메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 62, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 413-424

Integrating quantitative and qualitative forecasting approaches: Organizational learning in an action research case

Author keywords

action research; forecasting; implementation

Indexed keywords

CEMENT INDUSTRY;

EID: 79951657196     PISSN: 01605682     EISSN: 14769360     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1057/jors.2010.142     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (23)

References (60)
  • 3
    • 0001166456 scopus 로고
    • Database models and managerial intuition: 50% model +50% manager
    • Blattberg RC and Hoch SJ (1990). Database models and managerial intuition: 50% model +50% manager. Manage Sci 36: 887-899.
    • (1990) Manage Sci , vol.36 , pp. 887-899
    • Blattberg, R.C.1    Hoch, S.J.2
  • 4
    • 0009644937 scopus 로고
    • Expert use of forecasts: Bootstrapping and linear models
    • Wright G and Ayton P eds., John Wiley: Chichester
    • Bunn D (1987). Expert use of forecasts: bootstrapping and linear models. In: Wright G and Ayton P (eds). Judgmental Forecasting. John Wiley: Chichester, pp 229-241.
    • (1987) Judgmental Forecasting , pp. 229-241
    • Bunn, D.1
  • 5
    • 79951646188 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting demand fluctuations due to promotional activities: A case in the fresh food industry
    • Beckman S and Sinha KK eds, . POMS: San Francisco, CA
    • Caniato F, Kalchschmidt M, Ronchi S, Verganti R and Zotteri G (2002). Forecasting demand fluctuations due to promotional activities: A case in the fresh food industry. In: Beckman S and Sinha KK (eds). POM High Tech, Proceedings of POMS Conference. POMS: San Francisco, CA, pp 1-22.
    • (2002) POM High Tech, Proceedings of POMS Conference , pp. 1-22
    • Caniato, F.1    Kalchschmidt, M.2    Ronchi, S.3    Verganti, R.4    Zotteri, G.5
  • 7
    • 45249128876 scopus 로고
    • Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography
    • Clemen RT (1989). Combining forecasts: A review and annotated bibliography. Int J Forecasting 5: 559-583.
    • (1989) Int J Forecasting , vol.5 , pp. 559-583
    • Clemen, R.T.1
  • 8
    • 38249009873 scopus 로고
    • Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities
    • Collopy F and Armstrong JS (1992). Expert opinions about extrapolation and the mystery of the overlooked discontinuities. Int J Forecasting 8: 575-582.
    • (1992) Int J Forecasting , vol.8 , pp. 575-582
    • Collopy, F.1    Armstrong, J.S.2
  • 9
    • 0036017718 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Action research for operations management
    • Coughlan P and Coghlan D (2002). Action research for operations management. Int J Oper Prod Man 22: 220-240.
    • (2002) Int J Oper Prod Man , vol.22 , pp. 220-240
    • Coughlan, P.1    Coghlan, D.2
  • 10
    • 0001349066 scopus 로고
    • Sales forecasting practices: Results from a United States survey
    • Dalrymple DJ (1987). Sales forecasting practices: Results from a United States survey. Int J Forecasting 3: 379-391.
    • (1987) Int J Forecasting , vol.3 , pp. 379-391
    • Dalrymple, D.J.1
  • 11
    • 84986791340 scopus 로고
    • Factors affecting the nature and effectiveness of subjective revision in sales forecasting: An empirical study
    • Diamantopoulos A and Mathews BP (1989). Factors affecting the nature and effectiveness of subjective revision in sales forecasting: An empirical study. Managerial Dec Econ 10: 51-59.
    • (1989) Managerial Dec Econ , vol.10 , pp. 51-59
    • Diamantopoulos, A.1    Mathews, B.P.2
  • 12
    • 0002475376 scopus 로고
    • Evaluating the role judgment plays in forecast accuracy
    • DonihueMR (1993). Evaluating the role judgment plays in forecast accuracy. J Forecasting 12: 81-92.
    • (1993) J Forecasting , vol.12 , pp. 81-92
    • Donihue, M.R.1
  • 15
    • 58949092119 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: An empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning
    • Fildes R, Goodwin P, Lawrence M and Nikolopoulos K (2009). Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: An empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning. Int J Forecasting 25: 3-23.
    • (2009) Int J Forecasting , vol.25 , pp. 3-23
    • Fildes, R.1    Goodwin, P.2    Lawrence, M.3    Nikolopoulos, K.4
  • 16
    • 0009028552 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Combining forecasts: What information do judges need to outperform the simple average?
    • Fischer I and Harvey N (1999). Combining forecasts: What information do judges need to outperform the simple average? Int J Forecasting 15: 227-246.
    • (1999) Int J Forecasting , vol.15 , pp. 227-246
    • Fischer, I.1    Harvey, N.2
  • 17
    • 0001127332 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Correct or combine? Mechanically integrating judgmental forecasts with statistical methods
    • Goodwin P (2000). Correct or combine? Mechanically integrating judgmental forecasts with statistical methods. Int J Forecasting 16: 261-275.
    • (2000) Int J Forecasting , vol.16 , pp. 261-275
    • Goodwin, P.1
  • 18
    • 22444452644 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Judgmental forecasts of time series affected by special events: Does providing a statistical forecast improve accuracy?
    • Goodwin P and Fildes R (1999). Judgmental forecasts of time series affected by special events: Does providing a statistical forecast improve accuracy? J Behav Decis Making 12: 37-53.
    • (1999) J Behav Decis Making , vol.12 , pp. 37-53
    • Goodwin, P.1    Fildes, R.2
  • 21
    • 0037354136 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting and recombining time-series components by using neural networks
    • Hansen JV and Nelson RD (2003). Forecasting and recombining time-series components by using neural networks. J Opl Res Soc 54: 307-317.
    • (2003) J Opl Res Soc , vol.54 , pp. 307-317
    • Hansen, J.V.1    Nelson, R.D.2
  • 22
    • 0000270005 scopus 로고
    • Why are judgments less consistent in less predictable task situations?
    • Harvey N (1995). Why are judgments less consistent in less predictable task situations? Org Behav Human Dec Proc 63: 247-263.
    • (1995) Org Behav Human Dec Proc , vol.63 , pp. 247-263
    • Harvey, N.1
  • 23
    • 0030094903 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Graphs versus tables: Effects of data presentation format on judgemental forecasting
    • DOI 10.1016/0169-2070(95)00634-6
    • Harvey N and Bolger F (1996). Graphs versus tables: Effects of data presentation format on judgmental forecasting. Int J Forecasting 12: 119-137. (Pubitemid 126160225)
    • (1996) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.12 , Issue.1 , pp. 119-137
    • Harvey, N.1    Bolger, F.2
  • 26
    • 0035278303 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting practices of Canadian firms: Survey results and comparisons
    • DOI 10.1016/S0925-5273(00)00063-3
    • Klassen RD and Flores BE (2001). Forecasting practices of Canadian firms: Survey results and comparisons. Int J Product Econ 70: 163-174. (Pubitemid 32264329)
    • (2001) International Journal of Production Economics , vol.70 , Issue.2 , pp. 163-174
    • Klassen, R.D.1    Flores, B.E.2
  • 27
    • 34248687522 scopus 로고
    • An examination of the accuracy of judgmental extrapolation of time series
    • Lawrence M, Edmundson RH and O'Connor MJ (1985). An examination of the accuracy of judgmental extrapolation of time series. Int J Forecasting 1: 25-35.
    • (1985) Int J Forecasting , vol.1 , pp. 25-35
    • Lawrence, M.1    Edmundson, R.H.2    O'Connor, M.J.3
  • 28
    • 33745954507 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years
    • DOI 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2006.03.007, PII S0169207006000501, Twenty Five Years of Forecasting
    • Lawrence M, Goodwin P, O'Connor M and Önkal D (2006). Judgemental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years. Int J Forecasting 22: 493-518. (Pubitemid 44057715)
    • (2006) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.22 , Issue.3 , pp. 493-518
    • Lawrence, M.1    Goodwin, P.2    O'Connor, M.3    Önkal, D.4
  • 30
    • 0002213609 scopus 로고
    • Group decision and social change
    • Maccoby EE, Newcomb TM, Hartley EL eds.,Holt, Rinehart and Winston: New York
    • Lewin K (1958). Group decision and social change. In: Maccoby EE, Newcomb TM, Hartley EL (eds). Readings in Social Psychology. Holt, Rinehart and Winston: New York, pp 197-211.
    • (1958) Readings in Social Psychology , pp. 197-211
    • Lewin, K.1
  • 31
    • 0030129954 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Judgmental forecasting with interactive forecasting support systems
    • DOI 10.1016/0167-9236(95)00009-7
    • Lim JS and O'Connor MJ (1996a). Judgmental forecasting with interactive forecasting support systems. Dec Supp Sys 16: 339-357. (Pubitemid 126375055)
    • (1996) Decision Support Systems , vol.16 , Issue.4 , pp. 339-357
    • Lim, J.S.1    O'Connor, M.2
  • 32
    • 0030098316 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Judgmental forecasting with time series and causal information
    • DOI 10.1016/0169-2070(95)00635-4
    • Lim JS and O'Connor MJ (1996b). Judgmental forecasting with time series and causal information. Int J Forecasting 12: 139-153. (Pubitemid 126160226)
    • (1996) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.12 , Issue.1 , pp. 139-153
    • Lim, J.S.1    O'Connor, M.2
  • 33
    • 0030167143 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • An experimental examination of subjective forecast combination
    • DOI 10.1016/0169-2070(95)00623-0
    • Maines LA (1996). An experimental examination of subjective forecast combination. Int J Forecasting 12: 223-233. (Pubitemid 126166360)
    • (1996) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.12 , Issue.2 , pp. 223-233
    • Maines, L.A.1
  • 35
    • 34250017368 scopus 로고
    • Managerial intervention in forecasting: An empirical investigation of forecast manipulation
    • Mathews BP and Diamantopoulos A (1986). Managerial intervention in forecasting: An empirical investigation of forecast manipulation. Int J Res Marketing 3: 3-10.
    • (1986) Int J Res Marketing , vol.3 , pp. 3-10
    • Mathews, B.P.1    Diamantopoulos, A.2
  • 36
    • 84984499068 scopus 로고
    • Judgmental revision of sales forecasts: A longitudinal extension
    • Mathews BP and Diamantopoulos A (1989). Judgmental revision of sales forecasts: A longitudinal extension. J Forecasting 8: 129-140.
    • (1989) J Forecasting , vol.8 , pp. 129-140
    • Mathews, B.P.1    Diamantopoulos, A.2
  • 37
    • 84979343969 scopus 로고
    • Judgmental revision of sales forecasts: Effectiveness of forecast selection
    • Mathews BP and Diamantopoulos A (1990). Judgmental revision of sales forecasts: Effectiveness of forecast selection. J Forecasting 9: 407-415.
    • (1990) J Forecasting , vol.9 , pp. 407-415
    • Mathews, B.P.1    Diamantopoulos, A.2
  • 38
    • 84979347099 scopus 로고
    • Judgmental revision of sales forecasts: The relative performance of judgementally revised versus non-revised forecasts
    • Mathews BP and Diamantopoulos A (1992). Judgmental revision of sales forecasts: The relative performance of judgementally revised versus non-revised forecasts. J Forecasting 11: 569-576.
    • (1992) J Forecasting , vol.11 , pp. 569-576
    • Mathews, B.P.1    Diamantopoulos, A.2
  • 39
    • 84979368127 scopus 로고
    • Towards a taxonomy of forecast error measures: A factor-comparative investigation of forecast error dimensions
    • Mathews BP and Diamantopoulos A (1994). Towards a taxonomy of forecast error measures: A factor-comparative investigation of forecast error dimensions. J Forecasting 13: 409-416.
    • (1994) J Forecasting , vol.13 , pp. 409-416
    • Mathews, B.P.1    Diamantopoulos, A.2
  • 40
    • 33748413321 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The evolution of sales forecasting management: A 20-year longitudinal study of forecasting practices
    • DOI 10.1002/for.989
    • McCarthy TM, Davis DF, Golicic SL and Mentzer JT (2006). The evolution of sales forecasting management: A 20 year longitudinal study of forecasting practices. J Forecasting 24: 303-324. (Pubitemid 44342091)
    • (2006) Journal of Forecasting , vol.25 , Issue.5 , pp. 303-324
    • Mccarthy, T.M.1    Davis, D.F.2    Golicic, S.L.3    Mentzer, J.T.4
  • 41
    • 0000663579 scopus 로고
    • The role of judgment in macroeconomic forecasting accuracy
    • McNees SK (1990). The role of judgment in macroeconomic forecasting accuracy. Int J Forecasting 6: 287-299.
    • (1990) Int J Forecasting , vol.6 , pp. 287-299
    • McNees, S.K.1
  • 42
    • 0030575674 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Combining ranked mean value forecasts
    • DOI 10.1016/0377-2217(95)00105-0
    • Mostaghimi M (1996). Combining ranked mean value forecasts. Eur J Oper Res 94: 505-516. (Pubitemid 126391958)
    • (1996) European Journal of Operational Research , vol.94 , Issue.3 , pp. 505-516
    • Mostaghimi, M.1
  • 43
    • 0001025126 scopus 로고
    • Judgmental forecasting in times of change
    • O'Connor M, Remus W and Griggs K (1993). Judgmental forecasting in times of change. Int J Forecasting 9: 163-172.
    • (1993) Int J Forecasting , vol.9 , pp. 163-172
    • O'Connor, M.1    Remus, W.2    Griggs, K.3
  • 44
    • 0042027308 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Does updating judgmental forecasts improve forecast accuracy?
    • O'Connor M, Remus W and Griggs K (2000). Does updating judgmental forecasts improve forecast accuracy? Int J Forecasting 16: 101-109.
    • (2000) Int J Forecasting , vol.16 , pp. 101-109
    • O'Connor, M.1    Remus, W.2    Griggs, K.3
  • 45
    • 58949085491 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Comments on 'Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: An empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning'
    • Önkal D (2009). Comments on 'Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: An empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning'. Int J Forecasting 25: 30-31.
    • (2009) Int J Forecasting , vol.25 , pp. 30-31
    • Önkal, D.1
  • 46
    • 84973818294 scopus 로고
    • Three dilemmas in action research: With special reference to the Tavistock experience
    • Rapoport RN (1970). Three dilemmas in action research: With special reference to the Tavistock experience. Human Relations 23: 499-513.
    • (1970) Human Relations , vol.23 , pp. 499-513
    • Rapoport, R.N.1
  • 47
    • 0036849564 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using composite moving averages to forecast sales
    • DOI 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601440
    • Robb DJ and Silver EA (2002). Using composite moving averages to forecast sales. J Opl Res Soc 53: 1281-1285. (Pubitemid 35354431)
    • (2002) Journal of the Operational Research Society , vol.53 , Issue.11 , pp. 1281-1285
    • Robb, D.J.1    Silver, E.A.2
  • 48
    • 79951592348 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Managing sub-contractors and suppliers in the construction industry
    • Ronchi S (2006). Managing sub-contractors and suppliers in the construction industry. Supply Chain Forum: An International Journal 7(1): 24-33.
    • (2006) Supply Chain Forum: An International Journal , vol.7 , Issue.1 , pp. 24-33
    • Ronchi, S.1
  • 49
    • 77952187694 scopus 로고
    • Forecasting practices in US corporations: Survey results
    • Sanders NR and Manrodt KB (1994). Forecasting practices in US corporations: Survey results. Interfaces 24(2): 92-100.
    • (1994) Interfaces , vol.24 , Issue.2 , pp. 92-100
    • Sanders, N.R.1    Manrodt, K.B.2
  • 50
    • 0011572549 scopus 로고
    • On knowing when to switch from quantitative to judgmental forecasts
    • Sanders NR and Ritzman LP (1991). On knowing when to switch from quantitative to judgmental forecasts. Int J Oper Prod Man 11(6): 28-37.
    • (1991) Int J Oper Prod Man , vol.11 , Issue.6 , pp. 28-37
    • Sanders, N.R.1    Ritzman, L.P.2
  • 51
    • 84980167503 scopus 로고
    • The need for contextual and technical knowledge in judgmental forecasting
    • Sanders NR and Ritzman LP (1992). The need for contextual and technical knowledge in judgmental forecasting. J Behav Dec Making 5: 39-52.
    • (1992) J Behav Dec Making , vol.5 , pp. 39-52
    • Sanders, N.R.1    Ritzman, L.P.2
  • 52
    • 0003052804 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Judgmental adjustment of statistical forecasts
    • Armstrong JS ed., Kluwer Academic: Norwell, MA
    • Sanders NR and Ritzman LP (2001). Judgmental adjustment of statistical forecasts. In: Armstrong JS (ed). Principles of Forecasting. Kluwer Academic: Norwell, MA, pp 405-416.
    • (2001) Principles of Forecasting , pp. 405-416
    • Sanders, N.R.1    Ritzman, L.P.2
  • 53
    • 0003199442 scopus 로고
    • Organization enquiry: Towards a new model of the action research process
    • Warwick DD ed.,Scott Foresman: Glenview, IL
    • Shani AB and PasmoreWA (1985). Organization enquiry: Towards a new model of the action research process. In: Warwick DD (ed). Contemporary Organization Development: Current Thinking and Applications. Scott Foresman: Glenview, IL, pp 438-448.
    • (1985) Contemporary Organization Development: Current Thinking and Applications , pp. 438-448
    • Shani, A.B.1    Pasmore, W.A.2
  • 54
    • 0003346604 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improving reliability of judgmental forecasts
    • Armstrong JS ed., Kluwer Academic: Norwell, MA
    • Stewart TR (2001). Improving reliability of judgmental forecasts. In: Armstrong JS (ed). Principles of Forecasting. Kluwer Academic: Norwell, MA, pp 81-106.
    • (2001) Principles of Forecasting , pp. 81-106
    • Stewart, T.R.1
  • 55
    • 0000400750 scopus 로고
    • An assessment of the scientific merits of action research
    • Susman GI and Evered RD (1978). An assessment of the scientific merits of action research. Admin Sci Quart 23: 582-603.
    • (1978) Admin Sci Quart , vol.23 , pp. 582-603
    • Susman, G.I.1    Evered, R.D.2
  • 56
  • 58
    • 84979381952 scopus 로고
    • The role of judgment in macroeconomic forecasting
    • Turner DS (1990). The role of judgment in macroeconomic forecasting. J Forecasting 9: 315-345.
    • (1990) J Forecasting , vol.9 , pp. 315-345
    • Turner, D.S.1
  • 60
    • 84979410091 scopus 로고
    • Judgmental adjustment of earnings forecasts
    • Wolfe C and Flores B (1990). Judgmental adjustment of earnings forecasts. J Forecasting 9: 389-405.
    • (1990) J Forecasting , vol.9 , pp. 389-405
    • Wolfe, C.1    Flores, B.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.