Flood peak distributions for the eastern United States

Water Resources Research

Volumn 46, Issue 6, 2010, Pages

  Villarini, Gabriele ^a,b   Smith, James A ^a  

^a Princeton University   (United States)

^b Towers Watson   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ABRUPT CHANGE; ANNUAL MAXIMA; APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS; CHANGE-POINT ANALYSIS; CHANGE-POINTS; COASTAL PLAIN; EXTRATROPICAL; FLOOD FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTIONS; FLOOD PEAK; GAGING STATIONS; GENERALIZED EXTREME VALUE; LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES; NON-PARAMETRIC TEST; NON-STATIONARITIES; RELATIVE IMPORTANCE; RIVER BASINS; SCALING ANALYSIS; SCALING PROPERTIES; SHAPE PARAMETERS; SPATIAL HETEROGENEITY; TEMPORAL TRENDS; TREND ANALYSIS; TROPICAL CYCLONE; WARM SEASONS;

CLIMATE CHANGE; DISCHARGE (FLUID MECHANICS); FLOODS; GAGING; HURRICANES; RAIN; THUNDERSTORMS; TIME SERIES;

FLOOD CONTROL;

COASTAL PLAIN; FLOODING; PEAK DISCHARGE; PEAK FLOW; RIVER BASIN; SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION; THUNDERSTORM; TROPICAL CYCLONE;

APPALACHIANS; UNITED STATES;

EID: 77958589943     PISSN: 00431397     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1029/2009WR008395     Document Type: Article

References (95)

1. Aula, Y., and A. Mtiraoui (2002), Implications of heterogeneous floodfrequency distributions on traditional stream-discharge prediction techniques, Hydrol. Processes, 16, 1065-1084.
2. Alley, R. B., et al. (2003), Abrupt climate change, Science, 299, 2005-2010.
3. Arnell, N. W., and S. Gabriele (1988), The performance of the twocomponent extreme value distribution in regional flood frequency analysis, Water Resour. Res., 24(6), 879-887.
4. Beran, J. (1994), Statistics for Long-Memory Processes, Monogr. Stat. Appl. Probab., vol. 61, Chapman and Hall, New York.
5. Billington, D. P., and D. C. Jackson (2006), Big Dams of the New Deal Era: A Confluence of Engineering and Politics, 369 pp., Univ. of Okla. Press, Cambridge.
6. Blanchard, S. F. (2007), Recent improvements to the U.S. Geological Survey streamgaging program, Fact Sheet 2007-3080, U.S. Geol. Surv., Washington, D. C.
7. Blöschl, G., and M. Sivapalan (1997), Process controls on regional flood frequency: Coefficient of variation and basin scale, Water Resour. Res., 33(12), 2967-2980.
8. Brillinger, D. R. (2001), Time Series: Data Analysis and Theory, 540 pp., Soc. for Ind. and Appl. Math., Philadelphia, Pa.
9. Browne, M. J., and R. E. Hoyt (2000), The demand for flood insurance: Empirical evidence, J. Risk Uncertainty, 20(3), 291-306.
10. Burn, D. H, (1990), Evaluation of regional flood frequency analysis with a region of influence approach, Water Resour. Res., 26(10), 2257-2265.
11. Burn, D. H. (1997), Catchment similarity for regional flood frequency analysis using seasonality measures, J. Hydrol, 202, 212-230.
12. Carolan, M. S. (2007), One step forward, two steps back: Flood management policy in the United States, Environ. Polit., 16(1), 36-51. (Pubitemid 47179918)
13. Changnon, S. A., and K. E. Kunkel (1995), Climate-related fluctuations in Midwestern, floods during 1921-1985, J. Water Resour. Plann. Manage., 121(4), 326-334.
14. Cleveland, W. S. (1979), Robust locally weighted regression and smoothing scatterplots, J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 74, 829-836.
15. Cohn, T. A., and H. F. Lins (2005), Nature's style: Naturally trendy, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L23402, doi:10.1029/2005GL024476.
16. Coles, S. (2001), An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values, Springer, London.
17. Collins, M. J. (2009), Evidence of changing flood risk in New England since the late 20th century, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 42(2), 279-290.
18. Cox, D. R., and A. Stuart (1955), Some quick sign tests for trend in location and dispersion, Biometrika, 42, 80-95.
19. Cunnane, C. (1988), Methods and merits of regional flood frequency analysis, J. Hydrol., 100, 269-290.
20. Douglas, E. M., R. M. Vogel, and C. N. Kroll (2000), Trends in floods and low flows in the United States: Impact of spatial correlation, J. Hydrol, 240, 90-105.
21. El Adlouni, S., B. Bobeé, and T. B. M. J. Ouarda (2008), On the tails of extreme event distributions in hydrology, J. Hydrol, 355, 16-33.
22. Enfield, D. B., A. M. Mestas-Nunez, and P. J. Trimble (2001), The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and its relation to rainfall and river flows in the continental U.S., Geophys. Res. Lett., 25(10), 2077-2080.
23. Ferrari, J. R., T. R. Lookingbill, B. McCormick, P. A. Townsend, and K. N. Eshleman (2009), Surface mining and reclamation effects on flood response of watersheds in the central Appalachian Plateau region, Water Resour. Res., 45, W04407, doi:10.1029/2008WR007109.
24. Furey, P. R., and V. K. Gupta (2005), Effects of excess rainfall on the temporal variability of observed peak-discharge power laws, Adv. Water Resour., 28, 1240-1253.
25. Gebert, W. A., and W. R. Krug (1996), Streamflow trends in Wisconsin's driftless area, Water Resour. Bull., 32(4), 733-744.
26. Gleick, P. H. (1989). Climate change, hydrology, and water resources, Rev. Geophys., 27(3), 329-344.
27. Groisman, P. Y., R. W. Knight, and T. R. Karl (2001), Heavy precipitation and high streamflow in the contiguous United States: Trends in the 20th century, Bull. Am. Meteorol Soc., 82, 219-246.
28. Groisman, P. Y., R. W. Knight, T. R. Karl, D. R. Easterling, B. Sun, and J. H. Lawrimore (2004), Contemporary changes of the hydrological cycle over the contiguous United States: Trends derived from in situ observations, J. Hydrometeorol, 5, 64-85.
29. Gupta, V. K. (2004), Emergence of statistical scaling in floods on channel networks from complex runoff dynamics, Chaos Solitons Fractals, 19, 357-365.
30. Gupta, V. K., and D. R. Dawdy (1995), Physical interpretations of regional variations in the scaling exponents of flood quantiles, Hydrol Processes, 9, 347-361.
31. Gupta, V. K., O. J. Mesa, and D. R. Dawdy (1994), Multiscaling theory of flood peaks: Regional quantile analysis, Water Resour. Res., 50(12), 3405-3421.
32. Gupta, V. K., S. L. Castro, and T. M. Over (1996), On scaling of spatial peak flows from rainfall and river network geometry, J. Hydrol., 187, 81-104.
33. Hamed, K. H. (2009), Exact distribution of the Mann-Kendall trend test statistic for persistence data, J. Hydrol, 365, 86-94.
34. Hamed, K. H., and A. R. Rao (1998), A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data, J. Hydrol., 204, 182-196.
35. Hart, R. E., and J. L. Evans (2001), A climatology of the extratropical transition of Atlantic tropical cyclones, J. Clim., 14, 546-564.
36. Held, I. M., and B. J. Soden (2006), Robust responses of the hydrological cycle to global warming, J. Clim., 19, 5686-5699.
37. Helsel, D. R., and R. M. Hirsch (1993), Statistical Methods in Water Resources, 522 pp., Elsevier, Amsterdam.
38. Hirschboeck, K. K. (1987), Hydroclimatically defined mixed distributions in partial duration flood series, in Hydrologic Frequency Modeling, edited by V. P. Singh, pp. 199-212, D. Reidel, Dordrecht, Netherlands.
39. Hosking, J. R. M. (1990), L-moments: Analysis and estimation of distributions using linear combinations of order statistics, J. R. Stat. Soc., Ser. B, 52(1), 105-124.
40. Hosking, J. R. M., and J. R. Wallis (1996), Regional frequency analysis of floods in central Appalachia, Res. Rep. RC20349, IBM Res., Armonk, N. Y.
41. Hosking, J. R. M., and J. R. Wallis (1997), Regional Frequency Analysis: An Approach Based on L-Moments, Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, U. K.
42. Hurst, H. E. (1951), Long-term storage capacity of reservoirs, Trans. Am. Soc. Civ. Eng., 116, 770-779.
43. Jarvinen, B. R., C. J. Neumann, and M. A. S. Davis (1984), A tropical cyclone data tape for the North Atlantic Basin, 1886-1983: Contents, limitations, and uses, Tech. Memo. NWS NHC 22, NOAA, Washington, D. C.
44. Javier, J. R. N., J. A. Smith, M. L. Baeck, and G. Villarini (2010), Flash flooding in the Philadelphia metropolitan region, J. Hydrol. Eng., 15, 29-38.
45. Juckem, P. F., R. J. Hunt, M. P. Anderson, and D. M. Robertson (2008), Effects of climate and land management change on streamflow in the driftless area of Wisconsin, J. Hydrol, 355, 123-130.
46. Karl, T. R., and R. W. Knight (1998), Secular trends of precipitation amounts, frequency, and intensity in the USA, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 79, 231-241.
47. Katz, E. W., M. B. Parlange, and P. Naveau (2002), Statistics of extremes in hydrology, Adv. Water Resour., 25, 1287-1304.
48. Koutsoyiannis, D. (2006), Nonstationarity versus scaling in hydrology, J. Hydrol., 324, 239-254.
49. Koutsoyiannis, D., and A. Montanari (2007), Statistical analysis of hydroclimatic time series: Uncertainty and insights, Water Resour. Res., 43, W05429, doi: 10.1029/2006WR005592.
50. Kulkami, A., and H. von Stroch (1995), Monte Carlo experiments on the effect of serial correlation on the Mann-Kendall test of trend, Meteorol Z., 4(2), 82-85.
51. Kundzewicz, Z. W., and A. J. Robson (2004), Change detection in hydrological records: A review of the methodology, Hydrol. Sci. J., 49(1), 7-19.
52. Leadbetter, R. (1983), Extremes and local dependence in stationary sequences, Z. Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie Verw. Geb., 651, 291-306.
53. Lins, H. F., and J. R. Slack (1999), Streamflow trends in the United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 26(2), 227-230.
54. Magilligan, F. J., and K. H. Nislow (2001), Long-term changes in regional hydrologic regime following impoundment in a humid-climate watershed, J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc., 37(6), 1551-1569.
55. Magilligan, F. J., and M. L. Stamp (1997), Historical land-cover changes and hydrogeomorphic adjustment in a small Georgia watershed, Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr., 87(4), 614-635.
56. Martins, E. S., and J. R. Stedinger (2000), Generalized maximumlikelihood generalized extreme-value quantile estimators for hydrologic data, Water Resour. Res., 36(3), 737-744.
57. Mauget, S. A. (2003), Multidecadal regime shifts in U.S. streamflow, precipitation, and temperature at the end of the twentieth, century, J. Clim., 16, 3905-3916.
58. McCabe, G. J., and D. M. Wolock (2002), A step increase in streamflow in the conterminous United States, Geophys. Res. Lett., 29(24), 2185, doi:10.1029/2002GL015999.
59. McCuen, R. H. (2002), Modeling Hydrologic Change: Statistical Methods, CRC Press, Boca Raton, Fla.
60. Merz, R., and G. Blöschl (2005), Flood frequency regionalisation:-Spatial. proximity vs. catchment attributes, J. Hydrol., 302, 283-306.
61. Merz, R., and G. Blöschl (2009), Process controls on the statistical flood moments: A data based analysis, Hydrol Processes, 23, 675-696.
62. Miller, A. J. (1990), Flood hydrology and geomorphic effectiveness in the central Appalachians, Earth Surf. Processes Landforms, 15, 119-134.
63. Milly, P. C. D., K. A. Dunne, and A. V. Vecchia (2005), Global pattern of trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate, Nature, 438(17), 347-350.
64. Milly, P. C. D., J. Betancourt, M. Falkenmark, R. M. Hirsch, Z. W. Kundzewicz, D. P. Lettenmaier, and R. J. Stouffer (2008), Stationarity is dead: Whiter water management?, Science, 319, 573-574.
65. Morrison, J. E., and J. A. Smith (2002), Stochastic modeling of flood peaks using the generalized extreme value distribution, Water Resour. Res., 55(12), 1305, doi:10.1029/2001WR000502.
66. Murphy, P. J. (2001), Evaluation of mixed-population flood-frequency analysis, J. Hydrol. Eng., 6, 62-70.
67. Negley, T. L., and K. N. Eshleman (2006), Comparison of stormflow responses of surface-mined and forested watersheds in the Appalachian Mountains, USA, Hydrol. Processes, 20, 3467-3483.
68. Neumann, C. J., B. R. Jarvinen, C. J. McAdie, and J. D. Elms (1993), Tropical cyclones of the North Atlantic Ocean, 1871-1992, technical memo, Natl. dim. Data Cent., Asheville, N. C.
69. Nijssen, B., G. M. O'Donnell, A. F. Hamlet, and D. P. Lettenmaier (2001), Hydrologic sensitivity of global, rivers to climate change, Clim. Change, 50(1-2), 143-175.
70. Northrop, P. J. (2004), Likelihood-based approaches to flood frequency estimation, J. Hydrol., 292, 96-113.
71. Pegram, G. G. S. (2000), Testing for change in variability and persistence in time series, in Detecting Trend and Other Changes in Hydrological Data, Rep. WCDMP -45, Rep. WMO/TD 1013, edited by Z. Kundzewicz and A. Robson, pp. 104-109, World Clim. Programme Data and Monit., World Clim. Programme Water, World. Meteorol. Org., Geneva, Switzerland.
72. Pettitt, A. N. (1979), A non-parametric approach to the change-point problem, J. R. Stat. Soc., Ser. C, 28(2), 126-135.
73. Pielke, R. A., Jr., and C. W. Landsea (1998), Normalized hurricane damages in the United States: 1925-95, Weather Forecasting, 13(3), 621-631.
74. Pielke, R. A., Jr., J. Gratz, C. W. Landsea, D. Collins, M. A. Saunders, and R. Musulin (2008), Normalized hurricane damage in the United States: 1900-2005, Nat. Hazards Rev., 9(1), 29-42.
75. Potter, K. W. (1979), Annual precipitation in the northeast United States: Long memory, short memoiy, or no memory, Water Resour. Res., 15(2), 340-346. (Pubitemid 10254980)
76. Potter, K. W. (1.991), Hydrological impacts of changing land management practices in a moderate-sized agricultural, catchment, Water Resour. Res., 27(5), 845-855.
77. Rappaport, E. N. (2000), Loss of life in the United States associated with recent Atlantic tropical cyclones, Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 81, 2065-2073.
78. Reeves, J., J. Chen, X. L. Wang, R. Lund, and Q. Lu (2007), A review and comparison of changepoint detection techniques for climate data, J. Appl Meteorol. Climatol., 46, 900-915.
79. Resnick, S. I. (2006), Heavy-Tail Phenomena: Probabilistic and Statistical Modeling, Springer, New York.
80. Robinson, J. S., and M. Sivapalan (1997), An investigation into the physical causes of scaling and heterogeneity of regional flood frequency, Water Resour. Res., 33(5), 1045-1059.
81. Rossi, F., M. Fiorentino, and P. Versace (1984), Two-component extreme value distribution for flood frequency analysis, Water Resour. Res., 20(1), 847-856. (Pubitemid 14602063)
82. Salas, J. D. (1993), Analysis and modeling of hydrologiC time series, in Handbook of Hydrology, edited by D. R. Maidment, pp. 19.1-19.72, McGraw-Hill, New York.
83. Small, D., S. Islam, and R. M. Vogel (2006), Trends in precipitation and streamflow in the eastern U.S.: Paradox or perception?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L03403, doi:10.1029/2005GL024995.
84. Smith, J. A. (1989), Regional flood frequency analysis using extreme order statistics of the annual peak, record, Water Resour. Res., 25(2), 311-317.
85. Stedinger, J. R., and L. H. Lu (1995), Appraisal of regional and index, flood quantile estimators, Stochastic Hydrol. Hydraul, 9, 49-75.
86. Stedinger, J. R., R. M. Vogel, and E. Foufoula-Georgiou (1993), Frequency analysis of extreme events, in Handbook of Hydrology, edited by D. R. Maidment, pp. 18.1-18.65, McGraw-Hill, New York.
87. Sturdevant-Rees, P., J. A. Smith, J. Morrison, and M. L. Baeck (2001), Tropical storms and the flood hydrology of the central Appalachians, Water Resour. Res., 57(8), 2143-2168.
88. U.S. Geological Society (USGS) (1.998), A new evaluation of the USGS streamgaging network: A report to Congress, technical report, 20 pp., Washington, D. C.
89. Villarini, G., F. Serinaldi, J. A. Smith, and W. F. Krajewski (2009), On the stationarity of annual flood peaks in the continental United States during the 20th century, Water Resour. Res., 45, W08417, doi:10.1029/ 2008WR007645.
90. Voss, R., W. May, and E. Roeckner (2002), Enhanced resolution modelling study on anthropogenic climate change: Changes in extremes of the hydrological cycle, Int. J. Climatol., 22, 755-777.
91. Waylen, P. (1991), Modeling the effects of tropical cyclones on flooding in the Santa Fe River Basin, Florida, GeoJournal, 23, 361-373.
92. Waylen, P., and M.-K. Woo (1982), Prediction of annual flood generated by mixed processes, Water Resour. Res., 18(4), 1283-1286. (Pubitemid 123446)
93. World Meteorological Organization (1986), Manual for estimation of probable maximum precipitation, Operational Hydrol. Rep. WMO 332, Geneva, Switzerland.
94. Yue, S., and C. Y. Wang (2002), Applicability of prewhitening to eliminate the influence of serial correlation on the Mann-Kendall test, Water Resour. Res., 38(6), 1.068, doi:10.1029/2001WR000861.
95. Zhang, X., F. W. Zwiers, and G. Li. (2004), Monte Carlo experiments on the detection of trends in extreme values, J. Clim., 17, 1945-1952.