Is there the potential for an epidemic of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease via blood transfusion in the UK?

Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Volumn 4, Issue 15, 2007, Pages 675-684

  Clarke, Paul ^a   Will, Robert G ^b   Ghani, Azra C ^a  

^a LONDON SCHOOL OF HYGIENE AND TROPICAL MEDICINE   (United Kingdom)

^b WESTERN GENERAL HOSPITAL   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Basic reproduction number; Blood transfusion; Creutzfeldt Jakob disease; Epidemiology; Mathematical model

Indexed keywords

ARTICLE; BLOOD DONOR; BLOOD TRANSFUSION; CONTROLLED STUDY; CREUTZFELDT JAKOB DISEASE; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EPIDEMIC; GENETIC SUSCEPTIBILITY; HUMAN; INCUBATION TIME; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; SEPSIS;

EID: 34547624349     PISSN: 17425689     EISSN: 17425662     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2007.0216     Document Type: Article

References (30)

1. Asante, E. A. et al. 2002 BSE prions propagate as either variant CJD-like or sporadic CJD-like prion strains in transgenic mice expressing human prion protein. EMBO J. 21, 6358-6366. (doi:10.1093/emboj/cdf653)
2. Bishop, M. T. et al. 2006 Predicting susceptibility and incubation time of human-to-human transmission of vCJD. Lancet Neurol. 5, 393-398. (doi:10.1016/S1474-4422(06)70413-6)
3. Bruce, M. E. 1996 Strain typing studies of scrapie and BSE. In Methods in molecular medicine: prion diseases (eds H. Baker & R. M. Ridley), pp. 223-236. Totowa, NJ: Humana Press, Inc.
4. Bruce, M., Chree, A., McConnell, I., Foster, J., Pearson, G. & Fraser, H. 1994 Transmission of bovine spongiform encephalopathy and scrapie to mice: strain variation and the species barrier. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 343, 405-411. (doi:10.1098/rstb.1994.0036)
5. Bruce, M. E. et al. 1997 Transmissions to mice indicate that 'new variant' CJD is caused by the BSE agent. Nature 389, 498-591. (doi:10.1038/39057)
6. Clarke, P. & Ghani, A. C. 2005 Projections of the future course of the primary vCJD epidemic in the UK: inclusion of subclinical infection and the possibility of wider genetic susceptibility. J. R. Soc. Interface 2, 19-31. (doi:10.1098/ rsif.2004.0017)
7. Det Norske Veritas 2003 Risk assessment of exposure to vCJD infectivity in blood and blood products. In Report for the department of health. London, UK: Det Norske Veritas.
8. Diekmann, O., Heesterbeek, J. A. P. & Metz, J. A. J. 1990 On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio R0 in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations. J. Math. Biol. 28, 365-382. (doi:10.1007/BF00178324)
9. Dolan, G. 2006 Clinical implications of emerging pathogens in haemophilia: the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease experience. Haemophilia 12(Suppl. 1), 16-20. (doi:10. 1111/j.1365-2516.2006. 01196.x)
10. Farrugia, A., Ironside, J. W. & Giangrande, P. 2005 Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease transmission by plasma products: assessing and communicating risk in an era of scientific uncertainty. Vox Sanguinis 89, 186-192. (doi:10. 1111/j.1423-0410.2005.00702.x)
11. Garske, T., Ward, H. J. T., Clarke, P., Will, R. G. & Ghani, A. C. 2006 Factors determining the potential for onward transmission of vCJD via surgical instruments. J. R. Soc. Interface 3, 757-766. (doi:10.1098/rsif.2006.0142)
12. Ghani, A. C., Ferguson, N. M., Donnelly, C. A., Hagenaars, T. J. & Anderson, R. M. 1998 Epidemiological determinants of the pattern and magnitude of the vCJD epidemic in Great Britain. Proc. R. Soc. B 265, 2443-2452. (doi:10.1098/rspb. 1998.0596)
13. Ghani, A. C., Ferguson, N. M., Donnelly, C. A. & Anderson, R. M. 2000 Predicted vCJD mortality in Great Britain. Nature 406, 583-584. (doi:10.1038/35020688)
14. Gregori, L., McCombie, N., Palmer, D., Birch, P., Sowemimo-Coker, S. O., Giulivi, A. & Rohwer, R. G. 2004 Effectiveness of leucoreduction for removal of infectivity of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies from blood. Lancet 364, 529-531. (doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(04)16812-8)
15. Hewitt, P. E., Llewelyn, C. A., Mackenzie, J. & Will, R. G. 2006 Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease and blood transfusion: results of the UK transfusion medicine epidemiological review study. Vox Sanguinis 91, 221-230. (doi:10.1111/ j.1423-0410.2006.00833.x)
16. Hill, A. F. & Collinge, J. 2003 Subclinical prion infection in humans and animals. Br. Med. Bull. 66, 161-170. (doi:10. 1093/bmb/66.1.161)
17. Hill, A. F., Desbruslais, M., Joiner, S., Sidle, K. C. L., Gowland, I., Collinge, J., Doey, L. J. & Lantos, P. 1997 The same prion strain causes vCJD and BSE. Nature 389, 448-450. (doi:10.1038/38925)
18. Hilton, D. A. 2006 Pathogenesis and prevalence of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. J. Pathol. 208, 134-141. (doi:10.1002/path.1880)
19. Hilton, D. A., Ghani, A. C., Conyers, L., Edwards, P., McCardle, L., Ritchie, D., Penney, M., Hegazy, D. & Ironside, J. W. 2004 Prevalence of lymphoreticular prion protein accumulation in UK tissue samples. J. Pathol. 203, 733-739. (doi:10.1002/path.1580)
20. HPA 2006 CDR Weekly. New case of transfusion-associated variant-CJD Health Protection Agency, London, UK. http://www.hpa.org.uk/cdr/ archives/archive06/News/news0606.htm.
21. Ironside, J. W. 2006 Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease: risk of transmission by blood transfusion and blood therapies. Haemophilia 12(Suppl. 1), 8-15. (doi:10.1111/j.1365-2516. 2006.01195.x)
22. Ironside, J. W., Bishop, M. T., Connolly, K., Hegazy, D., Lowrie, S., Le Grice, M., Ritchie, D. L., McCardle, L. & Hilton, D. A. 2006 Variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease: a prion protein genotype analysis of positive appendix tissue samples from a retrospective prevalence study. Br. Med. J. 332, 1186-1188. (doi:10.1136/bmj.38804. 511644.55)
23. Kimberlin, R. H. & Walker, C. A. 1978 Pathogenesis of mouse scrapie: effect of route of inoculation on infectivity titres and dose-response curves. J. Comp. Pathol. 88, 39-47. (doi:10.1016/0021-9975(78)90059-2)
24. Llewelyn, C. A., Hewitt, P. E., Knight, R. S., Amar, K., Cousens, S., Mackenzie, J. & Will, R. G. 2004 Possible transmission of variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease by blood transfusion. Lancet 363, 417-421. (doi:10.1016/ S0140-6736(04)15486-X)
25. NCJDSU 2007 CJD statistics. Edinburgh, UK: National CJD Surveillance Unit. (http://www.cjd.ed.ac.uk/figures.htm)
26. Peden, A., Head, M. W., Ritchie, D. L., Bell, J. E. & Ironside, J. W. 2004 Preclinical vCJD after blood transfusion in a PRNP codon 129 heterozygous patient. Lancet 364, 527-528. (doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(04)16811-6)
27. Scott, M. R., Will, R., Ironside, J., Nguyen, H. O. B., Tremblay, P., DeArmond, S. J. & Prusiner, S. B. 1999 Compelling transgenetic evidence for transmission of bovine spongiform encephalopathy prions to humans. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 96, 15137-15142. (doi:10. 1073/pnas.96.26.15137)
28. Stein, M. 1987 Large sample properties of simulations using Latin Hypercube Sampling. Technometrics 29, 143-151. (doi:10.2307/1269769)
29. Wallis, J. P., Wells, A. W., Matthews, J. N. & Chapman, C. E. 2004 Long-term survival after blood transfusion: a population based study in the North of England. Transfusion 44, 1025-1032. (doi:10.1111/j.1537- 2995.2004.03400.x)
30. Wells, A. W., Mounter, P. J., Chapman, C. E., Stainsby, D. & Wallis, J. P. 2002 Where does blood go? Prospective observational study of red cell transfusion in North England. Br. Med. J. 325, 803. (doi:10.1136/bmj.325. 7368.803)