Neurofuzzy decision support system for efficient risk allocation in public-private partnership infrastructure projects

Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering

Volumn 24, Issue 6, 2010, Pages 525-538

  Jin, Xiao Hua ^a  

^a DEAKIN UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

Author keywords

Decision support system; Infrastructure; Neurofuzzy; Organizational capability; Public private partnership; Risk allocation; Transaction cost economics

Indexed keywords

INFRASTRUCTURE; NEURO-FUZZY; ORGANIZATIONAL CAPABILITIES; PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS; RISK ALLOCATION; TRANSACTION COST ECONOMICS;

DECISION MAKING; DECISION THEORY; FUZZY INFERENCE; INTERNET PROTOCOLS; MERGERS AND ACQUISITIONS; NEURAL NETWORKS;

DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS;

EID: 77958130228     PISSN: 08873801     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)CP.1943-5487.0000058     Document Type: Article

References (94)

1. Amari, S., Cichocki, A., and Yang, H. H. (1995a). " A new learning algorithm for blind signal separation.." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 1995 Conf., MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass., 757-763. (Pubitemid 23576600)
2. Amari, S., Murata, N., Muller, K. R., Finke, M., and Yang, H. (1995b). " Statistical theory of overtraining-Is cross-validation asymptotically effective?." Advances in Neural Information Processing Systems 1995 Conf., MIT Press, Cambridge, Mass., 176-182.
3. Arndt, R. (1999). " Optimum risk transfer in build-own-operate- transfer projects: The challenge for governments.." Transactions of multi-disciplinary engineering, Australia, GE 22, 1-8.
4. Attalla, M., and Hegazy, T. (2003). " Predicting cost deviation in reconstruction projects: Artificial neural networks versus regression.." J. Constr. Eng. Manage. JCEMD4 0733-9364, 129 (4), 405-411. 10.1061/(ASCE)0733- 9364(2003)129:4(405) (Pubitemid 40265454)
5. Carrillo, P. M., Robinson, H. S., Anumba, C. J., and Bouchlaghem, N. M. (2006). " A knowledge transfer framework: The PFI context.." Constr. Manage. Econom. CMECF3 0144-6193, 24 (10), 1045-1056. 10.1080/01446190600799224 (Pubitemid 44560656)
6. Chae, M. J., and Abraham, D. M. (2001). " Neuro-fuzzy approaches for sanitary sewer pipeline condition assessment.." J. Comput. Civ. Eng. JCCEE5 0887-3801, 15 (1), 4-14. 10.1061/(ASCE)0887-3801(2001)15:1(4) (Pubitemid 32083760)
7. Chao, L. C., and Skibniewski, M. J. (1994). " Estimating construction productivity: Neural-network-based approach.." J. Comput. Civ. Eng. JCCEE5 0887-3801, 8 (2), 234-251. 10.1061/(ASCE)0887-3801(1994)8:2(234)
8. Chao, L. C., and Skibniewski, M. J. (1995). " Neural network method of estimating construction technology acceptability.." J. Constr. Eng. Manage. JCEMD4 0733-9364, 121 (1), 130-142. 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(1995)121: 1(130)
9. Chappell, T. (2009a). ConnectEast urges investors to stay, The Age, Melbourne, Australia.
10. Chappell, T. (2009b). EastLink tollway value written down, The Age, Melbourne, Australia.
11. Cheng, M. -Y., Tsai, H. -C., Ko, C. -H., and Chang, W. -T. (2008). " Evolutionary fuzzy neural inference system for decision making in geotechnical engineering.." J. Comput. Civ. Eng. JCCEE5 0887-3801, 22 (4), 272-280. 10.1061/(ASCE)0887-3801(2008)22:4(272)
12. Christodoulou, S. (2004). " Optimum bid markup calculation using neurofuzzy systems and multidimensional risk analysis algorithm.." J. Comput. Civ. Eng. JCCEE5 0887-3801, 18 (4), 322-330. 10.1061/(ASCE)0887- 3801(2004)18:4(322) (Pubitemid 40475406)
13. Chua, D. K. H., Kog, Y. C., Loh, P. K., and Jaselskis, E. J. (1997). " Model for construction budget performance-Neural network approach.." J. Constr. Eng. Manage. JCEMD4 0733-9364, 123 (3), 214-222. 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(1997)123:3(214) (Pubitemid 127590559)
14. Chun, M., and Ahn, K. (1992). " Assessment of the potential application of fuzzy set theory to accident progression event trees with phenomenological uncertainties.." Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. RESSEP 0951-8320, 37 (3), 237-252. 10.1016/0951-8320(92)90130-D
15. De Vaus, D. A. (2001). Research design in social research, SAGE, London.
16. DFA. (2005). Public private partnerships: Guideline: Commonwealth policy principles for the use of private financing: Risk management, Australian Dept. of Finance and Administration (DFA), Canberra, Australia.
17. Dickman, A. (1995). " Two-tier versus three-tier apps.." Information Week, 553, 74-77.
18. DTF. (2000). Partnerships Victoria, Victorian Dept. of Treasury and Finance (DTF), Melbourne, Australia.
19. Emsley, M. W., Lowe, D. J., Duff, A. R., Harding, A., and Hickson, A. (2002). " Data modeling and the application of a neural network approach to the prediction of total construction costs.." Constr. Manage. Econom. CMECF3 0144-6193, 20 (6), 465-472. 10.1080/01446190210151050
20. Faulkner, K. (2004). " Public-private partnerships.." Public-private partnerships: Policy and experience, A. Ghobadian, D. Gallear, N. O'Regan, and, H. Viney, eds., Palgrave Macmillan, Houndmills, England, 65-70.
21. Fuzzy logic toolbox 2 user's guide. (2007). The MathWorks, Natick, Mass.
22. Gasching, J., Klahr, P., Pople, H., Shortliffe, E., and Terry, A. (1983). " Evaluation of expert systems: Issues and case studies.." Building expert systems, F. Hayes-Roth, D. A. Waterman, and, D. B. Lenat, eds. Addison-Wesley, Reading, Mass., 241-280.
23. Goh, B. -H. (2000). " Evaluating the performance of combining neural networks and genetic algorithms to forecast construction demand: The case of the Singapore residential sector.." Constr. Manage. Econom. CMECF3 0144-6193, 18 (2), 209-217. 10.1080/014461900370834
24. Hammersley, M., and Atkinson, P. (2007). Ethnography: Principles in practice, Routledge, London, New York.
25. Han, S. H., and Diekmann, J. (2004). " Judgment-based cross-impact method for predicting cost variance for highly uncertain projects.." J. Constr. Res. ZZZZZZ 1609-9451, 5 (2), 171-192. 10.1142/S1609945104000139 (Pubitemid 41036906)
26. Hayford, O. (2006). " Successfully allocating risk and negotiating a PPP contract.." 6th Annual National Public Private Partnerships Summit: Which Way Now for Australia's PPP Market?, Rydges Jamison, Sydney, Australia.
27. Haykin, S. (1999). Neural networks: A comprehensive foundation, Prentice-Hall, Upper Saddle River, N.J.
28. Helfat, C. E., and Peteraf, M. A. (2003). " The dynamic resource-based view: Capability lifecycles.." Strategic Manage. J. SMADJ8 0143-2095, 24 (10), 997-1010. 10.1002/smj.332
29. Horikawa, S., Furuhashi, T., and Uchikawa, Y. (1992). " On fuzzy modelling using fuzzy neural networks with the back-propagation algorithm.." IEEE Trans. Neural Netw. ITNNEP 1045-9227, 3 (5), 801-806. 10.1109/72.159069 (Pubitemid 23555772)
30. Hung, C. -C. (1993). " Building a neuro-fuzzy learning control system.." AI Expert AIEXEF 0888-3785, 8 (11), 40-49.
31. Jacobides, M. G., and Hitt, L. M. (2005). " Losing sight of the forest for the trees? Productive capabilities and gains from trade as drivers of vertical scope.." Strategic Manage. J. SMADJ8 0143-2095, 26 (13), 1209-1227. 10.1002/smj.501 (Pubitemid 41655078)
32. Jang, J. -S. R. (1993). " ANFIS: Adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system.." IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. ISYMAW 0018-9472, 23 (3), 665-685. 10.1109/21.256541
33. Jang, J. -S. R., and Sun, C. -T. (1995). " Neuro-fuzzy modeling and control.." Proc. IEEE IEEPAD 0018-9219, 83 (3), 378-406. 10.1109/5.364486
34. Jin, X. -H. (2010). " Determinants of efficient risk allocation in privately financed public infrastructure projects in Australia.." J. Constr. Eng. Manage. JCEMD4 0733-9364, 136 (2), 138-150. 10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943- 7862.0000118
35. Jin, X. -H., and Doloi, H. (2008a). " Determining environmental uncertainty of risk management in privately financed public projects using fuzzy approach.." The COBRA 2008 Conf., Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, London.
36. Jin, X. -H., and Doloi, H. (2008b). " Interpreting risk allocation mechanism in public-private partnership projects: An empirical study in a transaction cost economics perspective.." Constr. Manage. Econom. CMECF3 0144-6193, 26 (7), 707-721. 10.1080/01446190801998682 (Pubitemid 351998527)
37. Jin, X. -H., and Doloi, H. (2009). " Modelling risk allocation in privately financed infrastructure projects using fuzzy logic.." Comput. Aided Civ. Infrastruct. Eng. CCIEFR 1093-9687, 24 (7), 509-524. 10.1111/j.1467-8667.2009.00609.x
38. Kangari, R. (1988). " Construction risk management.." Civ. Eng. Syst. CEESFT 1028-6608, 5, 114-120. 10.1080/02630258808970516
39. Kangari, R., and Riggs, L. S. (1989). " Construction risk assessment by linguistics.." IEEE Trans. Eng. Manage. IEEMA4 0018-9391, 36 (2), 126-131. 10.1109/17.18829
40. Kartakapoulos, S. V. (1996). Understanding neural networks and fuzzy logic: Basic concepts and applications, IEEE, New York.
41. Kasabov, N. K., Kim, J., Watts, M. J., and Gray, A. R. (1997). " FuNN/2-A fuzzy neural network architecture for adaptive learning and knowledge acquisition.." Inf. Sci. (N.Y.) ISIJBC 0020-0255, 101 (3-4), 155-175. 10.1016/S0020-0255(97)00007-8 (Pubitemid 28003829)
42. Kim, J., and Kasabov, N. (1999). " HyFIS: Adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems and their application to nonlinear dynamical systems.." Neural Networks NNETEB 0893-6080, 12 (9), 1301-1319. 10.1016/S0893-6080(99) 00067-2 (Pubitemid 29475159)
43. Kuniar, K., and Waszczyszyn, Z. (2006). " Neural networks and principal component analysis for identification of building natural periods.." J. Comput. Civ. Eng. JCCEE5 0887-3801, 20 (6), 431-436. 10.1061/(ASCE)0887-3801(2006)20:6(431) (Pubitemid 44592486)
44. Lam, K. C., Wang, D., Lee, P. T. K., and Tsang, Y. T. (2007). " Modelling risk allocation decision in construction contracts.." Int. J. Proj. Manage. IPMAEL 0263-7863, 25 (5), 485-493. 10.1016/j.ijproman.2006.11.005 (Pubitemid 46731269)
45. Lee, C. C. (1990). " Fuzzy logic in control systems: Fuzzy logic controller, Part I.." IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. ISYMAW 0018-9472, 20 (2), 404-418. 10.1109/21.52551 (Pubitemid 20702822)
46. Li, H. (1996). " Neural network models for intelligent support of mark-up estimation.." Eng., Constr., Archit. Manage. ZZZZZZ 0969-9988, 3 (1/2), 69-81. 10.1108/eb021023
47. Li, H., and Love, P. E. D. (1998). " Developing a theory of construction problem solving.." Constr. Manage. Econom. CMECF3 0144-6193, 16 (6), 721-727. 10.1080/014461998372015 (Pubitemid 128651005)
48. Li, H., and Love, P. E. D. (1999). " Combining rule-based expert systems and artificial neural networks for mark-up estimation.." Constr. Manage. Econom. CMECF3 0144-6193, 17 (2), 169-176. 10.1080/014461999371664
49. Lin, C. -T., and Lee, C. S. G. (1991). " Neural-networks-based fuzzy logic control and decision system.." IEEE Trans. Comput. ITCOB4 0018-9340, 40 (12), 1320-1336. 10.1109/12.106218
50. Lin, C. -T., and Lee, C. S. G. (1996). Neural fuzzy systems: A neuro-fuzzy synergism to intelligent systems, Prentice-Hall, Upper Saddle River, N.J.
51. Liu, M., and Ling, F. Y. Y. (2005). " Modeling a contractor's markup estimation.." J. Constr. Eng. Manage. JCEMD4 0733-9364, 131 (4), 391-399. 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(2005)131:4(391) (Pubitemid 40430135)
52. Lu, M. (2002). " Enhancing project evaluation and review technique simulation through artificial neural network-based input modeling.." Constr. Manage. Econom. CMECF3 0144-6193, 128 (5), 438-445. (Pubitemid 40265528)
53. Medda, F. (2007). " A game theory approach for the allocation of risks in transport public private partnerships.." Int. J. Proj. Manage. IPMAEL 0263-7863, 25 (3), 213-218. 10.1016/j.ijproman.2006.06.003 (Pubitemid 46323418)
54. Moscato, D. R. (1998). " Database gateway processor risk analysis using fuzzy logic.." Information Management and Computer Security, 6 (3), 138-144. 10.1108/09685229810225047 0968-5227
55. Moselhi, O., Hegazy, T., and Fazio, P. (1991). " Neural networks as tools in construction.." J. Constr. Eng. Manage. JCEMD4 0733-9364, 117 (4), 606-625. 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(1991)117:4(606)
56. NAO. (1999). Examining the value for money of deals under the private finance initiative, National Audit Office, London.
57. Ng, A., and Loosemore, M. (2007). " Risk allocation in the private provision of public infrastructure.." Int. J. Proj. Manage. IPMAEL 0263-7863, 25 (1), 66-76. 10.1016/j.ijproman.2006.06.005 (Pubitemid 44943043)
58. Ngai, E. W. T., and Wat, F. K. T. (2005). " Fuzzy decision support system for risk analysis in e-commerce development.." Decision Support Sys. DSSYDK 0167-9236, 40, 235-255. 10.1016/j.dss.2003.12.002 (Pubitemid 40266063)
59. Nunamaker, J. F. J., Chen, M., and Purdin, T. D. M. (1990). " Systems development in information systems research.." J. Manage. Inf. Syst. JMISEB 0742-1222, 7 (3), 89-106. (Pubitemid 20701990)
60. Ok, S. C., and Sinha, S. K. (2006). " Construction equipment productivity estimation using artificial neural network model.." Constr. Manage. Econom. CMECF3 0144-6193, 24 (10), 1029-1044. 10.1080/01446190600851033 (Pubitemid 44560655)
61. Paek, J. H., Lee, Y. W., and Ock, J. H. (1993). " Pricing construction risk: Fuzzy set application.." J. Constr. Eng. Manage. JCEMD4 0733-9364, 119 (4), 743-756. 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(1993)119:4(743)
62. Pearson, J. M., and Shim, J. P. (1995). " An empirical investigation into DSS structures and environments.." Decision Support Sys. DSSYDK 0167-9236, 13, 141-158. 10.1016/0167-9236(93)E0042-C
63. SEITA. (2007). EastLink project overview, Southern and Eastern Integrated Transport Authority (SEITA), Melbourne, Victoria.
64. Shann, J. J., and Fu, H. C. (1995). " A fuzzy neural network for rule acquiring on fuzzy control system.." Fuzzy Sets Syst. FSSYD8 0165-0114, 71 (3), 345-357. 10.1016/0165-0114(94)00277-E
65. Shen, L. -Y., Platten, A., and Deng, X. P. (2006). " Role of public private partnerships to manage risks in public sector projects in Hong Kong.." Int. J. Proj. Manage. IPMAEL 0263-7863, 24 (7), 587-594. 10.1016/j.ijproman.2006.07.006 (Pubitemid 44375562)
66. Shi, J. J. (1999). " A neural network based system for predicting earthmoving production.." Constr. Manage. Econom. CMECF3 0144-6193, 17 (4), 463-471. 10.1080/014461999371385
67. Soetanto, R., and Proverbs, D. G. (2004). " Intelligent models for predicting levels of client satisfaction.." J. Constr. Res. ZZZZZZ 1609-9451, 5 (2), 233-253. 10.1142/S1609945104000164 (Pubitemid 41036909)
68. Sugeno, M. (1985). Industrial applications of fuzzy control, Elsevier Science, New York.
69. Sugeno, M., and Kang, G. T. (1988). " Structure identification of fuzzy model.." Fuzzy Sets Syst. FSSYD8 0165-0114, 28, 15-33. 10.1016/0165-0114(88)90113-3
70. Tah, J. H. M., and Carr, V. (2000). " A proposal for construction project risk assessment using fuzzy logic.." Constr. Manage. Econom. CMECF3 0144-6193, 18 (4), 491-500. 10.1080/01446190050024905
71. Tah, J. H. M., Thorpe, A., and McCaffer, R. (1993). " Contractor project risks contingency allocation using linguistic approximation.." Comput. Syst. Eng. COSEEO 0956-0521, 4 (2-3), 281-293. 10.1016/0956-0521(93) 90052-X
72. Takagi, T., and Sugeno, M. (1983). " Derivation of fuzzy control rules from human operator's control actions.." The IFAC Symp. on Fuzzy Information, Knowledge Representation and Decision Analysis, Pergamon, New York, 55-60. (Pubitemid 14633040)
73. Tan, W. C. K. (2004). Practical research methods, Prentice-Hall, Singapore.
74. Tanaka, K. (1997). An introduction to fuzzy logic for practical applications, T. Niimura, translator, Springer-Verlag, New York.
75. The Age. (2009). ConnectEast says EastLink traffic up, The Age, Melbourne, Australia.
76. The World Bank. (2008). Private Participation in Infrastructure (PPI) Project Database.
77. Thomas, A. V., Kalidindi, S. N., and Ananthanarayanan, K. (2003). " Risk perception analysis of BOT road project participants in India.." Constr. Manage. Econom. CMECF3 0144-6193, 21 (4), 393-407. 10.1080/ 0144619032000064127 (Pubitemid 36933354)
78. Thompson, P., and Perry, J. G. (1992). " Engineering construction risks: A guide to project risk analysis and sisk management, Implications for project clients and project managers.." An SERC Project Rep., Thomas Telford, London.
79. Tiong, R. L. K. (1990). " BOT projects: Risks and securities.." Constr. Manage. Econom. CMECF3 0144-6193, 8 (3), 315-328.
80. Tiong, R. L. K. (1995). " Risks and guarantees in BOT tender.." J. Constr. Eng. Manage. JCEMD4 0733-9364, 121 (2), 183-188. 10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(1995)121:2(183)
81. Tsoukalas, L. H., and Uhrig, R. E. (1997). Fuzzy and neural approaches in engineering, Wiley, New York.
82. Turban, E. (1995). Decision support and expert systems: Management support system, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, N.J.
83. VIC DOI. (2004). Concession deed: Mitcham-Frankston freeway, Victorian Dept. of Infrastructure, Melbourne, Victoria.
84. Wang, L. -X., and Mendel, J. M. (1992). " Generating fuzzy rules by learning from examples.." IEEE Trans. Syst. Man Cybern. ISYMAW 0018-9472, 22 (6), 1414-1427. 10.1109/21.199466 (Pubitemid 23625904)
85. Williamson, O. E. (1985). The economic institutions of capitalism: Firms, markets, relational contracting, Free Press, New York.
86. Williamson, O. E. (1996). The mechanisms of governance, Oxford University Press, New York.
87. Wirba, E. N., Tah, J. H. M., and Howes, R. (1996). " Risk interdependencies and natural language computations.." Eng., Constr., Archit. Manage. ZZZZZZ 0969-9988, 3 (4), 251-269. 10.1108/eb021034
88. Woodward, D. G. (1995). " Use of sensitivity analysis in build-own-operate-transfer project evaluation.." Journal of Project Management, 13 (4), 239-246. 10.1016/0263-7863(95)00016-J
89. Yu, W. -d., and Skibniewski, M. J. (2010). " Integrating neurofuzzy system with conceptual cost estimation to discover cost-related knowledge from residential construction projects.." J. Comput. Civ. Eng. JCCEE5 0887-3801, 24 (1), 35-44. 10.1061/(ASCE)0887-3801(2010)24:1(35)
90. Yu, W. -D. (2007). " Hybrid soft computing approach for mining of complex construction databases.." J. Comput. Civ. Eng. JCCEE5 0887-3801, 21 (5), 343-352. 10.1061/(ASCE)0887-3801(2007)21:5(343) (Pubitemid 47258909)
91. Yu, W. -D., and Skibniewski, M. J. (1999). " Quantitative constructability analysis with a neuro-fuzzy knowledge-based multi-criterion decision support system.." Autom. Constr. AUCOES 0926-5805, 8 (5), 553-565. 10.1016/S0926-5805(98)00105-8
92. Zadeh, L. A. (1986). " Commonsense reasoning based on fuzzy logic.." The IEEE 1986 Winter Simulation Conf., IEEE, Piscataway, N.J.
93. Zadeh, L. A. (1988). " Fuzzy logic.." IEEE Computer, 21, 83-93.
94. Zhao, Z., He, W., and Fan, S. C. (2001). " Preliminary design system for concrete box girder bridges.." J. Comput. Civ. Eng. JCCEE5 0887-3801, 15 (3), 184-192. 10.1061/(ASCE)0887-3801(2001)15:3(184) (Pubitemid 32583197)