Strategic recovery? the conservatives under David Cameron

Parliamentary Affairs

Volumn 63, Issue 4, 2010, Pages 667-688

  Green, Jane ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MANCHESTER   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 77957128917     PISSN: 00312290     EISSN: 14602482     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1093/pa/gsq027     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. In the British Election Study pre-election in person survey (first beta release), 46% said they were still undecided who to vote for.
2. See B. Sá rlvik and I. Crewe, Decade of Dealignment: The Conservative Victory of 1979 and Electoral Trends in the 1970s, Cambridge University Press, 1983;
3. D. Granberg and S. Holmberg, The Political System Matters: Social Psychology and Voting Behaviour in Sweden and the United States, European Monographs in Social Psychology, Cambridge University Press, 1988.
4. G. Evans, 'Economics and Politics Revisited: Exploring the Decline in Conservative Support, 1992- 1995', Political Studies, XLVII, 1999, 139-151
5. Clause IV was the commitment in Labour's constitution to the common ownership of the means of production, which Tony Blair finally removed in 1994 in a symbolic expression of Labour's moderation and modernisation.
6. Sir Malcolm Rifkind and Alan Duncan both announced their intention to run, but withdrew before the ballot once it became clear they had insufficient support.
7. J. Petrocik, 'Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study', American Journal of Political Science, 40, 1996, 825-850
8. David Cameron 2005 Conservative Party Leadership Speech, accessed from http://www.guardian.co. uk/politics/2005/oct/04/conservatives2005. conservatives3.
9. P. Whiteley, J. Richardson and P. Seyd, True Blues: The Politics of Conservative Party Membership, Clarendon Press, 1994.
10. H. Clarke, D. Sanders, M. Stewart and P. Whiteley, Performance Politics and the British Voter, Cambridge University Press, 2009.
11. H. Clarke, D. Sanders, M. Stewart and P. Whiteley, Performance Politics and the British Voter, Cambridge University Press, 2009, Chapter 3.
12. D. Butler and D. Kavanagh, The British General Election of 2001, Palgrave, 2001.
13. There was one important mostly unseen change which built on the work done by Iain Duncan-Smith. The Conservative party adopted a far more social action oriented approach and philosophy in the years in opposition, with candidates and MPs getting involved in a broad range of hands-on projects, including projects overseas, as part of a commitment to international aid. The culture of the Conservative parliamentary party, in this respect, had certainly changed, and changed significantly.
14. David Cameron, This Sterile Fixation with Grammar Schools is a Dead End, Times 22 May 2007.
15. http://page.politicshome.com/uk/voters-expect-tory-government-to-raise- taxes.html.
16. P. Converse, 'The Concept of a Normal Vote', in A. Campbell, P. Converse, W. Miller and D. Stokes (eds), Elections and the Political Order, Wiley, 1966.
17. R. Johnston and C. Pattie, 'Representative Democracy and Electoral Geography', in J. Agnew, K. Mitchell, G. Thathail and G. Toal (eds), A Companion to Political Geography, Blackwell, 2003;
18. G. Cox, Swing Voters, Core Voters and Distributive Politics. Paper presented at the Yale Conference on Representation and Popular Rule, 2006.
19. M. Fiorina, Retrospective Voting in American National Elections, Yale University Press, 1981.
20. See: Campbell, Angus, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller and Donald E. Stokes, The American Voter, University of Chicago Press, 1976.
21. G. Evans, 'Economics and Politics Revisited: Exploring the Decline in Conservative Support, 1992- 1995', Political Studies, XLVII, 1999, 139-151
22. P. Cowley and J. Green, 'New Leaders, Same Problems: The Conservatives', in A. Geddes and J. Tonge (eds), Britain Decides: The UK General Election 2005, Palgrave Macmillan, 2005.
23. See D. Denver, Elections and Voters in Britain, Palgrave Macmillan, 2003.
24. D. Butler and D. Stokes, Political Change in Britain: Forces Shaping Electoral Choice, Macmillan, 1969.
25. The post-election average thermometer ratings, for the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties were 4.5, 4.2 and 5.3, respectively (BES post-election internet survey), suggesting that the Conservatives were less liked following their 2010 campaign (those waves in which the question was asked. The 2010 pre-election BES was fielded before the leader debates).
26. P. Cowley and J. Green, 'New Leaders, Same Problems: The Conservatives', in A. Geddes and J. Tonge (eds), Britain Decides: The UK General Election 2005, Palgrave Macmillan, 2005. The satisfaction question is, 'Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way (David Cameron) is doing his job as Leader of the Opposition?'.
27. G. Evans and R. Andersen, 'Who Blairs Wins? Leadership and Voting in the 2001 General Election', British Elections and Parties Review, 13, 2003, 229-247
28. As the election neared, Gordon Brown's net satisfaction-dissatisfaction score was 224, but this was an improvement on a low of 251 in July 2008 and it was trending upwards from May 2009 (243).
29. H. Clarke, D. Sanders, M. Stewart and P. Whiteley, Performance Politics and the British Voter, Cambridge University Press, 2009.
30. J. Petrocik, 'Issue Ownership in Presidential Elections, with a 1980 Case Study', American Journal of Political Science, 40, 1996, 825-850
31. See J. Green and S. Hobolt, 'Owning the Issue Agenda: Explaining Party Strategies in British General Election Campaigns', Electoral Studies, 27, 2008, 460-476
32. Note that the proportion listing the Conservatives as the best party on the most important issue in the 2010 post-election British Election Study (internet) was 27.4% whereas for Labour the proportion was 21.7%. The proportions for the Liberal Democrats and 'no party' were 11.7 and 27.1%, respectively.
33. I. Budge and D. Farlie, Voting and Party Competition: A Theoretical Critique and Synthesis Applied to Surveys from Ten Democracies, Wiley, 1977.
34. See Ipsos-MORI data: http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchspecialisms/ socialresearch/specareas/ politics/trends.aspx.
35. This was motivated by two factors: first, to campaign on immigration risked positioning the Conservative party on the right-the very problem David Cameron wanted to avoid. Second, the threat of a surge in British National Party support meant that all mainstream parties mostly avoided the issue.
36. A. Downs, An Economic Theory of Democracy, Harper & Row, 1957.
37. D. Stokes, 'Spatial Models of Party Competition' The American Political Science Review 57, 1963, 368-77;
38. J. Green, Jane, 'When Voters and Parties Agree: Valence Issues and Party Competition', Political Studies, 55, 2007, 629-55;
39. H. Clarke, D. Sanders, M. Stewart and P. Whiteley, Performance Politics and the British Voter, Cambridge University Press, 2009.
40. J. Enelow and M. Hinich, The Spatial Theory of Voting: An Introduction, Cambridge University Press, 1984, in Hinich, m. Melvin J. and Michael C. Munger (eds), Analytical Politics, Cambridge University Press, 1997.
41. In a question in the British Election Studies, 23.4% of survey respondents in 2005 agreed there was 'a great deal of difference between the main parties', whereas 84.6% agreed with the statement during Margaret Thatcher's leadership in 1987. These figures closely correspond with respondent placements of the two main parties on different policy scales.
42. The oft-cited quotation by Margaret Thatcher, argued to have been removed from context, Woman's Own, 23 September 1987.
43. Source: http://www.bes2009-10.org/.
44. David Cameron 2005 Conservative Party Leadership Speech, accessed from http://www.guardian.co. uk/politics/2005/oct/04/conservatives2005. conservatives3.