What do prediction markets predict?

Applied Economics Letters

Volumn 18, Issue 3, 2011, Pages 267-272

  Fountain, John ^a   Harrison, Glenn W ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CANTERBURY   (New Zealand)

^b GEORGIA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

COMMODITY MARKET; ECONOMIC THEORY; HOMOGENEITY; MARKET CONDITIONS; PREDICTION;

EID: 79251549519     PISSN: 13504851     EISSN: 14664291     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/13504850903559575     Document Type: Article

References (7)

1. Forsythe, R., Nelson, F., Neumann, G. R. and Wright, J. (1992) Anatomy of an experimental political stock market, American Economic Review, 82, 1142-61.
2. Forsythe, R., Rietz, T. A. and Ross, T. W. (1999) Wishes, expectations and actions: a survey on price formation in election stock markets, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 39, 83-110.
3. Gjerstad, S. (2005) Risk aversion, beliefs, and prediction market equilibrium, Unpublished Manuscript, Economic Science Laboratory, University of Arizona, Tucson.
4. Healy, P. J., Ledyard, J. O., Linardi, S. and Lowery, J. R. (2008) Prediction market alternatives for complex environments, Working Paper, Department of Economics, Ohio State University, Columbus.
5. Manski, C. F. (2006) Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets, Economics Letters, 91, 425-9.
6. Ottaviani, M. and Sørensen, P. N. (2007) Aggregation of information and beliefs in prediction markets, Working Paper, London Business School, London.
7. Wolfers, J. and Zitzewitz, E., (2005) Interpreting prediction market prices as probabilities, Unpublished Manuscript, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia.