Modeling path dependence in agricultural adaptation to climate variability and change

Annals of the Association of American Geographers

Volumn 100, Issue 4, 2010, Pages 894-907

  Chhetri, Netra B ^a   Easterling, William E ^b   Terando, Adam ^c   Mearns, Linda ^d  

^a ARIZONA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^d NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

Author keywords

Adaptation; Agriculture; Climate change and variability; Path dependence; Southeast united states

Indexed keywords

ADAPTATION; AGRICULTURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE MODELING; CLIMATE VARIATION; CROP YIELD; DIFFUSION; GLOBAL CLIMATE; MAIZE; REGIONAL CLIMATE; RISK ASSESSMENT;

UNITED STATES;

ZEA MAYS;

EID: 77956793751     PISSN: 00045608     EISSN: 14678306     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/00045608.2010.500547     Document Type: Article

References (34)

1. Antle, J. M., S. M. Capalbo, E. T. Elliott, and K. H. Paustin. 2004. Adaptation, spatial heterogeneity, and the vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate change and CO2 fertilization: An integrated assessment approach. Climatic Change 64 (3): 289-315.
2. Arthur, W. B. 1989. Competing technologies, increasing returns, and "lock-in" by historical events. The Economic Journal 99 (394): 116-31.
3. Berkhout, F. 2002. Technological regimes, path dependency and the environment. Global Environmental Change 12 (1): 1-4.
4. Cowan, R., and P. Gunby. 1996. Sprayed to death: Path dependence, lock-in and pest control strategies. Economic Journal 106 (436): 521-42.
5. David, P. 1985. Clio and the economics of QWERTY. American Economic Review 75 (3): 332-37.
6. Dosi,G.1984.Technicalchangeandinstitutionaltransformation. London: Macmillan.
7. Easterling, W. E., N. Chhetri, and X. Z. Niu. 2003. Improving the realism of modeling agronomic adaptation to climate change: Simulating technological substitution. Climatic Change 60 (1-2): 149-73.
8. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. 2005. Food outlook no. 4-December 2005. Rome, Italy: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
9. Håkansson, H., and A. Waluszewski. 2002. Path dependence: Restricting or facilitating technical development? Journal of Business Research 55 (7): 561-70.
10. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007. Summary for policymakers. In Climate change 2007: The physicalsciencebasis.ContributionofWorkingGroupIto the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, ed. S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z.Chen, M.Marquis,K.B.Averyt,M.Tignor, and H. L. Miller. New York: Cambridge University Press.
11. Kemp, R. 2000. Technology and environmental policy- Innovation effects of past policies and suggestions for improvement. Paper presented at OECD Workshop on Innovation and Environment, 19 June, Paris.
12. Liebowitz, S. J., and S. E. Margolis. 1995. Path dependence, lock in, and history. Journal of Law, Economics and Organization 11 (1): 205-26.
13. MacCracken, M. C., E. J. Barron, D. R. Easterling, B. S. Felzer,andT.R.Karl.2003.Climatechangescenariosfor the U.S. National Assessment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 84 (12): 1711-23.
14. Martin, R., and P. Sunley. 2006. Path dependence and regional economic evolution. Journal of Economic Geography 6 (4): 395-437.
15. McGuire, S. J. 2008. Path-dependency in plant breeding: Challenges facing participatory reforms in the Ethiopian Sorghum Improvement Program. Agricultural Systems 96 (1-3): 139-49.
16. Mearns, L. O. 1995. Research issues in determining the effects of changing climate variability on crop yields. In Climate change and agriculture: Analysis of potential international impacts, ed. C. Rosenzweig, J. T. Ritchie, and J. W. Jones, 123-46. Madison, WI: American Society of Agronomy.
17. Mearns, L. O., F. Giorgi, L. McDaniel, and C. Shields. 2003. Climate scenarios for the southeastern U.S. based on GCM and regional model simulations. Climatic Change 60 (1-2): 7-35.
18. Mearns,L.O.,C.Rosenzweig,andR.Goldberg. 1996. The effect of changes indailyandinterannual climatic variability on ceres-wheat: A sensitivity study. Climatic Change 32 (3): 257-92.
19. Mearns,L.O.,C.Rosenzweig,andR.Goldberg. 1997. Mean and variance change in climate scenarios: Methods, agricultural applications, and measures of uncertainty. Climatic Change 35 (4): 367-96.
20. Nelson, R. R., and S. G. Winter. 1982. An evolutionary theory of economic change. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
21. North, D. C. 1990. Institutions, institutional change and economic performance. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
22. Pardey, P. G., and N. M. Beintema. 2001. Slow magic agricultural: R&D a century after Mendel. International Food Policy Research Institute Report. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.
23. Rosenzweig, C., F. N. Tubiello, R. A. Goldberg, E. Mills, and J. Bloomfield. 2002. Increased crop damage in the US from excess precipitation under climate change. Global Environmental Change 12 (3): 197-202.
24. Ruttan, V. 1996. Induced innovation and path dependence: A reassessment with respect to agricultural development and the environment. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 53:41-59.
25. Ruttan, V. 2005. Scientific and technical constraints on agricultural production: Prospects for the future. Proceeding of the American Philosophical Society 149 (4): 453-468.
26. Schneider, S. H., W. E. Easterling, and L. O. Mearns, 2000. Adaptation: Sensitivity to natural variability, agent assumptions and dynamic climate changes. Climatic Change 45 (1): 203-221.
27. Setterfield, M. 1993. A model of institutional hysteresis. Journal of Economic Issues 27 (3): 755-774.
28. Stainforth, D. A., T. Aina, C. Christensen, M. Collins, D. J. Frame, J. A. Kettleborough, S. Knight et al. 2005. Uncertainty in predictions of the climate response to rising levels of greenhouse gases. Nature 433 (7024): 403-406
29. Vanloqueren, G., and P. V. Baret. 2008. Why are ecological, low-input, multi-resistant wheat cultivars slow to develop commercially? A Belgian agricultural "lock-in" case study. Ecological Economics 66 (3): 436-46.
30. Vanloqueren, G., and P. V. Baret. 2009. How agricultural research systems shape a technological regime that develops genetic engineering but locks out agroecological innovations. Research Policy 38 (6): 971-83.
31. von Braun, J. 2007. The world food situation: New driving forces and required actions. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.
32. Wheeler, T. R., P. Q. Craufurd, R. H. Ellis, J. R. Porter, and P. V. Vara Prasad. 2000. Temperature variability and the yield of annual crops. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 82:159-67.
33. Williams, J. R., C. A. Jones, and P. T. Dyke. 1984. The EPICmodelanditsapplication.In Proceedings ICRISATIBSNAT-SYS Symposium on Minimum Data Sets for Agrotechnology Transfer, ed. ICRISAT-IB-SNAT-SYS, 111-121. Hyderabad, India.
34. Wilson, C., and C. Tisdell. 2001. Why farmers continue to use pesticides despite environmental, health and sustainability costs. Ecological Economics 39 (3): 449-62.