The Dayton dilemma

Survival

Volumn 52, Issue 5, 2010, Pages 47-74

  Chivvis, Christopher S ^a  

^a JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY   (United States)

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[No Author keywords available]

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EID: 77957795458     PISSN: 00396338     EISSN: 14682699     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2010.522096     Document Type: Article

References (87)

1. The exact figures have been disputed, but most now agree that a total of roughly 100,000 people died, approximately half of whom were civilians. See Ewa Tabeau and Jakub Bijak, War-related Deaths in the 1992-1995 Armed Conflicts in Bosnia and Herzegovina: A Critique of Previous Estimates and Recent Results', European Journal of Population, vol. 21, 2005, pp. 187-215.
2. On the run-up to Dayton see Derek Chollet, The Road to Dayton Accords (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2005).
3. On Dayton see Richard Holbrooke, To End a War (New York: Random House, 1998).
4. See also Dana Allin, NATO's Balkan Interventions (Abingdon: Routledge, 2002).
5. James Dobbins et al., America's Role in Nation Building (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2003), pp. xvii-xix.
6. On the exit strategy see Gideon Rose, The Exit Strategy Delusion', Foreign Affairs, vol. 77, no. 1, January-February 1998, http://www. foreignaffairs.com/articles/53602/gideon-rose/the-exit-strategy-delusion.
7. Interview with former US official, Washington DC, 3 June 2010.
8. Interview with former US official, Washington DC, 3 June 2010.
9. Municipal elections, originally slated to take place prior to national elections, were in fact postponed. Arguably, this was a mistake given that had they been held, the international com- munity would have recognised more quickly the grip the nationalists still had on power and might have post- poned the national elections. Interview with former US official, Washington DC, 2 August 2010.
10. See Political Declaration from Ministerial Meeting of the Steering Board of the Peace Implementation Council', 30 May 1997. All Peace Implementation Council declarations are available at http://www.ohr.int.
11. Madeleine Albright, 'Remarks on Bosnia before the Fleet Week Gala', New York, 22 May 1997.
12. Not Giving Up on Bosnia', New York Times, 24 May 1997, section 1, p. 18
13. Catching War Criminals in Bosnia', New York Times, 11 July 1997, section A, p. 26
14. Mike O'Conner, NATO Plans to Disarm Paramilitary Forces in Bosnia', New York Times, 9 August 1997, section 1, p. 3.
15. Madeleine Albright, Madam Secretary (New York: Miramax Books, 2003), p. 271.
16. Interview with former US official, Washington DC, 3 June 2010.
17. Albright, Madam Secretary, p. 270.
18. Interview with former US official, Washington DC, 3 June 2010.
19. See Stephen D. Krasner, 'Sharing Sovereignty: New Institutions for Collapsed and Failing States', International Security, vol. 29, no. 2, Fall 2004, pp. 85-120
20. James D. Fearon and David D. Laitin, 'Neotrusteeship and the Problem of Weak States', International Security, vol. 28, no. 4, Spring 2004, pp. 5-43
21. Valery Perry, 'Shepherding Sovereignty: Slow Democratization in Bosnia and Herzegovina', SAIS Bologna Journal of International Affairs, vol. 10, Spring 2007, pp. 75-87.
22. Dayton Peace Accords, Annex 7. See http://www.ohr.int.
23. Roberto Belloni, State Building and International Intervention in Bosnia (Abingdon: Routledge, 2008), p. 23.
24. As of 2010, anecdotal evidence has indicated significant improvements in particular areas along the entity boundary line, but the overall picture was not positive, and the official fig- ures are widely believed to exaggerate the number of returnees, especially since they do not account for those who returned home only to sell their property and move away again to places they felt more welcome. For a positive picture of inter-ethnic rela- tions in the town of Doboj, see A Bosnian Fortress: Return, Energy and the Future of Bosnia', European Stability Initiative, 19 December 2007, http://www.esiweb.org/pdf/esi_document_id_100.pdf.
25. Interview with former senior US official, Washington DC, 15 June 2010.
26. Interview with former High Representative Wolfgang Petritsch.
27. Interview with former US official close to the negotiations, Washington DC, 3 June 2010.
28. For more detail see International Crisis Group, Turning Strife to Advantage, Balkans Report no.106 (Brussels: ICG, 15 March 2001).
29. Interview with former senior US official, Washington DC, 15 June 2010.
30. Interview with former High Representative Wolfgang Petritsch, via telephone from Washington to Brussels, 17 June 2010.
31. See Paddy Ashdown, What I Learned in Bosnia', New York Times, 28 October 2002, http://www.nytimes.com/2002/10/28/opinion/what-i-learned-in-bosnia.html.
32. Interview with former senior US official, Washington DC, 21 June 2010.
33. Interview with Paddy Ashdown, via telephone from Washington to London, 3 June 2010.
34. Interview with former senior US official, 11 June 2010.
35. As described in Stefano Recchia, 'Beyond International Trusteeship: EU Peace-building in Bosnia and Herzegovina', EUISS Occasional Paper, no. 66, February 2007. For a US view on the importance of EU integration for Bosnia.
36. James C. O'Brien, Brussels: Next Capital of the Balkans?', Washington Quarterly, vol. 29, no. 3, Summer 2006, pp. 71-87.
37. Paddy Ashdown, Swords and Ploughshares (London: Orion Books, 2008), p. 217.
38. Interview with Paddy Ashdown.
39. Ashdown, Swords and Ploughshares, pp. 228-9.
40. Interview with former senior US official, 11 June 2010.
41. Peter Andreas, 'The Clandestine Political Economy of War and Peace in Bosnia', International Studies Quarterly, vol. 48, no. 1, 2004, pp. 29-51.
42. See also Michael Pugh, Rubbing Salt into War Wounds', Problems of Post-Communism, vol. 51, no. 3, May-June 2004, pp. 53-60.
43. Interview with former senior US official, 11 June 2010.
44. World Bank, Bosnia and Herzegovina: Post-Conflict Reconstruction and the Transition to a Market Economy', 2004, available at http://www.worldbank.org/oed.
45. Interview with former US official close to the negotiations, Washington DC, 3 June 2010.
46. On the slow progress of civil society since the war see Adam Fagan, 'Civil Society in Bosnia Ten Years after Dayton', International Peacekeeping, vol. 12, no. 3, October 2005, pp. 406-19.
47. Ashdown, Swords and Ploughshares, 248ff.
48. Interview with former senior US official, 11 June 2010.
49. Interview with former senior US official, 11 June 2010
50. Ashdown, Swords and Ploughshares, pp. 293-4.
51. See Tija Memisevic, EU Conditionality in Bosnia and Herzegovina: Police Reform and the Legacy of War Crimes' in Judy Batt and Jelena Obradovic-Wochnik (eds), War Crimes, Conditionality and EU Integration in the Western Balkans, Chaillot Paper no. 116, June 2009, pp. 49-66.
52. Interview with senior Bosnian Serb Official, Banja Luka, October 2009.
53. Interview with former senior US official in Bosnia, 11 June 2010.
54. International Crisis Group, Ensuring Bosnia's Future, Europe Report no. 180 (Brussels: ICG, 15 February 2007), p. 7.
55. Interview with former senior US official, Washington DC, 9 June 2010
56. Interview with former senior US official in Bosnia, 11 June 2010
57. ICG, Ensuring Bosnia's Future, p. 7.
58. Interview with former senior US official, Washington DC, 9 June 2010.
59. Interview with former senior US official, Washington DC, 9 June 2010.
60. See Gerald Knaus and Felix Martin, 'Travails of the European Raj', Journal of Democracy, vol. 14, no. 3, July 2003, pp. 60-74
61. Interview with former senior international official, 17 June 2010.
62. See also Timothy Donais, The Political Economy of Peacebuilding in Post-Dayton Bosnia (Abingdon: Routledge, 2005), p. 83.
63. Don Hays worked out of the US Institute for Peace in Washington.
64. On constitutional reform options see ICG, Ensuring Bosnia's Future. For a more extensive description see Governance Structures in Bosnia Herzegovina: Capacity Ownership, EU Integration, and Functioning State (Sarajevo: Foreign Policy Initiative BH, 2007), available at http://www.vpi.ba.
65. On the chances of a return to violence see Christopher S. Chivvis, 'Back to the Brink in Bosnia?', Survival, vol. 52, no. 1, 2010, pp. 97-110.
66. This privatisation programme included the sale of the state oil monopoly to Russian investors in early 2007. See Olja Stanic, 'Russia Buys Bosnia Oil Industries for 121 mln Euros', Reuters.com, 2 February 2007.
67. Interview with Croatian parliamentary leadership, Sarajevo, October 2010.
68. Dusan Reljic, The West Balkans between the EU, the USA, and Russia', SWP Comments, August 2009, http:// www.swp-berlin.org/en/common/get_document.php?asset_id=6255.
69. Interview with Paddy Ashdown, via telephone from Washington to London, 3 June 2010.
70. US Vice President Joe Biden, 'Address to the Parliament of Bosnia and Herzegovina', Sarajevo, 19 May 2009.
71. On this issue see Christopher S. Chivvis and Harun Dogo, 'Getting Back on Track in Bosnia-Herzegovina', Washington Quarterly, vol. 33, no. 4, October 2010, pp. 103-18.
72. Nikola Krastev, UN Envoy Warns Of Growing Tensions In Bosnia', Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 25 May 2010, http://www.rferl.org/content/UN_Representative_Warns_Of_Growing_Tensions_In_BosniaHerzegovina/2052060.html.
73. See, for example, the pessimism expressed at a roundtable held by the United States Institute of Peace, reported in Kurt Bassuener and James Lyon, Unfinished Business in Bosnia and Herzegovina: What Is To Be Done?', USIPeace Briefing, May 2009, http://www.usip.org/files/resources/UnfinishedBusinessinBosniaandHerzegovina.pdf
74. A Tearing Sound', Economist, 2 April 2009
75. ICG, Ensuring Bosnia's Future, p. 29
76. Patrice C. McMahon and Jon Western, The Death of Dayton', Foreign Affairs, vol. 88, no. 5, September-October 2009, pp. 69-83.
77. Unpublished National Democratic Institute figures. See also Mareco Index Bosnia, BiH Gallup international 'BiH Political Monitor'.
78. Milan Cuc, Bosnia and Herzegovina: On the Road to EU Accession', IMF Survey Magazine, 12 November 2008, at: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2008/CAR111208A.htm.
79. See United Nations Development Programme, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Early Warning System: Annual Report 2008, http://www.undp.ba/upload/publications/EWSAnnual2008E-webedition.pdf.
80. Serbia's rate was 6.6%, but direct comparisons are not possible due to significant differences in measurement. World Bank, Bosnia and Herzegovina Country Brief 2009', available at http://go.worldbank.org/71AT82BD10.
81. On Yugoslavia prior to the war see John Lampe, Yugoslavia as History (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996).
82. On schools see Valery Perry, 'Democratization in Brcko and Bosnia', in Michael Innes (ed.), Bosnian Security After Dayton: New Perspectives (Abingdon: Routledge, 2006), pp. 51-70
83. Aida Cerkez-Robinson, 'Bosnia's Ethnic Divisions are Evident in Schools', Washington Post, 23 August 2009.
84. Interview with former OSCE Head of Mission, Washington DC, 18 May 2010.
85. George Kennan, Memoirs 1925-1950 (New York: Pantheon Books, 1967), p. 275.
86. Edmund Burke, Reflections on the Revolution in France (London, 1790)
87. Friedrich A. Hayek, The Road to Serfdom (London: Routledge, 1944).