메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 78, Issue 2, 2011, Pages 523-558

Investor overconfidence and the forward premium puzzle

Author keywords

Carry trade; Exchange rates; Forward bias; Investor overconfidence; Monetary policy; Money supply; PPP

Indexed keywords

CAPITAL FLOW; CURRENCY MARKET; ECONOMIC ANALYSIS; EXCHANGE RATE; FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT; INFLATION; METHODOLOGY; MODEL TEST; MODEL VALIDATION; PROFITABILITY; PURCHASING POWER PARITY;

EID: 79953318408     PISSN: 00346527     EISSN: 1467937X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/restud/rdq013     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (84)

References (74)
  • 1
    • 0242345456 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange
    • ANDERSEN, T. G., BOLLERSLEV, T., FRANCIS, X. D. and CLARA, V. (2003), "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange", American Economic Review, 93, 38-62.
    • (2003) American Economic Review , vol.93 , pp. 38-62
    • Andersen, T.G.1    Bollerslev, T.2    Francis, X.D.3    Clara, V.4
  • 2
    • 34547303220 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Random Walk Expectations and the Forward Discount Puzzle
    • BACCHETTA, P. and VAN WINCOOP, E. (2007), "Random Walk Expectations and the Forward Discount Puzzle", American Economic Review, 97, 346-350.
    • (2007) American Economic Review , vol.97 , pp. 346-350
    • Bacchetta, P.1    van Wincoop, E.2
  • 3
    • 77955140950 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Infrequent Portfolio Decisions: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle
    • BACCHETTA, P. and VAN WINCOOP, E. (2010), "Infrequent Portfolio Decisions: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle", American Economic Review, 100, 870-904.
    • (2010) American Economic Review , vol.100 , pp. 870-904
    • Bacchetta, P.1    van Wincoop, E.2
  • 5
    • 0002840050 scopus 로고
    • The Welfare Cost of Inflationary Finance
    • BAILEY, M. (1956), "The Welfare Cost of Inflationary Finance", Journal of Political Economy, 64, 93-110.
    • (1956) Journal of Political Economy , vol.64 , pp. 93-110
    • Bailey, M.1
  • 6
    • 0013006523 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Another Look at Long-run Money Demand
    • BALL, L. (2001), "Another Look at Long-run Money Demand", Journal of Monetary Economics, 47, 31-44.
    • (2001) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.47 , pp. 31-44
    • Ball, L.1
  • 7
    • 0037497348 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors
    • BARBER, B. and ODEAN, T. (2000), "Trading is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors", Journal of Finance, 55, 773-806.
    • (2000) Journal of finance , vol.55 , pp. 773-806
    • Barber, B.1    Odean, T.2
  • 8
    • 66049100177 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Survey of Behavioral Finance
    • Constantinides, G. M., Harris, M. and Stultz, R. (eds) (Amsterdam: Elsevier Science, North Holland)
    • BARBERIS, N. and THALER, R. H. (2003), "A Survey of Behavioral Finance", in Constantinides, G. M., Harris, M. and Stultz, R. (eds) Handbook of the Economics of Finance (Amsterdam: Elsevier Science, North Holland) 1053-1128.
    • (2003) Handbook of the Economics of Finance , pp. 1053-1128
    • Barberis, N.1    Thaler, R.H.2
  • 9
    • 0000722183 scopus 로고
    • Inflation, the Payments Period, and the Demand for Money
    • BARRO, R. (1970), "Inflation, the Payments Period, and the Demand for Money", Journal of Political Economy, 78, 1228-1263.
    • (1970) Journal of Political Economy , vol.78 , pp. 1228-1263
    • Barro, R.1
  • 10
    • 0030539421 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Time Variation of Risk and Return in Foreign Exchange Markets: A General Equilibrium Perspective
    • BEKAERT, G. (1996), "The Time Variation of Risk and Return in Foreign Exchange Markets: A General Equilibrium Perspective", Review of Financial Studies, 9, 427-470.
    • (1996) Review of Financial Studies , vol.9 , pp. 427-470
    • Bekaert, G.1
  • 13
    • 16344367290 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Judgemental Overconfidence, Self-Monitoring, and Trading Performance in an Experimental Financial Market
    • BIAIS, B., HILTON, D., MAZURIER, K. and POUGET, S. (2005), "Judgemental Overconfidence, Self-Monitoring, and Trading Performance in an Experimental Financial Market", Review of Economic Studies, 72, 287-312.
    • (2005) Review of Economic Studies , vol.72 , pp. 287-312
    • Biais, B.1    Hilton, D.2    Mazurier, K.3    Pouget, S.4
  • 14
    • 0034071610 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Darwinian Selection Does Not Eliminate Irrational Traders
    • BIAIS, B. and SHADUR, R. (2000), "Darwinian Selection Does Not Eliminate Irrational Traders", European Economic Review, 44, 469-490.
    • (2000) European Economic Review , vol.44 , pp. 469-490
    • Biais, B.1    Shadur, R.2
  • 22
    • 33847724777 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modeling Exchange Rate Passthrough After Large Devaluations
    • BURSTEIN, A., EICHENBAUM, M. and REBELO, S. (2007), "Modeling Exchange Rate Passthrough After Large Devaluations", Journal of Monetary Economics, 54, 346-368.
    • (2007) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.54 , pp. 346-368
    • Burstein, A.1    Eichenbaum, M.2    Rebelo, S.3
  • 23
    • 0002373493 scopus 로고
    • The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation
    • Friedman, M. (ed.) (Chicago: University of Chicago Press)
    • CAGAN, P. (1956), "The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation", in Friedman, M. (ed.) Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money (Chicago: University of Chicago Press) 25-117.
    • (1956) Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money , pp. 25-117
    • Cagan, P.1
  • 24
    • 48749143178 scopus 로고
    • Staggered Prices in a Utility-Mazimizing Framework
    • CALVO, G. A. (1983), "Staggered Prices in a Utility-Mazimizing Framework", Journal of Monetary Economics, 12, 383-398.
    • (1983) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.12 , pp. 383-398
    • Calvo, G.A.1
  • 25
    • 84959821636 scopus 로고
    • Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Birds Eye View
    • CAMPBELL, J. and SHILLER, R. (1991), "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Birds Eye View", Review of Economic Studies, 58, 495-514.
    • (1991) Review of Economic Studies , vol.58 , pp. 495-514
    • Campbell, J.1    Shiller, R.2
  • 27
    • 12844280551 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Monetary Policy and Long-horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity
    • CHINN, M. and MEREDITH, G. (2004), "Monetary Policy and Long-horizon Uncovered Interest Rate Parity", IMF Staff Papers, 51, 409-430.
    • (2004) IMF Staff Papers , vol.51 , pp. 409-430
    • Chinn, M.1    Meredith, G.2
  • 29
    • 57749111725 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Overconfidence in Forecasts of Own Performance: An Experimental Study
    • CLARK, J. and FRIESEN, L. (2009), "Overconfidence in Forecasts of Own Performance: An Experimental Study", Economic Journal, 119, 229-251.
    • (2009) Economic Journal , vol.119 , pp. 229-251
    • Clark, J.1    Friesen, L.2
  • 30
    • 0031670190 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Monetary Policy Rules in Practice. Some International Evidence
    • CLARIDA, R., GALÍ, J. and GERTLER, M. (1998), "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice. Some International Evidence", European Economic Review, 42, 1033-1067.
    • (1998) European Economic Review , vol.42 , pp. 1033-1067
    • Clarida, R.1    Galí, J.2    Gertler, M.3
  • 31
    • 0000752458 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Optimal Monetary Policy in Open Versus Closed Economies: An Integrated Approach
    • CLARIDA, R., GALÍ, J. and GERTLER, M. (2001), "Optimal Monetary Policy in Open Versus Closed Economies: An Integrated Approach", American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 91, 248-252.
    • (2001) American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings , vol.91 , pp. 248-252
    • Clarida, R.1    Galí, J.2    Gertler, M.3
  • 32
    • 61349086034 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Is Bad News about Inflation Good News for the Exchange Rate? And, If So, Can That Tell Us Anything About the Conduct of Monetary Policy?
    • Cambell, J. Y. (ed.) (Chicago: University of Chicago Press)
    • CLARIDA, R. and WALDMAN, D. (2008), "Is Bad News about Inflation Good News for the Exchange Rate? And, If So, Can That Tell Us Anything About the Conduct of Monetary Policy?" in Cambell, J. Y. (ed.) Asset Prices and Monetary Policy (Chicago: University of Chicago Press) 371-392.
    • (2008) Asset Prices and Monetary Policy , pp. 371-392
    • Clarida, R.1    Waldman, D.2
  • 33
    • 0002429944 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • New Facts in Finance, Economic Perspectives
    • COCHRANE, J. H. (1999), "New Facts in Finance", Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 23, 36-58.
    • (1999) Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago , vol.23 , pp. 36-58
    • Cochrane, J.H.1
  • 35
    • 8744258405 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreaction
    • DANIEL, K., HIRSHLEIFER, D. and SUBRAHMANYAM, A. (1998), "Investor Psychology and Security Market Under- and Overreaction", Journal of Finance, 53, 1839-1886.
    • (1998) Journal of Finance , vol.53 , pp. 1839-1886
    • Daniel, K.1    Hirshleifer, D.2    Subrahmanyam, A.3
  • 36
    • 0039699516 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Overconfidence, Arbitrage, and Equilibrium Asset Pricing
    • DANIEL, K., HIRSHLEIFER, D. and SUBRAHMANYAM, A. (2001), "Overconfidence, Arbitrage, and Equilibrium Asset Pricing", Journal of Finance, 56, 921-965.
    • (2001) Journal of Finance , vol.56 , pp. 921-965
    • Daniel, K.1    Hirshleifer, D.2    Subrahmanyam, A.3
  • 37
    • 84900013243 scopus 로고
    • Does the Stock Market Overreact?
    • DEBONDT, W. F. M. and THALER, R. H. (1985), "Does the Stock Market Overreact?", Journal of Finance, 40, 793-808.
    • (1985) Journal of Finance , vol.40 , pp. 793-808
    • Debondt, W.F.M.1    Thaler, R.H.2
  • 38
    • 0030163502 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence
    • ENGEL, C. (1996), "The Forward Discount Anomaly and the Risk Premium: A Survey of Recent Evidence", Journal of Empirical Finance, 3, 123-192.
    • (1996) Journal of Empirical Finance , vol.3 , pp. 123-192
    • Engel, C.1
  • 39
    • 48549113655 scopus 로고
    • Forward and Spot Exchange Rates
    • FAMA, E. (1984), "Forward and Spot Exchange Rates", Journal of Monetary Economics, 14, 319-338.
    • (1984) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.14 , pp. 319-338
    • Fama, E.1
  • 40
    • 0000064728 scopus 로고
    • The Information in Long-maturity Forward Rates
    • FAMA, E. and BLISS. R. R. (1987), "The Information in Long-maturity Forward Rates", American Economic Review, 77, 680-692.
    • (1987) American Economic Review , vol.77 , pp. 680-692
    • Fama, E.1    Bliss, R.R.2
  • 41
    • 84982690175 scopus 로고
    • Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests for a Cross Section of 17 Currencies
    • FRANKEL, J. and CHINN, M. D. (1993), "Exchange Rate Expectations and the Risk Premium: Tests for a Cross Section of 17 Currencies", Review of International Economics, 1, 136-144.
    • (1993) Review of International Economics , vol.1 , pp. 136-144
    • Frankel, J.1    Chinn, M.D.2
  • 42
    • 0002433255 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Chartists, Fundamentalists, and the Demand for Dollars
    • Courakis, A. S. and Taylor, M. P. (eds) (New York: Oxford University Press)
    • FRANKEL, J. and FROOT, K. (2009), "Chartists, Fundamentalists, and the Demand for Dollars," in Courakis, A. S. and Taylor, M. P. (eds) Private Behaviour and Government Policy in Interdependent Economies (New York: Oxford University Press) 73-126.
    • (2009) Private Behaviour and Government Policy in Interdependent Economies , pp. 73-126
    • Frankel, J.1    Froot, K.2
  • 43
    • 33749360299 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantifying Cognitive Biases in Analyst Earnings Forecasts
    • FRIESEN, G. and WELLER, P. (2006), "Quantifying Cognitive Biases in Analyst Earnings Forecasts", Journal of Financial Markets, 9, 333-365.
    • (2006) Journal of Financial Markets , vol.9 , pp. 333-365
    • Friesen, G.1    Weller, P.2
  • 44
    • 84959841139 scopus 로고
    • Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?
    • FROOT, K. A. and FRANKEL, J. A. (1989), "Forward Discount Bias: Is It an Exchange Risk Premium?", Quarterly Journal of Economics, 104, 139-161.
    • (1989) Quarterly Journal of Economics , vol.104 , pp. 139-161
    • Froot, K.A.1    Frankel, J.A.2
  • 47
    • 22144493780 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy
    • GALÍ, J. and MONACELLI, T. (2005), "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy", Review of Economic Studies, 72, 707-734.
    • (2005) Review of Economic Studies , vol.72 , pp. 707-734
    • Galí, J.1    Monacelli, T.2
  • 48
    • 0002419741 scopus 로고
    • An Alternative Method of Estimating the Cagan Money Demand Function in Hyperinflation Under Rational Expectations
    • GOODFRIEND, M. (1982), "An Alternative Method of Estimating the Cagan Money Demand Function in Hyperinflation Under Rational Expectations", Journal of Monetary Economics, 9, 43-57.
    • (1982) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.9 , pp. 43-57
    • Goodfriend, M.1
  • 50
    • 84889458757 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Perspectives on Probability Judgment Calibration
    • Koehler, D. J. and Harvey, N. (eds) (Malden: Blackwell Publishing)
    • GRIFFIN, D. and BRENNER, I. (2004), "Perspectives on Probability Judgment Calibration", in Koehler, D. J. and Harvey, N.; (eds) Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making (Malden: Blackwell Publishing) 177-199.
    • (2004) Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making , pp. 177-199
    • Griffin, D.1    Brenner, I.2
  • 51
    • 0000398111 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing
    • HIRSHLEIFER, D. (2001), "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing", Journal of Finance, 56, 1533-1597.
    • (2001) Journal of Finance , vol.56 , pp. 1533-1597
    • Hirshleifer, D.1
  • 53
    • 0036809886 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Production, Growth and Business Cycles: Technical Appendix
    • KING, R. G., PLOSSER C. I. and REBELO, S. T. (2002), "Production, Growth and Business Cycles: Technical Appendix", Computational Economics, 20, 87-116.
    • (2002) Computational Economics , vol.20 , pp. 87-116
    • King, R.G.1    Plosser, C.I.2    Rebelo, S.T.3
  • 54
    • 77956852950 scopus 로고
    • Puzzles in International Financial Markets
    • Grossman, S. and Rogoff, K. (eds) (Amsterdam: North Holland, Elsevier)
    • LEWIS, K. (1995), "Puzzles in International Financial Markets", in Grossman, S. and Rogoff, K. (eds) The Handbook of International Economics (Amsterdam: North Holland, Elsevier) 1913-1971.
    • (1995) The Handbook of International Economics , pp. 1913-1971
    • Lewis, K.1
  • 55
    • 0000998118 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Inflation and Welfare
    • LUCAS, R. (2000), "Inflation and Welfare", Econometrica, 68, 247-274.
    • (2000) Econometrica , vol.68 , pp. 247-274
    • Lucas, R.1
  • 56
    • 0001538138 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Rethinking Deviations from Uncovered Parity: The Role of Covariance Risk and Noise
    • MARK, N. C. and WU, Y. (1998), "Rethinking Deviations from Uncovered Parity: The Role of Covariance Risk and Noise", Economic Journal, 108, 1686-1706.
    • (1998) Economic Journal , vol.108 , pp. 1686-1706
    • Mark, N.C.1    Wu, Y.2
  • 57
    • 38149143534 scopus 로고
    • A Reconsideration of the Uncovered Interest Parity Relationship
    • MCCALLUM, B. (1994), "A Reconsideration of the Uncovered Interest Parity Relationship", Journal of Monetary Economics, 33, 105-132.
    • (1994) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.33 , pp. 105-132
    • Mccallum, B.1
  • 58
    • 0034451233 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Monetary Policy for an Open Economy: An Alternative Framework with Optimizing Agents and Sticky Prices
    • MCCALLUM, B. and NELSON, E. (2000), "Monetary Policy for an Open Economy: An Alternative Framework with Optimizing Agents and Sticky Prices", Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 16, 74-91.
    • (2000) Oxford Review of Economic Policy , vol.16 , pp. 74-91
    • Mccallum, B.1    Nelson, E.2
  • 60
    • 43449094045 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Trouble with Overconfidence
    • MOORE, D. and HEALY, P. J. (2008), "The Trouble with Overconfidence", Psychological Review, 115, 502-517.
    • (2008) Psychological Review , vol.115 , pp. 502-517
    • Moore, D.1    Healy, P.J.2
  • 61
    • 38349011582 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Working Paper, Brandeis University, SSRN No. 1108787
    • OBERLECHNER, T. and OSLER, C. (2008), "Overconfidence in Currency Markets" (Working Paper, Brandeis University, SSRN No. 1108787: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1108787).
    • (2008) Overconfidence in Currency Markets
    • Oberlechner, T.1    Osler, C.2
  • 63
    • 0346907827 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Volume, Volatility, Price and Profit When All Traders Are Above Average
    • ODEAN, T. (1998), "Volume, Volatility, Price and Profit When All Traders Are Above Average", Journal of Finance, 53, 1887-1934.
    • (1998) Journal of Finance , vol.53 , pp. 1887-1934
    • Odean, T.1
  • 64
    • 33646497234 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Investor Attention, Overconfidence and Category Learning
    • PENG, L. and XIONG, W. (2006), "Investor Attention, Overconfidence and Category Learning", Journal of Financial Economics, 80, 563-602.
    • (2006) Journal of Financial Economics , vol.80 , pp. 563-602
    • Peng, L.1    Xiong, W.2
  • 65
    • 0027455876 scopus 로고
    • Money Demand, the Cagan Model and the Inflation Index: Some Latin American Evidence
    • PHYLAKTIS, K. and TAYLOR, M. (1993), "Money Demand, the Cagan Model and the Inflation Index: Some Latin American Evidence", Review of Economics and Statistics, 75, 32-37.
    • (1993) Review of Economics and Statistics , vol.75 , pp. 32-37
    • Phylaktis, K.1    Taylor, M.2
  • 68
    • 0037936040 scopus 로고
    • The Demand for Money during Hyperinflations under Rational Expectations: I
    • SARGENT, T. J. (1977) "The Demand for Money during Hyperinflations under Rational Expectations: I." International Economic Review, 18, 59-82.
    • (1977) International Economic Review , vol.18 , pp. 59-82
    • Sargent, T.J.1
  • 69
    • 0942288976 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles
    • SCHEINKMAN, J. and XIONG, W. (2003), "Overconfidence and Speculative Bubbles", Journal of Political Economy, 111, 1183-1219.
    • (2003) Journal of Political Economy , vol.111 , pp. 1183-1219
    • Scheinkman, J.1    Xiong, W.2
  • 70
    • 0002912008 scopus 로고
    • A Theory of Trading in Stock Index Futures
    • SUBRAHMANYAM, A. (1991), "A Theory of Trading in Stock Index Futures", Review of Financial Studies, 4, 17-51.
    • (1991) Review of Financial Studies , vol.4 , pp. 17-51
    • Subrahmanyam, A.1
  • 71
    • 74249122981 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium
    • VERDELHAN, A. (2010), "A Habit-Based Explanation of the Exchange Rate Risk Premium", Journal of Finance, 65, 123-146.
    • (2010) Journal of Finance , vol.65 , pp. 123-146
    • Verdelhan, A.1
  • 72
    • 77957031257 scopus 로고
    • Financial decision-making in markets and firms: A behavioral perspective, Finance
    • Jarrow, R.A., Maksimovic, V. and Ziemba,W.T., eds. (Amsterdam: Elsevier)
    • WERNER F. M. De BONDT,W. F. M. and THALER, R. H. (1995) "Financial decision-making in markets and firms: A behavioral perspective," in: Jarrow, R.A., Maksimovic, V. and Ziemba,W.T., eds., Finance, Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science (Amsterdam: Elsevier) 385-410.
    • (1995) Handbooks in Operations Research and Management Science , pp. 385-410
    • Werner, F.M.1    De Bondt, W.F.M.2    Thaler, R.H.3
  • 74
    • 0030119294 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Nominal Price Rigidity, Money Supply Endogeneity, and Business Cycles
    • YUN, T. (1996), "Nominal Price Rigidity, Money Supply Endogeneity, and Business Cycles", Journal of Monetary Economics, 37, 345-70.
    • (1996) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.37 , pp. 345-370
    • Yun, T.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.