Tracking and verification of East Atlantic tropical cyclone genesis in the NCEP global ensemble: Case studies during the NASA African Monsoon multidisciplinary analyses

Weather and Forecasting

Volumn 25, Issue 5, 2010, Pages 1397-1411

  Snyder, Andrew D ^a   Pu, Zhaoxia ^a   Zhu, Yuejian ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF UTAH   (United States)

^b CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER   (United States)

Author keywords

Atlantic Ocean; Cyclogenesis; Ensembles; Forecast verification; Tropical cyclones

Indexed keywords

ATLANTIC OCEAN; CYCLOGENESIS; ENSEMBLES; FORECAST VERIFICATION; TROPICAL CYCLONE;

ATMOSPHERIC THERMODYNAMICS; HURRICANES; NASA; STORMS; TROPICS;

FORECASTING;

CYCLOGENESIS; ENSEMBLE FORECASTING; PROBABILITY; STORM TRACK; TRACKING; TROPICAL CYCLONE; WEATHER FORECASTING;

ATLANTIC OCEAN;

EID: 78149308435     PISSN: 08828156     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/2010WAF2222332.1     Document Type: Article

References (33)

1. Aberson, S. D., 1999: Ensemble-based products to improve tropical cyclone forecasting. Preprints, 23rd Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Dallas, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 843-844.
2. Aberson, S. D., 2001: The ensemble of tropical cyclone track forecasting models in the North Atlantic Basin (1976-2000). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 82, 1895-1904.
3. Aberson, S. D., M. A. Bender, and R. E. Tuleya, 1998: Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone tracks. Preprints, 12th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Phoenix, AZ, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 290-292.
4. Albignat, J. P., and R. J. Reed, 1980: The origin of African wave disturbances during phase III of GATE. Mon. Wea. Rev., 108, 1827-1839.
5. Beven, J. L., 1999: The boguscane-A serious problem with the NCEP medium range forecast model in the Tropics. Preprints, 23rd Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Dallas, TX, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 845-848.
6. Buizza, R., P. L. Houtekamer, Z. Toth, G. Pellerin, M. Wei, and Y. Zhu, 2005: A comparison of the ECMWF, MSC, and NCEP global ensemble prediction systems. Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 1076-1097.
7. Burpee, R., 1972: The origin and structure of easterly waves in the lower troposphere of North Africa. J. Atmos. Sci., 29, 77-90.
8. Chen, T. C, 2006: Characteristics of African easterly waves depicted by ECMWF reanalyses for 1991-2000. Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 3539-3566.
9. Cheung, K. W., and J. C L. Chan, 1999: Ensemble forecasting of tropical cyclone motion using a barotropic model. Part II: Perturbations of the vortex. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 2617-2640.
10. Cheung, K. W., and R. L. Elsberry, 2002: Tropical cyclone formation over the western North Pacific in the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System forecasts. Wea. Forecasting, 17, 800-820.
11. Fink, A. H, D. G. Vincent, P. M. Reiner, and P. Speth, 2004: Mean state and wave disturbances during phases I, II, and III of GATE based on ERA-40. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 1661-1683.
12. Goerss, J. S., 2000: Tropical cyclone track forecasts using an ensemble of dynamical models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 1187-1193.
13. Hennon, C. C, and J. S. Hobgood, 2003: Forecasting tropical cyclogenesis over the Atlantic basin using large-scale data. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 2927-2940.
14. Kerns, B., K. Greene, and E. Zipser, 2008: Four years of tropical ERA-40 vorticity maxima tracks. Part I: Climatology and vertical vorticity structure. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 4301-4319.
15. Krishnamurti, T. N., C. M. Kishtawal, Z. Zhang, T. LaRow, D. Bachiochi, E. Williford, S. Gadgil, and S. Surendran, 2000: Multimodel ensemble forecasts for weather and seasonal climate. J. Climate, 13, 4196-4216.
16. Liu, Q., S. Lord, N. Surgi, Y. Zhu, R. Wobus, Z. Toth, and T. Marchok, 2006: Hurricane relocation in global ensemble forecast system. Preprints, 27th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, Monterey, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soe, P5.13. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/108503.pdf.]
17. Mackey, B. P., and T. N. Krishnamurti, 2001: Ensemble forecast of a typhoon flood event. Wea. Forecasting, 16, 399-415.
18. Marchok, T. P., 2002: How the NCEP Tropical Cyclone Tracker works. Preprints, 25th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc., P1.13. [Available online at http://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/37628.pdf.]
19. McBride, J. L., and R. Zehr, 1981: Observational analysis of tropical cyclone formation. Part II: Comparison of non-developing versus developing systems. J. Atmos. Sci., 38, 1132-1151.
20. Pasch, R. J., J.-G. Jiing, F. M. Horsfall, H.-L. Pan, and N. Surgi, 2002: Forecasting tropical cyclogenesis in the NCEP global model. Preprints, 25th Conf. on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, San Diego, CA, Amer. Meteor. Soc, 178-179.
21. Perrone, T. J., and P. R. Lowe, 1986: A statistically derived prediction procedure for tropical storm formation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 114, 165-177.
22. Pytharoulis, I., and C. Thorncroft, 1999: The low-level structure of African easterly waves in 1995. Mon. Wea. Rev., 127, 2266-2280.
23. Reed, R., A. Hollingsworth, W. Heckley, and F. Delsol, 1988: An evaluation of the performance of the ECMWF operational system in analyzing and forecasting easterly wave disturbances over Africa and the tropical Atlantic. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 824-865.
24. Rennick, M. A., 1999: Performance of the navy's tropical cyclone prediction model in the western North Pacific basin during 1996. Wea. Forecasting, 14, 297-305.
25. Reynolds, C. A., J. Teixeira, and J. G McLay, 2008: Impact of stochastic convection on the ensemble transform. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 4517-4526.
26. Rogers, R., and Coauthors, 2006: The Intensity Forecasting Experiment: A NOAA multiyear field program for improving tropical cyclone intensity forecasts. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 87, 1523-1537.
27. Thorncroft, C, and K. Hodges, 2001: African easterly wave variability and its relationship to Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. J. Climate, 14, 1166-1179.
28. Toth, Z., and E. Kalnay, 1997: Ensemble forecasting at NCEP and the breeding method. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 3297-3319.
29. Weber, H. C., 2003: Hurricane track prediction using a statistical ensemble of numerical models. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131, 749-770.
30. Wei, M., Z. Toth, R. Wobus, and Y. Zhu, 2008: Initial perturbations based on the ensemble transform (ET) technique in the NCEP global operational forecast system. Tellus, 60, 62-79.
31. Zawislak, J. A., and E. J. Zipser, 2009: Observations of seven African easterly waves in the east Atlantic during 2006. J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 26-43.
32. Zhang, Z., and T. N. Krishnamurti, 1997: Ensemble forecasting of hurricane tracks. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 78, 2785-2795.
33. Zipser, E. J., and Coauthors, 2009: The Saharan air layer and the fate of African easterly waves-NASA's AMMA 2006 field program to study tropical cyclogenesis. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, 1137-1156.