The potential impacts of climate change on the hydrography of the northwest European continental shelf

Progress in Oceanography

Volumn 86, Issue 3-4, 2010, Pages 361-379

  Holt, Jason ^a   Wakelin, Sarah ^a   Lowe, Jason ^b   Tinker, Jonathan ^c  

^a NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY CENTRE   (United Kingdom)

^b UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

^c MET OFFICE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS; BUSINESS-AS-USUAL; COASTAL OCEAN; CONTINENTAL SHELVES; DATA BASE; EMISSIONS SCENARIOS; FORCED SIMULATION; POTENTIAL IMPACTS; REANALYSIS; REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS; RIVER DISCHARGE; SHELF SEAS;

CLIMATE MODELS; COMPUTER SIMULATION; OCEANOGRAPHY; SALINITY MEASUREMENT;

CLIMATE CHANGE;

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CONTINENTAL SHELF; DATABASE; HYDROGRAPHY; MODEL VALIDATION; OPEN OCEAN; REGIONAL CLIMATE; RIVER DISCHARGE; SALINITY; SHELF SEA; STRATIFICATION; SURFACE WATER; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY; WATER TEMPERATURE;

EUROPE;

EID: 77955842234     PISSN: 00796611     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.pocean.2010.05.003     Document Type: Article

References (58)

1. Adlandsvik B. Marine downscaling of a future climate scenario for the North Sea. Tellus Series A - Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 2008, 60:451-458.
2. Adlandsvik B., Bentsen M. Downscaling a twentieth century global climate simulation to the North Sea. Ocean Dynamics 2007, 57:453-466.
3. Allen J.I., Blackford J., Holt J.T., Proctor R., Ashworth M., Siddorn J. A highly spatially resolved ecosystem model for the North West European continental shelf. SARSIA 2001, 86:423-440.
4. Allen J.I., Aiken J., Anderson T.R., Buitenhuis E., Cornell S., Geider R., Haines K., Hirata T., Holt J., Le Quéré C., Hardman-Mountford N., Ross O.N., Sinha B., While J. Marine ecosystem models for earth systems applications: the MarQUEST experience. Journal of Marine Systems 2010, 81:19-33.
5. Beaugrand G., Reid P.C., Ibanez F., Lindley J.A., Edwards M. Reorganization of North Atlantic marine copepod biodiversity and climate. Science 2002, 296:1692-1694.
6. Bell M.J., Forbes R.M., Hines A. Assessment of the FOAM global data assimilation system for real time operational ocean forecasting. Journal of Marine Systems 2000, 25:1-22.
7. Bell V.A., Kay A.L., Jones R.G., Moore R.J. Development of a high resolution grid-based river flow model for use with regional climate model output. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2007, 11(1):532-549.
8. Bindoff N.L., Willebrand J., Artale V., Cazenave A., Gregory J., Gulev S., Hanawa K., LeQuere C., Levitus S., Nojiri Y., Shum C.K., Talley L.D., Unnikrishnan A.S. Observations: oceanic climate change and sea level. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, 385-432. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY. D.Q.S. Solomon, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, H.L. Miller (Eds.).
9. Bowers D.G., Simpson J.H. Mean positions of tidal fronts in European Shelf Sea. Continental Shelf Research 1987, 7:35-44.
10. Burrows M., Thorpe S.A., Meldrum D.T. Dispersion over the Hebrides and Shetland shelves and slopes. Continental Shelf Research 1999, 19:49-55.
11. Chapman D.C. Boundary layer control of buoyant coastal currents and the establishment of a shelfbreak front. Journal of Physical Oceanography 2000, 30:2941-2955.
12. Connor D.W., Gilliland P.M., Golding N., Robinson P., Todd D., Verling E. UKSeaMap: the Mapping of Seabed and Water Column Features of UK Seas 2006, Joint Nature Conservation Committee, Peterborough.
13. Danielssen D.S., Edler L., Fonselius S., Hernroth L., Ostrowski M., Svendsen E., Talpsepp L. Oceanographic variability in the Skagerrak and Northern Kattegat, May-June, 1990. ICES Journal of Marine Science 1997, 54:753-773.
14. Déqué M., Rowell D.P., Luthi D., Giorgi F., Christensen J.H., Rockel B., Jacob D., Kjellström E., de Castro M., van den Hurk B. An intercomparison of regional climate simulations for Europe: assessing uncertainties in model projections. Climatic Change 2007, 81(Suppl.):53-70.
15. Elliott A.J., Clarke T. Seasonal stratification in the northwest European shelf seas. Continental Shelf Research 1991, 11(5):467-492.
16. Evans G.L., Williams P.J.L., Mitchelson-Jacob E.G. Physical and anthropogenic effects on observed long-term nutrient changes in the Irish Sea. Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science 2003, 57:1159-1168.
17. Fairall C.W., Bradley E.F., Hare J.E., Grachev A.A., Edson J.B. Bulk parameterization of air-sea fluxes: updates and verification for the COARE algorithm. Journal of Climate 2003, 16:571-591.
18. Flather R.A. A tidal model of the northwest European continental shelf. M'emoires de la Soci'et'e Royale des Sciences de Li'ege 1976, 10:141-164.
19. Gill A.E. Atmosphere-Ocean Dynamics 1982, Academic Press, New York.
20. Gomez-Gesteira M., deCastro M., Alvarez I. Coastal sea surface temperature warming trend along the continental part of the Atlantic Arc (1985-2005). Journal of Geophysical Research 2008, 113. 10.1029/2007JC004315.
21. Gordon C., Cooper C., Senior C.A., Banks H., Gregory J.M., Johns T.C., Mitchell J.F.B., Wood R.A. The simulation of SST, sea ice extents and ocean heat transports in a version of the Hadley Centre coupled model without flux adjustments. Climate Dynamics 2000, 16:147-168.
22. Holliday N.P., Hughes S.L., Bacon S., Beszczynska-Moller A., Hansen B., Lavin A., Loeng H., Mork K.A., Osterhus S., Sherwin T., Walczowski W. Reversal of the 1960s to 1990s freshening trend in the northeast North Atlantic and Nordic Seas. Geophysical Research Letters 2008, 35.
23. Holliday, N.P., Hughes, S.L., Beszczynska-Moller, A., (Eds.) 2009. ICES Report on Ocean Climate.
24. Holt J.T., James I.D. An s-coordinate density evolving model of the North West European Continental Shelf. Part 1 model description and density structure. Journal of Geophysical Research 2001, 106(C7):14015-14034.
25. Holt J.T., Proctor R. The seasonal circulation and volume transport on the northwest European continental shelf: a fine-resolution model study. Journal of Geophysical Research 2008, 113. 10.1029/2006JC004034.
26. Holt J., Umlauf L. Modelling the tidal mixing fronts and seasonal stratification of the Northwest European continental shelf. Continental Shelf Research 2008, 28:887-903.
27. Holt J.T., Allen J.I., Proctor R., Gilbert F. Error quantification of a high resolution coupled hydrodynamic-ecosystem coastal-ocean model: part 1 model overview and assessment of the hydrodynamics. Journal of Marine Systems 2005, 57:167-188.
28. Holt J., Wakelin S., Huthnance J. Down-welling circulation of the northwest European continental shelf: a driving mechanism for the continental shelf carbon pump. Geophysical Research Letters 2009, 36.
29. Holt, J., Wakelin, S.L., Hopkins, J., Proctor, R., Hughes, S., Holliday, N.P., Tattersall, G.R., Ward, B., in preparation. Multi-decadal variability of the temperature of the northwest European continental shelf: a model-data synthesis.
30. Horsburgh K.J., Hill A.E., Brown J., Fernand L., Garvine R.W., Angelico M.M.P. Seasonal evolution of the cold pool gyre in the western Irish Sea. Progress in Oceanography 2000, 46:1-58.
31. Huthnance J.M. Slope currents and jebar. Journal of Physical Oceanography 1984, 14:795-810.
32. Huthnance J.M. Circulation, exchange and water masses at the ocean margin: the role of physical processes at the shelf edge. Progress in Oceanography 1995, 35:353-431.
33. Huthnance J.M. North Sea interaction with the North Atlantic Ocean. Deutsche Hydrographische Zeitschrift 1997, 49:153-162.
34. Huthnance J.M., Holt J.T., Wakelin S.L. Deep ocean exchange with west-European shelf seas. Ocean Science 2009, 5:621-634.
35. Hydes D.J., Gowen R.J., Holliday N.P., Shammon T., Mills D. External and internal control of winter concentrations of nutrients (N, P and Si) in north-west European shelf seas. Estuarine Coastal and Shelf Science 2004, 59:151-161.
36. Lane A., Prandle D. Inter-annual variability in the temperature of the North Sea. Continental Shelf Research 1996, 16:1489-1507.
37. Levitus S., Antonov J.I., Timothy P.B., Stephens C. Warming of the World Ocean. Science 2000, 287:2225-2229.
38. Lowe J.A., Howard T.P., Pardaens A., Tinker J., Holt J., Wakelin S., Milne G., Leake J., Wolf J., Horsburgh K., Reeder T., Jenkins G., Ridley J., Dye S., Bradley S. UK Climate Projections Science Report: Marine and Coastal Projections 2009, Chaos. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.
39. Meier H.E.M. Baltic Sea climate in the late twenty-first century: a dynamical downscaling approach using two global models and two emission scenarios. Climate Dynamics 2006, 27:39-68.
40. Murphy J.M., Sexton D.M.H., Jenkins G.J., Boorman P.M., Booth B.B.B., Brown C.C., Clark R.T., Collins M., Harris G.R., Kendon E.J., Betts R.A., Brown S.J., Howard T.P., Humphrey K.A., McCarthy M.P., McDonald R.E., Stephens A., Wallace C., Warren R., Wilby R., Wood R.A. UK Climate Projections Science Report: Climate Change Projections 2009, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.
41. Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2000, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA. N. Nakicenovic, R. Swart (Eds.).
42. Nicholls R.J. Coastal flooding and wetland loss in the 21st Century: changes under the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environmental Change 2004, 14(1):69-86.
43. Pingree R.D., Griffiths D.K. Tidal fronts on the shelf seas around the British Isles. Journal of Geophysical Research 1977, 3(C9):4615-4622.
44. Pingree R.D., Sinha B., Griffiths C.R. Seasonality of the European slope current (Goban Spur) and ocean margin exchange. Continental Shelf Research 1999, 19:929-975.
45. Pope V.D., Gallani M.L., Rowntree P.R., Stratton R.A. The impact of new physical parameterizations in the Hadley Centre climate model: HadAM3. Climate Dynamics 2000, 16(2-3):123-146.
46. Pugh D.T. Tides, Surges and Mean Sea Level: A Handbook for Engineers and Scientist 1987, John Wiley and Sons.
47. Randall D.A., Wood R.A., Bony S., Colman R., Fichefet T., Fyfe J., Kattsov V., Shukla J., Srinivasan J., Stouffer R.J., Sumi A., Taylor K.E. Climate models and their evaluation. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007, 385-432. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY. D.Q.S. Solomon, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, H.L. Miller (Eds.).
48. Schrum C., Hubner U., Jacob D., Podzun R. A coupled atmosphere/ice/ocean model for the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. Climate Dynamics 2003, 21:131-151.
49. Sharples J., Simpson J.H. Semi-diurnal and longer period stability cycles in the Liverpool Bay region of freshwater influence. Continental Shelf Research 1995, 15(2):295-313.
50. Sharples J., Ross O.N., Scott B.E., Greenstreet S.P.R., Fraser H. Inter-annual variability in the timing of stratification and the spring bloom in the North-western North Sea. Continental Shelf Research 2006, 26:733-751.
51. Shchepetkin A.F., McWilliams J.C. The regional oceanic modeling system (ROMS): a split-explicit, free-surface, topography-following-coordinate oceanic model. Ocean Modelling 2005, 9:347-404.
52. Siddorn J.R., Allen J.I., Blackford J.C., Gilbert F.J., Holt J.T., Holt M.W., Osborne J.P., Proctor R., Mills D.K. Modelling the hydrodynamics and ecosystem of the North-West European continental shelf for operational oceanography. Journal of Marine Systems 2007, 65:417-429.
53. Simpson J.H., Hunter J.R. Fronts in the Irish Sea. Nature 1974, 250:404-406.
54. Souza A.J., Simpson J.H., Harikrishnan M., Malarkey J. Flow structure and seasonality in the Hebridean slope current. Oceanologica ACTA 2001, 24:S63-S76.
55. van Leussen W., Radach G., vanRaaphorst W., Colijn F., Laane R. The North-West European Shelf Programme (NOWESP): integrated analysis of shelf processes based on existing data sets and models. ICES Journal of Marine Science 1996, 53:926-932.
56. Wakelin S.L., Holt J.T., Proctor R. The influence of initial conditions and open boundary conditions on shelf circulation in a 3D ocean-shelf model of the North East Atlantic. Ocean Dynamics 2009, 59. 10.1007/s10236-10008-10164-10233.
57. Watson R., Pauly D. Systematic distortions in world fisheries catch trends. Nature 2001, 414:534-536.
58. Young E.F., Holt J.T. Prediction and analysis of long-term variability of temperature and salinity in the Irish Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research 2007, 112. 10.1029/2005JC003386, 002007.