Rain and the democratic window of opportunity

Econometrica

Volumn 79, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 923-947

  Brückner, Markus ^a   Ciccone, Antonio ^b,c  

^a DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS   (Spain)

^b UNIVERSITAT POMPEU FABRA   (Spain)

^c BARCELONA GRADUATE SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS   (Spain)

Author keywords

Democratization; Transitory economic shocks

Indexed keywords

EID: 79955583106     PISSN: 00129682     EISSN: 14680262     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3982/ECTA8183     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. Acemoglu, D., and J. Robinson (2001): "A Theory of Political Transitions, "American Economic Review, 91, 938-963. DOI: 10.1257/aer.91.4.938
2. Acemoglu, D., and J. Robinson (2006): Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy. New York: Cambridge University Press.
3. Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson, J. Robinson, and P. Yared (2008): "Income and Democracy, "American Economic Review, 98, 808-842. DOI: 10.1257/aer.98.3.808
4. Acemoglu, D., S. Johnson, J. Robinson, and P. Yared (2009): "Reevaluating the Modernization Hypothesis, "Journal of Monetary Economics, 56, 1043-1058. DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2009.10.002
5. Adler, R., G. Huffman, A. Chang, R. Ferraro, P. Xie, J. Janowiak, B. Rudolf, U. Schneider, S. Curtis, D. Bolvin, A. Gruber, J. Susskind, P. Arkin, and E. Nelkin (2003): "The Version 2 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) Monthly Precipitation, Analysis (1979-Present), "Journal of Hydrometeorology, 4, 1147-1167. DOI: 10.1175/1525-7541
6. Andrews, D., and J. Stock (2005): "Inference With Weak Instruments, "Technical Paper 0313, NBER.
7. Barrios, S., L. Bertinelli, and E. Strobl (2010): "Trends in Rainfall and Economic Growth in Africa: A Neglected Cause of the African Growth Tragedy, "Review of Economics and Statistics, 92, 350-366.
8. Barro, R. (1999): "Determinants of Democracy, "Journal of Political Economy, 107, S158-S183. DOI: 10.1086/250107
9. Benson, C., and E. Clay (1998): "The Impact of Drought on Sub-Saharan Economies, "Technical Paper 401, World Bank, Washington
10. Berger, H., and M. Spoerer (2001): "Economic Crises and the European Revolutions of 1848, "Journal of Economic History, 61, 293-326. DOI: 10.1017/S0022050701028029
11. Blundell, R., and S. Bond (1998): "Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models, "Journal of Econometrics, 87, 115-143. DOI: 10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8
12. Bowman, A., and A. Azzalini (1997): Applied Smoothing Techniques for Data Analysis. Oxford: Clarendon Press.
13. Bratton, M., and N. Van De Walle (1997): Democratic Experiments in Africa: Regime Transitions in Comparative Perspective. New York: Cambridge University Press.
14. Brückner, M., and A. Ciccone (2008): "Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity, "Discussion Paper 6691, CEPR
15. Brückner, M., and A. Ciccone (2011): "Supplement to 'Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity', "Econometrica Supplemental Material, 79
16. Burke, P., and A. Leigh (2010): "Do Output Contractions Trigger Democratic Change? American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2, 124-157.
17. Cekan, J. (1993): "Famine Coping Strategies in Central Mali, "GeoJournal, 30, 147-151. DOI: 10.1007/BF00808131
18. Collier, P., and A. Hoeffler (1998): "On Economic Causes of Civil War, "Oxford Economic Papers, 50, 563-573. DOI: 10.1093/oep/50.4.563
19. Deaton, A. (2005): "Measuring Poverty in a Growing World (or Measuring Growth in a Poor World), "Review of Economics and Statistics, 87, 1-19. DOI: 10.1162/0034653053327612
20. Dell, M., B. Jones, and B. Olken (2008): "Climate Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence From the Last Half Century, "Working Paper 14132, NBER.
21. Epstein, D., R. Bates, J. Goldstone, I. Kristensen, and S. O'Halloran (2006): "Democratic Transitions, "American Journal of Political Science, 50, 551-569. DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-5907.2006.00201.x
22. Fafchamps, M., C. Udry, and K. Czukas (1998): "Drought and Saving in West Africa: Are Livestock a Buffer Stock? Journal of Development Economics, 55, 273-305. DOI: 10.1016/S0304-3878(98)00037-6
23. Freedom House (2007): Freedom in the World Country Ratings, 1972-2007. Washington, DC: Freedom House. Available at
24. Geddes, B. (1999): "What Do We Know About Democratization After Twenty Years? Annual Review of Political Science, 2, 115-144. DOI: 10.1146/annurev.polisci.2.1.115
25. Glaeser, E., R. La Porta, F. Lopez-de-Silanes, and A. Shleifer (2004): "Do Institutions Cause Growth? Journal of Economic Growth, 9, 271-303. DOI: 10.1023/B:JOEG.0000038933.16398.ed
26. Greene, W. (2003): Econometric Analysis. New York: Prentice Hall.
27. Greene, W. (2004): "The Behavior of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator of Limited Dependent Variable Models in the Presence of Fixed Effects, "Econometrics Journal, 7, 98-119. DOI: 10.1111/j.1368-423X.2004.00123.x
28. Haggard, S., and R. Kaufman (1995): The Political Economy of Democratic Transitions. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
29. Heston, A. (1994): "A Brief Review of Some Problems in Using National Accounts Data in Level of Output Comparisons and Growth Studies, "Journal of Development Economics, 44, 29-52. DOI: 10.1016/0304-3878(94)00004-2
30. Heston, A., R. Summers, and B. Aten (2006): "Penn World Table Version 6.2, "Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices, University of Pennsylvania Available at
31. Huntington, S. (1991): The Third Wave: Democratization in the Late Twentieth Century. Norman: University of Oklahoma Press.
32. Lipset, S. (1959): "Some Social Prerequisites for Democracy: Economic Development and Political Legitimacy, "American Political Science Review, 53, 69-105. DOI: 10.2307/1951731
33. Marshall, M., and K. Jaggers (2005): "Polity IV Project: Dataset Users' Manual, "Center for Global Policy, George Mason University Available at [Polity IV Data Computer File, Version p4v2004, Center for International Development and Conflict Management, University of Maryland, College Park, MD.]
34. Matsuura, K., and C. Willmott (2007): "Terrestrial Air Temperature and Precipitation: 1900-2006 Gridded Monthly Time Series, Version 1.01, "University of Delaware Available at
35. Miguel, E., S. Satyanath, and E. Sergenti (2004): "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach, "Journal of Political Economy, 112, 725-753. DOI: 10.1086/421174
36. Nicholson, S., B. Some, J. McCollum, E. Nelkin, D. Klotter, Y. Berte, B. Diallo, I. Gaye, G. Kpabeba, O. Ndiaye, J. Noukpozounkou, M. Tanu, A. Thiam, A. Toure, and A. Traore (2003): "Validation of TRMM and Other Rainfall Estimates With a High-Density Gauge Dataset for West Africa. Part I: Validation of GPCC Rainfall Product and Pre-TRMM Satellite and Blended Products, "Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 42, 1337-1354. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0450
37. Paxson, C. (1992): "Using Weather Variability to Estimate the Response of Savings to Transitory Income in Thailand, "American Economic Review, 82, 15-33.
38. Persson, T., and G. Tabellini (2003): The Economic Effects of Constitutions. Cambridge: MIT Press.
39. Persson, T., and G. Tabellini (2006): "Democracy and Development. The Devil in Detail, "American Economic Review, 96, 319-324. DOI: 10.1257/000282806777212396
40. Persson, T., and G. Tabellini (2008): "The Growth Effect of Democracy: Is It Heterogeneous and How Can It Be Estimated?" in Institutions and Economic Performance, ed. by E. Helpman Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
41. Przeworski, A., and F. Limongi (1997): "Modernization: Theories and Facts, "World Politics, 49, 155-183. DOI: 10.1353/wp.1997.0004
42. Przeworski, A., M. Alvarez, J. Cheibub, and F. Limongi (2000): Democracy and Development: Political Institutions and the Well-Being of the World, 1950-1990. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
43. Rudolf, B., H. Hauschild, W. Rüth, and U. Schneider (1994): "Terrestrial Precipitation Analysis: Operational Method and Required Density of Point Measurements, "in NATO ASI I/26, Global Precipitations and Climate Change, ed. by M. Desbois and F. Desalmand Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 173-186.
44. Wooldridge, J. (2002): Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge: MIT Press.
45. World Development Indicators (2009): Online Database, World Bank
46. World Meteorological Organization (1985): "Review of Requirements for Area-Averaged Precipitation Data, Surface Based and Space Based Estimation Techniques, Space and Time Sampling, Accuracy and Error, Data Exchange, "WCP 100, WMO/TD 115, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva