Interpreting the predictions of prediction markets

Economics Letters

Volumn 91, Issue 3, 2006, Pages 425-429

  Manski, Charles F ^a  

^a NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Beliefs; Efficient markets hypothesis; Futures markets; Prediction markets; Subjective probabilities

Indexed keywords

EID: 33646796020     PISSN: 01651765     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2006.01.004     Document Type: Article

References (6)

1. Ali M. Probability and utility estimates for racetrack bettors. Journal of Political Economy 85 (1977) 803-815
2. Forsythe R., Nelson F., Neumann G., and Wright J. Anatomy of an experimental political stock market. American Economic Review 82 (1992) 1142-1161
3. Gjerstad S. Risk aversion, beliefs, and prediction market equilibrium (2005), Economic Science Laboratory, University of Arizona
4. Hayek F. The use of knowledge in society. American Economic Review 35 (1945) 519-530
5. Wolfers J., and Zitzewitz E. Prediction markets. Journal of Economic Perspectives 18 (2004) 107-126
6. Wolfers J. Interpreting Prediction Market Prices as Probabilities (2005), Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania