메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 16, Issue 2, 2010, Pages 133-157

Insightful or wishful: Lawyers' Ability to Predict Case Outcomes

Author keywords

Case predictions; Confidence judgments; Legal decision making; Metacognitive realism

Indexed keywords


EID: 77955017159     PISSN: 10768971     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1037/a0019060     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (92)

References (70)
  • 1
    • 0039270532 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The effects of arguments on realism in confidence judgments
    • Allwood C.M., Granhag P.A. The effects of arguments on realism in confidence judgments. Acta Psychologica 1996, 91:99-119.
    • (1996) Acta Psychologica , vol.91 , pp. 99-119
    • Allwood, C.M.1    Granhag, P.A.2
  • 2
    • 0012633268 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Feelings of confidence and the realism of confidence judgments in everyday life
    • Erlbaum, Mahwah, NJ, P. Juslin, H. Montgomery (Eds.)
    • Allwood C.M., Granhag P.A. Feelings of confidence and the realism of confidence judgments in everyday life. Judgment and decision making: Neo-Brunswikian and process-tracing approaches 1999, 123-146. Erlbaum, Mahwah, NJ. P. Juslin, H. Montgomery (Eds.).
    • (1999) Judgment and decision making: Neo-Brunswikian and process-tracing approaches , pp. 123-146
    • Allwood, C.M.1    Granhag, P.A.2
  • 3
    • 21144459318 scopus 로고
    • Factors influencing wishful thinking and predictions of election outcomes
    • Babad E., Hills M., O'Driscoll M. Factors influencing wishful thinking and predictions of election outcomes. Basic and Applied Social Psychology 1992, 13:461-476.
    • (1992) Basic and Applied Social Psychology , vol.13 , pp. 461-476
    • Babad, E.1    Hills, M.2    O'Driscoll, M.3
  • 5
    • 0001156293 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Explaining bargaining impasse: The role of self-serving biases
    • Babcock L., Loewenstein G. Explaining bargaining impasse: The role of self-serving biases. Journal of Economic Perspectives 1997, 11:109-126.
    • (1997) Journal of Economic Perspectives , vol.11 , pp. 109-126
    • Babcock, L.1    Loewenstein, G.2
  • 6
    • 84980149346 scopus 로고
    • A case study of expert judgment: Economists' probabilities versus base-rate model forecasts
    • Braun P.A., Yaniv L. A case study of expert judgment: Economists' probabilities versus base-rate model forecasts. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 1992, 5:217-231.
    • (1992) Journal of Behavioral Decision Making , vol.5 , pp. 217-231
    • Braun, P.A.1    Yaniv, L.2
  • 7
    • 77955034233 scopus 로고
    • What lawyers want from judges in the settlement arena
    • D
    • Brazil W.D. What lawyers want from judges in the settlement arena. Federal Rules 1985, December, 85-101.
    • (1985) Federal Rules , pp. 85-101
    • Brazil, W.D.1
  • 8
    • 77955041677 scopus 로고
    • Early neutral evaluation: An experimental effort to expedite dispute resolution
    • Brazil W.D., Kahn M.A., Newman J.P., Gold J.Z. Early neutral evaluation: An experimental effort to expedite dispute resolution. Judicature 1986, 69:279-285.
    • (1986) Judicature , vol.69 , pp. 279-285
    • Brazil, W.D.1    Kahn, M.A.2    Newman, J.P.3    Gold, J.Z.4
  • 9
    • 0001610943 scopus 로고
    • Post-decision changes in desirability of alternatives
    • Brehm J.W. Post-decision changes in desirability of alternatives. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology 1956, 52:348-359.
    • (1956) Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology , vol.52 , pp. 348-359
    • Brehm, J.W.1
  • 11
    • 0002777512 scopus 로고
    • The effect of imagining an event on expectations for the event: An interpretation in terms of the availability heuristic
    • Carroll J.S. The effect of imagining an event on expectations for the event: An interpretation in terms of the availability heuristic. Journal of Experimental Psychology 1978, 14:88-96.
    • (1978) Journal of Experimental Psychology , vol.14 , pp. 88-96
    • Carroll, J.S.1
  • 12
    • 77955038637 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The illusion of control
    • American Psychological Association, Washington, DC, L.T. Benjamin (Ed.)
    • Dollinger S. The illusion of control. Favorite activities for the teaching of psychology 2008, 201-202. American Psychological Association, Washington, DC. L.T. Benjamin (Ed.).
    • (2008) Favorite activities for the teaching of psychology , pp. 201-202
    • Dollinger, S.1
  • 13
    • 85047685105 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Integration of the ecological and error models of overconfidence using a multiple trace memory model
    • Dougherty M.R.P. Integration of the ecological and error models of overconfidence using a multiple trace memory model. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 2001, 130:579-599.
    • (2001) Journal of Experimental Psychology: General , vol.130 , pp. 579-599
    • Dougherty, M.R.P.1
  • 17
    • 4344627593 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Theory-of-mind development: Retrospect and prospect
    • Flavell J. Theory-of-mind development: Retrospect and prospect. Merrill-Palmer Quarterly 2004, 50:274-290.
    • (2004) Merrill-Palmer Quarterly , vol.50 , pp. 274-290
    • Flavell, J.1
  • 18
    • 0026234897 scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence
    • Gigerenzer G., Hoffrage U., Kleinbolting H. Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psychological Review 1991, 98:506-528.
    • (1991) Psychological Review , vol.98 , pp. 506-528
    • Gigerenzer, G.1    Hoffrage, U.2    Kleinbolting, H.3
  • 21
    • 22044438246 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Metacognition in action: The importance of implementation intentions
    • Gollwitzer P., Schaal B. Metacognition in action: The importance of implementation intentions. Personality and Social Psychology Review 1998, 2:124-136.
    • (1998) Personality and Social Psychology Review , vol.2 , pp. 124-136
    • Gollwitzer, P.1    Schaal, B.2
  • 22
    • 34248566793 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Aligning confidence with accuracy: Revisiting the role of feedback
    • González-Vallejo C., Bonham A. Aligning confidence with accuracy: Revisiting the role of feedback. Acta Psychologica 2007, 125:221-239.
    • (2007) Acta Psychologica , vol.125 , pp. 221-239
    • González-Vallejo, C.1    Bonham, A.2
  • 23
    • 44049114641 scopus 로고
    • The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence
    • Griffin D., Tversky A. The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence. Cognitive Psychology 1992, 24:411-435.
    • (1992) Cognitive Psychology , vol.24 , pp. 411-435
    • Griffin, D.1    Tversky, A.2
  • 24
    • 34547156257 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hindsight bias in legal decision making
    • Harley E. Hindsight bias in legal decision making. Social Cognition 2007, 25:48-63.
    • (2007) Social Cognition , vol.25 , pp. 48-63
    • Harley, E.1
  • 26
    • 0010838484 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The University of Chicago Press, Chicago
    • Hogarth R.M. Educating intuition 2001, The University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
    • (2001) Educating intuition
    • Hogarth, R.M.1
  • 28
    • 0019528044 scopus 로고
    • Forecasting and planning: An evaluation
    • Hogarth R.M., Makridakis S. Forecasting and planning: An evaluation. Management Science 1981, 27:115-138.
    • (1981) Management Science , vol.27 , pp. 115-138
    • Hogarth, R.M.1    Makridakis, S.2
  • 30
    • 0142160685 scopus 로고
    • The dilemmas of attorney contingent fees
    • Jay S. The dilemmas of attorney contingent fees. The Georgetown Journal of Legal Ethics 1989, 2:813-884.
    • (1989) The Georgetown Journal of Legal Ethics , vol.2 , pp. 813-884
    • Jay, S.1
  • 31
    • 58149417364 scopus 로고
    • On the psychology of prediction
    • Kahneman D. On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review 1973, 80:237-251.
    • (1973) Psychological Review , vol.80 , pp. 237-251
    • Kahneman, D.1
  • 35
    • 10844260935 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Metacognition research: An interim report
    • Cambridge University Press, New York
    • Koriat A. Metacognition research: An interim report. Applied metacognition 2002, 261-286. Cambridge University Press, New York.
    • (2002) Applied metacognition , pp. 261-286
    • Koriat, A.1
  • 37
    • 0025520005 scopus 로고
    • The case for motivated reasoning
    • Kunda Z. The case for motivated reasoning. Psychological Bulletin 1990, 108:480-498.
    • (1990) Psychological Bulletin , vol.108 , pp. 480-498
    • Kunda, Z.1
  • 40
    • 77955039797 scopus 로고
    • Early neutral evaluation: A follow-up report
    • Levine D. Early neutral evaluation: A follow-up report. Judicature 1987, 70:236-240.
    • (1987) Judicature , vol.70 , pp. 236-240
    • Levine, D.1
  • 45
    • 77955034415 scopus 로고
    • Voorspellingen van rechterlijke beslissingen door advocaten. Nederlandse samenvatting van " Lawyers' predictions of judicial decisions: A study on calibration of experts." Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Rijksuniversiteit Leiden, Leiden, the Netherlands.
    • Malsch, M. (1989). Voorspellingen van rechterlijke beslissingen door advocaten. Nederlandse samenvatting van " Lawyers' predictions of judicial decisions: A study on calibration of experts." Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Rijksuniversiteit Leiden, Leiden, the Netherlands.
    • (1989)
    • Malsch, M.1
  • 49
    • 43449094045 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The trouble with overconfidence
    • Moore D., Healy P. The trouble with overconfidence. Psychological Review 2008, 115:502-517.
    • (2008) Psychological Review , vol.115 , pp. 502-517
    • Moore, D.1    Healy, P.2
  • 50
    • 34249009948 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Overconfidence and unconfidence: When and why people underestimate (and overestimate) the competition
    • Moore D.A., Cain D.M. Overconfidence and unconfidence: When and why people underestimate (and overestimate) the competition. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 2007, 103:197-213.
    • (2007) Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes , vol.103 , pp. 197-213
    • Moore, D.A.1    Cain, D.M.2
  • 53
    • 84928837316 scopus 로고
    • Decisions, actions, and the appropriateness of confidence in knowledge
    • Paese P.W., Feuer M.A. Decisions, actions, and the appropriateness of confidence in knowledge. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making 1991, 4:1-16.
    • (1991) Journal of Behavioral Decision Making , vol.4 , pp. 1-16
    • Paese, P.W.1    Feuer, M.A.2
  • 54
    • 0037231541 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Gender differences in the self-assessment of accuracy on cognitive tasks
    • Pallier G. Gender differences in the self-assessment of accuracy on cognitive tasks. Sex Roles 2003, 48:265-276.
    • (2003) Sex Roles , vol.48 , pp. 265-276
    • Pallier, G.1
  • 58
    • 84892170148 scopus 로고
    • The role of judges in settling complex cases: The Agent Orange example
    • Schuck P.H. The role of judges in settling complex cases: The Agent Orange example. The University of Chicago Law Review 1986, 53:337-365.
    • (1986) The University of Chicago Law Review , vol.53 , pp. 337-365
    • Schuck, P.H.1
  • 59
    • 0000151027 scopus 로고
    • Imagining an event can heighten or lower the perceived likelihood of contracting a disease: The mediating effect of ease of imagery
    • Sherman J.S., Cialdini R.B., Schwartzman D.F., Reynolds K.D. Imagining an event can heighten or lower the perceived likelihood of contracting a disease: The mediating effect of ease of imagery. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin 1985, 11:118-127.
    • (1985) Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin , vol.11 , pp. 118-127
    • Sherman, J.S.1    Cialdini, R.B.2    Schwartzman, D.F.3    Reynolds, K.D.4
  • 60
    • 65349175948 scopus 로고
    • Ethical discretion in lawyering
    • Simon W.H. Ethical discretion in lawyering. Harvard Law Review 1988, 101:1083-1145.
    • (1988) Harvard Law Review , vol.101 , pp. 1083-1145
    • Simon, W.H.1
  • 61
    • 0345856407 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Training to improve calibration and discrimination: The effects of performance and environmental feedback
    • Stone E.R., Opel R.B. Training to improve calibration and discrimination: The effects of performance and environmental feedback. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 2000, 83(2):282-309.
    • (2000) Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes , vol.83 , Issue.2 , pp. 282-309
    • Stone, E.R.1    Opel, R.B.2
  • 62
    • 0016264378 scopus 로고
    • Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases
    • Tversky A., Kahneman D. Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science 1974, 185:1124-1131.
    • (1974) Science , vol.185 , pp. 1124-1131
    • Tversky, A.1    Kahneman, D.2
  • 65
    • 77955036808 scopus 로고
    • Confidence in knowledge: Studies on the calibration of subjective probabilities. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
    • Vreugdenhil, H. (1993). Confidence in knowledge: Studies on the calibration of subjective probabilities. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
    • (1993)
    • Vreugdenhil, H.1
  • 67
    • 0020352212 scopus 로고
    • Unrealistic optimism about susceptibility for health problems
    • Weinstein N.D. Unrealistic optimism about susceptibility for health problems. Journal of Behavioral Medicine 1982, 5:441-460.
    • (1982) Journal of Behavioral Medicine , vol.5 , pp. 441-460
    • Weinstein, N.D.1
  • 68
    • 0002593644 scopus 로고
    • Reducing unrealistic optimism about illness susceptibility
    • Weinstein N.D. Reducing unrealistic optimism about illness susceptibility. Health Psychology 1983, 2:11-20.
    • (1983) Health Psychology , vol.2 , pp. 11-20
    • Weinstein, N.D.1
  • 69
    • 77955015557 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • When does familiarity breed content? A study of the role of different forms of ADR education and experience in attorneys' ADR recommendations
    • Wissler R.L. When does familiarity breed content? A study of the role of different forms of ADR education and experience in attorneys' ADR recommendations. Pepperdine Dispute Resolution Law Journal 2002, 2:199-217.
    • (2002) Pepperdine Dispute Resolution Law Journal , vol.2 , pp. 199-217
    • Wissler, R.L.1
  • 70
    • 0011601650 scopus 로고
    • Dispute resolution, bargaining, and the selection of cases for trial: A study of biased and unbiased data
    • Wittman D. Dispute resolution, bargaining, and the selection of cases for trial: A study of biased and unbiased data. The Journal of Legal Studies 1988, XVII:313-352.
    • (1988) The Journal of Legal Studies , vol.17 , pp. 313-352
    • Wittman, D.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.