Understanding random effects in group-based trajectory modeling: An application of Moffitt's developmental taxonomy

Journal of Drug Issues

Volumn 40, Issue 1, 2010, Pages 195-220

  Saunders, Jessica M ^a  

^a RAND CORPORATION   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 77952815568     PISSN: 00220426     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1177/002204261004000111     Document Type: Article

References (53)

1. Akaike, H. 1987 Factor analysis and AIC. Psychometrika, 52, 317-332.
2. Bandeen-Roche, K., Miglioretti, D. L., & Rathouz, P. J. 1997 Latent variable regression for multiple discrete outcomes. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 92, 1375-1386.
3. Brame, R., Nagin, D. S., & Tremblay, R. E. 2001 Developmental trajectories of physical aggression from school entry to late adolescence. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry, 42, 503-512.
4. Broidy L. M., Nagin, D. S., Tremblay, R. E., Bates, J. E., Brame, R., Dodge, K. A., Fergusson, D. M., Horwood, J. L., Laird, R., Lynam, D. R., Moffitt, T. E., Petit, G. S., & Vitaro, F. 2003 Developmental trajectories of childhood disruptive behaviors and adolescent delinquency: A six-site, cross-national study. Developmental Psychology, 39, 222-245.
5. Bushway, S. D., Thornberry, T., & Krohn, M. D. 2003 Desistence as a developmental process: A comparison of static and dynamic approaches. Journal of Quantitative Criminology 19, 289-297.
6. Chung, I. J., Hill, K. G., Hawking, D., & Gilchrist, L. D. 2002 Childhood predictors of offense trajectories. Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency 39, 60-90.
7. D'Unger, A. V., Land, K. C., McCall, P. L., & Nagin, D. S. 1998 How many latent classes of delinquent/criminal careers? Results from mixed poisson regression analysis of the London, Philadelphia, and Racine Cohort Studies. American Journal of Sociology 103, 1593-1630.
8. Furr-Holden, D. D., Ialongo, N. S., Anthony, J. C., Petras, H., & Kellam, S. 2004 Developmentally inspired drug prevention: Middle school outcomes in a school-based randomized prevention trail. American Journal of Community Psychology, 27, 599-641.
9. Gillmore, A. A., Hawking, J. D., Catalano, R. F., Day, L. E., Moore, M., & Abbott, R. 1991 Structure of problem behaviors in preadolescence. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 59 (4), 499-506.
10. Hawking, J. D., Herrenkohl, T. I, Farrington, D. P., Brewer, D., Catalano, R. F., Harachi, T. W., & Cothern, L. 2000 Predictors of youth violence. Washington, DC: Office of Juvenile Justice and Delinquency Prevention. NCJ 179065.
11. Ialongo, N. S., Werthamer, L., Kellam, S. G., Brown, C. H., Wang, S., & Lin, Y. 1999 Proximal impact of two first-grade preventive interventions on the early risk behaviors for later substance abuse, depression, and antisocial behavior. Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 66, 51-60.
12. Jones, R., & Nagin, D. S. 2007 Advances in group-based trajectory modeling and a SAS procedure for estimating them. Sociological Methods Research, 35, 542-571.
13. Jones, R., Nagin, D. S., & Roeder, K. 2001 A SAS procedure based on mixture models for estimating developmental trajectories. Sociological Research and Methods, 29, 374-393.
14. Kellam, S. G., Rebok, G. W., Ialongo, N., & Mayer, L. S. 1994 The course and malleability of aggressive behavior from early first grade into middle school: Results of a developmental epidemiologically-based preventive trial. Journal of Child Psychological, Psychiatry, and Allied Disciplines, 35, 259-281.
15. Kreuter, F, & Muthén, B. 2007 Longitudinal modeling of population heterogeneity: Methodological challenges to the analysis of empirically derived criminal trajectory profiles. In G. R. Hancock & K. M. Samuelsen (Eds.), Advances in latent variable mixture models. Charlotte, NC: Information Age Publishing, Inc.
16. Kreuter, F., & Muthén, B. 2008 Analyzing criminal trajectory profiles: Bridging multilevel and groupbased approaches using growth mixture modeling. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 24, 1-31.
17. Lambert, S. F., Ialongo, N. S., Boyd, R. C., & Cooley, M. R. 2005 Risk factors for community violence exposure in adolescence. American Journal of Community Psychology, 36, 29-48.
18. Lancourse, E., Nagin, D., Vitaro, F., Claes, M., & Tremblay, R. 2003 Developmental trajectories of boys' delinquent group membership and facilitation of violent behaviors during adolescence. Developmental and Psychopathology, 15, 228-240.
19. Laub, J. H., Nagin, D. S., & Sampson, R. J. 1998 Trajectories of change in criminal offending: Good marriages and the desistance process. American Sociological Review, 63, 225-238.
20. Lo, Y., Mendell, N. R., & Rubin, D. B. 2001 Testing the number of components in a normal mixture. Biometrika, 88, 767-778.
21. Loeber, R. 1982 The stability of antisocial and delinquent child behavior: A review. Child Development, 53, 1431-1446.
22. Loeber, R. 1990 Development and risk factors of juvenile antisocial behavior and delinquency. Child Psychology Review, 10, 1-41.
23. Loeber, R. 1991 Antisocial behavior: More enduring than changeable? Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, 30, 393-397.
24. Maughan, B., Pickles, A., Rowe, R., Costello, E. J., & Angold, A. 2000 Developmental trajectories of aggressive and non-aggressive conduct problems. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 16, 199-221.
25. McLachlan, G., & Peel, D. 2000 Finite mixture models. New York: John Wiley & Sons.
26. Moffitt, T. E. 1993 Adolescence-limited and life-course-persistent antisocial behavior: A developmental taxonomy. Psychological Review, 100, 674-701.
27. Muthén, B. 1989 Latent variables modeling in heterogeneous populations. Psychometrika, 54, 557-585.
28. Muthén, B., Brown, C. H., Masyn, K., Jo, B., Khoo, ST., Yang, C. C., Wang, C. P., Kellam, S., Carlin, J., & Liao, J. 2002 General growth mixture modeling for randomized preventive interventions. Biostatistics, 3, 459-475.
29. rd ed.). Los Angeles, CA: Muthén & Muthén.
30. Nagin, D. S. 2005 Group-based modeling of development. Cambridge, MA: University Press.
31. Nagin, D. S., Farrington, D., & Moffitt, T. E. 1995 Life-course trajectories of different types of offenders. Criminology, 33, 111-139.
32. Nagin, D. S., & Land, K. C. 1993 Age, criminal careers, and population heterogeneity: Specification and estimation of a nonparametric, Mixed Poisson Model. Criminology, 31, 327-362.
33. Nagin, D. S., Pagani, L., Tremblay, R., & Vitaro, F. 2003 Life course turning points: A case study of the effects of school failure on interpersonal violence. Development and Psychopathology, 15, 343-361.
34. Nagin, D. S., & Tremblay, R. E. 1999 Trajectories of boys' physical aggression, opposition, and hyperactivity on the path to physically violent and nonviolent juvenile delinquency. Child Developmental, 70, 1181-1196.
35. Nagin, D. S., & Tremblay, R. E. 2001 Analyzing developmental trajectories of distinct but related behaviors: A group-based method. Psychological Methods, 6, 18-34.
36. Nagin, D. S., & Tremblay, R. E. 2005a What has been learned from group-based trajectory modeling? Examples from physical aggression and other problem behaviors. Annals, AAPSS, 602, 82-117.
37. Nagin, D. S., & Tremblay, R. E. 2005b Developmental trajectory groups: Fact or a useful statistical fiction? Criminology, 43, 873-904.
38. Nylund, K. L., Asparouhov, A., & Muthén, B. 2007 Deciding on the number of classes in latent class analysis and growth mixture modeling: A Monte Carlo study. Structural Equation Modeling, 14, 535-569.
39. Odgers, C. L., Moffitt, T. E., Broadbent, J. M., Dickson, N., Hancox, R. J., Harrington, H., Poulton, R., Sears, M. R., Thomson, W. M., & Caspi, A. 2008 Female and male antisocial trajectories: From childhood origins to adult outcomes. Development and Psychopathology, 20, 673-716.
40. Patterson, G. R. 1996 Some characteristics of a developmental theory for early-onset delinquency. In M. F. Lenzenweger & J. J. Haugaard (Eds.), Frontiers of developmental psychopathology (pp. 81-124). New York: Oxford University Press.
41. Piquero, A. R. 2008 Taking stock of developmental trajectories of criminal activity over the life-course. In A. Liberman (Ed.), The long view of crime: A synthesis of longitudinal research (pp. 23-78). New York: Springer.
42. Piquero, A. R., Brame, R., Mazerolle, P., & Haapanen, R. 2002 Crime in emerging adulthood. Criminology, 40, 137-169.
43. Raudenbush, S. W. 2005 How do we study "What happens next"? The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 602, 131-144.
44. Sampson, R. J. 2006 Collective Efficacy Theory: Lessons learned and directions for future inquiry. In F. T. Cullen, J. P. Wright, & K. R. Blevins (Eds.), Taking stock: The status of criminological theory, Advances in criminological theory (pp. 147-167). New York: Transaction Publishers.
45. Sampson, R. J., & Laub, J. H. 2003 Life-course desisters? Trajectories of crime among delinquent boys followed to age 70. Criminology, 41, 555-592.
46. Slade, E. P., Stuart, E. A., Salkever, D. S., Karakus, M., Green, K. M., & Ialongo, N. 2008 Impacts of age of onset of substance use disorders on risk of adult incarceration among disadvantaged urban youth: A propensity score matching approach. Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 95, 1-13.
47. Stoolmiller, M. 2001 Synergistic interaction of child manageability problems and parentdiscipline tactics in predicting future growth in externalizing behavior for boys. Developmental Psychology, 37, 814-825.
48. Stoolmiller, C. M., Petras, H., Ialongo, N., Masyn, K. E., Hubbard, S., Poduska, J., & Kellam, S. 2005 A comparison of girls' and boys' aggressive-disruptive behavior trajectories across elementary school: Prediction to youth adult antisocial outcomes. Journal of Consulting & Clinical Psychology, 74, 500-510.
49. Storr, C. L., Ialongo, N. S., Kellam, S. G., & Anthony, J. C. 2002 A randomized controlled trial of two primary school intervention strategies to prevent early onset tobacco smoking. Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 73, 149-158.
50. Tremblay, R. E., Nagin, D., Seguin, J., Zoccolillo, M., Zelazo, P., Boivin, M., Perusse, D., & Japel, C. 2004 Physical aggression during early childhood: Trajectories and predictors. Pediatrics, 114, 43-50.
51. van Lier, P. A. C., Muthén, B., van der Sar, R. M., & Crijnen, A. A. M. 2004 Preventing disruptive behavior in elementary schoolchildren: Impact of a universal classroom-based intervention. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 72, 467-478.
52. Weakliem, D. L. 1999 A critique of Bayesian Information Criterion for model selection. Sociological Methods and Research, 27, 359-197.
53. Werthamer-Larsson, L., Kellam, S. G., & Wheeler, L. 1991 Effects of first-grade classroom environment on child shy behavior, aggressive behavior, and concentration problems. American Journal of Community Psychology, 19, 585-602.