Sensitivity of ozone to precursor emissions in urban Beijing with a Monte Carlo scheme

Atmospheric Environment

Volumn 44, Issue 31, 2010, Pages 3833-3842

  Tang, Xiao ^a,b   Wang, Zifa ^a   Zhu, Jiang ^a   Gbaguidi, Alex E ^a   Wu, Qizhong ^a,b   Li, Jie ^a   Zhu, Tong ^c  

^a INSTITUTE OF ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS   (China)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES   (China)

^c PEKING UNIVERSITY   (China)

Author keywords

Beijing; Emissions; Monte Carlo method; Ozone control strategy; Sensitivity analysis

Indexed keywords

AIR QUALITY PREDICTION; BEIJING; EMISSIONS; FORMATION MECHANISM; INHIBITORY EFFECT; LIMITED SENSITIVITY; LOG-NORMAL; MONTE CARLO; MONTE CARLO SCHEMES; MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSIONS; NOX EMISSIONS; OZONE CONTROL STRATEGY; OZONE FORMATION; PHOTOCHEMICAL SMOG; REVERSE EFFECTS; SATURATED CONDITIONS; STANDARD DEVIATION; SURFACE OZONE;

AIR QUALITY; COMPUTER SIMULATION; ETHYLENE; GAS EMISSIONS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; MONTE CARLO METHODS; NITROGEN OXIDES; OZONE; REDUCTION;

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS;

ALKENE DERIVATIVE; ETHYLBENZENE; ETHYLENE; FORMALDEHYDE; OZONE; PROPYLENE; TOLUENE;

AIR QUALITY; EMISSION CONTROL; FORMALDEHYDE; HYDROCARBON; INHIBITOR; MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS; NITROGEN COMPOUND; NUMERICAL MODEL; OZONE; PHOTOCHEMISTRY; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; SMOG; URBAN AREA;

ARTICLE; COMPUTER SIMULATION; FIELD EMISSION; MONTE CARLO METHOD; POLLUTION; PRIORITY JOURNAL; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; URBAN AREA;

BEIJING [CHINA]; CHINA;

EID: 77955843945     PISSN: 13522310     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.06.026     Document Type: Article

References (36)

1. Chan C.K., Yao X. Air pollution in mega cities in China. Atmos. Environ. 2008, 42(1):1-42.
2. Chang J.S., Brost R.A., Isaksen I.S.A., Madronich S., Middleton P., Stockwell W.R., Walcek C.J. A three-dimensional Eulerian acid deposition model: physical concepts and formulation. J. Geophys. Res. 1987, 92(D12):14681-14700.
3. Chou C.C.K., Tsai C.Y., Shiu C.J., Liu S.C., Zhu T. Measurement of NOy during campaign of air quality research in Beijing 2006 (CAREBeijing-2006): implications for the ozone production efficiency of NOx. J. Geophys. Res. 2009, 114(D00G01). 10.1029/2008JD010446.
4. Cohan D.S., Hakami A., Hu Y.T., Russell A.G. Nonlinear response of ozone to emissions: source apportionment and sensitivity analysis. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2005, 39(17):6739-6748.
5. Grell, G.A., Dudhia, J., Stauffer, D.R., 1994. A description of the fifth-generation Penn State/NCAR mesoscale model (MM5). NCAR Technical Note, NCAR/TN-398 + STR, 117 pp.
6. Grewe V. Technical note: a diagnostic for ozone contributions of various NOx emissions in multi-decadel chemistry-climate model simulations. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2004, 4:729-736.
7. Hakami A., Odman M.T., Russel A.G. High-order, direct sensitivity analysis of multidimensional air quality models. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2003, 37:2442-2452.
8. Hanna S.R., Chang J.C., Fernau M.E. Monte Carlo estimates of uncertainties in predictions by a photochemical grid model (UAM-IV) due to uncertainties in input variables. Atmos. Environ. 1998, 32(21):3619-3628.
9. Hanna S.R., Lu Z.G., Frey H.C., Wheeler N., Vukovich J., Arunachalam S., Fernau M., Hansen D.A. Uncertainties in predicted ozone concentrations due to input uncertainties for the UAM-V photochemical grid model applied to the July 1995 OTAG domain. Atmos. Environ. 2001, 35(5):891-903.
10. Hao J.M., Wang L.T., Shen M.J., Li L., Hu J.N. Air quality impacts of power plant emissions in Beijing. Environ. Pollut. 2007, 147(2):401-408.
11. Helton J.C., Davis F.J. Latin hypercube sampling and the propagation of uncertainty in analyses of complex systems. Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf. 2003, 81(1):23-69.
12. Houyoux M.R., Vukovich J.M., Coats C.J., Wheeler N.J.M., Kasibhatla P.S. Emission inventory development and processing for the Seasonal Model for Regional Air Quality (SMRAQ) project. J. Geophys. Res. 2000, 105(D7):9079-9090.
13. Kleinman L.I., Daum P.H., Lee Y.N., Nunnermacker L.J., Springston S.R., Weinstein-Lloyd J., Rudolph J. Sensitivity of ozone production rate to ozone precursors. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2001, 28(15):2903-2906.
14. Lei W., de Foy B., Zavala M., Volkamer R., Molina L.T. Characterizing ozone production in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area: a case study using a chemical transport model. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2007, 7:1347-1366.
15. Li J., Wang Z.F., Akimoto H., Gao C., Pochanart P., Wang X.Q. Modeling study of ozone seasonal cycle in lower troposphere over East Asia. J. Geophys. Res. 2007, 112(D22). 10.1029/2006JD008209.
16. Liu Y., Shao M., Zhang J., Fu L.L., Lu S.H. Distributions and source apportionment of ambient volatile organic compounds in Beijing City, China. J. Environ. Sci. Health A 2005, 40(10):1843-1860.
17. Liu Y., Shao M., Fu L.L., Lu S.H., Zeng L.M., Tang D.G. Source profiles of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) measured in China: Part I. Atmos. Environ. 2008, 42(25):6247-6260.
18. Napelenok S.L., Cohan D.S., Hu Y.T., Russell A.G. Decoupled direct 3D sensitivity analysis for particulate matter (DDM-3D/PM). Atmos. Environ. 2006, 40(32):6112-6121.
19. Pryor S.C. A case study of emission changes and ozone responses. Atmos. Environ. 1998, 32(2):123-131.
20. Shao M., Lu S.H., Liu Y., Xie X., Chang C.C., Huang S., Chen Z.M. Volatile organic compounds measured in summer in Beijing and their role in ground-level ozone formation. J. Geophys. Res. 2009, 114(D00G06). 10.1029/2008JD010863.
21. Sillman S. The relation between ozone, NOx and hydrocarbons in urban and polluted rural environments. Atmos. Environ. 1999, 33(12):1821-1845.
22. Streets D.G., Fu J.H.S., Jang C.J., Hao J.M., He K.B., Tang X.Y., Zhang Y.H., Wang Z.F., Li Z.P., Zhang Q., Wang L.T., Wang B.Y., Yu C. Air quality during the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games. Atmos. Environ. 2007, 41(3):480-492.
23. Sudo K., Takahashi M., Kurokawa J., Akimoto H. CHASER: a global chemical model of the troposphere-1. Model description. J. Geophys. Res. 2002, 107(D17). 10.1029/2001JD001113.
24. USEPA (US Environmental Protection Agency) SPECIATE 3.2 Available from:. http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/software/speciate.
25. Wang X.S., Li J.L. The contribution of anthropogenic hydrocarbons to ozone formation in Beijing areas. China Environ. Sci. 2002, 22:501-505. (in Chinese).
26. Wang Y., Hao J., McElroy M.B., Munger J.W., Ma H., Chen D., Nielsen C.P. Ozone air quality during the 2008 Beijing Olympics: effectiveness of emission restrictions. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2009, 9(14):5237-5251.
27. Wang Z., Akimoto H., Uno I. Neutralization of soil aerosol and its impact on the distribution of acid rain over east Asia: observations and model results. J. Geophys. Res. 2002, 107(D19). 10.1029/2001JD001040.
28. Wang Z.F., Huang M.Y., He D., Xu H.Y., Zhou L. Studies on transport of acid substance in China and East Asia part I: 3-D Eulerian transport model for pollutants. Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 1997, 21:367-375.
29. Wang Z.F., Xie F.Y., Wang X.Q., An J.L., Zhu J. Development and application of nested air quality prediction modeling system. Chin. J. Atmos. Sci. 2006, 30:778-790.
30. Wesely M.L. Parameterization of surface resistances to gaseous dry deposition in regional-scale numerical models. Atmos. Environ. 1989, 23:1293-1304.
31. Wu Q.Z., Wang Z.F., Gbaguidi A., Tang X., Zhou W. Numerical study of the effects of traffic restriction on air quality in Beijing. SOLA 2010, 6A. 10.2151/sola.6A-005.
32. Yuan Z.B., Lau A.K.H., Shao M., Louie P.K.K., Liu S.C., Zhu T. Source analysis of volatile organic compounds by positive matrix factorization in urban and rural environments in Beijing. J. Geophys. Res. 2009, 114(D00G15). 10.1029/2008JD011190.
33. Zaveri R.A., Peters L.K. A new lumped structure photochemical mechanism for large-scale applications. J. Geophys. Res. 1999, 104(D23):30387-30415.
34. 3-NOx-VOC sensitivity. J. Geophys. Res. 2003, 108(D14). 10.1029/2002JD003144.
35. Zhang Q., Streets D.G., Carmichael G.R., He K.B., Huo H., Kannari A., Klimont Z., Park I.S., Reddy S., Fu J.S., Chen D., Duan L., Lei Y., Wang L.T., Yao Z.L. Asian emissions in 2006 for the NASA INTEX-B mission. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 2009, 9:5131-5153.
36. Zhu B., Akimoto H., Wang Z.F., Sudo K., Tang J., Uno I. Why does surface ozone peak in summertime at Waliguan?. Geophys. Res. Lett. 2004, 31(17):L17104. 10.1029/2004GL020609.