Northern Hemisphere modes of variability and the timing of spring in western North America

Journal of Climate

Volumn 24, Issue 15, 2011, Pages 4003-4014

  Ault, Toby R ^a   Macalady, Alison K ^a   Pederson, Gregory T ^b   Betancourt, Julio L ^b   Schwartz, Mark D ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA   (United States)

^b U S GEOLOGICAL SURVEY   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN MILWAUKEE   (United States)

Author keywords

North America; Principal components analysis; Seasonal variability; Spring season; Trends

Indexed keywords

NORTH AMERICA; PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS ANALYSIS; SEASONAL VARIABILITY; SPRING SEASON; TRENDS;

INDEPENDENT COMPONENT ANALYSIS; SPRINGS (COMPONENTS);

PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS;

NORTHERN HEMISPHERE; PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS; SEASONAL VARIATION; SPRING (SEASON);

NORTH AMERICA;

EID: 79955151114     PISSN: 08948755     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2011JCLI4069.1     Document Type: Article

References (51)

1. Abatzoglou, J. T., 2010: Influence of the PNA on declining mountain snowpack in the western United States. Int. J. Climatol., 31, 1135-1142, doi:10.1002/joc.2137.
2. Abatzoglou, J. T., and K. T. Redmond, 2007: Asymmetry between trends in spring and autumn temperature and circulation regimes over western North America. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L18808, doi:10.1029/2007GL030891.
3. Alley, W.M., 1984: The Palmer drought severity index-Limitations and assumptions. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 23, 1100-1109.
4. Barnett, T. P., and Coauthors, 2008: Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States. Science, 319, 1080-1083.
5. Betancourt, J., M. Schwartz, D. Breshears, D. Cayan, M. Dettinger, D. Inouye, E. Post, and B. Reed, 2005: Implementing a U.S. National Phenology Network. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 86, 51, doi:10.1029/2005EO510005.
6. Bonfils, C., and Coauthors, 2008: Detection and attribution of temperature changes in the mountainous western United States. J. Climate, 21, 6404-6424.
7. Brown, J., S. Li, and N. Bhagabati, 1999: Long-term trend toward earlier breeding in an American bird: A response to global warming? Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 96, 5565-5569.
8. Caprio, J. M., 1993: Western regional phenological summary of information on honeysuckle and lilac first bloom phase covering the period 1956-1991. Montana Agricultural Experiment Station State Climate Center Circular, No. 3, 92 pp.
9. Cayan, D. R., S. A. Kammerdiener, M. D. Dettinger, J. M. Caprio, and D. H. Peterson, 2001: Changes in the onset of spring in the western United States. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 399-415.
10. Das, T., and Coauthors, 2009: Structure and detectability of trends in hydrological measures over the western United States. J. Hydrometeor., 10, 871-892.
11. de Beurs, K. M., and G. M. Henebry, 2008: Northern annular mode effects on the land surface phenologies of northern Eurasia. J. Climate, 21, 4257-4279.
12. Forister, M., and A. Shapiro, 2003: Climatic trends and advancing spring flight of butterflies in lowland California. Global Change Biol., 9, 1130-1135.
13. Guttman, N. B., 1999: Accepting the standardized precipitation index: A calculation algorithm. J. Amer. Water Resour. Assoc., 35, 311-322.
14. Hamlet, A. F., P. W. Mote, M. P. Clark, and D. P. Lettenmaier, 2007: Twentieth-century trends in runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture in the western United States. J. Climate, 20, 1468-1486.
15. Hidalgo, H. G., and Coauthors, 2009: Detection and attribution of streamflow timing changes to climate change in the western United States. J. Climate, 22, 3838-3855.
16. Inouye, D. W., 2008: Effects of climate change on phenology, frost damage, and floral abundance of montane wildflowers. Ecology, 89, 353-362.
17. Johnson, R. H., P. E. Ciesielski, B. D. McNoldy, P. J. Rogers, and R. K. Taft, 2007: Multiscale variability of the flow during the North American Monsoon Experiment. J. Climate, 20, 1628-1648.
18. Kalnay, E., and Coauthors, 1996: The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77, 437-471.
19. Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, Eds., 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 188 pp.
20. Littell, J. S., D. McKenzie, D. L. Peterson, and A. L. Westerling, 2009: Climate and wildfire area burned in western U.S. ecoprovinces, 1916-2003. Ecol. Appl., 19, 1003-1021.
21. McAfee, S. A., and J. L. Russell, 2008: Northern annular mode impact on spring climate in the western United States. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L17701, doi:10.1029/2008GL034828.
22. McCabe, G., and M. Clark, 2005: Trends and variability in snowmelt runoff in the western United States. J. Hydrometeor., 6, 476-482.
23. McKenzie, D., Z. Gedalof, D. Peterson, and P.Mote, 2004: Climatic change, wildfire, and conservation. Conserv. Biol., 18, 890-902.
24. Moore, R. D., S. W. Fleming, B. Menounos, R. Wheate, A. Fountain, K. Stahl, K. Holm, and M. Jakob, 2009: Glacier change in western North America: Influences on hydrology, geomorphic hazards and water quality. Hydrol. Processes, 23, 42-61.
25. Mote, P., A. Hamlet, M. Clark, and D. Lettenmaier, 2005: Declining mountain snowpack in western North America. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 39-49.
26. Palmer, W. C., 1965: Meteorological drought. U.S. Department of Commerce, Research Paper 45, 65 pp.
27. Parmesan, C., 2006: Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Annu. Rev. Ecol. Evol. Syst., 37, 637-669, doi:10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.37.091305.110100.
28. Pierce, D. W., and Coauthors, 2008: Attribution of declining western U.S. snowpack to human effects. J. Climate, 21, 6425-6444.
29. Preisendorfer, R. W., C. D. Mobley, and T. P. Barnett, 1988: The principal discriminant method of prediction-Theory and evaluation. J. Geophys. Res., 93, 10 815-10 830.
30. Qian, T. T., A. Dai, K. E. Trenberth, and K. W. Oleson, 2006: Simulation of global land surface conditions from 1948 to 2004. Part I: Forcing data and evaluations. J. Hydrometeor., 7, 953-975.
31. Quadrelli, R., and J. M. Wallace, 2002: Dependence of the structure of the Northern Hemisphere annular mode on the polarity of ENSO. Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 2132, doi:10.1029/2002GL015807.
32. Quadrelli, R., and J. M. Wallace, 2004: A simplified linear framework for interpreting patterns of Northern Hemisphere wintertime climate variability. J. Climate, 17, 3728-3744.
33. Schwartz, M. D., 1985: The advance of phenological spring across eastern and central North America. Ph.D. thesis, University of Kansas, 85 pp.
34. Schwartz, M. D., 1992: Phenology and springtime surface layer change. Mon. Wea. Rev., 120, 2570-2578.
35. Schwartz, M. D., and G. A. Marotz, 1986: An approach to examining regional atmosphere plant interactions with phenological data. J. Biogeogr., 13, 551-560.
36. Schwartz, M. D., and G. A. Marotz, 1988: Synoptic events and spring phenology. Phys. Geogr., 9, 151-161.
37. Schwartz, M. D., and T. R. Karl, 1990: Spring phenology-Nature's experiment to detect the effect of greenup on surface maximum temperatures. Mon. Wea. Rev., 118, 883-890.
38. Schwartz, M. D., and B. E. Reiter, 2000: Changes in North American spring. Int. J. Climatol., 20, 929-932.
39. Schwartz, M. D., and X. Chen, 2002: Examining the onset of spring in China. Climate Res., 21, 157-164.
40. Schwartz, M. D., G. J. Carbone, G. L. Reighard, and W. R. Okie, 1997: A model to predict peach phenology and maturity using meteorological variables. HortScience, 32, 213-216.
41. Schwartz, M. D., R. Ahas, and A. Aasa, 2006: Onset of spring starting earlier across the Northern Hemisphere. Global Change Biol., 12, 343-351.
42. Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, M. Marquis, K. Averyt, M. M. B. Tignor, H. L. Miller, and Z. Chen, Eds., 2007: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press, 996 pp.
43. Stenseth, N., A. Mysterud, G. Ottersen, J. Hurrell, K. Chan, and M. Lima, 2002: Ecological effects of climate fluctuations. Science, 297, 1292-1296.
44. Stewart, I. T., D. R. Cayan, and M. D. Dettinger, 2005: Changes toward earlier streamflow timing across western North America. J. Climate, 18, 1136-1155.
45. Thompson, D.W. J., and J. M. Wallace, 1998: The Arctic oscillation signature in the wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 1297-1300.
46. Thompson, D. W. J., and J. M. Wallace, 2000: Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part I: Month-to-month variability. J. Climate, 13, 1000-1016.
47. Thompson, D. W. J., and J. M. Wallace, 2001: Regional climate impacts of the Northern Hemisphere annular mode. Science, 293, 85-89.
48. Thompson, D. W. J., J. M. Wallace, and G. C. Hegerl, 2000: Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part II: Trends. J. Climate, 13, 1018-1036.
49. Wallace, J. M., and D. S. Gutzler, 1981: Teleconnections in the geopotential height field during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 109, 784-812.
50. Westerling, A. L., H. G. Hidalgo, D. R. Cayan, and T. W. Swetnam, 2006: Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity. Science, 313, 940-943.
51. Zhang, Y., J. Wallace, and D. S. Battisti, 1997: ENSO-like interdecadal variability: 1900-93. J. Climate, 10, 1004-1020.