Future climate impact on spruce bark beetle life cycle in relation to uncertainties in regional climate model data ensembles

Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography

Volumn 63, Issue 1, 2011, Pages 158-173

  Jönsson, Anna Maria ^a   Bärring, Lars ^b  

^a LUND UNIVERSITY   (Sweden)

^b SWEDISH METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL INSTITUTE   (Sweden)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BEETLE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE MODELING; COMPUTER SIMULATION; CONFIDENCE INTERVAL; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; LIFE CYCLE; REGIONAL CLIMATE; SWARMING; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

SCANDINAVIA;

IPS TYPOGRAPHUS; PICEA; SCOLYTINAE;

EID: 78650113115     PISSN: 02806495     EISSN: 16000870     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00479.x     Document Type: Article

References (64)

1. Ahti, T., Hämet-Ahti, L. and Jalas, J., 1968. Vegetation zones and their sections in northwestern Europe. Annales Botanici Fennici 5, 169-211.
2. Anderbrant, O., 1990. Gallery construction and oviposition of the bark beetle Ips typographus (Coleoptera, Scolytidae) at different breeding densities. Ecol. Entomol. 15, 1-8.
3. Annila, E., 1969. Influence of temperature upon the development and voltinism of Ips typographus L. (Coleoptera, Scolytiade). Annals Zoologici Fenniciici 6, 161-208.
4. Araujo, M. B. and Rahbek, C., 2006. How does climate change affect biodiversity? Science 313, 1396-1397.
5. Ayres, M. P. and Lombardero, M. J., 2000. Assessing the consequences of global change for forest disturbance from herbivores and pathogens. Sci. Total Environ. 262, 263-286.
6. Bleck, R., Rooth, C., Hu, D. M. and Smith, L. T., 1992. Salinity-driven thermocline transients in a wind-forced and thermohaline-forced isopycnic coordinate model of the North-Atlantic. J. Phys. Oceanogr. 22, 1486-1505.
7. Böhm, U., Kücken, M., Ahrens, W., Block, A., Hauffe, D. and co-authors, 2006. CLM - the climate version of LM: brief description and long-term applications. COSMO Newsletter, 6.
8. Buonomo, E., Jones, R., Huntingford, C. and Hannaford, J., 2007. On the robustness of changes in extreme precipitation over Europe from two high resolution climate change simulations. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 133, 65-81.
9. Christensen, J. H., Hewitson B., Busuioc, A., Chen, A., Gao, X. and co-authors, 2007. Regional climate projections. The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 847-940.
10. Christensen, J. H., Christensen, O. B., Lopez, P., Van Meijgaard, E. and Botzet, M., 1996. The HIRHAM4 regional atmospheric climate model. DMI Scientific Report 96-4.
11. Christensen, J. H., Rummukainen, M. and Lenderink, G. (Editors), 2009. Formulation of very-high-resolution regional climate model ensembles for Europe. Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK 160 pp.
12. Christiansen, E. and Bakke, A., 1988. The Spruce Bark Beetle of Eurasia. In: Dynamics of forest insect populations (ed. A. A. Berryman ), Plenum Publishing Corporation, New York, 479-503.
13. Collins, W. D., Bitz, C. M. Blackmon, M. L., Bonan, G. B., Bretheron, C. S. and co-authors, 2006. The community climate system model version 3 (CCSM3), J. Climate 19, 2122-2143.
14. Collins, M., Booth, B. B., Bhaskaran, B., Harris, G. R., Murphy, J. M. and co-authors, 2010. Climate model errors, feedbacks, and forcings: a comparison of perturbed physics and multi-model ensembles. Clim. Dyn., doi:.
15. Déqué, M., Dreveton, C., Braun, A. and Cariolle, D., 1994. The Arpege/ifs atmosphere model - a contribution to the French community climate modelling. Clim. Dyn. 10, 249-266.
16. Déqué, M., Rowell, D. P., Luthi, D., Giorgi, F., Christensen, J. H. and co-authors, 2007. An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projections. Clim. Change 81, 53-70.
17. Dolezal, P. and Sehnal, F., 2007. Effects of photoperiod and temperature on the development and diapause of the bark beetle Ips typographus. J. Appl. Entomol. 131, 165-173.
18. Faccoli, M., 2002. Winter mortality in sub-corticolous populations of Ips typographus (Coleoptera, Scolytidae) and its parasitoids in the south-eastern Alps. J. Pest Sci. 75, 62-68.
19. Faccoli, M., 2009. Effect of weather on Ips typographus (Coleoptera Curculionidae) phenology, voltinism, and associated spruce mortality in the southeastern Alps. Environ. Entomol. 38, 307-316.
20. Fettig, C. J., Klepzig, K. D., Billings, R. F., Munson, A. S., Nebeker, T. E. and co-authors, 2007. The effectiveness of vegetation management practices for prevention and control of bark beetle infestations in coniferous forests of the western and southern United States. Forest Ecol. Manage. 238, 24-53.
21. Fischer, E. M. and Schär, C. 2010. Consistent geographical patterns of changes in high-impact European heatwaves. Nature Geosci., doi:.
22. Franklin, J. F., Spies, T. A., Van Pelt, R., Carey, A. B., Thornburgh, D. A. and co-authors, 2002. Disturbances and structural development of natural forest ecosystems with silvicultural implications, using Douglas-fir forests as an example. Forest Ecol. Manage. 155, 399-423.
23. Gordon, C., Cooper, C., Senior, C. A., Banks, H., Gregory, J. M. and co-authors, 2000. The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Clim. Dyn. 16, 147-168.
24. Gray, D. R., 2004. The gypsy moth life stage model: landscape-wide estimates of gypsy moth establishment using a multi-generational phenology model. Ecol. Modell. 176, 155-171.
25. Hanewinkel, M., Breidenbach, J., Neeff, T. and Kublin, E., 2008. Seventy-seven years of natural disturbances in a mountain forest area - the influence of storm, snow, and insect damage analysed with a long-term time series. Can. J. Forest Res. 38, 2249-2261.
26. Haugen, J. E. and Haakenstad, H., 2006. Validation of HIRHAM version 2 with 50 km and 25 km resolution. RegClim General Technical Report No. 9, 159-173.
27. Haylock, M. R., Hofstra, N., Tank, A., Klok, E. J., Jones, P. D. and co-authors, 2008. A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950-2006. J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos. 113, D20119, doi:.
28. Jacob, D., 2001. A note to the simulation of the annual and inter-annual variability of the water budget over the Baltic Sea drainage basin. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 77, 61-73.
29. Jacob, D., Andrae, U., Elgered, G., Fortelius, C., Graham, L. P. and co-authors, 2001. A Comprehensive Model Intercomparison Study Investigating the Water Budget during the BALTEX-PIDCAP Period. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 77, 19-43.
30. Jönsson, A. M., Appelberg, G., Harding, S. and Bärring, L., 2009. Spatio-temporal impact of climate change on the activity and voltinism of the spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus, Global Change Biol. 15, 486-499.
31. Jönsson, A. M., Harding, S., Bärring, L. and Ravn, H. P., 2007. Impact of climate change on the population dynamics of Ips typographus in southern Sweden. Agric. Forest Meteorol. 146, 70-81.
32. Jönsson, A. M., Harding, S., Krokene, P., Lange, H., Lindelöw, and co-authors, 2010. Modelling the potential impact of global warming on Ips typographus voltinism and reproductive diapause. Scand. J. For. Res. 25, 273-274.
33. Jungclaus, J. H., Keenlyside, N., Botzet, M., Haak, H., Luo, J. J., and co-authors, 2006. Ocean circulation and tropical variability in the coupled model ECHAM5/MPI-OM. J. Climate 19, 3952-3972.
34. Kjellström, E., Bärring, L., Gollvik, S., Hansson, U., Jones, C. and co-authors, 2005. A 140-year simulation of European climate with the new version of the Rossby Centre regional atmospheric climate model (RCA3). Reports Meteorology and Climatology, No 108, Dec 2005. Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SE-60176 Norrköping, Sweden, 54 pp.
35. Kjellström, E., Bärring, L., Jacob, D., Jones, R., Lenderink, G. and Schär, C., 2007. Modelling daily temperature extremes: recent climate and future changes over Europe. Clim. Change 81, 249-265.
36. Kjellström, E., Nikulin, G., Hansson, U., Strandberg, G. and Ullerstig, A., 2011. 21st century changes in the European climate: uncertainties derived from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations. Tellus 63A, this issue.
37. Lange, H., Økland, B. and Krokene, P. 2006. Thresholds in the life cycle of the spruce bark beetle under climate change. Interjournal Complex Syst. 1648, 1-10.
38. Nakićenović, N. and Swart, R. (Editors), 2000. Emission Scenarios, a Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge UK, 612 pp.
39. Nikulin, G., Kjellström, E., Hansson, U., Strandberg, G. and Ullerstig, A., 2011. Evaluation and future future projections of temperature, precipitation and wind extremes over Europe in an ensemble of regional climate simulations. Tellus 63A, this issue.
40. Nilsson, C., 2008. Windstorms in Sweden - Variations and Impacts Doctoral Thesis, Lund University, Lund Sweden, 169 pp.
41. Nilsson, C., Stjernquist, I., Barring, L., Schlyter, P., Jonsson, A. M. and Samuelsson, H., 2004. Recorded storm damage in Swedish forests 1901-2000. Forest Ecol. Manage. 199, 165-173.
42. Økland, B. and Berryman, A., 2004. Resource dynamic plays a key role in regional fluctuations of the spruce bark beetles Ips typographus. Agric. Forest Entomol. 6, 141-146.
43. Økland, B. and Bjørnstad, O. N., 2003. Synchrony and geographical variation of the spruce bark beetle (Ips typographus) during a non-epidemic period. Populat. Ecol. 45, 213-219.
44. Økland, B. and Bjørnstad, O. N., 2006. A resource-depletion model of forest insect outbreaks. Ecology 87, 283-290.
45. Olesen, J. E., Carter, T. R., Diaz-Ambrona, C. H., Fronzek, S., Heidmann, T. and co-authors, 2007. Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models. Clim. Change 81, 123-143.
46. Oliver, C. D. and Larson, B. C., 1996. Forest Stand Dynamics. Wiley, New York, 544 pp.
47. Parmesan, C., 2006. Ecological and evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Ann. Rev. Ecol. Evolut. Systemat. 37, 637-669.
48. Roeckner, E., Brokopf, R., Esch, M., Giorgetta, M., Hagemann, S. and co-authors, 2006. Sensitivity of simulated climate to horizontal and vertical resolution in the ECHAM5 atmosphere model. J. Climate 19, 3771-3791.
49. Rosenzweig, C., Casassa, G., Karoly, D. J., Imeson, A., Liu, C. and co-authors, 2007. Assessment of observed changes and responses in natural and managed systems. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 79-131.
50. Rouault, G., Candau, J. N., Lieutier, F., Nageleisen, L. M., Martin, J. C. and co-authors, 2006. Effects of drought and heat on forest insect populations in relation to the 2003 drought in Western Europe. Ann. Forest Sci. 63, 613-624.
51. Royer, J. F., Cariolle, D., Chauvin, F., Deque, M., Douville, H. and co-authors, 2002. Simulation of climate changes during the 21st century including stratospheric ozone. Comptes Rendus Geoscience 334, 147-154.
52. Rummukainen, M., 2010. State-of-the-art with regional climate models. WIREs Clim. Change 1, 82-96.
53. Samuelsson, P., Jones, C., Willén, U., Gollvik, S., Hansson, U. and co-authors, 2011. The Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model RCA3: model description and performance. Tellus 63A, this issue.
54. Schelhaas, M. J., Nabuurs, G. J. and Schuck, A., 2003. Natural disturbances in the European forests in the 19th and 20th centuries. Global Change Biol. 9, 1620-1633.
55. Schroeder, L. M., 2003. Tree mortality by the bark beetle Ips typographus (L.) in storm-disturbed stands. Integrated Pest Manage. Rev. 6, 169-175.
56. Seidl, R., Schelhaas, M. J., Lindner, M. and Lexer, M. J., 2009. Modelling bark beetle disturbances in a large scale forest scenario model to assess climate change impacts and evaluate adaptive management strategies. Regional Environ. Change 9, 101-119.
57. Uppala, S. M., Kållberg, P. W., Simmons, A. J., Andrae, U., Bechtold, V. D. and co-authors, 2005. The ERA-40 re-analysis. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131, 2961-3012.
58. Van Asch, M., Tienderen, P. H., Holleman, L. J. M. and Visser, M. E., 2007. Predicting adaptation of phenology in response to climate change, an insect herbivore example. Global Change Biol. 13, 1596-1604.
59. Van Der Linden, P. and Mitchell, J. F. B. (eds.), 2009, ENSEMBLES: Climate Change and its Impacts: Summary of the Research and Results from the ENSEMBLES Project. Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK, 160 pp.
60. Van Meijgaard, E., Van Ulft, L. H., Van De Berg, W. J., Bosveld, F. C., Van Den Hurk, B. J. J. M. and co-authors, 2008. The KNMI Regional Atmospheric Climate Model RACMO, Version 2.1. Available at: (Accessed 1 February 2010)
61. Walther, G. R., Post, E., Convey, P., Menzel, A., Parmesan, C. and co-authors, 2002. Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416, 389-395.
62. Wermelinger, B. and Seifert, M., 1998. Analysis of the temperature dependent development of the spruce bark beetle Ips typographus (L) (Col, Scolytidae). J. Appl. Entomol. 122, 185-191.
63. Wermelinger, B. and Seifert, M., 1999. Temperature-dependent reproduction of the spruce bark beetle Ips typographus, and analysis of the potential population growth. Ecol. Entomol. 24, 103-110.
64. Wermelinger, B., 2004. Ecology and management of the spruce bark beetle Ips typographus- a review of recent research. Forest Ecol. Manage. 202, 67-82.