Modeling road traffic crashes with zero-inflation and site-specific random effects

Statistical Methods and Applications

Volumn 19, Issue 3, 2010, Pages 445-462

  Huang, Helai ^a   Chin, Hong Chor ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA   (United States)

^b NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE   (Singapore)

Author keywords

Bayesian inference; Crash prediction model; Random effects; Traffic safety; Zero inflated count model

Indexed keywords

EID: 77955087506     PISSN: 16182510     EISSN: 1613981X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10260-010-0136-x     Document Type: Article

References (40)

1. Angers JF, Biswas A (2003) A Bayesian analysis of zero-inflated generalized Poisson model. Comput Stat Data Anal 42: 37-46.
2. Barron DN (1998) The analysis of count data: overdispersion and autocorrelation. Sociol Methodol 22: 179-219.
3. Box EP, Hunter WG, Hunter JS (1978) Statistics for experimenters. Wiley, New York.
4. Brooks SP, Gelman A (1998) Alternative methods for monitoring convergence of iterative simulations. J Comput Graph Stat 7: 434-455.
5. Chin HC, Quddus MA (2003) Modeling count data with excess zeros. Sociol Methods Res 32(1): 90-116.
6. Gelfand AE, Smith AFM (1990) Sampling based approaches to calculating marginal densities. J Am Stat Assoc 85: 398-409.
7. Gelman A, Carlin JB, Stern HS (2003) Bayesian data analysis. 2nd edn. Chapman and Hall, New York.
8. Ghosh SK, Pabak M, Lu JC (2006) Bayesian analysis of zero-inflated regression models. J Stat Plan Inference 136: 1360-1375.
9. Hall DB (2000) Zero-inflated Poisson and binomial regression with random effects: a case study. Biometrics 56: 1030-1039.
10. Haque MM, Chin HC, Huang H (2010) Applying Bayesian hierarchical models to examine motorcycle crashes at signalized intersections. Accid Anal Prev 42(1): 203-212.
11. Hausman JC, Hall BH, Griliches Z (1984) Econometric models for count data with an application to the patents-Rand D relationship. Econometrica 52(4): 909-938.
12. Hinde J (1982) Compound Poisson regression models. In: Gilchrist R (ed) GLIM 82: Proceedings of the international conference on generalized linear models. Springer, New York, pp 109-121.
13. Huang H, Chin HC, Haque MM (2008) Severity of driver injury and vehicle damage in traffic crashes at intersections: Bayesian hierarchical analysis. Accid Anal Prev 40(1): 45-54.
14. Huang H, Chin HC, Haque MM (2009) Empirical evaluation of alternative approaches in identifying crash hotspots: naive ranking, empirical Bayes and full Bayes. Transp Res Rec 2103: 32-41.
15. Karen CHY, Kelvin KWY (2005) On modeling claim frequency data in general insurance with extra zero. Insur Math Econ 36: 153-163.
16. Kulmala R (1995) Safety at rural three- and four-arm junctions: development and application of accident prediction models. Technical Research Center at Finland, VTT Publications, Espoo.
17. Kumara SSP, Chin HC (2003) Modeling accident occurrence at signalized tee intersections with special emphasis on excess zeros. Traffic Inj Prev 3(4): 53-57.
18. Lambert D (1992) Zero-inflated Poisson regression with an application to defects in manufacturing. Technometrics 34: 1-14.
19. Land KC, McCall PL, Nagin DS (1996) A comparison of Poisson, negative binomial and semiparametric mixed Poisson regressive models with empirical applications to criminal careers data. Sociol Methods Res 24: 387-442.
20. Lawless JF (1987) Negative binomial and mixed Poisson regressions. Can J Stat 15: 209-225.
21. Lee AH, Stevenson MR, Wang K, Kelvin KWY (2002) Modeling young driver motor vehicle crashes: data with extra zeros. Accid Anal Prev 34: 515-521.
22. Lee J, Mannering FL (2002) Impact of roadside features on the frequency and severity of run-off-road accidents: an empirical analysis. Accid Anal Prev 34(2): 349-361.
23. Lord D, Washington SP, Ivan JN (2005) Poisson, Poisson-gamma and zero-inflated regression models for motor vehicle crashes: balancing statistical fit and theory. Accid Anal Prev 37: 35-46.
24. Miaou SP (1994) The relationship between truck accidents and geometric design of road section: Poisson versus negative binomial regression. Accid Anal Prev 26(4): 471-482.
25. Poch M, Mannering FL (1996) Negative binomial analysis of intersection accident frequencies. J Transp Eng 122(2): 105-113.
26. Qin X, Ivan JN, Ravishanker N (2004) Selecting exposure measures in crash rate prediction for two-lane highway segments. Accid Anal Prev 36: 183-191.
27. Shankar VN, Albin RB, Milton JC, Mannering FL (1998) Evaluation of median crossover likelihoods with clustered accident counts: an empirical inquiry using the random effect negative binomial model. Transp Res Rec 1635: 44-48.
28. Shankar VN, Mannering FL, Barfield W (1995) Effect of roadway geometric and environmental factors on rural freeway accident frequencies. Accid Anal Prev 27(3): 371-389.
29. Shankar VN, Milton JC, Mannering FL (1997) Modeling accident frequencies as zero-altered probability process: an empirical enquiry. Accid Anal Prev 29(6): 829-837.
30. Shankar VN, Ulfarsson GF, Pendyala RM, Neberagal MB (2003) Modeling crashes involving pedestrians and motorized traffic. Saf Sci 41(7): 627-640.
31. Spiegelhalter DJ, Thomas A, Best NG, Lunn D (2003) WinBUGS version 1. 4. 1 User Manual. MRC Biostatistics Unit, Cambridge.
32. Tanner M, Wong W (1987) The calculation of posterior distributions by data augmentation (with discussion). J Am Stat Assoc 82: 528-550.
33. Vehtari A, Lampinen J (2002) Bayesian model assessment and comparison using cross-validation predictive densities. Neural Comput 14: 2439-2468.
34. Vieira AMC, Hinde JP, Demetrio CGB (2000) Zero-inflated proportion data models applied to a biological control assay. J Appl Stat 27(3): 373-389.
35. Vogt A, Bared J (1998) Accident models for two-lane rural segments and intersections. Transp Res Rec 1635: 18-29.
36. Vuong Q (1989) Likelihood ratio tests for model selection and non-nested hypothesis. Econometrica 57(2): 307-333.
37. Wang P (2001) Markov zero-inflated Poisson regression models for a time series of counts with excess zeros. J Appl Stat 28(5): 623-632.
38. Wang K, Lee AH, Kelvin KWY, Philip JW (2003) A bivariate zero-inflated Poisson regression model to analyze occupational injuries. Accid Anal Prev 35: 625-629.
39. Xie M, He B, Goh TN (2001) Zero-inflated Poisson model in statistical process control. Comput Stat Data Anal 38: 191-201.
40. Yang CM (2003) A Bayesian hierarchical model for accident and injury surveillance. Accid Anal Prev 35: 91-102.