A quantitative assessment of the risk for highly pathogenic avian influenza introduction into spain via legal trade of live poultry

Risk Analysis

Volumn 30, Issue 5, 2010, Pages 798-807

  Sánchez Vizcaíno, Fernando ^a   Perez, Andrés ^b,c   Lainez, Manuel ^a   Sánchez Vizcaíno, José Manuel ^d  

^a INSTITUTO VALENCIANO DE INVESTIGACIONES AGRARIAS IVIA   (Spain)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^c Facultad de Ciencias Naturales e Instituto M Lillo   (Argentina)

^d UNIVERSIDAD COMPLUTENSE DE MADRID   (Spain)

Author keywords

Avian influenza; Live poultry; Risk assessment; Spain; Trade

Indexed keywords

ANNUAL MEAN; AVIAN INFLUENZA; EUROPEAN UNION; GEOGRAPHICAL VARIATIONS; MEMBER STATE; POULTRY SPECIES; QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENTS; RELATIVE CONTRIBUTION; TRADE POLICIES;

INTERNATIONAL TRADE; RISK MANAGEMENT; RISK PERCEPTION; VIRUSES;

RISK ASSESSMENT;

AVIAN INFLUENZA; DISEASE SPREAD; EPIDEMIC; EUROPEAN UNION; EXPORT; GEOGRAPHICAL VARIATION; POULTRY; QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS; RISK ASSESSMENT; TRADE POLICY; VIRUS;

ANIMAL; ARTICLE; AVIAN INFLUENZA; COMMERCIAL PHENOMENA; POULTRY; RISK ASSESSMENT; SPAIN; INFLUENZA IN BIRDS;

ANIMALS; COMMERCE; INFLUENZA IN BIRDS; POULTRY; RISK ASSESSMENT; SPAIN;

SPAIN;

AVES;

EID: 77952697437     PISSN: 02724332     EISSN: 15396924     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2009.01351.x     Document Type: Article

References (45)

1. Capua I, Marangon S, Selli L, Alexander DJ, Swayne DE, Pozza MD, Parenti E, Cancellotti FM. Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N2) in Italy during October 1997 to January 1998. Avian Pathology, 1999 28 (5 455 460.
2. Xu X, Subbarao K, Cox NJ, Guo Y. Genetic characterization of the pathogenic influenza A/Goose/Guangdong/1/96 (H5N1) virus: similarity of its hemaglutinin gene to those of H5N1 viruses from the 1997 outbreaks in Hong Kong. Virology, 1999 261 (1 15 19.
3. Capua I, Marangon S. The avian influenza epidemic in Italy, 1999-2000: A review. Avian Pathology, 2000 29 (4 289 294.
4. Max V, Herrera J, Moreira R, Rojas H. Avian influenza in Chile: A successful experience. Avian Diseases, 2007 51 (1 Suppl 363 365.
5. Elbers ARW, Fabri THF, de Vries TS, de Wit JJ, Pijpers A, Koch G. The highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H7N7) virus epidemic in the Netherlands in 2003 - Lessons learned from the first five outbreaks. Avian Diseases, 2004 48 (3 691 705.
6. Bowes VA. After the outbreak: How the British Columbia commercial poultry industry recovered after H7N3 HPAI. Avian Diseases, 2007 51 (1 Suppl 313 316.
7. Tiensin T, Chaitaweesub P, Songserm T, Chaisingh A, Hoonsuwan W, Buranathai C, Parakamawongsa T, Premashthira S, Amonsin A, Gilbert M, Nielen M, Stegeman A. Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1, Thailand, 2004. Emerging Infectious Diseases, 2005 11 (11 1664 1672.
8. Thomas ME, Bouma A, Ekker HM, Fonken AJM, Stegeman JA, Nielen M. Risk factors for the introduction of high pathogenicity avian influenza virus into poultry farms during the epidemic in the Netherlands in 2003. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 2005 69 (1-2 1 11.
9. Kilpatrick AM, Chmura AA, Gibbons DW, Fleischer RC, Marra PP, Daszak P. Predicting the global spread of H5N1 avian influenza. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2006 103 (51 19368 19373.
10. Farnsworth ML, Ward MP. Identifying spatio-temporal patterns of transboundary disease spread: Examples using avian influenza H5N1 outbreaks. Veterinary Research, 2009 40 (3 20. Epub 2009 Feb 13.
11. Irvine RM, Banks J, Londt BZ, Lister SA, Manvell RJ, Outtrim L, Russell C, Cox WJ, Ceeraz V, Shell W, Landeg FJ, Wilesmith JW, Alexander DJ, Brown IH. Outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza caused by Asian lineage H5N1 virus in turkeys in Great Britain in January 2007. Veterinary Records, 2007 161 (3 100 101.
12. Smith GJ, Naipospos TS, Nguyen TD, de Jong MD, Vijaykrishna D, Usman TB, Hassan SS, Nguyen TV, Dao TV, Bui NA, Leung YH, Cheung CL, Rayner JM, Zhang JX, Zhang LJ, Poon LL, Li KS, Nguyen VC, Hien TT, Farrar J, Webster RG, Chen H, Peiris JS, Guan Y. Evolution and adaptation of H5N1 influenza virus in avian and human hosts in Indonesia and Vietnam. Virology, 2006 350 (2 258 268.
13. Wang J, Vijaykrishna D, Duan L, Bahl J, Zhang JX, Webster RG, Peiris JS, Chen H, Smith GJ, Guan Y. Identification of the progenitors of Indonesian and Vietnamese avian influenza A (H5N1) viruses from southern China. Journal of Virology, 2008 82 (7 3405 3414.
14. World Animal Health Information Database (WAHID) Interface. Available at : http://www.oie.int/wahis/public.php?page=home, Accessed on January 20, 2009.
15. Alexander DJ. Summary of avian influenza activity in Europe, Asia, Africa, and Australasia, 2002-2006. Avian Diseases, 2007 51 (1 Suppl 161 166.
16. Sabirovic M, Hall S, Wilesmith J, Grimley P, Coulson N, Landeg F. Assessment of the risk of introduction of H5N1 HPAI virus from affected countries to the U.K. Avian Diseases, 2007 51 (1 Suppl 340 343.
17. Serratosa J, Ribó O, Correia S, Pittman M. EFSA scientific risk assessment on animal health and welfare aspects of avian influenza (EFSA-Q-2004-075). Avian Diseases, 2007 51 (1 Suppl 501 503.
18. Miller L, McElvaine MD, McDowell RM, Ahl AS. Developing a quantitative risk assessment process. Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics), 1993 12 (4 1153 1164.
19. World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE). Handbook on Import Risk Analysis for Animals and Animal Products, Volume 2. Chapter 5 in OIE (eds). Probability Processes and Calculations.
20. Martínez-López B, Perez AM, De la Torre A, Sánchez-Vizcaíno Rodriguez JM. Quantitative risk assessment of foot-and-mouth disease introduction into Spain via importation of live animals. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 2008 86 (1-2 43 56.
21. Spanish Foreign Trade Statistics Database. Available at : http://customs.camaras.org/, Accessed on November 3, 2008.
22. TRAde Control and Expert System (TRACES). Available at : https://sanco.ec.europa.eu/traces/, Accessed on April 11, 2009.
23. Commission of the European Communities. 2007/590/EC: Commission Decision of 27 August 2007 on introducing preventive vaccination against highly pathogenic avian influenza and related provisions for movements in the Netherlands (notified under document number C(2007) 3977). Official Journal, 2007 L222 16 20.
24. Bos MEH, Van Boven M, Nielen M, Bouma A, Elbers ARW, Nodelijk G, Koch G, Stegeman A, De Jong MCM. Estimating the day of highly pathogenic avian influenza (H7N7) virus introduction into a poultry flock based on mortality data. Veterinary Research, 2007 38 (3 493 504.
25. Sharkey KJ, Bowers RG, Morgan KL, Robinson SE, Christley RM. Epidemiological consequences of an incursion of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza into the British poultry flock. Proceedings of the Royal Society B, 2008 275 (1630 19 28.
26. van den Berg T, Houdart P. Avian influenza outbreak management: Action at time of confirmation, depopulation and disposal methods; the "Belgian experience" during the H7N7 highly pathogenic avian influenza epidemic in 2003. Zoonoses Public Health, 2008 55 (1 54 64.
27. Busani L, Valsecchi MG, Rossi E, Toson M, Ferrè N, Pozza MD, Marangon S. Risk factors for highly pathogenic H7N1 avian influenza virus infection in poultry during the 1999-2000 epidemic in Italy. Veterinary Journal, 2009 181 (2 171 177.
28. World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE). Handistatus II. Available at : http://www.oie.int/hs2/report.asp?lang=en, Accessed on October 7, 2008.
29. Department of Medicine and Epidemiology
30. World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE). Handbook on Import Risk Analysis for Animals and Animal Products, Volume 2. Chapter 4 in OIE (eds). Useful Probability Distributions.
31. Vose DJ. Risk analysis in relation to the importation and exportation of animal products. Revue scientifique et technique (International Office of Epizootics), 1997 16 (1 17 29.
32. Agreste. Publications [in French]. Available at : http://www.agreste. agriculture.gouv.fr/IMG/File/resultat201.pdf, Accessed on January 6, 2009.
33. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA). Agricultural Survey Data. Available at : http://www.defra.gov.uk/esg/work-htm/publications/ cs/farmstats-web/2-SURVEY-DATA-SEARCH/COMPLETE-DATASETS/regional-level-datasets. htm, Accessed on January 22, 2009.
34. Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Consumer Protection (BMELV). Available at : http://www.bmelv.de/cln-045/nn-757134/EN/05-Agriculture/ FarminginGermany.html-nnn=true#doc1234260bodyText7, Accessed on November 10, 2008.
35. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Statistical Databases and Data-Sets. Available at : http://www.fao.org/es/ess/ census/default.asp, Accessed on January 12, 2009.
36. Hungarian Central Statistical Office (KSH). Agricultural long time series and censuses. Available at : http://portal.ksh.hu/portal/page?-pageid=38, 569312&-dad=portal&-schema=PORTAL, Accessed on January 22, 2009.
37. Institut National de Statistique (INS). Recensement agricole [in French]. Available at : http://statbel.fgov.be/pub/home-fr.asp#5, Accessed on January 16, 2009.
38. Statistics Netherlands (CBS). StatLine database. Available at : http://statline.cbs.nl/StatWeb/dome/?LA=en, Accessed on January 14, 2009.
39. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). Statistical Database (FAOSTAT). Available at : http://faostat.fao.org/site/339/ default.aspx, Accessed on October 10, 2008.
40. Sturm-Ramirez KM, Hulse-Post DJ, Govorkova EA, Humberd J, Seiler P, Puthavathana P, Buranathai C, Nguyen TD, Chaisingh A, Long HT, Naipospos TSP, Chen H, Ellis TM, Guan Y, Peiris JSM, Webster RG. Are ducks contributing to the endemicity of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus in Asia? Journal of Virology, 2005 79 (17 11269 11279. (Pubitemid 41170669)
41. Webster RG, Guan Y, Peiris M, Walker D, Krauss S, Zhou NN, Govorkova EA, Ellis TM, Dyrting KC, Sit T, Perez DR, Shortridge KF. Characterization of H5N1 influenza viruses that continue to circulate in geese in southeastern China. Journal of Virology, 2002 76 (1 118 126.
42. Vecerek V, Grbalova S, Voslarova E, Janackova B, Malena M. Effects of travel distance and the season of the year on death rates of broilers transported to poultry processing plants. Poultry Science, 2006 85 (11 1881 1884.
43. Warriss PD, Bevis EA, Brown SN, Edwards JE. Longer journeys to processing plants are associated with higher mortality in broiler chickens. British Poultry Science, 1992 33 (1 201 206.
44. Voslárová E, Rubesová L, Vecerek V, Pisteková V, Malena M. Variation in the mortality rate of turkeys during transport to the slaughterhouse with travel distance and month [in German]. Berliner und Münchener tierärztliche Wochenschrift, 2006 119 (9-10 386 390.
45. Hulse-Post DJ, Sturm-Ramirez KM, Humberd J, Seiler P, Govorkova EA, Krauss S, Scholtissek C, Puthavathana P, Buranathai C, Nguyen TD, Long HT, Naipospos TSP, Chen H, Ellis TM, Guan Y, Peiris JSM, Webster RG. Role of domestic ducks in the propagation and biological evolution of highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza viruses in Asia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2005 102 (30 10682 10687.