A probabilistic approach for earthquake potential evaluation based on the load/unload response ratio method

Concurrency and Computation: Practice and Experience

Volumn 22, Issue 12, 2010, Pages 1520-1533

  Yu, Huai Zhong ^a,b   Zhu, Qing Yong ^c  

^a INSTITUTE OF GEOLOGY   (China)

^b CHINA EARTHQUAKE NETWORKS CENTER   (China)

^c SUN YAT SEN UNIVERSITY   (China)

Author keywords

Confidence level; Earthquake occurrence probability; Load unload response ratio (LURR); Stochastic distribution

Indexed keywords

PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS; STOCHASTIC SYSTEMS; TIME SERIES; UNLOADING;

CONFIDENCE LEVELS; COULOMB FAILURE STRESS; EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCES; LOAD/UNLOAD RESPONSE RATIOS; LOADING AND UNLOADING; OCCURRENCE PROBABILITY; PROBABILISTIC APPROACHES; STOCHASTIC DISTRIBUTION;

EARTHQUAKES;

EID: 77955477240     PISSN: 15320626     EISSN: 15320634     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/cpe.1509     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (25)

1. Rundle JB. A physical model for earthquakes. Journal of Geophysical Research 1989;94:2839-2855.
2. Lyakhovsky V, Ben-Zion Y, Agnon A. Earthquake cycle, fault zones and seismicity patterns in a rheologically layered litho-sphere. Journal of Geophysical Research 2001;106:4103-4120.
3. Sornette A, Sornette D. Earthquake rupture as a critical point: Consequences for telluric precursors. Tectonophysics 1990;179:327-334.
4. Sornette D, Sammis CG. Complex critical exponents from renormalization group theory of earthquake prediction. Journal of Physics I. France 1995;5:607-619.
5. Sammis CG, Smith SW. Seismic cycles and the evolution of stress correlation in cellular automation models of finite fault networks. Pure and Applied Geophysics 1999;155:307-334.
6. Bowman DD, Ouillon G, Sammis CG, Sornette A, Sornette D. An observational test of critical earthquake concept. Journal of Geophysical Research 1998;103:24359-24372.
7. Rundle JB, Klein W, Gross S. A physical basis for statical patterns in complex earthquake populations: Models, predictions and tests. Pure and Applied Geophysics 1999;155:575-607.
8. Jaume SC, Sykes LR. Evolution toward a critical point: A review of accelerating seismic moment/energy release prior to large great earthquakes. Pure and Applied Geophysics 1999;155:279-306.
9. Smith SW, Sammis CG. Revisiting the tidal activation of seismicity with a damage mechanics and friction point of view. Pure and Applied Geophysics 2004;161:2393-2404.
10. Burridge R, Knopoff L. Model and theoretical seismicity. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 1967;57:341-371.
11. Cao T, Aki K. Seismicity simulation with a mass-spring model and a displacement hardening-softening friction law. Pure and Applied Geophysics 1984;122:10-24.
12. Carlson JM, Langer JS. Mechanical model of an earthquake fault. Physical Review 1984; A40:6470-6484.
13. Lockner DA, Byerlee JD, Kuksenko V, Ponomarev A, Sidorin A. Quasi-static fault growth and shear fracture energy in granite. Nature 1991;350:439-443.
14. Lockner DA, Byerlee JD. Precursory AE Patterns leading to rock fracture. Proceedings of the 5th Conference on Acoustic Emmision/Microseismic Active in Geologic Structure and Material, Hardy HR (ed.). Trans Publication: Claushtal, Germany, 1992;1-4.
15. Stein RS. The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence. Nature 1999;402:605-609.
16. Curran DR, Seaman L, Shockey DA. Dynamic failure of solids. Physical Review 1997;147:253-388.
17. Garcimartin A, Guarino A, Bellon L, Ciliberto S. Statistical properties of failure precursors. Physical Review Letters 1997;79:3202-3205.
18. Bai YL, Lu CS, Ke FJ. Evolution induced catastrophe. Physical Letters 1994;185(A):196-199.
19. Wei YJ, Xia MF, Ke FJ, Yin XC, Bai YL. Evolution-induced catastrophe and its predictability. Pure and Applied Geophysics 2000;157:1945-1957.
20. Yin XC, Chen XZ, Song ZP, Yin C. A new approach to earthquake prediction-The load/unload response ratio (LURR) theory. Pure and Applied Geophysics 1995;145(3-4):701-715.
21. Yin XC, Wang YC, Peng KY, Bai YL, Wang H, Yin XF. Development of a new approach to earthquake prediction: Load/unload response ratio (LURR) theory. Pure and Applied Geophysics 2000;157:2365-2383.
22. Yin XC, Yin C. The precursor of instability for nonlinear system and its application to earthquake prediction. Science in China 1991;34:977-986.
23. Yin XC, Mora P, Peng KY, Wang YC, Weatherly D. Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energy release, critical region scaling and earthquake prediction. Pure and Applied Geophysics 2002;159:2511-2524.
24. Yin XC, Yu HZ, Kukshenko V, Xu ZY, Wu ZS, Li M, Peng KY, Elizarov S, Li Q. Load-unload response ratio (LURR), accelerating moment/energy release (AM/ER) and state vector evolution as precursors to failure of rock specimens. Pure and Applied Geophysics 2004;161:2405-2416.
25. Zhuang JC, Yin XC. Random distribution of the load/unload response ration (LURR) under assumptions of poisson model. Earthquake Research in China 1999;15:128-138.