Disrupting seasonality to control disease outbreaks: The case of koi herpes virus

Journal of Theoretical Biology

Volumn 271, Issue 1, 2011, Pages 159-165

  Omori, Ryosuke ^a,b   Adams, Ben ^c  

^a KYUSHU UNIVERSITY   (Japan)

^b UNIVERSITY OF EDINBURGH   (United Kingdom)

^c University of Bath   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Aquaculture; Delay equation; KHV; Koi herpes virus; Seasonality

Indexed keywords

AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION; DISEASE CONTROL; DISEASE TREATMENT; EPIDEMIOLOGY; IMMUNITY; MORTALITY; NUMERICAL MODEL; SEASONALITY; VIRULENCE; WATER TEMPERATURE;

ARTICLE; AUTUMN; CONTROLLED STUDY; DISEASE COURSE; EPIDEMIC; FISH; HERPES VIRUS; HERPES VIRUS INFECTION; NONHUMAN; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SEASONAL VARIATION; SUMMER; TEMPERATURE DEPENDENCE; WATER MANAGEMENT; WATER TEMPERATURE; WINTER; ALGORITHM; ANIMAL; AQUACULTURE; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; CARP; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; FISH DISEASES; HERPESVIRIDAE INFECTIONS; PROCEDURES; SEASON; TEMPERATURE; TRANSMISSION; VETERINARY; VIROLOGY;

COPROSMA KAUENSIS; CYPRINIDAE; CYPRINUS CARPIO; HERPESVIRIDAE;

WATER;

ALGORITHMS; ANIMALS; AQUACULTURE; CARPS; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; FISH DISEASES; HERPESVIRIDAE INFECTIONS; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; SEASONS; TEMPERATURE; WATER;

EID: 78650081285     PISSN: 00225193     EISSN: 10958541     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2010.12.004     Document Type: Article

References (27)

1. Adams B., Boots M. The influence of immune cross-reaction on phase structure in resonant solutions of a multi-strain seasonal SIR model. J. Theoret. Biol. 2007, 248:202-211.
2. Altizer S., Dobson A., Hosseini P., Hudson P., Pascual M., Rohani P. Seasonality and the dynamics of infectious diseases. Ecol. Lett. 2006, 9:467-484.
3. Aron J.L., Schwartz I.B. Seasonality and period-doubling bifurcations in an epidemic model. J. Theoret. Biol. 1984, 110:665-679.
4. Dietz K. The incidence of infectious diseases under the influence of seasonal fluctuations. Lect. Notes Biomath. 1976, 11:1-15.
5. Gilad O., Yun S., Andree K.B., Adkinson A., Zlotkin A., Bercovierm H., Elderm A., Hedrick R.P. Molecular comparison of isolates of an emerging fish pathogen, koi herpes virus, and the effect of water temperature on mortality of experimentally infected koi. J. Gen. Virol. 2003, 84:2661-2667.
6. Grassly, N.C., Fraser, C., 2006. Seasonal infectious disease epidemiology. Proc. R. Soc. London B 273, 2541-2550.
7. Greenman J., Kamo M., Boots M. External forcing of ecological and epidemiological systems: a resonance approach. Physica D 2004, 190:136-151.
8. Hedrick, R.P., Gilad, O., Yun, S., Spangenberg, J.V., Marty, G.D., Nordhausen, R.W., Kebus, M.J., Bercovier, H., Eldar, A., 2000. A herpesvirus associated with mass mortality of juvenile and adult koi, a strain of common carp. J. Aquatic Anim. Health 12, 44-57.
9. Hethcote H.W., Yorke J.A. Gonorrhea Transmission Dynamics and Control 1980, Springer, New York.
10. Iida T., Sano M. Koi herpesvirus disease. Uirusu 2005, 55:145-151.
11. Keeling M.J., Rohani P., Grenfell B.T. Seasonally forced disease dynamics explored as switching between attractors. Physica D 2001, 148:317-335.
12. London W.P., Yorke J.A. Recurrent outbreaks of measles, chickenpox and mumps. I. Seasonal variation in contact rates. Am. J. Epidemiol. 1973, 98:453-468.
13. Miyakazi T., Okamoto H., Kageyama T., Kobayashi T. Viremia-associated Ana-Aqki-Byo, a new viral disease in color carp Cyprinus carpio in Japan. Dis. Aquat. Organ. 2000, 39(3):188-192.
14. Nisbet R.M., Gurney W.S. The systematic formulation of population models for insects with dynamically varying instar duration. Theor. Popul. Biol. 1983, 23:114-135.
15. Nishiura, H., Chowell, G., 2009. The effective reproduction number as a prelude to statistical estimation of time-dependent epidemic trends. In: Chowell, G., Hyman, J.M., Bettencourt, L.M.A., Castillo-Chavez, C., (Eds.) Mathematical and Statistical Estimation Approaches in Epidemiology, Springer, New York, pp. 103-121.
16. Perelberg, A., Smirnov, M., Hutoran, M., Diamant, A., Bejerano, Y., Kotler, M., 2003. Epidemiological description of a new viral disease afflicting cultured Cyprinus Carprio in Israel. Isr. J. Aquacult. Bamidgeh, 55, 5-12.
17. Oh M.J., Jung S.J., Choi T.J., Kim H.R., Rajendran K.V., Kim Y.J., Park M.A., Chun S.K. A viral disease occurring in cultured carp Cyprinus carpio in Korea. Fish Pathol. 2001, 36(3):147-151.
18. Peteri, A., 2005. Cultured aquatic species information programme. FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department (online). Rome. Updated 12 July 2005 (accessed 22 July 2010) http://www.fao.org/fishery/culturedspecies/Cyprinus_carpio/en.
19. Pikarsky E., Ronen A., Abramowitz J., Levavi-Sivan B., Hutoran M., Shapira Y., Steinitz M., Perelberg A., Soffer D., Kotler M. The pathogenesis of acute viral diseases in fish induced by the carp interstitial nephritis and gill necrosis virus. J. Virol. 2004, 78:9544-9551.
20. Ronen A., Perelberg A., Abramowitz J., Hutoran M., Tinman S., Bejerano I., Steinitz M., Kotler M. Efficient vaccine against the virus causing a lethal disease in cultured Cyprinus carpio. Vaccine 2003, 21:4677-4684.
21. Schwartz I.B. Multiple stable recurrent outbreaks and predictability in seasonality forced nonlinear epidemics models. J. Math. Biol. 1985, 21:47-361.
22. Schwartz, I., Smith, H., 1983. Infinite subharmonics bifurcation in an SEIR epidemic model. J. Math. Biol. 18, 233-253.
23. St-Hilaire S., Beevers N., Joiner C., Hedrick R.P., Way K. Antibody response of two populations of common carp, Cyprinus carpio L., exposed to koi herpesvirus. J. Fish Dis. 2009, 32:311-320.
24. Taylor N.G.H., Dixon P.F., Jeffery K.R., Peeler E.J., Denham K.L., Way K. Koi herpesvirus: distribution and prospects for control in England and Wales. J. Fish Dis. 2009, 33:221-230.
25. Walster C. Clinical observations of severe mortalities in koi carp, Cyprinus carpio, with gill disease. Fish Vet. J. 1999, 3:54-58.
26. Waltzek T.B., Kelley G.O., Stone D.M., Way K., Hanson L., Fukuda H., Hirono I., Aoki T., Davison A.J., Hedrick R.P. Koi herpesvirus represents a third cyprinid herpesvirus (CyHV-3) in the family Herpesviridae. J. Gen. Virol. 2005, 86:659-1667.
27. Yuasa K., Ito T., Sano M. Effect of water temperature on mortality and virus shedding in carp experimentally infected caps with koi herpes virus. Fish Pathol. 2008, 43(2):83-85.