The health care workforce: Will it be ready as the boomers age? a review of how we can know (or not know) the answer

Annual Review of Public Health

Volumn 32, Issue , 2011, Pages 417-430

  Ricketts, Thomas C ^a  

^a IL   (United States)

Author keywords

demand; modeling; policy; practitioners; supply

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; ECONOMIC ASPECT; HEALTH CARE; HEALTH CARE DELIVERY; HEALTH CARE PERSONNEL; HEALTH CARE POLICY; HEALTH CARE UTILIZATION; HEALTH SERVICE; HUMAN; MEDICAL DECISION MAKING; MEDICARE; NURSE; PHYSICIAN; PRIORITY JOURNAL; REIMBURSEMENT; UNITED STATES;

HEALTH MANPOWER; HEALTH PLANNING; HUMANS; POPULATION DYNAMICS; POPULATION GROWTH; UNITED STATES;

EID: 79952828821     PISSN: 01637525     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book Series    
DOI: 10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031210-101227     Document Type: Article

References (69)

1. AAMC. 2010. Physician Shortages to Worsen Without Increases in Residency Training. Washington, DC: Assoc. Am. Med. Coll.
2. Aday LA, Andersen RM. 1974. A framework for the study of access to medical care. Health Serv. Res. 9:208-20.
3. Altman SH. 1972. Present and Future Supply of Registered Nurses. Bethesda, MD: US DHEW, Natl. Inst. Health, Div. Nurs.
4. Altman SH, Socholitzky E. 1981. The cost of ambulatory care in alternative settings: a review of major research findings. Annu. Rev. Public Health 2:117-43.
5. Am. Geriatr. Soc. 2010. The Demand for Geriatric Care and the Evident Shortage of Geriatrics Healthcare Providers: Fact Sheet. New York: Am. Geriatr. Soc.
6. Ameringer CF. 1999. State Medical Boards and the Politics of Public Protection. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Univ. Press.
7. Andersen RM. 1995. Revisiting the behavioral model and access to medical care: Does it matter? J. Health Soc. Behav. 36:1-10.
8. Anthony DL, Herndon MB, Gallagher PM, Barnato AE, Bynum JP, et al. 2009. How much do patients' preferences contribute to resource use? Health Aff. 28:864-73.
9. Arno PS, Levine C, Memmott MM. 1999. The economic value of informal caregiving. Health Aff. 18:182-88.
10. Ayanian JZ, Landrum MB, Normand S-L. 1998. Rating the appropriateness of coronary angiography- Do practicing physicians agree with an expert panel and with each other? N. Engl. J. Med. 338:1896-904. (Pubitemid 28287864)
11. Baicker K, Chandra A. 2009. Cooper's analysis is incorrect. Health Aff. 28:w116-18.
12. Birch S,Kephart G, Murphy GT,O'Brien-Pallas L, AlderR,MacKenzie A. 2009. Health human resources planning and the production of health: development of an extended analytical framework for needs-based health human resources planning. J. Public Health Manag. Pract. 15:S56-61.
13. Bodenheimer T, Lorig K, Holman H, Grumbach K. 2002. Patient self-management of chronic disease in primary care. JAMA 288:2469-75. (Pubitemid 35340544)
14. Bur. Health Prof. 2006. Physician Supply and Demand. Rockville, MD: Health Resourc. Serv. Adm., US DHHS.
15. Bur. Health Prof. 2008. The Physician Workforce: Projections and Research into Current Issues Affecting Supply and Demand. Rockville, MD: Health Resourc. Serv. Adm.
16. Chassin MR, Kosecoff J, Solomon DH, Brook RH. 1987. How coronary angiography is used. Clinical determinants of appropriateness. JAMA 258:2543-47. (Pubitemid 17146767)
17. Cooper RA. 1995. Perspectives on the physician workforce to the year 2020. JAMA 274:1534-43.
18. Cooper RA. 2008. States with more physicians have better-quality health care. Health Aff. 28(1):w103-15.
19. Cooper RA, Aiken LH. 2001. Human inputs: the health care workforce and medical markets. J. Health Polit. Policy Law 26:925-38. (Pubitemid 33116077)
20. Cooper RA, Getzen TE, Laud P. 2003. Economic expansion is a major determinant of physician supply and utilization. Health Serv. Res. 38:675-96. (Pubitemid 36570034)
21. Daniels N. 1985. Just Health Care. New York: Cambridge Univ. Press. 245 pp.
22. DeFriese GH, Barker BD. 1982. Assessing Dental Manpower Requirements: Alternative Approaches for State and Local Planning. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger.
23. Dill MJ, Salsberg ES. 2008. The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections Through 2025. Washington, DC: Cent.Workforce Stud., Assoc. Am. Med. Coll.
24. Dreesch N, Dolea C, Dal PozMR, Goubarev A, Adams O, et al. 2005. An approach to estimating human resource requirements to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. Health Policy Plan 20:267-76. (Pubitemid 41219869)
25. Elisha D, Levinson D, Grinshpoon A. 2004. A need-based model for determining staffing needs for the public sector outpatient mental health service system. J. Behav. Health Serv. Res. 31:324-33. (Pubitemid 39655079)
26. Etzioni DA, Liu JH, Maggard MA, Ko CY. 2003. The aging population and its impact on the surgery workforce. Ann. Surg. 238:170-77. (Pubitemid 38174489)
27. Feil EC, Welch HG, Fisher ES. 1993. Why estimates of physician supply and requirements disagree. JAMA 269:2659-63. (Pubitemid 23147703)
28. Feldstein PJ. 1974. A review of productivity in dentistry. In Health Manpower and Productivity, ed. J Rafferty, pp. 107-18. Lexington, MA: Heath.
29. Flowers L, Nonnemaker L. 2010. Improvements to Medicare's Preventive Services under Health Reform, PPI Fact Sheet 180, pp. 1-9. Washington, DC: AARP Public Policy Inst.
30. Gajewski JL, LeMaistre CF, Silver SM, Lill MC, Selby GB, et al. 2009. Impending challenges in the hematopoietic stem cell transplantation physician workforce. Biol. Blood Marrow Transplant. 15:1493-501.
31. Goodman DC. 2005. The physician workforce crisis: Where is the evidence? Health Aff. Suppl. Web Exclusives:W5-108-10.
32. Goodman DC, Fisher ES. 2008. Physician workforce crisis? Wrong diagnosis, wrong prescription. N. Engl. J. Med. 358:1658-61. (Pubitemid 351549912)
33. Goodman DC, Fisher ES, Bubolz TA, Mohr JE, Poage JF, Wennberg JE. 1996. Benchmarking the US physician workforce. An alternative to needs-based or demand-based planning. JAMA 276:1811-17.
34. Grumbach K. 2002. Fighting hand to hand over physician workforce policy. Health Aff. 21:13-27.
35. Hadley J. 1979. Alternative methods of evaluating health manpower distribution. Med. Care 17:1054-60. (Pubitemid 10203893)
36. Hart LG, Wagner E, Pirzada S, Nelson AF, Rosenblatt RA. 1997. Physician staffing ratios in staff-model HMOs: a cautionary tale. Health Aff. 16:55-70. (Pubitemid 127463760)
37. Hasson H, Arnetz JE. 2008. Nursing staff competence, work strain, stress and satisfaction in elderly care: a comparison of home-based care and nursing homes. J. Clin. Nurs. 17:468-81.
38. Health Resourc. Serv. Adm. (HRSA). 2010. The RegisteredNurse Population: Findings from the 2008 National Sample Survey of Registered Nurses. Rockville, MD: HRSA.
39. Inst. Med. 2008. Retooling for an Aging America.Washington, DC: Natl. Acad. Press.
40. Inst. Med. 2011. The Future of Nursing: Leading Change, Advancing Health.Washington, DC: Natl. Acad. Press. In press.
41. Jacoby I. 1991. Geographic distribution of physician manpower: the GMENAC legacy. J. Rural Health 7:427-38.
42. Kahn KL, Kosecoff J, ChassinMR, FlynnMF, Fink A, et al. 1988. Measuring the clinical appropriateness of the use of a procedure. Can we do it? Med. Care 26:415-22.
43. Kaye HS, Chapman S, Newcomer RJ, Harrington C. 2006. The personal assistance workforce: trends in supply and demand. Health Aff. 25:1113-20. (Pubitemid 44188248)
44. Kilpatrick KE, Foley WJ. 1977. Development of Design and Operational Guidelines for Optimum Manpower in HMO/PGP Settings. Vol. 1. Application of Staffing Models. Gainsville: Health Syst. Res. Div., J. Hillis Miller Health Cent., Univ. Fla. 286 pp.
45. Konrad TR, Slifkin RT, Stevens C, Miller J. 2000. Using the American Medical Association Physician Masterfile to measure physician supply in small towns. J. Rural Health 16:162-67. (Pubitemid 30627012)
46. Leape LL, Park RE, Solomon DH, Chassin MR, Kosecoff J, Brook RH. 1990. Does inappropriate use explain small-area variations in the use of health care services? JAMA 263:669-72. (Pubitemid 20042531)
47. Lee RI, Jones LW. 1933. The Fundamentals of Good Medical Care. Chicago: Univ. Chicago Press.
48. Lipscomb J, Kilpatrick KE, Lee KL, Pieper KS. 1995. Determining VA physician requirements through empirically based models. Health Serv. Res. 29:697-717.
49. Pathman DE. 1991. Estimating rural health professional requirements: an assessment of current methodologies. J. Rural Health 7:327-46.
50. Pathman DE, Ricketts TC 3rd, Konrad TR. 2006. How adults' access to outpatient physician services relates to the local supply of primary care physicians in the rural southeast. Health Serv. Res. 41:79-102.
51. Phillips CL. 2009. Would a nursing home physician specialty resolve the workforce crisis in long-term care? Ann. Intern. Med. 151:429-30.
52. Popp AJ, Toselli R. 1996. Workforce requirements for neurosurgery. Surg. Neurol. 46:181-85.
53. Reinhardt UE. 1975. Physicians Productivity and the Demand for Health Manpower: An Economic Analysis. Cambridge, MA: Ballinger.
54. Ricketts TC,Hart LG, Pirani M. 2000. How many rural physicians are there? J. Rural Health 16:198-207.
55. Salsberg E, Grover A. 2006. Physician workforce shortages: implications and issues for academic health centers and policymakers. Acad. Med. 81:782-87. (Pubitemid 44319113)
56. Schloss EP. 1988. Beyond GMENAC-another physician shortage from 2010 to 2030. N. Engl. J. Med. 318:920-22. (Pubitemid 18090278)
57. Schonfeld HK, Heston JF, Falk IS. 1972. Number of physicians required for primary medical care. N. Engl. J. Med. 286:571-76.
58. Shea JA, Kletke PR, Wozniak GD, Polsky D, Escarce JJ. 1999. Self-reported physician specialties and the primary care content of medical practice: a study of the AMA Physician Masterfile. American Medical Association. Med. Care 37:333-38.
59. Sheresta LB. 2006. The Changing Demographic Profile of the United States.Washington, DC: Libr. Congr., Congr. Res. Serv.
60. Sloan FA. 1977. Access to medical care and the local supply of physicians. Med. Care 15:338-46. (Pubitemid 8096245)
61. Smart D. 2009. Physician Characteristics and Distribution in the US 2009 Edition. Chicago: Am. Med. Assoc.
62. SmithK, BaughmanR. 2007. Caring for America's aging population: a profile of the direct-careworkforce. Mon. Labor Rev. 130:20-26.
63. Snyderman R, Sheldon GF, Bischoff TA. 2002. Gauging supply and demand: the challenging quest to predict the future physician workforce. Health Aff. 21:167-68.
64. Staiger DO, Auerbach DI, Buerhaus PI. 2009. Comparison of physician workforce estimates and supply projections. JAMA 302:1674-80.
65. Steinwald AB. 2008. Primary Care Professionals. Recent Supply Trends, Projections and Valuation of Services. Washington, DC: Gov. Acc. Off.
66. Verhulst L, Forrest CB,McFaddenM. 2007. To count heads or to count services? Comparing populationto- physician methods with utilization-based methods for physician workforce planning: a case study in a remote rural administrative region of British Columbia. Healthc. Policy 2:e178-92.
67. Weiner JP. 1995. Assessing Current and Future US Physician Requirements based on HMO Staffing Ratios: A Synthesis of New Sources of Data and Forecasts for the Years 2000 and 2020. Washington, DC: Bur. Health Prof., Dep. Health Hum. Serv.
68. Wennberg DE, Lucas FL, Birkmeyer JD, Bredenberg CE, Fisher ES. 1998. Variation in carotid endarterectomy mortality in the Medicare population: trial hospitals, volume, and patient characteristics. JAMA 279:1278-81. (Pubitemid 28180780)
69. Wennberg JE, Goodman DC, Neese RF, Keller RB. 1993. Finding equilibrium on US physician supply. Health Aff. 12:89-103