The Rise of Chinese Power and the Implications for the Regional Security Order

Orbis

Volumn 54, Issue 4, 2010, Pages 525-545

  Ross, Robert S ^a  

^a Center for Chinese Studies   (China)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 77956905323     PISSN: 00304387     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.orbis.2010.07.003     Document Type: Article

References (101)

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13. For a comprehensive discussion of Chinese ground force modernization, see Dennis J. Blasko, The Chinese Army Today (New York: Routledge, 2004).
14. Also see Dennis J. Blasko, "The New PLA Force Structure," in James C. Mulvenon and Richard H. Yang, eds., The People's Liberation Army in the Information Age (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 1999), pp. 263-270;
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19. Joel S. Wit, Daniel B. Poneman, and Robert L. Gallucci, Going Critical: The First North Korean Nuclear Crisis (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 2004), pp. 196-200.
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26. Thom Shanker, "Rumsfeld Reassures Seoul on Regrouping G.I.'s," New York Times, (November 18, 2003), p. 10;
27. Thom Shanker, "Pentagon Weighs Transferring 4,000 G.I.'s in Korea to Iraq," New York Times, (May 17, 2004), p. 11;
28. James Brook and Thom Shanker, "U.S. Plans to Cut Third of Troops in South Korea," New York Times, (June 8, 2004), p.1;
29. Thom Shanker and David E. Sanger, "U.S. Defends Plan to Reduce Forces in South Korea," New York Times, (June 9, 2004), p. 12.
30. Korea Times, (, 2005), accessed at http://www.search.hankooki.com/times/times_view.php?terms=%22yoon+code%3A+ktpath=hankooki3%2Ftimes%2Flpage%2F200504%2Fkt2005040716314810230.htm., April 7
31. 2002 trade statistics are from the Taiwan Board of Foreign Trade; Central News Agency, Taiwan, CNA, (September 15, FBIS, CPP20020915000025, Central News Agency, (September 28, FBIS, CPP20020928000044; CNA, (August 7, FBIS, CPP20020807000167; Financial Times Global Newswire, (February 23,2002),2002), 2002) 2004), accessed at http://www.80-web.lexis-nexis.com.ezp2.harvard.edu/universe/document?_m=3d0c9141ea8048ef33dabe367041fe7e&_docnum=10&wchp=dGLbVzb-zSkVA&_md5=237e75483e439ca7f083c6c74c8ac65b.
32. The investment statistics are in CNA, (August 7, FBIS, CPP20020807000167; Central News Agency, (October 21,2002),2002),
33. FBIS, CPP20021022000004; Zhongguo Xinwenshe, (January 3, FBIS, CPP20040103000056. 2004)
34. Republic of China Ministry of Finance, Taiwan's figures tend to under-calculate its exports from third countries to China. accessed at http://www.mof.gov.tw/public/data/statistic/trade/9050.htm.
35. International Trade Commission, U.S.-Taiwan FTA: Likely Economic Impact of a Free Trade Agreement Between the United States and Taiwan (Washington, D.C.: International Trade Commission of the United States, For a similar conclusion, see Nicholas R. Lardy and Daniel H. Rosen, Prospects for a U.S.-Taiwan Trade Agreement (Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics, 2002), accessed at http://www.usitc.gov/wais/reports/arc/w3548.htm.2004).
36. For a discussion of the cross-strait trade benefits of the agreement for Taiwan as well as the minimal benefit of the agreement for Taiwan's trade with Southeast Asia, see Daniel H. Rosen and Zhi Wang, "Deepening China-Taiwan Relations through the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement," Policy Brief, no. PB10-16, Petersen Institute for International Economics, (June 2010), at http://www.iie.com/publications/pb/pb10-16.pdf.
37. Central News Agency, (July 4, FBIS, CPP20060704968052; Editorial, Taipei Times, (June 13, 2006)2004), accessed at http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/edit/arhives/2004/06/13/2003174891;
38. Central News Agency, (August 7, FBIS, CPP20020807000167; Central News Agency, (October 21, FBIS, CPP20021022000004; Zhongguo Xinwenshe, (January 3, FBIS, CPP20040103000056; Government Approves TSMC's Wafer Project," China Post, (May 1,2002),2002),2004), 2004);
39. Zhongguo Xinwen She,2004), FBIS, CPP20040228000102; Renmin Ribao, (December 26, February 18,in FBIS, CPP20031226000049; Taipei Times, January 6, in FBIS, CPP2004010600014520042004),.
40. T.Y. Wang, "Lifting the 'No Haste, Be Patient' Policy: Implications for Cross-Strait Relations," Cambridge Review of International Affairs, vol. 15, no. 1 (2002), pp. 131-139;
41. Sheng Lijun, China and Taiwan: Cross-Strait Relations Under Chen Shui-bian (Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Relations, 2002).
42. For a Taiwan government discussion of the growing danger of dependence, see, for example, Central News Agency, (January 13, in FBIS, CPP20040112000209. 2004),
43. Edward Gargan, "Long-Term Forecast for Taiwan remains Upbeat," New York Times, (March 22, 1996), p. 35;
44. Sheila Tefft, "Taiwan Moves to Restore Shaken Investor Confidence," Christian Science Monitor, (April 1,1996), p. 9;
45. Steven Mufson, "China-Taiwan Conflict 'In Remission, Not Resolved,"' Washington Post, (April 22, 1996), p. 17.
46. U.S. Department of Defense, Annual Report on the Military Power of the People's Republic of China, (2003), p. 5.
47. U.S. Department of Defense, Annual Report on the Military Power of the People's Republic of China (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Defense, 2005), p. 4.
48. On the DF-15, see Shirley A. Kan, China: Ballistic and Cruise Missiles, CRS Report for Congress (97-391 F) (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research Service, Library of Congress, 2000), pp. 11-12.
49. On the survivability of PRC missile launchers, see Alan Vick, et al., Aerospace Operations Against Elusive Ground Targets (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2001).
50. On the intrinsic limitations of missile defense systems in the Taiwan Strait, see James M. Lindsay and Michael E. O'Hanlon, Defending America: The Case for Limited National Missile Defense (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 2001), pp. 123-30
51. On U.S.-Taiwan differences over arms transfers, see Taipei Times, (June 23, 2004), p. 1;
52. Taipei Times, (November 17, 2002), p. 2.
53. "FBIS Report," (September 26, in FBIS, CPP20040926000026; Lilian Wu, "63% Favor Cross-strait Peace Agreement," CNA, (July 22, 2004), 2004)retrieved from Lexis-Nexis at http://www.web.lexis-nexis.com.ezp2.harvard.edu/universe/document?_m=c1bc872511b58baa4015b41d5eed9d00&_docnum=1&wchp=dGLbVtz-zSkVA&_md5=41bd41e5c8a65bf7d2c1d44d4d774b76.
54. On the defense budgets, see CNA, (November 2, in FBIS, CPP20041102000130; "FBIS Report", (October 22, in FBIS, CPP20041022000164; Taipei Times, (September 4, FBIS Report, in FBIS, (October 22, CPP200410220001642003),2004), 2002), http://www.taipeitimes.com/news/2002/09/04/print/0000166702;2004),.
55. Interviews in Taiwan, January, Also see Republic of China Ministry of National Defense, Taiwan Quadrennial Defense Report 2020)2009, accessed at http://www.mnd.gov.tw/QDR/en_menu.htm.
56. See the Taiwan Mainland Affairs Council's line graph of public opinion trends at Taipei Times, (February 10, FBIS, CPP20040210000187; Lilian Wu, "63% Favor Cross-strait Peace Agreement."http://www.mac.gov.tw/english/english/pos/9211/9211e_1.gif; 2004),
57. See the post-election poll results in CNA, (May 7, in FBIS, CPP20040507000051.2004),
58. "Pro-Independence Parties Defeated in Taiwan," New York Times, (December 11, The vote tally is reported in "FBIS Report," December 11, in FBIS, CPP20041211000110.2004). 2004,
59. See the June 2010 TVBS public opinion poll at http://www.taiwansecurity.org/2010/GVMaApproval_Cross-Strait-052510.pdf.
60. The figures are from the Japanese Customs Agency, Ken Belson, "Japanese Capital and Jobs Flowing to China," New York Times, (February 17, IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics., http://www.customs.go.jp/toukei/srch/indexe.htm; 2004)
61. Ken Hijino, Financial Times, (December 15, 2001), p. 9,
62. James Kynge, "Japan, China in 11th-hour Trade Deal, Financial Times, (December 22, 2001), p. 7;
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64. David Ibison, "Koizumi Visits to War Shrine Attacked," Financial Times, (November 26, Asahi Shimbun (English edition), (October 2, 2004)2004).
65. The figures are from the Japanese Ministry of Finance, http://www.mof.go.jp/english/
66. Japan External Trade Organization, at http://www.jetro.go.jp/en/reports/statistics/.
67. For a Chinese discussion of role the Chinese market in the ASEAN economies, see Zhang, Weilai 10-15 Nian Zhongguo zai Taipingyang Diqu Mianlin de Guoji Huanjing, pp. 299-319.
68. Alice D. Ba, "China and ASEAN; Reinvigorating Relations for a 21st Century Asia," Asian Survey, (July-August vol. 43, no. 4 2003), pp. 638-644;
69. Xinhua, ( 2004), FBIS, CPP20040208000018; Peter S. Goodman, "Made in China - With Neighbors' Imports," Washington Post, (February 5, February 8, 2004);
70. Brad Grosserman, "China's Influence in Asia Soars," Japan Times, May 17, For Singapore statistics, see Singapore Department of Statistics, Government of Singapore. Philippine statistics are from Department of Trade and Industry, the Philippines, accessed at 2004. http://www.tradelinephil.dti.gov.ph/betp/trade_stat.expcod_sumprod.
71. IMF, Direction of Trade Statistics.
72. Edward J. Lincoln, East Asian Economic Regionalism (Washington, D.C. Brookings Institution, 55-562004), pp.45-48,
73. Also see Peter Drysdale and Xinpeng Xu, "Taiwan's Role in the Economic Architecture of East Asia and the Pacific," forthcoming. On the 2004 agreement, see Jane Perlez, "Chinese Premier Signs Trade Pact at Southeast Asian Summit," New York Times, (November 30, 2004), p. 9.
74. On China's discussion of whether to build a carrier, see Ian Storey and You Ji, "China's Aircraft Carrier Ambitions: Seeking Truth from Rumors," Naval War College Review, Winter, vol. 57, no. 1 ( 2004), pp. 77-93;
75. Robert S. Ross, "China's Naval Nationalism: Sources, Prospects, and the U.S. Response," International Security, fall vol. 34, no 2 ( 2009), pp. 46-81.
76. U.S. Department of Defense, Quadrennial Defense Review Report (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Defense, 2006).
77. Bernard D. Cole, The Great Wall at Sea: China's Navy Enters the Twenty-First Century (Annapolis: Naval Institute Press, 2001), pp. 97-99;
78. Bernard D. Cole, "The PLA and 'Active Defense,"' in Flanagan and Marti, eds., The People's Liberation Army and China in Transition,pp. 136;
79. Bernard D. Cole, "China's Maritime Strategy," in Puska, ed., The People's Liberation Army, 309 pp. 305
80. Lyle Goldstein and William Murray, "Undersea Dragons: China's Maturing Submarine Force." International Security, Spring vol. 28, no. 42004).
81. For a discussion of these issues, see "Here Be Dragons? - Is China a Military Threat: Myth," The National Interest, September-October, no. 103 (2009), pp. 19-34.
82. The best discussion of the transformation in Japanese defense policy is Christopher Hughes, Japan's Re-emergence as a 'Normal' Military Power, Adelphi Paper, International Institute of Strategic Studies, no. 368-9.
83. See Paul S. Giarra and Akisha Nagashima, "Managing the New U.S.-Japan Security Alliance: Enhancing Structures and Mechanisms to Address Post-Cold War Requirements," in Michael J. Green and Patrick M. Cronin, eds., The U.S.-Japan Alliance: Past, Future and Present (New York: Council on Foreign Relations, 1999).
84. Norimitsu Onishi, "Japan Support of Missile Shield Could Tilt Asia Balance of Power," New York Times, (April 3, 2004), p. 1.
85. Associated Press, (December 16, Also see the interview with the U.S. Consulate General to Okinawa, Okinawa Times, (November 29, 2005).2005).
86. Washington Post, (November 9, 2002), p. 21;
87. James Dao, "Coalition Widens its Ocean Manhunt, New York Times, (March 17, 2002), p. 20;
88. Norimitsu Onishi, "Japan Heads to Iraq, Haunted by Taboo Bred in Another War," New York Times, (November 19, 2003), p. 1.
89. Also see Michael H. Armacost, "Tilting Closer to Washington," in Richard J. Ellings and Aaron L. Friedberg, eds., Strategic Asia 2003-04: Fragility and Crisis (Seattle, WA: National Bureau of Asian Research, 2004), pp. 81-107.
90. Martin Fackler, "Japanese Leader Tells Obama He'll Work to Fulfill Base Pact," New York Times, (June 6,2010).
91. Indonesia National News Agency, (April 21, 2004), accessed at http://www.web.lexis-nexis.com.ezp2.harvard.edu/universe/document?_m=76a4267cd47b791b7b9ebace2d0e930a&_docnum=1&wchp=dGLbVzb-zSkVb&_md5=16a73aef496eedf2b07d0af2b6aa991f;
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93. Although Indonesian acquiescence to U.S. interests is not an example of "balancing," it underscores the impact of superior great power capabilities on secondary state alignment. For coverage of U.S. and allied deployments, see Associated Press, (September 20, Associated Press, (September 22 1999), accessed at http://www.web.lexis-nexis.com.ezp1.harvard.edu/universe/document?_m=57a25bcd92b49f6c74dd9007c4b4cb6a&_docnum=368&wchp=dGLbVtz-zSkVb&_md5=fffecc384e4dbc3df79150490d9baba3; 1999), accessed at http://www.web.lexis-nexis.com.ezp1.harvard.edu/universe/document?_m=b9183fff6609e74faa289e5e64bcee6c&_docnum=325&wchp=dGLbVtz-zSkVb&_md5=9c7d6ea484c508c28c1ec1e0b978cac8;
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