Uncertainty in the tail of the variant Creutzfeldt-jakob disease epidemic in the UK

PLoS ONE

Volumn 5, Issue 12, 2010, Pages

  Garske, Tini ^a   Ghani, Azra C ^a  

^a IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AGE DISTRIBUTION; ARTICLE; BAYES THEOREM; CONTROLLED STUDY; EPIDEMIC; ERYTHROCYTE TRANSFUSION; FOOD CONTAMINATION; FOOD POISONING; HUMAN; INCIDENCE; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; PRIMARY INFECTION; STOCHASTIC MODEL; UNITED KINGDOM; VARIANT CREUTZFELDT JAKOB DISEASE; VIRUS TRANSMISSION; BLOOD TRANSFUSION; CODON; COHORT ANALYSIS; CREUTZFELDT JAKOB DISEASE; FEMALE; GENETIC VARIABILITY; GENETICS; GENOTYPE; MALE; STATISTICAL MODEL; STATISTICS; THEORETICAL MODEL;

BAYES THEOREM; BLOOD TRANSFUSION; CODON; COHORT STUDIES; CREUTZFELDT-JAKOB SYNDROME; FEMALE; GENETIC VARIATION; GENOTYPE; GREAT BRITAIN; HUMANS; INCIDENCE; MALE; MODELS, STATISTICAL; MODELS, THEORETICAL; STOCHASTIC PROCESSES;

EID: 78650815228     PISSN: None     EISSN: 19326203     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0015626     Document Type: Article

References (35)

1. National CJD Surveillance Unit (2010) CJD statistics. url:www.cjd.ed.ac.uk/ figures.htm, accessed 2010 March 2.
2. Will RG, Ironside JW, Zeidler M, Cousens SN, Estibeiro K, et al. (1996) A new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in the UK. Lancet 347: 921-925.
3. DEFRA (2010) Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE). url:http://www. defra.gov.uk/foodfarm/farmanimal/diseases/atoz/bse/index.htm, accessed 2010 April 13.
4. HPA (2007) Health Protection Report. url: http://www.hpa.org.uk/hpr/ archives/2007/hpr0307.pdf.
5. Llewelyn CA, Hewitt PE, Knight RSG, Amar K, Cousens S, et al. (2004) Possible transmission of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease by blood transfusion. Lancet 363: 417-421.
6. Wroe SJ, Pal S, Siddique D, Hyare H, Macfarlane R, et al. (2006) Clinical presentation and pre-mortem diagnosis of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease associated with blood transfusion: a case report. Lancet 368: 2061-2067.
7. Flechsig E, Hegyi I, Enari M, Schwarz P, Collinge J, et al. (2001) Transmission of scrapie by steel-surface-bound prions. Molecular Medicine 7: 679-684.
8. Yan ZX, Stitz L, Heeg P, Pfaff E, Roth K (2004) Infectivity of prion protein bound to stainless steel wires: A model for testing decontamination procedures for transmissible spongiform encephalopathies. Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology 25: 280-283.
9. Dobra SA, Bennett PG (2006) vCJD and blood transfusion: risk assessment in the United Kingdom. Transfusion Clinique et Biologique 13: 307-311.
10. Clarke P, Will RG, Ghani AC (2007) Is there the potential for an epidemic of variant Creutzfeld-Jakob disease via blood transfusion in the UK? Journal of the Royal Society Interface 4: 675-684.
11. Garske T, Ward HJT, Clarke P, Will RG, Ghani AC (2006) Factors determining the potential for onward transmission of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease via surgical instruments. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 3: 757-766.
12. Turner ML, Ludlam CA (2009) An update on the assessment and management of the risk of transmission of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease by blood and plasma products. British Journal of Haematology 144: 14-23.
13. Clewley JP, Kelly CM, Andrews N, Vogliqi K, Mallinson G, et al. (2009) Prevalence of disease related prion protein in anonymous tonsil specimens in Britain: cross sectional opportunistic survey. British Medical Journal 338: b1442.
14. Hilton DA, Ghani AC, Conyers L, Edwards P, McCardle L, et al. (2004) Prevalence of lymphoreticular prion protein accumulation in UK tissue samples. Journal of Pathology 203: 733-739.
15. Collins SJ, Lawson VA, Masters CL (2004) Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies. The Lancet 363: 51-61.
16. Kaski D (2009) Variant CJD in an individual heterozygous for PRNP codon 129. The Lancet 374: 2128.
17. Clarke P, Ghani AC (2005) Projections of the future course of the primary vCJD epidemic in the UK: inclusion of subclinical infection and the possibility of wider genetic susceptibility. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 2: 19-31.
18. Heath C, Cooper S, Murray K, Lowman A, Henry C, et al. (2010) Validation of diagnostic criteria for variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. Annals of Neurology 67: 761-770.
19. SEAC (2008) Position Statement - Prevalence of subclinical variant Creutzfeldt- Jakob Disease infections. url: http://www.seac.gov.uk/statements/state-cjdinfections. pdf.
20. Hewitt PE, Llewelyn CA, Mackenzie J, Will RG (2006) Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease and blood transfusion: Results of the UK transfusion medicine epidemiological review study. Vox Sanguinis 91: 221-230.
21. Peden AH, Head MW, Ritchie DL, Bell JE, Ironside JW(2004) Preclinical vCJD after blood transfusion in a PRNP codon 129 heterozygous patient. Lancet 364: 527-529.
22. Chohan G, Llewelyn C, Mackenzie J, Cousens S, Kennedy A, et al. (2010) Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in a transfusion recipient: coincidence or cause? Transfusion 50: 1003-1006.
23. Gregori L, McCombie N, Palmer D, Birch P, Sowemimo-Coker S, et al. (2004) Effectiveness of leucoreduction for removal of infectivity of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies from blood. Lancet 364: 529-531.
24. Ghani AC, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Hagenaars TJ, Anderson RM (1998) Epidemiological determinants of the pattern and magnitude of the vCJD epidemic in Great Britain. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London Series BBiological Sciences 265: 2443-2452.
25. Wallis JP, Wells AW, Matthews JN, Chapman CE (2004) Long-term survival after blood transfusion: a population based study in the North of England. Transfusion 44: 1025-1032.
26. Alperovitch A, Zerr I, Pocchiari M, Mitrova E, Cuesta JdP, et al. (1999) Codon 129 prion protein genotype and sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. The Lancet 353: 1673-1674.
27. Ghani AC, Donnelly CA, Ferguson NM, Anderson RM (2003) Updated projections of future vCJD deaths in the UK. Bmc Infectious Diseases 3.
28. Ghani AC, Ferguson NM, Donnelly CA, Anderson RM (2003) Short-term projections for variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease onsets. Statistical Methods in Medical Research 12: 191-201.
29. Carlin BP, Louis TA (2000) Bayes and empirical bayes methods for data analysis. New York: Chapman & Hall.
30. McKay MD, Beckman RJ, Conover WJ (1979) A Comparison of Three Methods for Selecting Values of Input Variables in the Analysis of Output from a Computer Code. Technometrics 21: 239-245.
31. Valleron AJ, Boelle PY, Will R, Cesbron JY (2001) Estimation of epidemic size and incubation time based on age characteristics of vCJD in the United Kingdom. Science 294: 1726-1728.
32. Cousens SN (1997) Predicting the CJD epidemic in humans. Nature 385: 197.
33. Dietz K, Raddatz G, Wallis J, Muller N, Zerr I, et al. (2007) Blood transfusion and spread of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. Emerging Infectious Diseases 13: 89-96.
34. Cooper JD, Bird SM (2002) UK bovine carcass meat consumed as burgers, sausages and other meat products: by birth cohort and gender. Journal of Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention 7: 49-57.
35. St Rose S, Hunter N, Matthews L, Foster J, Chase-Topping M, et al. (2006) Comparative evidence for a link between Peyer's patch development and susceptibility to transmissible spongiform encephalopathies. Bmc Infectious Diseases 6: 5.