How precisely can we anticipate seismic intensities? A study of uncertainty of anticipated seismic intensities for the Earthquake Early Warning method in Japan

Earth, Planets and Space

Volumn 62, Issue 8, 2010, Pages 611-620

  Hoshiba, Mitsuyuki ^a   Ohtake, Kazuo ^a   Iwakiri, Kazuhiro ^a   Aketagawa, Tamotsu ^b,e   Nakamura, Hiromitsu ^c   Yamamoto, Shunroku ^d  

^a METEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Japan)

^b JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY   (Japan)

^c NATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR EARTH SCIENCE AND DISASTER PREVENTION   (Japan)

^d RAILWAY TECHNICAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE   (Japan)

^e Hot Spring Research Institute   (Japan)

Author keywords

Earthquake early warning; Prediction of grouna motion; Seismic intensity; Uncertainty

Indexed keywords

EARLY WARNING SYSTEM; EARTHQUAKE HYPOCENTER; EARTHQUAKE INTENSITY; EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE; GROUND MOTION; SEISMIC SOURCE; SEISMICITY; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

JAPAN;

EID: 78650049355     PISSN: 13438832     EISSN: 18805981     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5047/eps.2010.07.013     Document Type: Article

References (28)

1. Alcik, H., O. Ozel, N. Apaydin, and M. Erdik, A study on warning algorithms for Istanbul earthquake early warning system, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L00B05, doi:10.1029/2008GL036659,2009.
2. Allen, R. M., H. Brown, M. Hellweg, O. Khainovski, P. Lombard, and D. Neuhauser, Real-time earthquake detection and hazard assessment by ElarmS across California, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L00B08, doi: 10.1029/2008GL036766,2009.
3. Atkinson, G. M., Single-station sigma. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 96, 446-455, 2006.
4. Bragato, P. L., Limits for the improvement of ground-motion relations in Europe and the Middle East by accounting for site effects, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 98,2061-2065, 2008.
5. Douglas, J. and P. M. Smit, How accurate can strong ground motion attenuation relations be?, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 91, 1917-1923, 2001.
6. Espinosa Aranda, J. M., A. Jimenez, G. Ibarrola, F. Alcantar, A. Aguilar, M. Inostroza, and S. Maldonado, Mexico City seismic alert system, Seismol. Res. Lett., 66, 42-52, 1995.
7. Horiuchi, S., H. Negishi, K. Abe, A. Kaminuma, and Y. Fujinawa, An automatic processing system for broadcasting earthquake alarms, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 95, 708-718, 2005. (Pubitemid 40801277)
8. Hoshiba, M., Fluctuation of wave amplitude even when assuming convolution of source, path and site factors - Effect of rupture directivity -, Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., 137, 45-65, 2003. (Pubitemid 36761956)
9. Hoshiba, M., O. Kamigaichi, M. Saito, S. Tsukada, and N. Hamada, Earth-quake early warning starts nationwide in Japan, Eos Trans. AGU, 89, 73-74, 2008.
10. Hsiao, N.-C., Y.-M. Wu, T.-C. Shin, L. Zhao, and T.-L. Teng, Development of earthquake early warning system in Taiwan, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L00B02, doi:10.1029/2008GL036596, 2009.
11. Ikeura, T. and S. Noda, Variation of strong motion response spectra observed at the same site - analysis on data from pair events of the same magnitude and the same hypocentral distances -, J. Jpn. Assoc. Earthq. Eng., 5, 12-30, 2005 (in Japanese).
12. Japan Meteorological Agency, Seismic Intensity, pp 238, Gyosei, Tokyo, 1996 (in Japanese).
13. Japan Meteorological Agency, Report of the Mid Niigata prefecture Earthquake in 2004, Tech. Rep. JMA, 127, 1-185,2005 (in Japanese).
14. Japan Meteorological Agency, The Seismological and Volocanological Bulletin of Japan for January 2009, Japan Meteorological Agency, 2009.
15. Kamigaichi, O., JMA earthquake early warning, J. Jpn. Assoc. Earthq. Eng., 4, 134-137, 2004.
16. Kamigaichi, O., M. Saito, K. Doi, T. Matsumori, S. Tsukada, K. Takeda, T. Shimoyama, K. Nakamura, M. Kiyomoto, and Y. Watanabe, Earthquake Early Warning in Japan - Warning the general public and future prospects -, Seismol. Res. Lett., 80, 717-726, 2009.
17. Matsuoka, M. and S. Midorikawa, The digital national land information and seismic microzoning, Proceeding of the 22nd Symposium of Earthquake Ground Motion, AIJ, 23-34,1994 (in Japanese).
18. Midorikawa, S., K. Fujimoto, and I. Muramatsu, Correlation of new J.M.A. instrumental seismic intensity with former J.M.A. seismic intensity and ground motion parameters, J. Inst. Soc. Safety Sci., 51-56, 1999 (in Japanese).
19. Morikawa, N., T. Kanno, A. Narita, H. Fujiwara, T. Okumura, Y. Fukushima, and A. Guerpinar, Strong motion uncertainty determined from observed records by dense network in Japan, J. Seismol., 12, 529-546, 2008.
20. Nakamura, H., S. Horiuchi, C. Wu, S. Yamamoto, and P. A. Rydelek, Evaluation of the real-time earthquake information system in Japan, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, doi:10.1029/2008GL036470,2009.
21. Odaka, T., K. Ashiya, S. Tsukada, S. Sato, K. Ohtake, and D. Nozaka, A new method of quickly estimating epicentral distance and magnitude from a single seismic record, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am., 93, 526-532, 2003. (Pubitemid 36624239)
22. Si, H. and S. Midorikawa, Attenuation relationships of peak ground acceleration and velocity considering effects of fault type and site condition, J. Struct. Constr. Eng., AlJ, 523,63-70, 1999 (in Japanese).
23. Strasser, F. O., N. A. Abrahamson, and J. J. Bommer, Sigma: Issues, insights, and challenges, Seismol. Res. Lett., 80,40-56, 2009.
24. Tsukada, S., S. Odaka, K. Ashiya, K. Ohtake, and D. Nozaka, Analysis of the envelope waveform of the initial part of P waves and its application to quickly estimating the epicentral distance and magnitude, Zisin 2, 56, 351-361, 2004 (in Japanese).
25. Wessel, P. and W. H. F. Smith, New version of the generic mapping tool released, Eos Trans. AGU, 76, 329, 1995.
26. Yamamoto, S., S. Horiuchi, H. Nakamura, and C. Wu, Effectiveness of seismic intensity magnitude for earthquake early warning, BUTSURITANSA, 60, 407-417,2007 (in Japanese).
27. Yamamoto, S., P. Rydelek, S. Horiuchi, C. Wu, and H. Nakamura, On the estimation of seismic intensity in earthquake early warning systems, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L07302, doi10.1029/2007GL033034,2008.
28. Zoilo, A., G. Iannaccone, M. Lancieri, L. Cantore, V. Convertito, A. Emolo, G. Festa, F. Gallovič, M. Vassallo, C. Martino, C. Satriano, and P. Gasparini, Earthquake early warning system in southern Italy: Methodologies and performance evaluation, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L00B07, doi:10.1029/2008GL036689, 2009.