Statistical adequacy and the trustworthiness of empirical evidence: Statistical vs. substantive information

Economic Modelling

Volumn 27, Issue 6, 2010, Pages 1436-1452

  Spanos, Aris ^a  

^a VIRGINIA POLYTECHNIC INSTITUTE AND STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Error fixing; Misspecification; Respecification; Statistical adequacy; Statistical premises; Substantive adequacy; Substantive information; Unreliable inferences; Untrustworthy empirical evidence

Indexed keywords

EID: 77958163922     PISSN: 02649993     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2010.07.007     Document Type: Article

References (61)

1. Berry W.D. Understanding Regression Assumptions 1993, Sage Publications, London.
2. Billingsley P. Probability and Measure 1995, Wiley, NY. 4th ed.
3. D'Agostino R.B., Pearson E.S. Tests for departure from Normality: empirical results for the distribution of b2 and b3. Biometrika 1973, 60:613-622.
4. Engle R.F., Hendry D.F., Richard J.-F. Exogeneity. Econometrica 1983, 51:277-304.
5. Fisher R.A. On the mathematical foundations of theoretical statistics. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 1922, 222:309-368.
6. Fisher R.A. Theory of statistical estimation. Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society 1925, 22:700-725.
7. Fisher R.A. Two new properties of maximum likelihood. Proceedings of the Royal Statistical Society, A 1934, 144:285-307.
8. Fisher R.A. Statistical methods and scientific induction. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, B 1955, 17:69-78.
9. Friedman M. The methodology of positive economics. Essays in Positive Economics 1953, 3-43. Chicago University Press, Chicago, reprinted in Mäki (2009).
10. Goldberger A.S. Econometric Theory 1964, Wiley, NY.
11. Greene W.H. Econometric Analysis 2008, Prentice Hall, NJ. 6th ed.
12. Guala F. The Methodology of Experimental Economics 2005, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
13. Gujarati D.N. Basic Econometrics 2009, McGraw-Hill, NY. 5th ed.
14. Hacking I. Logic of Statistical Inference 1965, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
15. Hendry D.F. Econometrics: Alchemy or Science? 2000, Blackwell, Oxford. 2nd ed.
16. Johnston J. Econometric Methods 1963, McGraw-Hill, NY.
17. Kennedy P. A Guide to Econometrics 2008, MIT Press, MA. 6th edition.
18. Keynes J.M. Professor Tinbergen's method. Economic Journal 1939, 49:558-568.
19. Koutris A., Heracleous M., Spanos A. Testing for non-stationarity using maximum entropy resampling: a misspecification testing perspective. Econometric Reviews 2008, 27:363-384.
20. Kramer W., Sonnberger H. The Linear Regression Model under Test 1986, Physica-Verlag, Heidelberg.
21. Lehmann E.L. Model specification: the views of Fisher and Neyman, and later developments. Statistical Science 1990, 5:160-168.
22. Li Q., Racine J.S. Nonparametric Econometrics: Theory and Practice 2006, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.
23. Mäki U. The Methodology of Positive Economics: Reflections on the Milton Friedman Legacy 2009, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
24. Malthus T.R. Principles of Political Economy, Reprints of Economic Classics, 1986, Augustus 1836, M. Kelley, NJ.
25. Generalized Method of Moments Estimation 1999, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. L. Matyas (Ed.).
26. Mayo D.G. Error and the Growth of Experimental Knowledge 1996, The University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
27. Mayo D.G. Duhem's problem, the Bayesian way, and error statistics, or What's Belief Got to Do with It?. Philosophy of Science 1997, 64:222-244.
28. Mayo D.G., Spanos A. Methodology in practice: statistical misspecification testing. Philosophy of Science 2004, 71:1007-1025.
29. Mayo D.G., Spanos A. Severe testing as a basic concept in a Neyman-Pearson philosophy of induction. The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 2006, 57:323-357.
30. Error and Inference: Recent Exchanges on Experimental Reasoning, Reliability and the Objectivity and Rationality of Science 2010, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. D.G. Mayo, A. Spanos (Eds.).
31. Mayo, D.G., Spanos, A., 2010b. Error statistics. In: Gabbay, D., Thagard, P., Woods, J. (Eds.), The Handbook of Philosophy of Science, Philosophy of Statistics, vol. 7. Elsevier, pp. 151-196.
32. McGuirk A., Spanos A. Revisiting error autocorrelation correction: common factor restrictions and granger non-causality. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 2009, 71:273-294.
33. Moore H.L. Economic Cycles - Their Laws and Cause 1914, McMillan, NY.
34. Neyman J. Note on an article by Sir Ronald Fisher. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, B 1956, 18:288-294.
35. Neyman J., Pearson E.S. On the problem of the most efficient tests of statistical hypotheses. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 1933, 231:289-337.
36. Pearson K. The fundamental problem of practical statistics. Biometrika 1920, XIII:1-16.
37. Rao C.R. Statistics: reflections on the past and visions for the future. Amstat News 2004, 327:2-3.
38. Ricardo D. Principles of political economy and taxation. The Collected Works of Davie Ricardo 1817, vol. 1. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. P. Sraffa, M. Dobb (Eds.).
39. Spanos A. Statistical Foundations of Econometric Modelling 1986, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
40. Spanos A. On re-reading Haavelmo: a retrospective view of econometric modeling. Econometric Theory 1989, 5:405-429.
41. Spanos A. The simultaneous equations model revisited: statistical adequacy and identification. Journal of Econometrics 1990, 44:87-108.
42. Spanos A. On theory testing in econometrics: modeling with nonexperimental data. Journal of Econometrics 1995, 67:189-226.
43. Spanos A. Probability Theory and Statistical Inference: Econometric Modeling with Observational Data 1999, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
44. Spanos A. Revisiting data mining: 'hunting' with or without a license. The Journal of Economic Methodology 2000, 7:231-264.
45. Spanos A. Parametric versus non-parametric inference: statistical models and simplicity. Simplicity, Inference and Modelling: Keeping it Sophisticatedly Simple 2001, 181-206. ch. 11, Cambridge University Press. A. Zellner, H.A. Keuzenkamp, M. McAleer (Eds.).
46. Spanos A. Econometrics in retrospect and prospect. New Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics 2006, vol. 1:3-58. MacMillan, London. T.C. Mills, K. Patterson (Eds.).
47. Spanos A. Where do statistical models come from? Revisiting the problem of specification. Lecture Notes-Monograph Series 2006, vol. 49:98-119. Institute of Mathematical Statistics. J. Rojo (Ed.).
48. Spanos A. Revisiting the omitted variables argument: substantive vs. statistical adequacy. Journal of Economic Methodology 2006, 13:179-218.
49. Spanos A. The instrumental variables method revisited: on the nature and choice of optimal instruments. Refinement of Econometric Estimation and Test Procedures 2007, 34-59. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. G.D.A. Phillips, E. Tzavalis (Eds.).
50. Spanos A. Curve-fitting, the reliability of inductive inference and the error-statistical approach. Philosophy of Science 2007, 74:1046-1066.
51. Spanos A. Statistics and economics. New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics 2008, 1129-1162. Palgrave Macmillan, London. 2nd edition. S.N. Durlauf, L.E. Blume (Eds.).
52. Spanos A. The pre-eminence of theory versus the European CVAR perspective in macroeconometric modeling. Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 2009, 3:2009-2010. http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/journalarticles/2009-10.
53. Spanos, A., 2009b. Statistical misspecification and the reliability of inference: the simple t-test in the presence of Markov dependence. Korean Economic Review 25, 165-213.
54. Spanos A. Theory testing in economics and the error statistical perspective. Error and Inference 2010, 202-246. D.G. Mayo, A. Spanos (Eds.).
55. Spanos A. Akaike-type Criteria and the Reliability of Inference: Model Selection vs. Statistical Model Specification. Journal of Econometrics 2010, 158:204-220.
56. Spanos A., McGuirk A. The model specification problem from a probabilistic reduction perspective. Journal of the American Agricultural Association 2001, 83:1168-1176.
57. Spanos A., McGuirk A. The problem of near-multicollinearity revisited: erratic vs. systematic volatility. Journal of Econometrics 2002, 108:365-393.
58. Stock J.H., Watson M.W. Introduction to Econometrics 2006, Addison-Wesley. 2nd ed.
59. Swamy P.A.V.B. Efficient inference in a random coefficient regression model. Econometrica 1970, 38:311-323.
60. Swamy P.A.V.B. Statistical Inference in Random Coefficient Regression Models 1971, Springer-Verlag, NY.
61. Wooldridge J.M. Introductory Econometrics: a Modern Approach 2009, Thomson, South-Western. 3rd ed.