Fraud detection in play-money prediction markets

Information Systems and e-Business Management

Volumn 8, Issue 4, 2010, Pages 395-413

  Blume, Michael ^a   Luckner, Stefan ^a   Weinhardt, Christof ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF KARLSRUHE   (Germany)

Author keywords

Coalition building; Fraud detection; Manipulation; Prediction markets

Indexed keywords

EID: 77958510045     PISSN: 16179846     EISSN: 16179854     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10257-008-0103-3     Document Type: Article

References (21)

1. Allen F, Gale D (1992) Stock-price manipulation. Rev Financ Stud 5(3): 503-529.
2. Berg JE, Forsythe R, Nelson F, Rietz TA (2001) Results from a Dozen years of election futures markets research. In: Plott CR, Smith VL (eds) Handbook of experimental economic results. Elsevier Press, New York.
3. Bohm PJG, Sonnegård J (1999) Political stock markets and unreliable polls. Scand J Econ 101(2): 205-222.
4. Bolton RJ, Hand DJ (2002) Statistical fraud detection: a review. Stat Sci 17(3): 235-255.
5. Camerer CF (1998) Can asset markets be manipulated? A field experiment with racetrack betting. J Polit Econ 106(3): 457-481.
6. Fama EF (1970) Efficient capital markets: a review of theory and empirical work. J Financ 25(2): 383-417.
7. Garey MR, Johnson DS (1979) Computers and intractability: a guide to the theory of NP-completeness. (W. H.) Freeman, New York.
8. Gini C (1936) On the measure of concentration with special reference to income and wealth. Abstracts of papers presented at the Cowels Commission Research Conference on Economics and Statistics. Colorado Springs, Colorado College, pp 73-80.
9. Hansen J, Schmidt C, Strobel M (2004) Manipulation in political stock markets-preconditions and evidence. Appl Econ Lett 11(7): 459-463.
10. Hanson R, Oprea R (2004) Manipulators increase information market accuracy. George Mason University Working Paper.
11. Hanson R, Oprea R, Porter D (2006) Information aggregation and manipulation in an experimental market. J Econ Behav Organ 60(4): 449-459.
12. Inokuchi A, Washio T, Motoda H (2003) Complete mining of frequent patterns from graphs: mining graph data. Mach Learn 50(3): 321-354.
13. Kyle AS (1985) Continuous auctions and insider trading. Econometrica 53(6): 1315-1335.
14. Kyle AS (1989) Informed speculation with imperfect competition. Rev Econ Stud 56(3): 317-355.
15. Luckner S, Weinhardt C (2007) How to pay trader in information markets? Results from a field experiment. J Prediction Mark 1(2): 147-156.
16. Oprea R, Porter D, Hibert C, Hanson R, Tila D (2006) Can manipulators mislead prediction market observers? George Mason University Working Paper.
17. Ottaviani M, Sørensen PN (2007) Outcome manipulation in corporate prediction markets. J Eur Econ Assoc 5(2-3): 554-563.
18. Rolli D, Neumann D, Weinhardt C (2004) A minimal market model in ephemeral markets. In: Proceedings of the form EMC, Toledo, Spain.
19. Slamka C, Luckner S, Seemann T, Schroeder J (2008) An empirical investigation of the forecast accuracy of play-money prediction markets and professional betting markets. In: Proceeding of the 16th European Conference on Information Systems (ECIS), Galway, Ireland.
20. Vila J-L (1989) Simple games of market manipulation. Econ Lett 29(1): 21-26.
21. Wolfers J, Zitzewitz E (2006) Five open questions about prediction markets. In: Tetlock P, Hahn RW (eds) Information markets: a new way of making decisions. AEI-Brookings Joint Center for Regulatory Studies, pp 13-39.