Acad Sci (USA) 79: 2554-2558.
16. Hopfield JJ (1987) Learning algorithms and probability distributions in feed-forward and feed-back networks. Proc Natl Acad Sci (USA) 84: 8429-8433.
17. IPCC (2007) Summary for policymakers. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom/New York, NY, USA.
18. Iseri Y, Dandy GC, Maier HR, Kawamura A, Jinno K (2005) Medium term forecasting of rainfall using artificial neural networks. In: Zerger A, Argent RM (eds) MODSIM 2005 International congress on modelling and simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, December 2005, Melbourne, Australia, pp 1834-1840.
19. Juneng L, Tangang FT, Kang H, Lee W-J, Seng YK (2010) Statistical downscaling forecasts for winter monsoon precipitation in Malaysia using multimodel output variables. J Climate 23: 17-27.
20. Kolehmainen M, Martikainen H, Ruuskanen J (2001) Neural networks and periodic components used in air quality forecasting. Atmos Environ 35: 815-825.
21. Luck KC, Ball JE, Sharma A (2000) A study of optimal model lag and spatial inputs to artificial neural networks for rainfall forecasting. J Hydrol 227: 56-65.
22. Mantis HT, Repapis CC, Philandras CM, Paliatsos AG, Amanatidis GT (1994) The spatial and temporal structure of the precipitation climate the Eastern Mediterranean; Background for a study of Climate Change. In: A Ghazi, P Mathy, C Zerefos (eds) EUR 17458-Eastern Europe and Global Change, Kassandra, Halkidiki, Greece, October 3-10, 1994, pp 125-131.
23. Mar KW, Naing TT (2008) Optimum neural network architecture for precipitation prediction of Myanmar. World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology 48: 130-134.
24. McCulloch W, Pitts W (1943) A logical calculus of the ideas imminent in nervous activity. Bull Math Biophys 5: 33-115.
25. Melas D, Kioutsoukis I, Ziomas I (2000) Neural network model for predicting peak photochemical pollutant levels. J Air & Waste Manage Assoc 50: 495-501.
26. Metaxas DA, Philandras CM, Nastos PT, Repapis CC (1999) Variability of precipitation pattern in Greece during the year. Fresen Environ Bull 8: 1-6.
27. Mitchell JM, Dzerdzeevsku B, Flohn H, Hofmeyr WL, Lamb HH, Rao KN, Wallen CC (1966) Climatic change, WMO technical note 79. WMO No 195, TP-100, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, p 79.
28. Mohanty S, Jha MK, Kumar A, Sudheer KP (2010) Artificial neural network modeling for groundwater level forecasting in a River Island of Eastern India. Proceedings of workshop on groundwater scenario and quality in Orissa. Water Resour Manage 24: 1845-1865.
29. Moustris K, Ziomas IC, Paliatsos AG (2009) 24 hours in advance forecasting of thermal comfort-discomfort levels during the hot period of the year at representative locations of Athens city, Greece. Fresen Environ Bull 18: 601-608.
30. th Colloque International de Climatologie, pp 183-190.
31. Nastos PT, Zerefos CS (2007) On extreme daily precipitation totals at Athens, Greece. Adv Geosci 10: 1-8.
32. Nastos PT, Zerefos CS (2008) Decadal changes in extreme daily precipitation in Greece. Adv Geosci 16: 55-62.
33. Nastos PT, Zerefos CS (2009) Spatial and temporal variability of consecutive dry and wet days in Greece. Atmos Res 94: 616-628.
34. Nourani V, Komasi M, Mano A (2009) A multivariate ANN-wavelet approach for rainfall-runoff modeling. Water Resour Manage 23: 2877-2894.
35. Paliatsos AG, Nastos PT, Tzavelas G, Panagiotakos DB (2005) Characteristics of precipitation in Athens area, Greece. Fresen Environ Bull 14: 422-428.
36. Palutikof JP, Trigo RM, Adcock ST (1996) Scenarios of future rainfall over the Mediterranean: is the region drying? Proc. Mediterranean Desertification, Research Results and Policy Implications, Crete, Greece, 20 October-1 November 1996.
37. Papanastasiou DK, Melas D, Kioutsioukis I (2007) Development and assessment of neural network and multiple regression models in order to predict PM10 levels in a medium-sized Mediterranean city. Water Air Soil Poll 182: 325-334.
38. Philandras CM, Nastos PT, Paliatsos AG, Repapis CC (2010) Study of the rain intensity in Athens and Thessaloniki, Greece. Adv Geosci 23: 37-45.
39. Piervitali E, Colasino M, Conte M (1997) Signals of climatic change in the Central-Western Mediterranean basin. Theor Appl Climatol 58: 211-219.
40. Repapis CC (1986) Temporal fluctuations of precipitation in Greece. Rivista di Meteor Aeron XLVI(1-2): 19-25.
41. Rosenblatt F (1958) The Perceptron: A probabilistic model for information storage and organization in the brain. Psychol Rev 65: 386-408.
42. Sahai AK, Soman MK, Satyan V (2000) All India summer monsoon rainfall prediction using an artificial neural network. Clim Dynam 16: 291-302.
43. Sakellariou NK, Kambezidis HD (2004) Prediction of the total rainfall amount during August and November in the Athens area, Greece. Fresen Environ Bull 13: 289-292.
44. Schonwiese CD, Rapp J (1997) Climate trend atlas on Europe-Based on observations 1891-1890. Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
45. Schonwiese CD, Rapp J, Fuchs T, Denhard M (1994) Observed climate trends in Europe 1891-1990. Meteorol Z NF 38: 51-63.
46. Silverman D, Dracup JA (2000) Artificial neural networks and long-range precipitation predictions in California. J Appl Meteorol 39: 57-66.
47. Trenberth KE, Dai A, Rasmussen RM, Parsons DB (2003) The changing character of precipitation. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc 84: 1205-1217.
48. Valverde-Ramirez MC, Ferreira NJ, Fraga de Campos Velho H (2006) Linear and nonlinear statistical downscaling for rainfall forecasting over southeastern Brazil. Weather Forecast 21: 969-989.
49. Walker SE, Slordal LH, Guerreiro C, Gram F, Grønskei KE (1999) Air pollution exposure monitoring and estimation Part II. Model evaluation and population exposure. J Environ Monitor 1: 321-326.
50. Werbos P (1974) Beyond regression: new tools for prediction and analysis on the behavior sciences. PhD Thesis, Harvard University.
51. Willmott CJ (1982) Some comments on the evaluation of model performance. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc 63: 1309-1313.
52. Willmott CJ, Ackleson SG, Davis RE et al (1985) Statistics for the evaluation and comparison of models. J Geoph Res 90: 8995-9005.
53. Zwick A, Canarelli P (1996) Climate sensitivity analysis using neural networks. Fresen Environ Bull 5: 700-705.
54. Zwiers FW, von Storch H (2004) On the role of statistics in climate research. Int J Climatol 24: 665-680.