Finding needles (or ants) in haystacks: Predicting locations of invasive organisms to inform eradication and containment

Ecological Applications

Volumn 20, Issue 5, 2010, Pages 1217-1227

  Schmidt, Daniel ^a   Spring, Daniel ^a   Mac Nally, Ralph ^a   Thomson, James R ^a   Brook, Barry W ^b   Cacho, Oscar ^c   Mckenzie, Michael ^d  

^a MONASH UNIVERSITY   (Australia)

^b UNIVERSITY OF ADELAIDE   (Australia)

^c UNIVERSITY OF NEW ENGLAND   (Australia)

^d UNIVERSITY OF SYDNEY   (Australia)

Author keywords

Australia; Bayesian models; Queensland; Red imported fire ant; Solenopsis invicta; Spread models; Surveillance

Indexed keywords

ANT; BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; BIOLOGICAL INVASION; CONTAINMENT; DATA SET; INVASIVE SPECIES; NUMERICAL MODEL; POPULATION STRUCTURE; SPATIAL VARIATION; TIME SERIES; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS;

ANIMAL; ANT; ARTICLE; AUSTRALIA; BIOLOGICAL MODEL; POPULATION DYNAMICS; STATISTICAL MODEL; VALIDATION STUDY;

ANIMALS; ANTS; LIKELIHOOD FUNCTIONS; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; POPULATION DYNAMICS; QUEENSLAND;

AUSTRALIA; BRISBANE; QUEENSLAND;

FORMICIDAE; SOLENOPSIS GEMINATA; SOLENOPSIS INVICTA;

EID: 77954345590     PISSN: 10510761     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1890/09-0838.1     Document Type: Article

References (31)

1. Box, G., and G. Tiao. 1973. Bayesian inference in statistical analysis. Addison-Wesley, Reading, Massachusetts, USA.
2. Broennimann, O., and A. Guisan. 2008. Predicting current and future biological invasions: both native and invaded ranges matter. Biology Letters 4:585-589.
3. Buchan, L. A. J., and D. K. Padilla. 1999. Estimating the probability of long-distance overland dispersal of invading aquatic species. Ecological Applications 9:254-265.
4. Elith, J., et al. 2006. Novel methods improve prediction of species' distributions from occurrence data. Ecography 29: 129-151.
5. Fleishman, E., R. Mac Nally, J. P. Fay, and D. D. Murphy. 2001. Modeling and predicting species occurrence using broad-scale environmental variables: an example with butterflies of the Great Basin. Conservation Biology 15: 1674-1685. (Pubitemid 34045731)
6. Hastings, A., et al. 2005. The spatial spread of invasions: new developments in theory and evidence. Ecology Letters 8:91-101. (Pubitemid 40172142)
7. Hooten, M. B., and C. K. Wikle. 2008. A. hierarchical Bayesian non-linear spatio-temporal model for the spread of invasive species with application to the Eurasian Collared Dove. Environmental and Ecological Statistics 15:59-70.
8. King, J. R., W. R. Tschinkel, and K. G. Ross. 2009. A. case study of human exacerbation of the invasive species problem.: transport and establishment of polygyne fire ants in Tallahassee, Florida, USA. Biological Invasions 11:373-377.
9. Leung, B., J. M. Drake, and D. M. Lodge. 2004. Predicting invasions: propagule pressure and the gravity of Allee effects. Ecology 85:1651-1660. (Pubitemid 39188159)
10. Lindenmayer, D. B., and H. P. Possingham. 1996. Ranking conservation and timber management options for Leadbeater's possum in southeastern Australia using population viability analysis. Conservation Biology 10:235-251. (Pubitemid 2622979)
11. Lowe, S., M. Browne, S. Boudjelas, and M. De Poorter. 2000. 100 of the world's worst invasive alien species: a selection from the Global Invasive Species Database. International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources, Gland, Switzerland.
12. Mack, R. N., D. Simberloff, W. M. Lonsdale, H. Evans, M. Clout, and F. A. Bazzaz. 2000. Biotic invasions: causes, epidemiology, global consequences, and control. Ecological Applications 10:689-710.
13. Mac Nally, R., and E. Fleishman. 2004. A successful predictive model of species richness using 'indicator' species. Conservation Biology 18:646-654.
14. Macom, T. E., and S. D. Porter. 1996. Comparison of polygyne and monogyne red imported fire ant (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) population densities. Annals of the Entomological Society of America 89:535-543.
15. Morrill, W. L. 1974. Dispersal of red imported fire ants by water. Florida Entomologist 57:39-42.
16. Morrison, L. W., S. D. Porter, E. Daniels, and M. D. Korzukhin. 2004. Potential global range expansion of the invasive fire ant, Solenopsis invicta. Biological Invasions 6: 183-191.
17. Peterson, A. T. 2003. Predicting the geography of species' invasions via ecological niche modeling. Quarterly Review of Biology 78:419-433.
18. Phillips, S. J., and M. Dudik. 2008. Modeling of species distributions with Maxent: new extensions and comprehensive evaluation. Ecography 31:161-175.
19. Robert, C., and G. Casella. 1999. Monte Carlo statistical methods. Springer-Verlag, New York, New York, USA.
20. Ross, K. G., and L. Keller. 1995. Ecology and evolution of social organization: insights from fire ants and other highly eusocial insects. Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 26:631-656. (Pubitemid 3019642)
21. Ross, K. G., E. L. Vargo, and L. Keller. 1996. Social evolution in a new environment: the case of introduced fire ants. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 93: 3021-3025.
22. Royle, J. A., M. Kéry, R. Gautier, and H. Schmid. 2007. Hierarchical spatial models of abundance and occurrence from imperfect survey data. Ecological Monographs 77:465-481.
23. Schwarz, G. 1978. Estimating the dimension of a model. Annals of Statistics 6:461-464.
24. Simberloff, D. 2009. We can eliminate invasions or live with them: successful management projects. Biological Invasions 11:149-157.
25. Suarez, A. V., D. A. Holway, and T. J. Case. 2001. Patterns of spread in biological invasions dominated by long-distance jump dispersal: insights from Argentine ants. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 98:1095-1100.
26. Thomson, J. R., A. Moilanen, P. Vesk, A. F. Bennett, and R. Mac Nally. 2009. Where and when to revegetate: a quantitative method for scheduling landscape reconstruction. Ecological Applications 19:817-828.
27. van Jaarsveld, A. S., S. Freitag, S. L. Chown, C. Muller, S. Koch, H. Hull, C. Bellamy, M. Krüger, S. Enrödy-Younga, M. W. Mansell, and C. H. Scholtz. 1998. Biodiversity assessment and conservation strategies. Science 279:2106-2108.
28. Veitch, C., and M. Clout. 2002. Turning the tide: the eradication of invasive species. International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources, Gland, Switzerland.
29. Wallace, C. S. 2005. Statistical and inductive inference by minimum message length. Springer-Verlag, New York, New York, USA.
30. Wallace, C. S., and D. L. Dowe. 2000. MML clustering of multi-state, Poisson, von Mises circular and Gaussian distributions. Statistics and Computing 10:73-83.
31. Wiens, J. A., J. T. Rotenberry, and B. Van Home. 1987. Habitat occupancy patterns of North American shrubsteppe birds: the effects of spatial scale. Oikos 48:132-147.