Urbanization, climate change and flood policy in the United States

Climatic Change

Volumn 103, Issue 3, 2010, Pages 597-616

  Ntelekos, Alexandros A ^a   Oppenheimer, Michael ^b   Smith, James A ^a   Miller, Andrew J ^c  

^a Princeton University   (United States)

^b PRINCETON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND BALTIMORE COUNTY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ANNUAL COST; ECONOMIC GROWTH RATE; ECONOMIC GROWTHS; ECONOMIC IMPACTS; EMISSIONS SCENARIOS; EXTREME PRECIPITATION; FEDERAL GOVERNMENTS; FLOOD POLICY; FUTURE PROJECTIONS; GLOBAL MODELS; MESOSCALE; MESOSCALE MODELING; NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE PROGRAMS; NATIONAL POLICIES; NEW YORK CITY; URBAN ENVIRONMENTS; US DOLLAR;

COSTS; ECONOMICS; FLOOD DAMAGE; FLOOD INSURANCE; PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY);

CLIMATE CHANGE;

CLIMATE CHANGE; ECONOMIC GROWTH; FLOODING; POLICY APPROACH; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); SOCIAL SECURITY; URBANIZATION;

NEW YORK [UNITED STATES]; UNITED STATES;

EID: 77955371254     PISSN: 01650009     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-009-9789-6     Document Type: Article

References (74)

1. Bates PD, Wilson MD, Horritt MS, Mason DC, Holden N, Currie A (2006) Reach scale floodplain inundation dynamics observed using airborne synthetic aperture radar imagery: data analysis and modelling. J Hydrol 328(1-2): 306-318.
2. Changnon SA (1980) Summer flooding at Chicago and possible relationships to ubran-increased heavy rainfall. Water Resour Bull 16(2): 323-325.
3. Changnon SA (2008) Assessment of flood losses in the United States. J Contemp Water Res Educ 138(1): 38-44.
4. Changnon SA, Westcott NE (2002) Heavy rainstorms in Chicago: increasing frequency, altered impacts, and future implications. J Am Water Resour Assoc 38(5): 1467-1475.
5. Changnon SA, Kunkel KE, Andsager K (2001) Causes for record high flood losses in the Central United States. Water Int 26(2): 223-230.
6. Chen F, Dudhia J (2001) Coupling an advanced land surface-hydrology model with the Penn State-NCAR MM5 modeling system. Part I: model implementation and sensitivity. Mon Weather Rev 129(4): 569-585.
7. Collier CG (2007) Flash flood forecasting: what are the limits of predictability? Q J R Meteorol Soc 133(622): 3-23.
8. Downton MW, Pielke RA (2000) Precipitation and damaging floods: trends in the United States, 1932-97. J Climate 13(20): 3625-3637.
9. Droegemeier KK, Smith JD, Businger S, Doswell IC, Doyle J, Duffy C, Foufoula-Georgiou E, Graziano T, James LD, Krajewski V, LeMone M, Lettenmaier D, Mass C, Pielke R, Ray P, Rutledge S, Schaake J, Zipser E (2000) Hydrological aspects of weather prediction and flood warnings: report of the ninth prospectus development team of the US weather research program. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 88(11): 2665-2680.
10. FEMA (2005) A chronology of major events affecting the National Flood Insurance Program beginning with the year 1824 through January 2006. Technical report, American Institutes for Research, Washington, DC.
11. Gallus WA Jr, Bresch JF (2006) Comparison of impacts of WRF dynamic core, physics package, and initial conditions on warm season rainfall forecasts. Mon Weather Rev 134(9): 2632-2641.
12. GAO (1994) Flood insurance: financial resources may not be sufficient to meet future expected losses. Technical report GAO/RCED-94-80.
13. Goldenberg SB, Landsea CW, Mestas-Nuñez AM, Gray WM (2001) The recent increase in Atlantic hurricane activity: causes and implications. Science 293(5529): 474-479.
14. Gualdi S, Scoccimarro E, Navarra A (2008) Changes in tropical cyclone activity due to global warming: results from a high-resolution coupled general circulation model. J Climate 21(20): 5204-5228.
15. Gumley LE, King MD (1995) Remote-sensing of flooding in the US upper midwest the summer of 1993. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 76(6): 933-943.
16. Hobbs F, Stoops N (2002) Demographic trends in the 20th century. Technical report CENSR-4, US Census Bureau, Washington, DC.
17. Hoyt WG, Langbein WB (1955) Floods. Princeton University Press, Princeton.
18. Hudgens D (1999) Adapting the National Flood Insurance Program to relative sea level rise. Coast Manage 27(4): 367-375.
19. IPCC (2007a) Climate change 2007. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt K, Tignor M, Miller H (eds) Summary for policymakers. The physical science Basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
20. IPCC (2007b) Climate change 2007. In: Parry M, Canziani O, Palutikof J, van der Linden P, Hanson C (eds) Summary for policymakers. Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of working group II to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
21. Jankov I, Gallus JWA, Segal M, Shaw B, Koch SE (2005) The impact of different WRF model physical parameterizations and their interactions on warm season MCS rainfall. Weather Forecast 20(6): 1048-1060.
22. Javier JRN, Smith JA, Meierdiercks KL, Baeck ML, Miller AJ (2007) Flash flood forecasting for small urban watersheds in the Baltimore metropolitan region. Weather Forecast 22(6): 1331-1344.
23. Jin ML, Dickinson RE, Zhang DL (2005) The footprint of urban areas on global climate as characterized by MODIS. J Climate 18(10): 1551-1565.
24. Kain JS, Weiss SJ, Levit JJ, Baldwin ME, Bright DR (2006) Examination of convection-allowing configurations of the WRF model for the prediction of severe convective weather: the SPC/NSSL Spring Program 2004. Weather Forecast 21(2): 167-181.
25. Knuston TR, Sirutis JJ, Garner ST, Vecchi GA, Held IM (2008) Simulated reduction in Atlantic hurricane frequency under twenty-first-century warming conditions. Nature Geoscience 1(6): 359-364.
26. Kunkel KE, Peilke RA, Changnon SA (1999) Temporal fluctuations in weather and climate extreme that cause economic and human health impacts: a review. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 80(6): 1077-1098.
27. Leopold LB (1968) Hydrology for urban planning-a guidebook on the hydrologic of urban land use. Professional paper 669, US Geological Survey.
28. Loaiciga HA, Valdes JB, Vogel R, Garvey J, Schwarz H (1996) Global warming and the hydrologic cycle. J Hydrol 174: 83-127.
29. Lowry WP (1998) Urban effects on precipitation amount. Progr Phys Geogr 22: 477-520.
30. Meehl GA, Zwiers F, Evans J, Knutson T, Mearns L, Whetton P (2000) Trends in extreme weather and climate events: issues related to modelling extremes in projections of future climate change. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 81(3): 427-436.
31. Mesinger F (1996) Improvements in quantitative precipitation forecasts with the ETA regional model at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction: the 48-km upgrade. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77(11): 2637-2649.
32. Mills E (2005) Insurance in a climate of change. Science 309: 1040-1044.
33. Milly PCD, Wetherald RT, Dunne KA, Delworth TL (2002) Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate. Nature 415(6871): 514-517.
34. Milly PCD, Dunne KA, Vecchia AV (2005) Global pattern trends in streamflow and water availability in a changing climate. Nature 438(7066): 347-350.
35. Milly PCD, Betancourt J, Flakenmark M, Hirsch RM, Kundzewicz ZW, Lettenmaier DP, Stouffer RJ (2008) Climate change-stationarity is dead: whither water management? Science 319(5863): 573-574.
36. Morgan AE (1951) The Miami conservancy district. McGraw-Hill, New York.
37. Myers MF, White GF (1993) The challenge of the Mississippi flood. Environment 35(10): 6.
38. Nelson PA, Smith JA, Miller AJ (2006) Evolution of channel morphology and hydrologic response in an urbanizing drainage basin. Earth Surf Processes Landf 31(9): 1063-1079.
39. NFIP (2002) Program description. Report, Federal Emergency Management Agency.
40. Nijhuis A (2006) Lessons learned from flood defence in the Netherlands. Irrig Drain 55: S121-S132.
41. Ntelekos AA, Smith JA, Krajewski WF (2007) Climatological analyses of thunderstorms and flash floods in the Baltimore metropolitan region. J Hydrometeorol 8(1): 88-101.
42. Ntelekos AA, Smith JA, Baeck ML, Krajewski WF, Miller AJ, Goska R (2008) Extreme hydrometeorological events and the urban environment: dissecting the 7 July 2004 thunderstorm over the Baltimore, MD metropolitan region. Water Resour Res 44(8): Art no W08446.
43. Ntelekos AA, Smith JA, Donner L, Fast JD, Gustafson JWI, Chapman EG, Krajewski WF (2009) The effects of aerosols on intense convective precipitation in the Northeasern US. Q J R Meteorol Soc 135: 1367-1391.
44. Nyberg J, Malmgren BA, Winter A, Jury MR, Kilbourne KH, Quinn TM (2007) Low Atlantic hurricane activity in the 1970s and 1980s compared to the past 270 years. Nature 447(7145): 698-U11.
45. O'Connor JE, Costa JE (2003) Large floods in the United States: where they happen and why. US Geologucal Survey Circular 1245, USGS.
46. O'Connor JE, Costa JE (2004) The world's largest flood, past and present: their causes and magnitudes. US Geologucal Survey Circular 1254, USGS.
47. Ogden FL, Sharif HO, Senarath SUS, Smith JA, Baeck ML, Richardson JR (2000) Hydrologic analysis of the Fort Collins, Colorado, flash flood of 1997. J Hydrol 228(1-2): 82-100.
48. Oppenheimer M (2005) Defining dangerous anthropogenic interference: the role of science, the limits of science. Risk Anal 25(6): 1399-1407.
49. Otkin JA, Greenwald TJ (2008) Comparison of WRF model-simulated and MODIS-derived cloud data. Mon Weather Rev 136(6): 1957-1970.
50. Pielke RA Jr (2000) Nine fallacies of floods. Clim Change 42(2): 413-438.
51. Pielke RA, Downton MW (2000) Precipitation and damaging floods: trends in th United States, 1932-97. J Climate 13(20): 3625-3637.
52. Pielke RA Jr, Downton MW, Miller JZB (2002) Flood damage in the United States, 1996-2000: a reanalysis of National Weather Service estimates. Report, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA.
53. Rogers E, Black TL, Deaven DG, DiMego GJ, Zhao Q, Baldwin M, Junker NW, Lin Y (1996) Changes to the operational "early" Eta analysis/forecast system at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. J Climate 9(9): 2093-2109.
54. Samuels P, Klijn F, Dijkman J (2006) An analysis of the current practice of policies on river flood risk management in different countries. Irrig Drain 55: S141-S150.
55. Sender EG (2007) August 8, 2007 storm report. Executive summary, Metropolitan Transportation Authority.
56. Sharif HO, Yates D, Roberts R, Mueller C (2006) The use of an automated nowcasting system to forecast flash floods in an urban watershed. J Hydrometeorol 7(1): 190-202.
57. Shepherd JM (2005) A review of the current investigations of urban-induced rainfall and recommendations for the future. Earth Interact 9(12): 1-27.
58. Shepherd JM, Burian SJ (2003) Detection of urban-induced rainfall anomalies in a major coastal city. Earth Interact 7(4): 1-17.
59. Skamarock WC, Klemp JB, Dudhia J, Gill DO, Barker DM, Wang W, Powers JG (2007) A description of the advanced research WRF version 2. Technical note 468+STR, National Centers for Atmospheric Research.
60. Smith JA, Baeck ML, Morrison JE, Sturdevant-Rees P, Turner-Gillespie DF, Bates PD (2002) The regional hydrology of extreme floods in an urbanizing drainage. J Hydrometeorol 3(3): 267-282.
61. Smith JA, Baeck ML, Meierdiercks KL, Nelson PA, Miller AJ, Holland EJ (2005a) Field studies of the storm event hydrologic response in an urbanizing watershed. Water Resour Res 41(10): W10413(15).
62. Smith JA, Miller AJ, Baeck ML, Nelson PA, Fisher GT, Meierdiercks KL (2005b) Extraordinary flood repsonse of a small urban watershed to short-duration convective rainfall. J Hydrometeorol 6(5): 599-617.
63. Smith JA, Baeck ML, Meierdiercks KL, Miller AJ, Krajewski WF (2007) Radar rainfall estimation for flash flood forecasting in small urban watersheds. Adv Water Resour 30(10): 2087-2097.
64. Stern N (2006) Short executive summary: Stern review report of the economics of climate change. Technical report, HM Treasury. Available at: http://www. hm-treasury. gov. uk/.
65. Sun Y, Solomon S, Dai A, Portmann WW (2007) How often will it rain? J Climate 20(19): 4801-4818.
66. Sylves R, Kershaw PJ (2004) Reducing future flood losses. The role of human actions. National Research Council, Washington DC, pp 1-17.
67. United Nations (2006) World population prospects: the 2006 revision-analytical report, vol III. Technical report no 263.
68. Vecchi GA, Knuston TR (2008) On estimates of historical north Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. J Climate 21(14): 3580-3600.
69. Vecchi GA, Soden BJ (2007) Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity. Nature 450(7172): 1066-U9.
70. Vecchi GA, Swanson KL, Soden BJ (2008) Climate change whither hurricane activity? Science 322(5902): 687-689.
71. Vieux BE, Bedient PB (1998) Estimation of rainfall for flood prediction from WSR-88D reflectivity: a case study, 17-18 October 1994. Weather Forecast 13(2): 407-415.
72. Villarini G, Smith JA, Serinaldi F, Bales J, Bates PD (2009) Flood frequency analysis for nonstationary annual peak records in an urban drainage basin. Adv Water Resour 32(8): 1255-1266.
73. White GF (1945) Human adjustement to floods: a geographical approach to the flood problem in the United States. PhD dissertation, The University of Chicago, Department of Geography.
74. Wilcox EM, Donner LJ (2007) The frequency of extreme rain events in satellite rain-rate and an atmospheric general circulation model. J Climate 20(1): 53-69.