Taking the next step: Combining incrementally valid indicators to improve recidivism prediction

Assessment

Volumn 18, Issue 2, 2011, Pages 227-233

  Walters, Glenn D ^a  

^a FEDERAL CORRECTIONAL INSTITUTION   (United States)

Author keywords

combining variables; incremental validity; prediction; recidivism

Indexed keywords

ADULT; ARTICLE; CLINICAL TRIAL; CONFIDENCE INTERVAL; CONTROLLED CLINICAL TRIAL; CONTROLLED STUDY; CRIME; HUMAN; MALE; PERSONALITY DISORDER; PERSONALITY TEST; PRISON; PRISONER; PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS MODEL; PSYCHOLOGICAL ASPECT; PSYCHOMETRY; RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED TRIAL; RECEIVER OPERATING CHARACTERISTIC; REPRODUCIBILITY; RISK FACTOR; SOCIOPATHY; STATISTICS; VALIDATION STUDY;

ADULT; CONFIDENCE INTERVALS; CRIME; HUMANS; MALE; PERSONALITY DISORDERS; PERSONALITY TESTS; PRISONERS; PRISONS; PROPORTIONAL HAZARDS MODELS; PSYCHOMETRICS; REPRODUCIBILITY OF RESULTS; RISK FACTORS; ROC CURVE; SOCIAL BEHAVIOR DISORDERS; STATISTICS AS TOPIC;

EID: 79955891640     PISSN: 10731911     EISSN: 15523489     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/1073191110397484     Document Type: Article

References (31)

1. Andrews, D.A., Bonta, J., & Hoge, R. (1990). Classification for effective rehabilitation: Rediscovering psychology. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 17, 19-52.
2. Benda, B.B. (2005). Gender differences in life-course theory of recidivism: A survival analysis. International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 49, 325-342.
3. Bobko, P., Roth, P.L., & Buster, M.A. (2007). The usefulness of unit weights in creating composite scores: A literature review, application to content validity, and meta-analysis. Organizational Research Methods, 10, 689-709.
4. Bonta, J., Wallace-Capretta, S., & Rooney, J. (2000). A quasi-experimental evaluation of an intensive rehabilitation supervision program. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 27, 312-329.
5. Coleman, C., & Moynihan, J. (1996). Understanding crime data: Haunted by the dark figure. London, England: Open University Press.
6. DeLong, E.R., DeLong, D.M., & Clarke-Pearson, D.L. (1988). Comparing the areas under two or more correlated receiver operating characteristic curves: A nonparametric approach. Biometrics, 44, 837-845.
7. Douglas, K.S., & Skeem, J.L. (2005). Violence risk assessment: Getting specific about being dynamic. Psychology, Public Policy, and Law, 11, 347-383.
8. Douglas, K.S., Yeomans, M., & Boer, D.P. (2005). Comparative validity analysis of multiple measures of violence risk in a sample of criminal offenders. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 32, 479-510.
9. Grann, M., & Långström, N. (2007). Actuarial assessment of violence risk: To weigh or not to weigh? Criminal Justice and Behavior, 34, 22-36.
10. Gray, N.S., Taylor, J., & Snowden, R.J. (2008). Predicting violent reconvictions using the HCR-20. British Journal of Psychiatry, 192, 384-387.
11. Harris, G.T., Rice, M.E., & Quinsey, V.L. (1993). Violent recidivism of mentally disordered offenders: The development of a statistical prediction instrument. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 20, 315-335.
12. Haynes, S.N., & Lench, H.C. (2003). Incremental validity of new clinical assessment measures. Psychological Assessment, 15, 456-466.
13. Huebner, B.M., & Cobbina, J. (2007). The effect of drug use, drug treatment participation, and treatment completion on probationer recidivism. Journal of Drug Issues, 37, 619-641.
14. Hunsley, J., & Meyer, G.J. (2003). The incremental validity of psychological testing and assessment: Conceptual, methodological, and statistical issues. Psychological Assessment, 15, 446-455.
15. Kroner, D.G., Mills, J.F., & Reddon, J.R. (2005). A coffee can, factor analysis, and prediction of antisocial behavior: The structure of criminal risk. International Journal of Law and Psychiatry, 28, 360-374.
16. Nunnally, J.C., & Bernstein, I.H. (1994). Psychometric theory (3rd ed.). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.
17. O'Leary, R., O'Leary, B., & MacLane, C. (2004, April). Weighting content valid composites: A cautionary note on unit weights. Paper presented at the 19th annual meeting of the Society for Industrial and Organizational Psychology, Chicago, IL.
18. Sechrest, L. (1963). Incremental validity: A recommendation. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 23, 153-158.
19. Serdobolskii, V.I. (2005). Matrix shrinkage of high-dimensional expectation vectors. Journal of Multivariate Analysis, 92, 281-297.
20. Seto, M.C. (2005). Is more better? Combining actuarial risk scales to predict recidivism among adult sex offenders. Psychological Assessment, 17, 156-167.
21. Snowden, R.J., Gray, N.S., Taylor, J., & MacCulloch, M.J. (2007). Actuarial prediction of violent recidivism in mentally disordered offenders. Psychological Medicine, 37, 1539-1549.
22. Steiger, J.H. (1980). Tests for comparing elements of a correlation matrix. Psychological Bulletin, 87, 245-251.
23. Thornberry, T.P., & Krohn, M.D. (2000). The self-report method for measuring delinquency and crime. In D. Duffee, R. D. Crutchfield, S. Mastrofski, L. Mazerolle, D. McDowall, & B. Ostram (Eds.), CJ2000: Innovations in measurement and analysis (pp. 33-83). Washington, DC: National Institute of Justice.
24. Walters, G.D. (1995). The Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles: Part I. Reliability and preliminary validity. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 22, 307-325.
25. Walters, G.D. (2002). The Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles: A review and meta-analysis. Assessment, 9, 278-291.
26. Walters, G.D. (2003). Predicting criminal justice outcomes with the Psychopathy Checklist and Lifestyle Criminality Screening Form: A meta-analytic comparison. Behavioral Sciences and the Law, 21, 89-102.
27. Walters, G.D. (2009). Effect of a longer versus shorter test-release interval on recidivism prediction with the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking Styles (PICTS). International Journal of Offender Therapy and Comparative Criminology, 53, 665-678.
28. Walters, G.D., Knight, R.A., Grann, M., & Dahle, K.-P. (2008). Incremental validity of the Psychopathy Checklist facet scores: Predicting release outcome in six samples. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 117, 396-405.
29. Walters, G.D., White, T.W., & Denney, D. (1991). The Lifestyle Criminality Screening Form: Preliminary data. Criminal Justice and Behavior, 18, 406-418.
30. Webster, C.K., Douglas, K.S., Eaves, D., & Hart, S.D. (1997). HCR-20 assessing risk for violence: Version II. Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada: Mental Health Law & Policy Institute, Simon Fraser University.
31. Yang, M., Wong, S.C.P., & Coid, J. (2010). The efficacy of violence prediction: A meta-analytic comparison of nine risk assessment tools. Psychological Bulletin, 136, 740-767.