Forecast skill of synoptic conditions associated with Santa Ana winds in Southern California

Monthly Weather Review

Volumn 138, Issue 12, 2010, Pages 4528-4541

  Jones, Charles ^a   Fujioka, Francis ^b   Carvalho, Leila M V ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^b PACIFIC SOUTHWEST RESEARCH STATION   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate models; Forecasting; Synoptic scale processes; Wild fires; Wind

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE FORECASTS; COMPLEX TOPOGRAPHIES; DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY; ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS; EXTREME CASE; INTERANNUAL VARIATION; LEADTIME; LOW-FREQUENCY VARIATIONS; MESOSCALE; NON-PROBABILISTIC; PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS; REANALYSIS; SEA LEVEL PRESSURE; SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA; SURFACE WINDS; SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS; SYNOPTIC-SCALE PROCESSES; SYSTEMATIC BIAS; WILD FIRE;

FORECASTING; SEA LEVEL; WIND;

CLIMATE MODELS;

ANNUAL VARIATION; CLIMATE PREDICTION; FORECASTING METHOD; PROBABILITY; SEASONALITY; SURFACE WIND; SYNOPTIC METEOROLOGY; TOPOGRAPHY; WEATHER FORECASTING; WILDFIRE; WIND FIELD; WIND VELOCITY;

CALIFORNIA; UNITED STATES;

EID: 78651094420     PISSN: 00270644     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2010MWR3406.1     Document Type: Article

References (41)

1. Byram, G. M., 1959: Combustion of forest fuels. Forest Fire Control and Use, K. P. Davis, Ed., McGraw Hill, 61-89.
2. Castro, R., A. Pares-Sierra, and S. G. Marinone, 2003: Evolution and extension of the Santa Ana winds of February 2002 over the ocean, off California and the Baja California Peninsula. Cien. Mar., 29, 275-281.
3. Castro, R., A. Mascarenhas, A. Martinez-Diaz-De-Leon, R. Durazo, and E. Gil-Silva, 2006: Spatial influence and oceanic thermal response to Santa Ana events along the Baja California Peninsula. Atmósfera, 19, 195-211.
4. Cohen, J. D., and J. E. Deeming, 1985: The national fire-danger rating system: Basic equations. General Tech. Rep. PSW-82, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station, Berkeley, CA, 16 pp.
5. Conil, S., and A. Hall, 2006: Local modes of atmospheric variability: A case study of southern California. J. Climate, 19, 4308-4325.
6. Corbett, S. W., 1996: Asthma exacerbations during Santa Ana winds in southern California. Wilderness Environ. Med., 7, 304-311.
7. Fosberg, M. A., 1978: Weather in wildland fire management: The fire weather index. Proc. Conf. on Sierra Nevada Meteorology, Lake Tahoe, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 1-4.
8. Gallus, W. A., Jr., and J. B. Klemp, 2000: Behavior of flow over step orography. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 1153-1164.
9. Goodrick, C. L., 2002: Modification of the Fosberg fire weather index to include drought. Int. J. Wildland Fire, 11, 205-211.
10. Hu, H., and W. T. Liu, 2003: Oceanic thermal and biological responses to Santa Ana winds. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1596, doi:10.1029/2003GL017208.
11. Hughes, M., and A. Hall, 2009: Local and synoptic mechanisms causing Southern California's Santa Ana winds. Climate Dyn., 34, 847-857, doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0650-4.
12. Kanamaru, H., and M. Kanamitsu, 2007: Fifty-seven-year California Reanalysis Downscaling at 10 km (CaRD10). Part II: Comparison with North American Regional Reanalysis. J. Climate, 20, 5572-5592.
13. Kanamitsu, M., and H. Kanamaru, 2007: Fifty-seven-year California Reanalysis Downscaling at 10 km (CaRD10). Part I: System detail and validation with observations. J. Climate, 20, 5553-5571.
14. Kanamitsu, M., W. Ebisuzaki, J. Woollen, S.-K. Yang, J. J. Hnilo, M. Fiorino, and G. L. Potter, 2002: NCEP-DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 1631-1643.
15. Keeley, J. E., and C. J. Fotheringham, 2001: Historic fire regime in Southern California shrub lands. Conserv. Biol., 15, 1536- 1548.
16. Keeley, J. E., C. J. Fotheringham, and M. A. Moritz, 2004: Lessons from the October 2003 wildfires in Southern California. J. For., 102, 26-31.
17. Lea, D. H., 1969: Some climatological aspects of Santa Ana winds at Point Mugu. Pacific Missile Range, Point Mugu, CA, 125 pp.
18. Lu, R., R. P. Turco, K. Stolzenbach, S. K. Friedlander, C. Xiong, K. Schiff, L. Tiefenthaler, and G. Wang, 2003: Dry deposition of airborne trace metals on the Los Angeles Basin and adjacent coastal waters. J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4074, doi:10.1029/2001JD001446.
19. Lynn, R. J., and J. Svejkovsky, 1984: Remotely sensed sea-surface temperature variability off California during a Santa Ana clearing. J. Geophys. Res., 89, 8151-8162.
20. McCutchan, M. H., and M. J. Schroeder, 1973: Classification of meteorological patterns in Southern California by discriminant analysis. J. Appl. Meteor., 12, 571-577.
21. Mesinger, F., and Coauthors, 2006: North American Regional Reanalysis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 343-360.
22. Miller, L. N., and N. J. Schlegel, 2006: Climate change projected fire weather sensitivity: California Santa Ana wind occurrence. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L15711, doi:10.1029/2006GL025808.
23. Minnich, R. A., 1987: Fire behavior in Southern California chaparral before fire control: The Mount Wilson burns at the turn of the century. Ann. Assoc. Amer. Geogr., 77, 599-618.
24. Moritz, M. A., 2003: Spatiotemporal analysis of controls on shrubland fire regimes: Age dependency and fire hazard. Ecology, 84, 351-361.
25. Phuleria, H. C., P. M. Fine, Y. F. Zhu, and C. Sioutas, 2005: Air quality impacts of the October 2003 Southern California wildfires. J. Geophys. Res., 110, D07S20, doi:10.1029/2004JD004626.
26. Raphael, M. N., 2003: The Santa Ana winds of California. Earth Interactions, 7. [Available online at http://EarthInteractions.org.]
27. Reheis, M. C., and R. Kihl, 1995: Dust deposition in southern Nevada and California, 1984-1989-Relations to climate, source area, and source lithology. J. Geophys. Res., 100, 8893-8918.
28. Ryan, C. C., 1969: A vertical perspective of Santa Ana winds in a canyon. U.S.D.A. Forest Service Research Paper PSW-52, 12 pp.
29. Saha, S., and Coauthors, 2006: The NCEP Climate Forecast System. J. Climate, 19, 3483-3517.
30. Schroeder, M. J., and C. C. Buck, 1970: Fire weather. U.S.D.A. Forest Service, Agriculture Handbook, 229 pp.
31. Schroeder, M. J., M. Glovinsky, V. F. Henricks, F. C. Hood, and M. K. Hull, 1964: Synoptic weather types associated with critical fire weather. Rep. 0036944, Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station, Berkeley, CA, 503 pp.
32. Small, I. J., 1995: Santa Ana Winds and the fire outbreak of fall 1993. Tech. Memo., NOAA/NWS, 48 pp.
33. Sosa-Avalos, R., G. Gaxiola-Castro, R. Durazo, and B. G. Mitchell, 2005: Effect of Santa Ana winds on bio-optical properties off Baja California. Cien. Mar., 31, 339-348.
34. Svejkovsky, J., 1985: Santa Ana airflow observed from wildfire smoke patterns in satellite imagery. Mon. Wea. Rev., 113, 902-906.
35. Taylor, S. J., R. Bright, G. Carbin, P. Bothwell, and R. Naden, 2003: Using short range ensemble model data in national fire weather outlooks. Extended Abstracts, Fifth Symp. on Fire and Forest Meteorology and Second Int. Wildland Fire Ecology and Fire Management Congress, Orlando, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 2.7.
36. Trasvina, A., M. Ortiz-Figueroa, H. Herrera, M. A. Cosio, and E. Gonzalez, 2003: 'Santa Ana' winds and upwelling filaments off Northern Baja California. Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 37, 113-129.
37. Wang, W., S. Saha, H.-L. Pan, S. Nadiga, and G. White, 2005: Simulation of ENSO in the new NCEP Coupled Forecast System Model (CFS03). Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1574-1593.
38. Westerling, A. L., D. R. Cayan, T. J. Brown, B. L. Hall, and L. G. Riddle, 2003: Climate, Santa Ana winds and autumn wildfires in southern California. Eos, Trans. Amer. Geophys. Union, 85, 289-300.
39. Whiteman, C. D., 2000: Mountain Meteorology: Fundamentals and Applications. Oxford University Press, 355 pp.
40. Wilks, D. S., 2006: Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. 2nd ed. Academic Press, Inc., 648 pp.
41. Wu, J., A. M. Winer, and R. J. Delfino, 2006: Exposure assessment of particulate matter air pollution before, during, and after the 2003 Southern California wildfires. Atmos. Environ., 40, 3333-3348.